Blue Jays-Mariners Game 5: Decisions, Decisions

This was a tight game that was blown open in the bottom of the eighth. We’re going to go back to looking at Win Probability Added (WPA) chronologically and highlight the plays that made for the largest swings.

Bottom of the Second: Eugenio Suárez hits a solo home run (-12.2% WPA) - 1-0 Seattle
The only mistake that Kevin Gausman was punished by over his almost six innings of work. Gausman produced a line of 5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K. He had 15 whiffs and put up an almost identical performance to what he did in Game 1 of this series. This time, he took a no-decision rather than the loss, but we can’t fault Gausman; he had a cumulative WPA of 15%.

Top of the Third: Andrés Giménez hits into a double play (-11.8% WPA) - 1-0 Seattle
In Games 3 and 4, the Jays came to bat in the top of the third trailing. In both games, the #8 hitter led off the third with a double and was followed by a Giménez two-run home run to erase the Seattle lead. In Game 5, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, the #8 hitter, led off with a double. Everyone watching couldn’t help but wonder if Giménez could spark the Jays three days in a row. Instead, what happened was a sharply hit line drive to the first baseman. IKF had taken a couple of steps toward third on contact and was unable to get back to his base before being doubled off. The first gut punch of the night.

Top of the Fourth: Ernie Clement hits into a double play with the bases loaded (-19.7% WPA) - 1-0 Seattle
The inning started out with so much promise: a double from Nathan Lukes (+8.2% WPA), an intentional walk to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+4.4% WPA) and a walk to Alejandro Kirk (+10.4% WPA) to load the bases with none out. A strikeout from Daulton Varsho (-9.2% WPA) was followed by a double play I’ve never seen before. Clement hit what could have been a chopper that would have made for an awkward attempt at a force play. Instead, the ball just died immediately in front of the plate – so close to the plate that Cal Raleigh got the force out at home just by picking the ball up. The toss to first completed the double play and ended the inning. 

Top of the Fifth: George Springer hits an RBI double (+15.9% WPA) - Tie game 1-1
The Jays chased starter Bryce Miller from the game and were able to capitalize against the Mariners' bullpen. Springer, who leads the playoffs in runs scored, cashed in Addison Barger to tie the game. Later in the game, Springer would take a pitch directly off of his knee and need to leave the game. Post-game, it was announced that initial X-rays were negative, but we're still waiting on his full evaluation, and whether he's available for Sunday is still to be seen.

Top of the Sixth: Alejandro Kirk scores from second on a single (+16.9% WPA) - 2-1 Toronto
Kirk led the inning off with a double (+9.8% WPA), and then, on a Clement single, he got the wave to go home. Maybe Dominic Canzone figured there was no way Kirk would risk a play at the plate, and then, when he realized he had to make the throw, he rushed it and sent it halfway up the third base line. Maybe it was just meant to be.

Bottom of the Sixth and Bottom of the Seventh: Louis Varland (+14% WPA) - 2-1 Toronto
Varland was the first man out of the ‘pen. He came into the game with a runner on first and walked the first batter he faced to put two on with two out. He would induce a grounder to end the inning. He would then retire the side in order for the seventh with two swinging strikeouts. 

Bottom of the Eighth: Cal Raleigh hits a solo home run (-32.3% WPA) - Tie game 2-2
The next guy out of the ‘pen was Brendon Little. The lefty forced Raleigh to turn around and bat from the right side of the plate, something he had yet to do in this series. The gamble did not pay off, and Raleigh hit the ball as high as the Space Needle with just enough carry to evade the outstretched glove of Myles Straw at the wall.

Bottom of the Eighth: Eugenio Suárez hits a grand slam (-11.7% WPA) - 6-2 Seattle
Little followed up the homer to Raleigh by walking Jorge Polanco (-6.5% WPA) and Josh Naylor (-9.4% WPA) and then being lifted from the game. Little faced three batters and was responsible for -48% WPA. He was replaced with Seranthony Domínguez, who promptly hit the first batter he faced (Randy Arozarena) to load the bases. Then, on a 2-2 count, mirroring the score, he gave up the grand slam. Game (all but) over.

Okay, so let’s talk about the bullpen move. It’s easy to armchair manage with the power of hindsight, but the move to bring in Little was questioned during the broadcast ahead of it happening by both Dan and Buck in the booth and the crew back at Sportsnet Studios. You’ll just have to trust that I was saying the same thing at home. That should be an easy thing to believe in, because I think most people watching had the same thought. I’m hardly the biggest Jeff Hoffman booster, but seeing how effective and efficient he was against the top of Seattle's lineup yesterday, I would have been happy to see him. Domínguez and Hoffman are arguably Toronto’s 1 and 1A bullpen arms for leverage situations. Either one of them coming in to start a clean inning would have made sense. Maybe it wouldn’t have worked out, but at least we could say that John Schneider made the right call, or at least a defensible one.

When asked after the game about the move, Schneider stated a desire to show the Seattle batters some new looks, noting that Raleigh had batted left all series and had already seen Hoffman once. On the face of it, that seems like maybe a legit argument. BUT! If that was part of the game plan and the way the pitchers would be deployed through the series, why would the Jays burn both Hoffman and Domínguez against the top of the Mariners' order with a six-run lead the day before? The Jays' bats had been hot the last two games, so maybe Schneider was hoping that would continue, but with a repeat of the Game 1 starters and considering the way that game went, Game 5 always felt like it would be a tight one. 

Now, the series moves back to Toronto with one game guaranteed and the Blue Jays hoping to force a second. Trey Yesavage will get the ball for Game 6, and the Jays will need to stay one step ahead of the Mariners if they don’t want the offseason to start on Monday.