Blue Jays 2025 MLB Draft Preview: Rounding Up the Mocks – Part I

[Jim Scott]

Every year, prior to the summer's MLB draft, many sources publish "mock" drafts in which they try to predict which players will be chosen by which teams. In the upcoming draft, the Blue Jays have the eighth pick in the first round. Who do the various mocks predict that Toronto will take, and what makes those prospects so attractive?

Mock Draft Source	Date Posted	Blue Jays' Projected Top Pick (#8)
Baseball America	May 12	Kade Anderson, LHP
MLB.com (Mayo)	May 15	Eli Willits, SS
MLB.com (Callis)	May 6	Billy Carlson, SS
The Athletic (Law)	May 8	Billy Carlson, SS
Bleacher Nation	May 21	Eli Willits, SS
My MLB Draft	May 14	Eli Willits, SS
ESPN (McDaniel)	May 28	Kyson Witherspoon, RHP
Prospects Live	April 30	Jace LaViolette, OF
Sportsnaut	April 22	Marek Houston, SS
Bleacher Report	April 25	Billy Carlson, SS
Perfect Game	March 28	Xavier Neyens, SS/3B
Just Baseball	May 15	Kade Anderson, LHP
The Sports Bank	May 21	Tyler Bremmer, RHP
Call to the Pen	April 13	Tyler Bremmer, RHP
Flo Baseball	May 16	Kyson Witherspoon, RHP
Jays Centre Draft Board	May 28	Liam Doyle, LHP

2025 is an unusual year for the mock drafts. In prior years, there have generally been a wide range of players considered, with only a few predicted by more than one site. This year, there are two players with three mentions, Billy Carlson and Eli Willits, and three others with two mentions, Kade Anderson, Kyson Witherspoon, and Tyler Bremner.

So, to keep this analysis manageable, I will be breaking my review into a few articles. This first piece will discuss the two players named three times: Billy Carlson and Eli Willits. The second will discuss the three pitchers named twice. Finally, a third article will discuss the “dark horses” – intriguing players who might make the Jays draft out of the box.

A hat tip to my colleague, Jamie Cameron, for his suggestions and for his excellent MLB Mock Draft Consensus Board.

Billy Carlson - 18 years old, SS, Corona High School
Scouting grades (per MLB.com):  Hit 50 / Power 50 / Run 55 / Arm 65 / Field 70 / Overall 55

Carlson could be a first-round pick as a right-handed pitcher, with a 96-mph fastball, a curveball with 18 inches of horizontal break, and an above-average changeup. If he played the field at a less valuable position, or if he were a below-average defender, we might be having that discussion. But Carlson not only plays shortstop, he plays it well enough to stick at the major league level. Some scouts even consider him the best defensive shortstop in this year's draft class.

On his bat, Baseball America notes:

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At the plate, Carlson typically has a selective approach and one of the lower swing-and-miss rates among top 2025 prep players. There are times where he hits too many balls on the ground, but his offensive game took a step forward in the 2024 spring season, with a line-drive approach and more power showing up in games and a chance for bigger extra-base damage to come given his bat speed and strength projection.

Could the Jays try to turn him into a two-way Ohtani-lite? Unlikely, as he projects to be an everyday shortstop (and as good as he is, it is very difficult to pitch and play short at the same time!). But even if he never discovers more power, the potential exists for Carlson to be a valuable glove-first player with a below-average ISO but enough OBP to keep him on the field – think Dansby Swanson, or 2023 Orlando Arcia. And if he does grow into more power (he is currently listed at 6-foot-1 and 160 pounds), could he have Elly De La Cruz-level upside?

Eli Willits - 17 years old, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS
Scouting grades (per MLB.com):  Hit 60 / Power 45 / Run 60 / Arm 55 / Field 55 / Overall 60

The Jays have a history of drafting and acquiring prospects with a baseball pedigree. Not only does this include Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, but also players like Cavan Biggio, Kacy Clemens and Will Wagner. Some analysts believe that it is all coincidence, while others believe that a young man who has grown up surrounded by elite baseball talent will display greater baseball maturity and that the Jays value that maturity. Eli's father is Reggie Willits, who played six seasons with the Angels and then served as first base coach for the Yankees. Could this play a role in the Jays' assessment?

Willits is an unusual prospect in several ways. First, he does not turn 18 until December, which will make him one of the youngest prospects in the 2025 draft class. As such, his tools (and his body!) are still very much developing, which makes him a major projection play. Second, he has an unusually polished and complete game for a high school player. He is unlikely to be a potential Gold Glover like Billy Carlson or a home run machine like Ethan Holliday, but he has the arm and the instincts to stay at shortstop (or possibly centre field), and he is a true switch-hitter who has a strong chance to remain one at the major league level.

On his hit tool and power potential, MLB.com notes:

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A switch-hitter who's more proficient from the left side, Willits is exceedingly polished at the plate for his age. He has outstanding bat-to-ball skills, making consistent line-drive contact while rarely straying from the strike zone. He may never have more than average raw power, but his hitting ability should enable him to tap into most of it and provide 15 homers per season.

So, which would the Jays prefer: A player with a few elite-level tools, or one with a solid, well-rounded game that is already mature beyond his years? Consider Masyn Winn of the Cardinals, who put up a 3.6 fWAR in 2024 with only 15 home runs and a below-average .148 ISO. And of course, if Willits's physical tools develop to the same point as his baseball intelligence, he could be something very special (like a Francisco Lindor-lite?).

The Bottom Line
Evaluating mock drafts is fun, but it is relatively rare that the mocks accurately predict the player the Jays will pick. With five players picked more than once this year, it may be more probable that one of these prognosticators will “get it right.” But one thing we can say with certainty is that at least four of them will get it wrong!

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[Spanky__99]

Personally I want the Birds to take Laviolette or the prep arm in SchoolKraft. I really doubt Willits drops to the Jays, but that'd be sexy.