Article: Do the Blue Jays Use Little Too Much or Little Too Little?

[Bob Ritchie]

A frequent conversation among armchair field managers is whether John Schneider uses some relievers more than he should, to the point that those bullpen arms underperform due to fatigue. Two of the names that appear the most in those discussions are Jeff Hoffman and Brendon Little. Has Schneider used these two relievers excessively? How does the Blue Jays' bullpen usage compare to the Houston Astros, one of the better American League bullpens? Let’s find some tables!

My bullpen usage examination will consider two aspects of reliever management: the average number of days between appearances and the average number of outings per month. I selected Houston's bullpen as the comparison because it leads the American League in xERA and WPA.

Table 1 is the first chart on the agenda. The data presented is the five current Toronto relievers with the most innings pitched as a Blue Jay in 2025. Please note that I excluded Chad Green, who Toronto designated for assignment on July 29 and released on August 3, who ranks fifth in innings pitched among Blue Jay relievers. The Houston average is for its five relievers with the most innings. I also present the numbers for Josh Hader, Houston’s closer, and Bryan Abreu, the Astro with the most holds (25). These two relievers are comparable to Hoffman (Toronto’s closer) and Little, who leads Toronto with 24 holds.

The average number of days between outings for Toronto and Houston is similar. The exception is Toronto’s listed relievers have averaged 18 outings on one day’s rest, whereas Houston’s bullpen arms have averaged 14. Regarding the closers, Hoffman has 15 appearances on zero days’ rest, five more than Hader. On less than two days’ rest, Hoffman has 31 outings, six more than Hader. It is noteworthy that Hader is on the 15-day Injured List with a shoulder strain, and reporters expect him to be on the sidelines beyond the 15 days. He has not pitched since August 8. After August 8, Hoffman has appeared four times: one on six days' rest, two on one day's rest, and one on zero days off. Therefore, before August 9, Hoffman had 49 outings, and 28 on less than two days' rest. Thus, according to Table 1, there is not much difference in usage between Hoffman and Hader.

Regarding Little and Abreu, Little has 26 outings on one day of rest, higher than Abreu’s 16. Yet, Little’s 34 outings with less than two days’ rest are not significantly more than those of Abreu’s 30. With days of rest less than four days but more than one, Abreu’s 19 appearances are equal to Little’s 19. In other words, Little’s workload in terms of rest days is not dissimilar from Abreu’s.

One aspect of Hoffman’s usage is that he has, on five occasions, pitched four times in five days. In 2025, Hader has not pitched four times in five days. Except for Boston’s Aroldis Chapman, I did not examine other American League closers concerning four appearances over five days. Chapman has pitched four times in five days on two occasions. Hence, Hoffman’s concentrated usage over five days is unusual.

However, I would be reluctant to criticize Schneider for Hoffman’s usage in the noted five-day stretches. The fourth game details are as follows:

• The first time Hoffman appeared for the fourth time in five days was April 2, and he entered the game after relievers Little, Green, and Yimi Garcia. Given that it was early in the season, Hoffman was well-rested. He pitched an inning and gave up one run in Toronto’s 4-2 win over Washington.
• The second instance was on May 10 when he replaced Mason Fluharty in the ninth inning. If Little appeared, it would have been his third appearance in four days, and one day after going one and two-thirds innings on May 9. Rodriguez had pitched one and one-third innings on May 7 and two innings on May 8, and would not have been available on May 11 for his one and one-third innings. Garcia and Green were well-rested. Hoffman struck the three batters he faced and earned the save in Toronto’s 6-3 win over Seattle.
• On June 10, Hoffman, Fluharty, and Green appeared. Hoffman pitched one-third of an inning and surrendered a solo home run in Toronto’s 10-9 victory over St. Louis. Garcia was on his May 24 to July 1 tenure on the Injured List. Rodriguez pitched one and one-third innings on June 6 and again on June 9, and would not have been available for his June 11 outing.
• Hoffman appeared in the July 3 game against the Yankees. He was Toronto’s fourth reliever (Braydon Fisher, Green, and Justin Bruihl were the other relievers) in the 8-5 win for the Blue Jays. Hoffman surrendered a hit in a scoreless, one-inning appearance. If Rodriguez pitched, it would have been his third outing in three days. A July 3 outing for Little would have been four games in five days.
• In the July 22 Yankees game, Hoffman entered the game in the top of the ninth and surrendered a game-winning home run. Fluharty and Bruihl preceded Hoffman in this game. If Rodriguez or Little were used instead of Hoffman, it would have been four outings in five days for either.

Overall, in 18 innings, over the five times that he made four appearances in five days, Hoffman’s 0.274 xwOBA is lower than the .319 MLB average. His 3.85 FIP is better than MLB’s 4.05 FIP. During the first three games of the four outings in five days, his average xwOBA and FIP are .209 and 2.78, respectively. Hence, on average, Hoffman has pitched well in the first three games of the four-game block. His Game Four average xwOBA and FIP scores are .472 and 7.24, respectively. Concerning rest after the game fours, Hoffman had two days’ rest on three occasions and two six-day respites.

The key takeaways from the noted Hoffman usage are as follows. First, Schneider is no doubt aware of the likelihood of the game four underperformance by a reliever. However, other than possibly the May 10 game, Schneider’s use of Hoffman on April 2, June 10, and the two July games was reasonable. He did not have better options at the time when he made his calls to the bullpen. Second, Hoffman was given ample relief from relief work after the Game Fours. Having to use Hoffman in four games in five days was less than ideal, but reasonable.

Another way to look at reliever usage is the number of outings by month. Lo and behold, Table 2!

The average number of outings for Toronto’s five relievers by month is like Houston’s. Concerning Hoffman and Hader, their monthly totals are alike, as are those of Little and Abreu.

Let us explore a potential connection between monthly usage, days of rest, and performance for Toronto’s relievers. Is there a table to view? No! There are two! Please refer to Table 3 and Table 4.

Concerning Hoffman, there is no apparent connection between monthly usage, days of rest, and performance. His performance has been inconsistent month-to-month despite similar usage and rest. In the case of Little, the claims that his “performance has declined because of an extreme workload” are unfounded. First, as I noted earlier, Little’s workload is similar to Abreu’s. Also, at the end of July, Little was on pace to pitch in 72 innings, almost identical to 2024’s 63 innings and 2023’s 73. Therefore, the data indicate that Schneider has not overworked Little. The second matter to note is how consistent Little’s xwOBA has been month-to-month: his monthly xwOBA has been lower than the MLB Average.

Regarding Table 4, there is no strong relationship between monthly usage, rest, and performance for Rodriguez, Fisher, or Fluharty. One should refrain from drawing any conclusions from the August data due to the small sample size. It is noteworthy that Fisher’s performance has been remarkably consistent for a rookie. Additionally, Fluharty, after a rough June and four July outings with Buffalo, returned to an MLB mound on July 22. In July, his .205 xwOBA (MLB only) was his best month to date.

One can question, for example, why Hoffman remained in the game after the third or fourth walk surrendered to the Dodgers on August 10. There are other moves made or not made that one can call into question. However, the focus of this article is strictly on usage in terms of rest days and the number of outings by month. In summary, the days of rest and monthly usage data do not support the view that Schneider has mismanaged his bullpen.

The Last Word
Toronto's bullpen has performed well this season. The Blue Jays’ reliever corps ranks sixth in xwOBA among American League teams. The Seranthony Domínguez and Louis Varland trade-deadline acquisitions bolstered Toronto’s bullpen. Regarding managing the relievers in terms of rest and number of outings by month, Schneider has operated the bullpen well. On average, the distribution of rest days and the number of outings by month mirrors that of Houston, arguably the best bullpen in the American League. The relievers of primary focus, Hoffman and Little, have usage patterns similar to those of Houston’s Hader and Abreu. Overall, Toronto’s bullpen is well-rested for the push to clinch the American League East Division title. 

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[Terry Mesmer]

>claims that his “performance has declined because of an extreme workload” are unfounded. First, as I noted earlier, Little’s workload is similar to Abreu’s

That is not valid reasoning. Abreu could also be overused, but hasn't declined just yet  -- or will never decline -- because he is more robust. People are not the same.

>Little was on pace to pitch in 72 innings

Again, not valid on its own. It doesn't take into account:

* pitches per inning (Little thrown 34 more pitches in three fewer innings than Abreu)

* number of appearances (Little leads the AL with 76 appearances. Abreu has 68 appearances. If a fellow pitched only the last out in an inning for 162 games, he would have "just" 54 IP but we would say, correctly, that he was abused, because of)

* number of pitches thrown while warming up (and sometimes did not enter a game, which is a practice of Schneider the last couple months, but does not show up on stat pages -- that I am aware of). Who knows how many times Little has warmed up but not been used? But we see Schneider do it nearly every game now.

>Concerning Hoffman, there is no apparent connection between monthly usage, days of rest, and performance.

But Hoffman's fastball velocity is down substantially from July (97.0 MPH to 95.1 MPH).