Article: Two Jays Prospects in Make-Or-Break Years

[Simon Li]

The Jays have had their fair share of disappointing prospects and picks, sometimes due to poor injury luck, sometimes due to poor drafting and development. At some point, these prospects had some hype, with bright futures and high rankings. Let's take a look at a couple of the hitters who haven’t really panned out yet.

3B/SS - Tucker Toman - 21 Years Old - (Single-A Dunedin) 
Tucker Toman was a highly touted high school prospect coming out of Hammond High School, and the Jays decided to spend $2 million, the second-highest bonus of their draft class, on him to convince him against going to Louisiana. They drafted him using one of the compensation picks that came from losing Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien in free agency. Toman was praised for having a good hit tool and approach pre-draft while also being able to hit for power. There were some concerns about some inconsistency and swing-and-miss, but all in all, the Jays were widely praised for making the pick on a young switch-hitting infielder who could hit for power. Shortly after being drafted as an 18-year-old, he even had a short run in the Florida Complex League with a .289/.391/.368 slash line and a 119 wRC+, providing some hope on Toman’s ability to hit as a professional.

Unfortunately for Toman and the Blue Jays, nothing much has gone right for him since 2023. He had a mediocre year in Single-A Dunedin, his first full season of professional baseball, slashing only .208/.320/.313 for an 81 wRC+. He walked 12.5% of the time and struck out 26.8% of the time, which led to him sliding down all prospects list. In 2024, he showed more of the same while repeating Single-A in Dunedin, slashing .221/.301/.318 for a 82 wRC+ as his walk and strikeout rates went in the wrong directions. He required a month break on the developmental list to attempt to reset halfway through the season. Toman’s hit tool seems to be a massive issue at this point in his career. He ran a 69.1% contact rate in 2023 and slid down to a 65.9% in 2024. Add in the fact that when he does make contact, he doesn’t do much damage. It’s hard to see a path forward for Toman, even if his defense has been slightly better than advertised on draft day, thanks to a stronger arm that should allow him to stick at third base. 

Toman is still just 21, and he may still have a path forward. His right-handed swing is much less impressive than his righthanded swing, with a differential of 100 points of OPS in both 2023 and 2024. Toman may need to consolidate his efforts into his more effective lefty swing and try to figure out the power potential and hitting feel that led him to get him drafted so highly in the first place. He may have to do so in Single-A Dunedin for a third time.

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2B/3B/SS - Manuel Beltre - 20 Years Old - (Single-A Dunedin) 
Beltre was the Blue Jays' key signing in the 2021 international free agent class. He signed for $2.35 million out of the Dominican Republic and generated a lot of buzz with his makeup and skills, despite lacking some standout raw tools. He showed solid athleticism and skills that had people believing that he could stick at shortstop. Scouts hoped his strong contact abilities would lead to greater power as he aged up and gained strength. Beltre showed promise as a 17-year-old in the Dominican Summer League in 2021, walking more than he struck out, and his .225 batting average was largely chalked up to bad batted ball luck. He still ran a 119 wRC+ in 238 PAs, showing flashes of promising exit velocities. His first season stateside also showed some promise. Although he hadn’t shown much power still in the Florida Complex League, he demonstrated strong plate discipline and was a slightly above-average hitter as an 18-year-old. 

Unfortunately, Beltre would not progress much offensively after moving up to Single-A Dunedin in 2023 as a 19-year-old. He showed decent plate discipline again, but failed to hit for much power at all. He hit six home runs in 431 PAs and ran a 91 wRC+, sowing doubts that his potential was limited to that of a light-hitting utility infielder. In 2024, Beltre showed more of the same, running a 96 wRC+ and showing even less power. Despite getting praise for his contact ability as a teenager, Beltre’s contact rates now are more average than good and his offensive profile has begun to look very limited. He has also moved down the  defensive spectrum thanks to the arrival of top-ranked prospect Arjun Nimmala, moving off shortstop and splitting time at third and second. Although Beltre avoids strikeouts and takes his share of walks, the fact that he has no carrying tool makes it hard to project him as a viable major leaguer in the future.

Beltre will still only be 21 years old for the 2025 season, but at 5-foot-10 and 155 pounds, it's unclear how much more strength he could add to his frame and whether that would slow him down enough to hurt his basestealing, at this point possibly his best tool. The fact that his contact skills are just average instead of good also makes it much harder for him as he advances and faces tougher competition. Beltre will most likely need to add to his defensive versatility and to improve his hitting to keep moving up the ladder. The praise about his work ethic and makeup give him a chance to get there, but he’ll need to have a strong showing in High-A Vancouver to really prove himself as more than organizational depth.

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