Article: The Blue Jays Need George Springer Back

[Owen Hill]

At this point, you’re probably wondering if I have any hotter takes surrounding the Jays’ recent rough stretch of play, and aside from some thoughts about starting pitching meant for a different article, I really don’t.

Since July 28, the day on which George Springer left after being hit in the head with a 96-mph sinker from Kade Strowd, the Jays have lost three out of four series, and a lot of momentum seems to have dried up.

That’s not to say the sky is falling. The Jays have now won their last two games against the Dodgers and Cubs. They still hold the best record in the American League, and they're flexing a 4.5-game lead over the Red Sox for the top spot in the AL East. As frustrating as it’s been to watch the Jays sputter towards losing eight of their last 15, they’ve only given up two games to the Red Sox, and they’ve actually gained half a game on the Yankees over that stretch.

The failure of the Red Sox and Yankees to take advantage of the Blue Jays’ stumble doesn’t excuse the stumble itself, but it certainly makes it a lot easier to come to terms with. In the same breath, the longer the Jays allow this slump to go, the greater the chances of one of those two teams finding their footing and making a push to get past the Jays in the standings, a nightmare scenario considering the randomness of the AL Wild Card landscape.

The first thing that needs to happen for the Jays to get back on the right track is that the offense needs to get back to doing its thing. The Jays have built this lead in the AL East on the backs of an elite position player group that leads baseball in fWAR and ranks third in wRC+. For as much time as we spend talking about the Blue Jays’ run prevention, the run scoring has been the greatest strength of this team, and Springer has been a massive part of that since the outset of the season.

His 18 bombs have him tied with Addison Barger for the second most on the team, but perhaps the stat that best illustrates the type of season he's having is his 148 wRC+, which ties him with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for the lead among Blue Jays (minimum 140 plate appearances) and puts him within the top 10 qualified players in MLB.

Take a look at the top 10 and imagine what each player’s team would look like if he were removed from the lineup for an extended period of time.

Player	Team	wRC+
Aaron Judge	New York Yankees	202
Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	174
Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	159
Ketel Marte	Arizona Diamondbacks	158
Cal Raleigh	Seattle Mariners	157
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Toronto Blue Jays	148
George Springer	Toronto Blue Jays	148
Kyle Stowers	Miami Marlins	146
Byron Buxton	Minnesota Twins	145
Pete Alonso	New York Mets	146

Now, you could look at the Jays’ offensive numbers since July 28 – the day of Springer’s last game before hitting the concussion IL– and tell me that they still have the best wRC+ in the AL, the most homers in the AL, and have scored an impressive 6.2 runs per game since then, but obviously a 45-run outburst over three games in Colorado is going to skew those stats pretty heavily.

As unfair as it may be, if we take those three games at the Rockies out of the picture, the Jays are averaging just 3.8 runs per game in 11 games since July 28, more than a full run lower than their season average of 4.9.

An 11-game sample is hardly even worth writing about, especially when it purposely omits three games in the middle of that stretch, but it’s more than worth keeping an eye on, especially when it lines up perfectly with the loss of one of the team's best offensive players.

The Jays' messaging surrounding Springer has been curious, to say the least. He’s supposedly participating in full baseball activities, but is still waiting to clear a final benchmark of MLB’s concussion protocol, and has been for some time now.

He’s missed enough time at this point that he’s going to need at least a couple of appearances on a minor league rehab assignment, which will delay his return. Hopefully, John Schneider will be able to pencil George Springer into his lineup again soon, because the Blue Jays are a completely different team when he’s in the game.

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