Article: This Week Brought Answers (and More Questions) About the Blue Jays’ Playoff Rotation

[Leo Morgenstern]

When the Blue Jays host Game 1 of the ALDS next month, Kevin Gausman will throw the first pitch of the series. Sure, I’m making some assumptions, but at this point, they’re safe assumptions to make. The Blue Jays have separated themselves from the pack in the Junior Circuit. They are heavy favorites to earn a first-round bye and secure home-field advantage through the ALCS. 

Meanwhile, Gausman has separated himself from the pack within Toronto’s starting rotation. 

José Berríos was the Opening Day starter. Chris Bassitt got off to the hottest start. Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber are former Cy Young winners. Trey Yesavage is one of the top pitching prospects in the league. Yet, no pitcher has been more important to the Blue Jays this season than Gausman. He’s been consistent and dependable every fifth game. He leads the staff in innings, strikeouts, quality starts, and both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference WAR. 

Gausman has looked especially dominant lately, with a 2.19 ERA in 11 starts since the All-Star break. He has averaged 6.2 innings per game in that time, with 73 strikeouts to 13 walks. The highlight of this stretch was his shutout against the Astros a week ago today, a performance I argued was not only his best of the season but his best start, period.

In the comments of that article, my Jays Centre colleague Mike LeSage wondered if that performance cemented Gausman as Toronto’s starter for Game 1 of the ALDS. 

At the time, I wasn’t sure. Six games later, and any doubts I might have had have been put to rest. Gausman is getting the ball.

The righty followed up his shutout with six innings of one-run work against the Rays on Wednesday. Combine that with his one-run, eight-inning gem against the Yankees on September 5 and his one-run, seven-inning showing against the Brewers on August 30, and you get the most impressive four-start span of his Blue Jays tenure. 

Let me emphasize that: This is the best starting pitcher the Blue Jays have had since Roy Halladay, and he’s pitching at the top of his game. 

Of course, it’s not just Gausman’s own performance that has earned him the Game 1 start. When the Jays acquired Bieber at the trade deadline, I think every fan dreamed at least a little about the possibility of the 2020 AL Cy Young winner becoming Toronto’s ace.

It wasn’t ever likely. Returning from Tommy John surgery is easier now than it once was, but it remains incredibly challenging. Yet, the last time we had seen a healthy Bieber, he was sitting on 20 strikeouts and just one walk over 12 scoreless innings to open the 2024 season. He was every bit as dominant during his minor league rehab stint this summer (29 IP, 6 ER, 37 K, 3 BB), and his first two starts for the Jays were pretty darn good too (11.1 IP, 3 ER, 15 K, 0 BB). It wasn’t unrealistic to think he could start a Game 1.

However, Bieber’s next two starts showed that he’s still only human (11.2 IP, 8 ER, 10 K, 3 BB). His most recent effort was another quality start, but even so, he never looked quite as dominant as Gausman has lately. With only 10 games left in Toronto’s regular season, Bieber is simply out of time to usurp Gausman as the number one.

So, as things stand, I think Bieber gets the ball in ALDS Game 2 (although there’s still time for that to change). But presuming Gausman goes first and Bieber follows, the next question is, who gets the third guaranteed game?

Until recently, a lot of people would have confidently told you the answer was Scherzer. Fair enough. He has more postseason experience than every other pitcher on the roster combined. However, when it comes to an oft-injured hurler in his forties, I put more stock in recent results than career experience. 

That brings me to Bassitt. These are Scherzer and Bassitt’s numbers since Scherzer returned from the IL on June 25. Pretty similar!

Pitcher	IP	ERA	FIP	SIERA	fWAR
Max Scherzer	76.1	4.24	4.54	4.25	0.8
Chris Bassitt	73.2	4.28	4.71	4.16	0.5

Now, take a look at their numbers since the start of August:

Pitcher	IP	ERA	FIP	SIERA	fWAR
Max Scherzer	44.1	3.86	4.89	4.87	0.3
Chris Bassitt	43.0	2.93	3.94	4.36	0.6

And, finally, their numbers from the past month:

Pitcher	IP	ERA	FIP	SIERA	fWAR
Max Scherzer	25.1	5.33	5.08	4.71	0.1
Chris Bassitt	27.1	2.30	2.56	3.66	0.8

Scherzer’s start against the Orioles over the weekend was solid, but Bassit was even better against that same Baltimore team the day before. 

I don’t need to tell you about Scherzer’s reputation. We call him a future Hall of Famer for a reason. That said, it’s now been several years since Scherzer was definitively a better pitcher than Bassitt. Indeed, Bassitt has been the more reliable arm the last two years, and he’s looked significantly better than Scherzer lately. In other words, he’s the hot hand and the safer choice at the same time.

Could Scherzer’s status still earn him the Game 3 start? Yes, I could see that happening. But Bassitt has more than earned the opportunity.

One last thing we learned this week is that José Berríos won’t be starting in the playoffs. Things had been trending in that direction for a while, but after his mediocre showing against the Rays on Tuesday, there’s just no way to make an argument for Berríos over any of his fellow starters. He has a 4.81 ERA since the All-Star break, a 4.96 ERA since the trade deadline, and a 5.56 ERA in September, and none of the underlying numbers help his case.

All of this to say, I’m confident that my current ranking of the Blue Jays’ starters won’t change by the time the playoffs roll around: Gausman, Bieber, Bassitt, Scherzer, Berríos. 

Except for one thing. What about the Trey Yesavage of it all?

Toronto’s top pitching prospect was unbelievable in his MLB debut, tossing five innings of one-run ball with nine strikeouts, two walks, and a 55.6% groundball rate. Most impressive was his pitch count. I don’t disagree with Schneider’s decision to pull him when he did, but sitting at just 69 pitches, Yesavage easily could have gone deeper.

I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say that what we saw from Yesavage on Monday was as good as anything we’ve seen from Bieber, Bassitt, Scherzer, or Berríos all season. Yesavage will most likely have two more turns in the rotation to prove himself. If those two starts are anything like his first, the Blue Jays might have to find a way to keep him in the mix come October.

To be clear, that’s a big “if.” We’re talking about a 22-year-old who made his professional debut at Single-A Dunedin five months ago. What’s more, Yesavage isn’t currently eligible for the postseason roster; the Blue Jays would need to petition the commissioner's office to add him as an injury replacement. They could probably find a way to do so, but it’s still a hurdle worth mentioning. 

So, could Yesavage start Game 3 after Gausman and Bieber? I’m not going to write off the possibility. I will say, it’s hard to imagine the Jays giving the rookie the ball in a potential elimination game; it wouldn’t be fair to put that kind of pressure on his shoulders. Then again, they might see Yesavage as giving them their best chance to win. 

This past week of games answered a lot of my questions about the Blue Jays’ postseason rotation. However, Yesavage’s phenomenal debut threw a huge wrench into everything I thought I knew. With 10 games left to go, the Blue Jays still have plenty to figure out.

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[Mike LeSage]

I was getting ready to make an argument for Scherzer as the game 3 starter... and then I watched this first inning. Maybe Bassitt is the guy.