Article: One Game To Make History: It's Time for Game 7

[Jesse Burrill]

Winner-take-all, do-or-die, Game 7. No matter which phrase you use, it all means one thing: a single game to decide the fate of two franchises. Win the game, and the Blue Jays will be American League champions and will be in the World Series for the first time in 32 years. But if they lose, their fate becomes the same as 27 other teams in baseball, heading home early, knowing just how close things were, but that it ultimately wasn’t enough.

The Blue Jays have set themselves up well to be in this position. After a grueling 162-game season to clinch the division on the final day, then beating their AL East rival New York Yankees in four games to win the Division Series, the Blue Jays found themselves in a place they had only seen twice since their World Series runs: the American League Championship Series.

The 2015 team put up a valiant effort, but couldn't find a way to win in Kansas City and lost to the Royals in six games. The 2016 team came off a sweep of the Rangers but ran into Andrew Miller, Francisco Lindor, and others, and was sent home after just five games.

In 2025, things feel a little different. After losing the first two games at home with their ace Kevin Gausman and rookie sensation Trey Yesavage on the mound, it was starting to feel like déjà vu all over again, but this Blue Jays team is different. They’ve been able to handle adversity all season, from dealing with injuries to multiple key players throughout the year, to being able to still pick up wins even in games when they fell behind, to battling through inconsistencies in their bullpen, it hasn't mattered.

The Blue Jays marched into Seattle with a mission, and that was to get the series back to Toronto any way possible. They pulled it off. The Jays used five home runs and a stellar start from Shane Bieber to win Game 3, while Mad Max Scherzer turned back the clock and Andrés Giménez had four RBI to get them back to even in the series. After the bullpen's shake-up in a Game 5 loss, the Blue Jays were able to head back home.

Game 6 was electric. Yesavage, with the help of some key double plays, was able to hold the Mariners to two runs while pitching into the sixth inning. Louis Varland and Jeff Hoffman combined to finish out the game. Pair that with home runs from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Addison Barger, and the Blue Jays did the impossible, just like they've been doing all season. They avoided elimination and forced a Game 7.

Neither the Blue Jays nor the Mariners have much history in Game 7’s. Seattle has never played in one, and the Blue Jays did just once, a 6-2 loss to the Kansas City Royals in the Blue Jays' first-ever postseason series in 1985. The good news is that history suggests that the advantage may be in the Blue Jays' favour.

Here is a stat dug out by the great Sarah Langs that says, “In best-of-seven series with the current 2-3-2 format, teams that have won Game 6 at home to force a Game 7 (also at home), have won that series 20 of 33 times (60.6%), including 14 of 18 times since 1985 (77.8%).”

Small sample size galore, and a 77.8% success rate is not 100%, but it does say something about momentum, and right now, that's exactly what the Blue Jays have.

Playing at home is always an advantage. The home team wins roughly 54% of the time, and the Blue Jays will get that advantage here. They’ve clearly earned it for how well they’ve played in the regular season. The Blue Jays have to feel like they’ve got the Mariners right where they want them; the Jays won 67% of their home games this season, (54-27), and no matter which number you choose to believe, 54%, 67% or 77.8%, all of those numbers state that the Blue Jays should have an advantage in Game 7.

There’s more to this, too. Langs also found this stat: In each of the four previous seasons in which one LCS was a sweep and the other series went seven games (1988, 2006, 2007, 2012), the team that won Game 7 also ended up winning the World Series.

Now, how’s that for excitement?

There’s a quote from former manager Earl Weaver that states momentum is just the next day's starting pitcher. The Blue Jays will turn to Shane Bieber, who will look to keep momentum going, but you could argue that Bieber has been a momentum killer this postseason, The Blue Jays won their first two games in New York, but then Bieber couldn’t get through three innings in the lone game the Yankees won in ALDS. Then, he was able to stop Seattle’s momentum by firing six quality innings and striking out eight in Game 3 to get the Blue Jays their first ALCS win. Bieber was Toronto's prime acquisition at this year's trade deadline, but Khal Stephen could turn into a first ballot Hall of Famer, and if Bieber can keep the momentum rolling, earn this win and get the Blue Jays into the World Series, then it won't matter, and it may turn into one of the best trades the Blue Jays have ever made.

Baseball is a crazy game, especially the fact that after a 162-game season that spans from late March all the way into September, it can all come down to one game, one swing of the bat, or one well-executed pitch at the right time. But weirdly, the Blue Jays are well-suited for that sort of chaos. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. says he's ready, and that's got to be a scary sound for the Mariners to hear.

On Monday night, the Blue Jays will get their chance to do the impossible: win just one game, and send themselves to the World Series for the first time in 32 seasons. Whether or not momentum or history is on their side, it's going to be a historic day for the Toronto Blue Jays one way or another. 

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If the Jays lose...

 

 

I hope they don't, but if the Jays lose tonight, instead of "let's go blue jays" the chant at the end of the game should be "THANK YOU blue jays". And the crowd should keep it going until the players come back out onto the field. It would be a great end to a great season. Still, I'd rather they just win.

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