Article: How Does the Blue Jays’ Offence Stack Up to That of Recent World Series Teams?

[Bob Ritchie]

As the 2025 regular season winds down, media members and others will comment about how Toronto measures up against other 2025 postseason teams. Such analysis is interesting and, for sure, timely. However, I thought it would be thought-provoking to examine Toronto’s 2025 offence at the macro level and see how it measures up against the offences of the teams that have recently played in the World Series. The period I studied spans from 2014 to 2024, except for 2020, which I excluded because the 2020 campaign consisted of only 60 games. The Blue Jays-World Series ballclubs comparison should provide insights into Toronto’s batting and baserunning strengths and weaknesses relative to MLB’s 2025 postseason.

The aspects of Toronto’s offence covered are as follows:

• Key batting metrics (wRC+, runs, home runs, and others)
• Distribution of runs between home runs and balls in play
• Hitting performance by pitcher handedness
• Performance with runners in scoring position
• Batting order balance
• Hitting by inning segments
• Baserunning

Speaking of balance, there is a table for each of the bullet points above! Please note that each table contains averages and medians for the indicated period. If the period stated on a table is not 2014-2024, it is because the data did not include seasons before 2016 or 2015. Onto the tables!

Table 1 shows key batting metrics for the Blue Jays and the noted World Series participants. The 2023 Diamondbacks are the outlier with their, at best, middle-of-the-pack numbers. Concerning the Blue Jays vis-à-vis wRC+, runs and OBP, the 2025 squad lines up nicely with the teams listed and the average and median rankings for the 2014-2024 period. However, the 2025 Blue Jays trail the non-Arizona teams in home runs and ISO, whether in terms of numbers or rankings.

Another way to examine power (ISO) and home runs, particularly, is to look at how teams score runs. That is, how many runs are the result of home runs, and how many runs are attributable to balls in play, balks, and other non-home run plays. For simplicity’s sake, I will lump all runs not arising from home runs to be runs from balls in play (“BIP”). Behold Table 2. As of September 15, 38% of Toronto’s runs have come via home runs and 62% from BIP. In percentage terms, Toronto’s run production due to home runs lags the median by five percentage points and by seven percentage points compared to the average of World Series teams shown (from the 2019 Astros to the 2024 Dodgers).

Is Toronto’s relatively low percentage of runs arising from home runs a disadvantage? Yes, because, as FanGraphs’ Jay Jaffe noted in the article, "No-Hitters Are Great, but the Long Ball Still Wins in October", the share of runs due to home runs increases in the postseason compared to the regular season. Let us take a deeper dive.

I updated the data in Jaffe’s article for the 2023 and 2024 postseasons. The sources for my numbers were Baseball Savant, FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. The reader should note that my percentage of runs due to home runs (RHR%) is slightly different from Jaffe’s. For the 2015-2022 period, my regular season RHR% is, on average, 1.8 percentage points higher than Jaffe’s. My postseason RHR% is 0.2 percentage points lower than Jaffe’s. These differences are insignificant.

It is table chart time! There are three charts: Runs Per Game, Home Runs Per Game, and Percent of Runs Via Home Runs. The chart data support the observations reached by Jaffe, which I also share. The observations are as follows:

• Compared to the regular season, run scoring per game is lower in the postseason. Scoring runs in the playoffs is more difficult because batters typically face better pitchers in the postseason than in the regular season.
• Home runs per game have tended to be higher in the postseason compared to the regular season. For the 2015-2024 period, home runs per game were higher in the playoffs in seven of the ten seasons examined.
• The share of runs attributable to home runs is higher in the postseason than in the regular season.

Recent history suggests that the upcoming postseason run scoring will decrease, while home runs per game will remain at least equal, resulting in fewer runs scoring from balls in play.

Please note that the runs per home run do not vary much for a given year’s regular and postseason. Accordingly, the conclusion that the share of runs attributable to home runs is higher in the postseason than in the regular season still holds, despite a variance in runs per home run between the regular and postseason.

So, what does this mean for Toronto? As of September 21, Toronto leads the American League in runs from BIP (482). Compared to the six non-Toronto American League teams currently in or tied for a playoff spot, the Blue Jays’ 482 mark is much higher than the 403 average BIP runs of the six noted teams. Therefore, Toronto could be more vulnerable to a run-scoring decline because of its relatively high reliance on runs from BIP.

Let us get back to the positive news! Consider Tables 3, 4, 5, and 6. The highlights are as follows:

• Concerning wRC+ by pitcher handedness, Table 3 shows that Toronto is well-balanced versus right-handers (fourth best) and left-handers (third best). Those rankings stack up well against recent World Series teams.
• Table 4 shows that Toronto’s RISP wRC+ ranks well, be it overall, versus right-handers or left-handers. Furthermore, Toronto’s 2025 RISP wRC+ rankings line up nicely against recent World Series ballclubs.
• A word of caution. Batting numbers in RISP situations are volatile in small samples. Furthermore, small samples are characteristic of the postseason. Therefore, consider the Table 4 data as descriptive rather than predictive.
• Many MLB observers have commented upon the high quality of the Blue Jays’ batting order depth, and Table 5 supports that view. In all three batting order segments (#1 to #3, #4 to #6, and #7 to #9), Toronto ranks no worse than eighth among 2025 MLB teams, which compares favourably to the 2015-2024 World Series participants.
• Regarding wRC+ data by inning segments, Table 6 is the place to see. In the first six innings of the game, Toronto’s 110 wRC+ slots into the seventh spot. Even better, after the sixth inning, the Blue Jays’ 121 wRC+ is MLB’s best. Additionally, Toronto’s noted rankings are in line with those of World Series teams during the 2015-2024 period.
• Another cautionary note. My interpretation of Toronto’s wRC+ after the sixth inning is not that the Blue Jays are clutch. Instead, Toronto’s excellence in the seventh or later innings demonstrates that the Blue Jays perform well against relievers. Performance after the sixth inning should be a Blue Jays’ strength because relievers share a greater load of the pitching workload in the postseason than in the regular season.

The final aspect to examine is baserunning. Table 7 shows that Toronto does not run the bases well, whether stealing bases or taking extra bases in non-stealing situations. For context, Detroit has the highest Baserunning Runs total (8) of the American League teams in contention for a postseason berth. However, baserunning has often not been a strength of several teams that played in the World Series. Hence, Toronto’s baserunning appears to be only a slight disadvantage in the postseason.

The Last Word
Toronto has had a successful season at the plate in 2025. As of September 17, their wRC+, runs scored, and OBP rank third, fourth and first, respectively, among MLB teams. Furthermore, the Blue Jays have performed well against right-handers and left-handers, be it in RISP or non-RISP situations. Also, Toronto hitters have performed well before the sixth inning and after, and the batting order is deep. Additionally, all these rankings compare favourably with those of recent World Series teams.

One area where Toronto does not compare as well is in the power department. Recent history shows that runs via home runs make up a higher percentage of runs scored in the postseason compared to the regular season. Given that run scoring declines in the postseason, teams that are more reliant on runs from BIP can struggle to score. In other words, because pitching in the postseason is better than in the regular season, it is more difficult for teams to string non-homer hits together to score runs. However, Toronto’s home run total and ISO rank as MLB’s 12th highest. Being #12 is not a disaster. It just means that Toronto’s ranking in the power department, which is not as elite as it is in other areas (such as wRC+, OBP, pitcher handedness balance, and other aspects of hitting), may impact Toronto’s run scoring more than teams that are elite in the power department.

All things considered, Toronto’s offence compares favourably with teams that have made recent World Series.

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[Terry Mesmer]

Many Jays fans are discounting the previous 120 games of elite team batting and have decided the last seven games are the "real" team. It's silly.

Socrates, SABRmetrician: "If then our well-being depended upon this...what would we see as our salvation in life? Would it be the art of measurement or the power of appearance? While the power of appearance often makes us wander all over the place in confusion, often changing our minds with respect to things large and small, the art of measurement in contrast, would make the appearances lose their power by showing us the truth, would give us peace of mind firmly rooted in the truth." (Plato, Protagoras, 356d-e)

[Bob Ritchie]

30 minutes ago, Terry Mesmer said:

Many Jays fans are discounting the previous 120 games of elite team batting and have decided the last seven games are the "real" team. It's silly.

Socrates, SABRmetrician: "If then our well-being depended upon this...what would we see as our salvation in life? Would it be the art of measurement or the power of appearance? While the power of appearance often makes us wander all over the place in confusion, often changing our minds with respect to things large and small, the art of measurement in contrast, would make the appearances lose their power by showing us the truth, would give us peace of mind firmly rooted in the truth." (Plato, Protagoras, 356d-e)

Well done, Terry!

[Terry Mesmer]

Despite the Jays' relative lack of power, I am very encouraged by how they compare with RISP, and especially with how the offence is spread throughout the lineup. It could make up for the Jays not have a true "ace."

 

Maybe that is the subject of another article: 1) The playoffs can see short outings for starters with heavier reliance on relievers, but 2) the Jays do very well against relievers.