Article: Is George Springer the Blue Jays' Most Likely All-Star?

[Leo Morgenstern]

I've been giving the All-Star Game a lot of thought lately. The game, scheduled for July 15, is still more than a month away, but the first round of voting for All-Star starters kicked off last week. As the managing editor of a Blue Jays blog, it's my job to try to think of timely and relevant article ideas every day, and right now, All-Star voting is one of the buzziest topics around the league. The problem, however, is that the Blue Jays don't have many players with a strong case to start the game. Alejandro Kirk is playing well, but Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh has all but locked up his first All-Star start. Kirk has no chance. The competition is much closer at first base, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s superstar status could earn him some extra votes, but he currently trails Jonathan Aranda, Spencer Torkelson, and Paul Goldschmidt in OPS and wRC+. Meanwhile, two of Toronto's top four players by WAR (both the FanGraphs and Baseball Reference varieties) aren't even on the ballot: utilityman Ernie Clement and backup catcher Tyler Heineman. 

So, instead of thinking about fan voting for the All-Star starting lineup, I've already turned my attention to the pitching staff and the reserves, who are selected by the commissioner’s office or voted in via the players' ballot. You see, each team is guaranteed at least one All-Star every year. That means the Blue Jays will have a representative at the All-Star Game this summer, whether anyone on the club "deserves" the honor or not. It might be early, but I'm already starting to wonder who that rep might be. 

Kirk and Guerrero are having solid seasons, but I worry they have too much competition at their positions to earn a spot. Clement has far less competition at second base, and his versatility could also allow him to join the team as a utility player without taking up a spot at a particular position. He might seem like a strange choice at first glance, but he leads the team in bWAR and ranks a close second behind Kirk in fWAR. Additionally, he ranks among the AL leaders in several defensive metrics, which I wrote about on Monday. In fact, it was the discussion in the comments underneath that post that led me to write the piece I'm you're reading right now. However, as multiple commenters pointed out, Clement's bat isn't All-Star quality, and his status as a utilityman could actually end up working against him. (Sometimes, utility players get written off as bench players.) As much as I've enjoyed watching Clement this season, I have to agree. Barring a red-hot offensive performance over the next few weeks, he's probably not making the All-Star team. 

Another under-the-radar candidate to consider is Brendon Little. I first started to take his candidacy seriously last week, when I realized that only one AL reliever had thrown more innings with a lower ERA: Twins closer Jhoan Duran. That's still true, although Bryan Abreu of the Astros has tied Little; they've each given up five earned runs in 29 innings of work. (Note: This article was written prior to games on Monday, June 9.) Little is also one of just three AL relievers (min. 25 IP) to rank within the top 10 in both ERA and strikeout rate, along with Josh Hader of the Astros and Andrés Muñoz of the Mariners. Unfortunately, it's difficult for a non-closer to make the All-Star team, especially one with a track record as limited as Little's. That doesn't mean it's impossible; Yennier Cano in 2023 or Matt Strahm in 2024 are two recent examples of non-closers without much name recognition who rightfully earned All-Star selections. Still, Little is another longshot, even if one could argue he's the most deserving choice. 

At a loss for who might represent Toronto in this year's Midsummer Classic, I finally realized the answer had been under my nose all along. It's George Springer, who is enjoying an offensive renaissance in his age-35 campaign. A four-time All-Star, two-time Silver Slugger, and the 2017 World Series MVP, Springer saw his offensive performance drop off substantially in 2023 and '24. As he entered his fifth season with the Blue Jays, it seemed like his best days were behind him. Yet instead, the oldest hitter in Toronto's 2025 starting lineup has also been the most productive. He leads the team (min. 60 PA) in home runs (10), OPS (.852), and wRC+ (142). How didn't I consider this guy for an All-Star spot sooner? 

Indeed, Springer also stacks up quite nicely compared to other AL outfielders. Among the 45 outfielders on the AL All-Star ballot, only two, Aaron Judge and Matt Wallner, have a higher OPS or wRC+ than Springer. There's no doubt that Judge will be starting for the AL All-Star squad, but Wallner has only played 25 games this season, so his All-Star chances are slim. Among primary outfielders in the AL with a minimum of 100 plate appearances, Springer's 0PS and wRC+ rank second only to Judge. He also ranks second to Judge with a .403 expected wOBA, while his Win Probability Added (WPA) ranks third behind Judge and Trent Grisham. I knew Springer was having a terrific season, but I didn't realize just how terrific until I looked at the numbers. Funnily enough, the act of writing this paragraph has made me start to wonder if the Blue Jays might have an All-Star starter after all. 

But wait! There is a reason I initially overlooked Springer's All-Star candidacy, and it's no small concern: his glove. Springer might have a perfect 1.000 fielding percentage this year, but his defensive range isn't what it used to be. In just 277.2 innings, he has accumulated -8 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and a -7 FRV (Fielding Run Value). Both of those numbers are tied for last among AL outfielders. What's more, Springer has DH'd in 25 games this year, and his 277.2 outfield innings rank just 38th in the Junior Circuit. Let that sink in: 37 outfielders have played more often – some have played more than twice as many innings – but none has a lower DRS or FRV. 

According to the numbers at FanGraphs, Springer's defense has been so bad that it almost cancels out all of the value he's provided with his bat. So, despite his 142 wRC+, he only has 1.0 fWAR, putting him on pace for a 2.5-win season. That's solid production, especially from a player who turns 36 in September, but it's hardly All-Star worthy. To that point, Springer ranks just 19th among AL outfielders in FanGraphs WAR. Take small amounts of WAR with a huge grain of salt, but there are typically only seven or eight spots for outfielders on the All-Star team. Springer has a lot of ground to make up if he's going to climb from 19th into the top eight. 

With that in mind, I almost wonder if he would have a better case for the All-Star Game as a candidate at DH. He would lead qualified AL designated hitters in stolen bases, while ranking third in wRC+ and OPS. However, there are usually only two DH spots on an All-Star roster, and currently, it would be hard to argue against those spots going to Rafael Devers and Ryan O'Hearn. Drat. 

Ultimately, I still think Springer is the Blue Jays' most likely All-Star. He wouldn't necessarily be my choice, but offensive stats tend to hold more weight than defensive metrics when it comes to All-Star selections, and Springer's offensive numbers truly are All-Star worthy. I'm not sure he'd get in if it weren't for the rule requiring every team to have at least one representative at the game. Yet, as of now, the need for one All-Star from Toronto clears a path for Springer to play in the fifth Midsummer Classic of his career.

Stats updated prior to games on Monday, June 9.

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[mphenhef]

At the end of the day, I think you will see more than one Bluejay make it and Vlad will likely be one of them.

[Spanky__99]

If it ain't Kirky, than who? lol... Springer's having a hell of a year with the bat so far. Hadn't realized how awful his defensive numbers have declined. Vlad likely gets voted in with most of Canada having his back.