Article: AL East Preview 2025: Boston Red Sox

[Nick John]

The Red Sox made some big additions this offseason. Are they now contenders for the division title?

It’s been a few years since the Red Sox felt like serious contenders entering a season, but after a series of major offseason moves, it feels like they might finally be viewed as a contender once more. In this series, we'll go over each member of the AL East. We’re going to start with the Red Sox, who have emerged as legitimate contenders to take the division both because of their own steps forward and because of bad injury news in New York.

What’s Changed Since Last Year?
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that a lot has changed for the Red Sox since the World Series ended. Their biggest move of the offseason was the acquisition of legitimate ace Garrett Crochet from the White Sox. The trade saw top prospects Kyle Teel, Braden Montgomery, and Chase Meidroth, along with right-hander Wikelman Gonzalez, all sent to the Chicago White Sox. It was a haul for the White Sox, but the Red Sox pulled the trigger and got their ace.

Crochet wasn’t the only addition to the Boston rotation. The team signed Walker Buehler to a one-year, $21-million deal to help anchor the rotation. Joining them was injured left-hander Patrick Sandoval, who will miss at least the first half of this season as he recovers from an internal brace procedure. Sandoval agreed to a two-year deal in hopes of being healthy enough to pitch in Boston by August.

The bullpen looks different, as closer Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin have left for the Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers, respectively. Replacing them are the likes of Aroldis Chapman and Justin Wilson, along with the returns of Garrett Whitlock and Liam Hendriks from injuries. It remains to be seen whether Chapman and Wilson can fill the big shoes left by Jansen and Martin.

The Red Sox also traded a pitching prospect to the Yankees in exchange for glove-first catcher Carlos Narváez, who will back up starter Connor Wong. The biggest move, however, is the signing of Alex Bregman. Bregman surprised many when he agreed to a three-year, $120-million deal (replete with two opt-outs and large deferrals) just days before the scheduled report date. The right-handed bat will immediately pay dividends, and he will provide a veteran presence and voice throughout the clubhouse.

What Remains The Same?
Tyler O'Neill, who signed in Baltimore, is the only 2024 starter who isn't returning. On Sunday, the team announced that consensus top-10 prospect Kristian Campbell will break camp with the club, meaning he's likely the everyday second baseman. Other than that, the lineup should look very similar. Bregman's signing looks like it will push Rafael Devers to designated hitter and force former DH Masataka Yoshida into a smaller role. Jarren Duran looks to lead off once again while the heart of the order appears to be Devers, Bregman, Triston Casas, and Trevor Story. The bottom half will feature Gold Glover Wilyer Abreu, Campbell, Ceddanne Rafaela (who will return to center field), and Wong.

The team’s bench is mostly the same, as Rob Refsnyder returns for his fourth season in Boston while Romy González, David Hamilton, and Nick Sogard look to provide support from utility roles.

Nick Pivetta departed in free agency, but the rest of the 2024 rotation is returning. Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, and Kutter Crawford are back, and Lucas Giolito has returned from Tommy John surgery. Joining them on the pitching side of things will bullpen arms Brennan Bernardino, Cooper Criswell, Justin Slaten, Zack Kelly, and Greg Wiessert. The last two look to battle for a spot in the bullpen.

Where Do The Red Sox Stand in the 2025 AL East Hierarchy?
I'm a Red Sox fan, so this will sound a bit biased, but I believe the Red Sox have what it takes to be in contention for the division title up until the end of the season. As currently constructed, I think they're the best team in the AL East once you take injury situations into consideration. Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projection system doesn’t think as highly of them as I do. With one week until the season officially begins, PECOTA gives the Red Sox just a 6.3% chance of winning the division this season and only a 16.6% chance of clinching a Wild Card spot. FanGraphs is just as harsh, seeing Crochet lead the team with 4.5 WAR. They also predict that Duran’s WAR will drop all the way from 6.7 in 2024 to 3.4 in 2025. Offensively, the Red Sox are projected to have three starters with a WAR higher than 3.0, with Bregman leading the way at 3.8 WAR.

With the East open due to injuries and possible regression from the competition, it could be the best chance for the Red Sox to capture the division title since 2018. They have an improved roster, morale is high, and the starting rotation features enviable depth. Calling them the favorites in the division shouldn't be a stretch, even if PECOTA disagrees.

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