Article: AL East Preview 2025: Tampa Bay Rays

[Nick John]

The Tampa Bay Rays finished one game shy of .500 (and six ahead of the Blue Jays) in 2024, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2018. Are they due for a bounce back in 2025?

The Tampa Bay Rays had a tough offseason, though it was more due to Hurricane Milton destroying Tropicana Field. As the Trop is under construction to be playable in 2026, the Rays will instead play at the New York Yankees’ spring training park (George M. Steinbrenner Field) un 2025. The Rays look to put this event behind them and make a push back into the playoffs after missing it in 2024.

What’s Changed Since Last Year?

For the Rays, not much has really changed. Besides being forced to play at a spring training ballpark in 2025, most of their roster has remained the same from last season. Their big moves involved the free agent signings of Danny Jansen to be their starting catcher and Ha-Seong Kim to play shortstop, though the latter won’t be back until May or June as he recovers from offseason shoulder surgery.

On the pitching side, the Rays did what they’re well known for: getting players who aren’t big names. They acquired Mason Englert from the Detroit Tigers for minor league player Drew Sommers back in February. Englert pitched in 12 games for Detroit last season, throwing 21 2/3 innings. The other moves the Rays made for their pitching staff was purchasing former New York Mets’ top prospect Mike Vasil from the Philadelphia Phillies who drafted him in the Rule 5 draft and making another trade with the Tigers for Alex Faedo. They also selected Nate Lavender from the Mets during the Rule 5 draft. Departing from the team is Jeffrey Springs, who was traded to the Athletics for a package of Joe Boyle and minor leaguers Will Simpson and Jacob Watters.

The bullpen did see some losses this offseason as Colin Poche and Jason Adam left the team to sign with the Washington Nationals and San Diego Padres respectively. Phil Maton also signed with the St. Louis Cardinals.

Probably the biggest difference in the team will be the fact that Shane McClanahan will be returning from his second Tommy John surgery, which he had in August 2023. McClanahan is an ace and will help shape the top of the Rays’ rotation now that he is healthy again.

What Remains The Same?

You could joke about it, but almost everything. The rotation returns most of its pieces as Taj Bradley, Ryan Pepiot, Zack Littell, Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussen will comprise the heart of the group. With the return of McClanahan, there’s a good chance the Rays begin the season with a six-man rotation to help with his load management.

The offense itself isn’t changed much either, as the team will still be carried by veterans Yandy Díaz and Brandon Lowe on the right side of the infield while Junior Caminero looks to play well in his first full season in the major leagues. The outfield will see the return of Josh Lowe, who can flash both speed and power, while Danny Jansen will join everyone as the new starting catcher. The bottom half of the lineup will be filled with young guys as Jonathan Aranda hopes to crack the starting lineup and Christopher Morel (who was acquired at the deadline for Isaac Paredes) will shift to left field. Jonny DeLuca will man center field while Taylor Walls returns to handle the duties at shortstop.

Even the bench hasn’t changed much as Curtis Mead, Richie Palacios and José Caballero will reprise their roles from last season. Joining them is Ben Rortvedt, who is likely to lose his starting position at catcher to Jansen.

The bullpen sees the return of several pieces as Pete Fairbanks, Edwin Uceta, Garrett Cleavinger, Kevin Kelly and Manuel Rodríguez are all back for another go-round. And while relievers can be volatile and have up and down seasons, each of them are coming off of respectable campaigns out of the bullpen in Tampa Bay. The Rays know how to use relievers and how to get the most out of them. That trait will continue into 2025 as they look to use a variety of relievers to help them win important ball games.

Where Do The Rays Stand in the 2025 AL East Hierarchy?

As a Blue Jays writer, I would like to say that the Rays don’t have much of a chance. But if there’s anything I know about the Rays, it’s that you can never count them out. Especially when you think you can. Last season was a bit different as the Rays dealt with injuries to their rotation from the start of the season, with only three starters making more than 20 starts and none of them handling more than 29. That’ll likely change this year, and the Rays will be more dangerous than they appeared in 2024.

PECOTA projects them to barely finish above .500 with roughly 82 wins and a fourth-place finish in the division. Overall, they have just under a 10% chance of winning the division and have a 34.5% chance of making the playoffs. Personally, I feel those numbers are a bit low for the Rays.

FanGraphs projects well for the Rays, as their lineup appears to be rather deep (at least in terms of WAR). Out of the projected starters, only Taylor Walls is projected to have less than a 1.5 WAR. The lineup sees three starters being projected with a WAR over 3.0 as Díaz, Lowe and Caminero lead the way (Caminero is projected to lead the offense with 3.4 WAR). Even the Rays’ bench seems to be well off, as both Rortvedt and Caballero are projected to eclipse 1.0 WAR in part-time duty.

From the pitching side of things, none of the Rays starters are projected to have a WAR less than 1.2, and McClanahan is projected to lead the rotation with a 3.0 WAR.

The Rays may not have many stars on their team, but they make up for it with their depth of quality major league players. This team is built for the long grind of a 162-game season that includes injuries and slumps. However, come the playoffs, that might not be enough to overcome other teams who have brought in stars to help lead the way.

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