Blue Jays-Dodgers World Series Game 5: Score Early and Score Often

With the series tied 2-2 and the Blue Jays playing their final road game of the year, every play and every pitch was magnified. For this recap, we’ll be going inning by inning, looking at the key plays and how Toronto's win probability changed as the game went on.

First inning - Blue Jays Win Probability: 70.1%
What a start! With the Dodgers sending lefty Blake Snell to the mound, the Jays countered the same way they did in Game 1, with Davis Schneider. The absence (but availability to pinch hit or run) of George Springer meant that Schneider would lead off the game. First pitch was 5:10 pm at Dodger Stadium. It was still 5:10 pm when Toronto went up 1-0. Schneider sent the first pitch he saw 373 feet over the wall and just short of the first row of seats (+9.8% WPA).

Next up was Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who waited until the second pitch of his at-bat to one-up Schneider. Vladdy sent his pitch in the same direction but 21 feet further for his eighth home run of the playoffs (+9.1% WPA) and the Jays’ second of the game. In a postseason that seems to be full of firsts and records, this added another one. It was the first time in history that a World Series game led off with back-to-back home runs. It also moved Guerrero into sole possession of second all-time for hits in a single postseason with 27 (two back of Randy Arozarena in 2020).

Trey Yesavage did his part in the bottom half, retiring the side in order. He got Shohei Ohtani to chop one back to the mound, Will Smith to fly out, and his first strikeout of the game, retiring Mookie Betts.

Second inning - Blue Jays Win Probability: 71.5%
Addison Barger got the only Jays hit this inning, showing once again that maybe he can start regularly against lefties.

Yesavage added 5.3% WPA on his own, striking out the side in order. Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernández and Tommy Edman each went down swinging on nasty breaking pitches (two splitters, one slider).

Third inning - Blue Jays Win Probability: 62.5%
Yesavage picked up where he left off, striking out Max Muncy to start the inning, marking his fifth K in a row. Kiké Hernández would end the streak with his first home run of the playoffs (-11% WPA), cutting the Jays' lead to 2-1. A deep fly out by Alex Call would bring Ohtani to the plate with two outs and the bases empty. It was only the third inning, but surely the intentional walk had to be on Toronto’s mind. Instead, Yesavage would pitch to him… and log his sixth strikeout of the game.

Fourth inning - Blue Jays Win Probability: 75.5%
Daulton Varsho would lead off the fourth and pull a curveball up the right field line. A hard-charging Teoscar Hernández had to make a decision to play it on the bounce or lay out to attempt the catch and ended up somewhere in between, allowing the ball to get by him and into the right field corner. Varsho would be held at third base with a stand-up triple (+9.6 WPA). Ernie Clement would bring Varsho home on a sacrifice fly. 3-1 Jays.

Smith and Betts would start the bottom half of the inning off with a pair of strikeouts, bringing Yesavage’s total up to eight. It also brought him to 35 K's in the postseason – the most ever by a rookie. Freeman would get first base with a HBP on an 0-2 count and move up to second with a Teoscar single that Andrés Giménez got to but couldn’t corral enough to make an out. A well-timed mound visit by Kirk and a pop-out by Edman would get the Jays out of the inning and end the Dodger threat.

Fifth inning - Blue Jays Win Probability: 78.3%
It was a quiet top half of the inning, with Guerrero grounding into a double play after Schneider started the inning with a walk. Bo Bichette then lined out to centre. Snell’s pitch count sat at 78.

Yesavage starts the bottom half of the inning with his 63rd pitch and the Dodgers' 7-8-9 hitters due up. A Muncy groundout and swinging strikeouts for Kiké Hernández and Call brought Yesavage’s total to 10 and included one for every Dodger in the lineup (and two for Betts). 

Sixth inning - Blue Jays Win Probability: 81.9%
Another quiet top half with outs for Kirk, Varsho and Clement.

Yesavage would start the sixth with Ohtani and the third time through the order. An incredible catch from Barger would retire Ohtani for the third time. Smith notched his second strikeout of the game and gave Yesavage a share of the record for most K's in a playoff game by a rookie (11).

Seventh inning - Blue Jays Win Probability: 96.5%
A Blue Jays playoff seventh inning? Time to put the Dodgers in the blender. Barger, fresh off of his diving catch, got things started with a single. A Blake Snell wild pitch would allow Barger to take second. An Isiah Kiner-Falefa groundout and a Giménez walk would put two on with one out. Another Snell wild pitch allowed Barger to take third, and then, with his 116th pitch, he struck out Davis Schneider and ended his day.

Edgardo Henriquez would come in to face Guerrero and throw the third wild pitch of the inning, concurrently walking Vladdy and allowing Barger to score (+7.1% WPA). Bichette would keep the line moving with a single to right field, scoring Giménez. 5-1 Jays.

Yesavage came back out for the bottom of the seventh and started by striking out Freeman. That gave Yesavage his 12th strikeout and sole possession of the single-game rookie record. A Teoscar Hernández single set Edman up for an inning-ending GIDP. Yesavage came off the mound to a mob of congratulations in the dugout, signaling the end of his day. With that, he also became the first pitcher in playoff history to record 12+ strikeouts without issuing a walk (on 104 pitches).

Eighth inning - Blue Jays Win Probability: 99.4%
Clement just keeps hitting. He started the inning off with a single, extending his hit streak to 11 games and leaving him one away from tying Pat Borders for the franchise record. Anthony Banda would add his name to the wild pitch column and allow Clement to take second, and a Barger groundout would move him to third. Then IKF would (finally) get his first hit of the series and an RBI with Clement crossing the plate.

Seranthony Domínguez would get the bottom of the eighth and generate groundouts from Muncy and Ohtani to go along with a strikeout of Kiké Hernández, sending things to the final frame. Ohtani reached base nine fewer times than he did in Game 3.

Ninth inning - Blue Jays Win Probability: 100%
Noted shitbag Blake Treinen got Vladdy, Bichette and Kirk out on back-to-back-to-back groundouts. But it didn't matter. Three outs to go.

Jeff Hoffman came in to get those three outs. Smith started things off with a single to defensive replacement Myles Straw. Straw would record the first out on a Betts flyout. Hoffman would get the final two outs on his own with K’s of Freeman and Teoscar. 6-1 Birds.

Toronto will now fly home and prep for Game 6 at Rogers Centre on Halloween night. Kevin Gausman and Yoshinobu Yamamoto will face off in a rematch of Game 2. Yamamoto was almost perfect the last time the Jays saw him, and he will have to be again if the Dodgers hope to stop the Blue Jays from becoming World Series champions.