Article: The Blue Jays’ ALCS Fate Will Be Decided at Home, but Fans Can’t Rest Easy

[Bryan Jaeger]

Eugenio Suárez had been quiet this series, but he turned that around and had a career game on Friday night. The third baseman was 4-for-16 in the first four games with only one run knocked in. In Game 5, he hit a solo home run in the second inning, his first since Game 3 of the ALDS, to give the Mariners an early 1-0 lead. The Blue Jays would claw back and take a 2-1 lead going into the bottom of the eighth, where everything fell apart.

Momentum shifted as the Mariners scored five runs off a Cal Raleigh solo moonshot followed by Suárez's second home run of the game — this one a soul-crushing grand slam off Seranthony Domínguez. The Mariners now hold a 3-2 series lead with the series headed back to Toronto for Games 6 and 7, and a return home is less comforting for fans than they might have hoped.

The Toronto Blue Jays were a force at home during the regular season, with a 54-27 record. However, the Mariners took both Games 1 and 2 at the Rogers Centre in convincing fashion. The scores were 3-1 and 10-3, as the Blue Jays' offense struggled against the Mariners' pitching staff. In Game 1, Bryce Miller gave up a first-pitch homer to George Springer but then settled in, going six innings with two hits, one run, three walks, and three strikeouts.

In Game 2, although the Blue Jays knocked Logan Gilbert out after three innings and three earned runs, those were their only runs, as the Mariners' bullpen delivered six scoreless innings. Following their struggles at home, the Blue Jays' offense came alive at T-Mobile Park, as they won Games 3 and 4 by scores of 13-4 and 8-2, respectively.

Trey Yesavage has been named the starter for Game 6 against Gilbert. Yesavage struggled to control his splitter in Game 2, and the Mariners' discipline didn't help. They followed the "if it's low, let it go" mentality and crushed Yesavage's mistakes. That included Julio Rodriguez hitting a first-inning three-run home run. Yesavage will have a short leash tonight.

We may see Chris Bassitt follow Yesavage if the rookie can't go at least five innings and turn the game over to the higher-leverage arms in the bullpen. After being left off the ALDS roster due to a lingering lower back injury, Bassist threw 1 2/3 hitless innings in Game 2 with two strikeouts. However, Eric Lauer has thrown only one inning in the series, which came in Game 2. So, either could be a good long-relief option if Yesavage struggles early.

By and large, the Mariners have hit the Blue Jays' bullpen well. Bassitt, Lauer, and Jeff Hoffman are the only relievers who have yet to allow an earned run in the series. The bullpen has also allowed six home runs and 10 walks. Yariel Rodríguez has only retired three batters but gave up two home runs and walked three in two appearances, in Games 2 and 3.

If the Blue Jays' offense can get to Gilbert early, they will need to attack Seattle's relievers as they did in Games 3 and 4, when they scored 10 runs and hit three home runs. However, in their three losses, the Blue Jays only managed one run in 14 bullpen innings, indicating the challenge ahead.

The good news is that if the Blue Jays can win Game 6 tonight, they'll face George Kirby tomorrow, whom they scored eight runs against over four innings in Game 3. In that case, Toronto would throw Shane Bieber in Game 7. He was phenomenal in Game 3, going six innings with four hits, two earned runs (off a Rodríguez two-run first-inning home run), and eight strikeouts. The Blue Jays need to figure out a way to reach Game 7, where the pieces are laid out more in their favor.

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