Article: Blue Jays-Yankees ALDS Game Two: Is 12-0 the Most Dangerous Lead in Sports?

[Mike LeSage]

In our review of Game 1, we looked at the at-bats that generated at least a 10% swing in win probability. If we went that route for Game 2, this would be a real short read. There was only one AB in the whole game that crossed that threshold. That was Ernie Clement’s two-run home run in the second inning. After Daulton Varsho’s ‘triple’ (scored a double with an error) increased the Jays' chance of winning by 9.8%, Clement’s homer furthered that advantage by 10.4%. By the end of the third inning, the Jays' win probability was over 90% and would remain above 90% for the duration of the game.

By the time the Yankees were roughing up Tommy Nance in the seventh inning, from a probability standpoint, they could not afford to trade outs for runs. This meant that a play like Cody Bellinger’s sacrifice fly, which scored Paul Goldschmidt, was actually scored as improving the Jays' chances of winning. In a four-batter span, the Yankees added five runs to their total, bringing the game from 13-2 to 13-7. A lot of people (myself included) were getting far less cocky than we had been just a couple of innings earlier. The Jays' win probability wasn’t phased; it went from 99.7% all the way down to 99.1%. Since we don’t have a lot of plays that led to large win probability swings to drill down on, let’s look at the players who made the largest cumulative contributions.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 11% WPA (3-for-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 2 R)
Vladdy continued to terrorize the Yankees. He hit the first grand slam in Blue Jays postseason history. Yankees starter Max Fried came out to start the fourth inning but was lifted before recording an out. The pitcher that manager Aaron Boone turned to was Will Warren. Warren, to his credit, recorded more outs than Fried did, pitching 4.2 innings; the four home runs he surrendered perhaps point to an overused bullpen or a manager who had already thrown in the towel. Regardless of the reasoning behind Boone's pitching decisions, the results were the results, and now Guerrero will always be the answer to the question: Who hit the first Jays playoff grand slam?

Ernie Clement: 14% WPA (3-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 R)
As noted above, Clement’s homer was the biggest win expectancy swing of the game. Batting sixth and playing third base, he was mainly in the lineup for his glove; the Jays started five Gold Glovers to back up their rookie pitcher (we’ll get to him soon) and, as noted in the pre-game broadcast, Clement is a favourite to win the utility player Gold Glove this season. A lineup built for defense really brought the offense, and Clement led the charge.

Daulton Varsho: 16% WPA (4-for-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 4 R)
Speaking of Gold Glovers playing like Silver Sluggers, Varsho had as many extra-base hits against Fried as he had against left-handed pitching all season. He also went deep twice off of Warren. His first double was originally ruled a triple before the official scorekeeper had a look at Aaron Judge’s whiff in the outfield, not to be confused with his whiffs at the plate (again, we’ll get there!), and took us off of cycle watch. Varsho earned an honourable mention for Jays Centre's Hitter of the Year, and with the way he’s started these playoffs, he surely wants to be in the running for postseason honours too.

Trey Yesavage: 18% WPA (5.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 11 K)
Five and a third innings of no-hit baseball in his postseason debut and only his fourth start at the major league level. Yesavage faced 18 batters and struck out 11 of them. His performance was so electric (a word seemingly required to describe the young hurler) that manager John Schneider was booed by the hometown crowd when he came out of the dugout to lift Yesavage from the game. In post-game remarks, Schnieder said he turned to some of the vets in the dugout and said, “Wish me luck!” before heading out to the mound.

After two dominant performances at home, the Jays will head to the Bronx and look to Shane Bieber to continue the string of great starting pitching performances, as they strive to wrap this series up in the minimum number of games.

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