Article: Zach Pop’s Elbow Thins Blue Jays Bullpen Even Further

[Davy Andrews]

While it's great that Zach Pop's MRI came back clean, his injury adds uncertainty to a Blue Jays bullpen that doesn't need any more of it.

The Blue Jays got some good news yesterday, relatively speaking. An MRI on reliever Zach Pop’s elbow came back negative. The scan revealed only inflammation rather than structural damage, and Pop will be shut down for seven to 10 days before throwing again. The bad news is that this good news sounds awfully familiar. Last week, the team received similar good-bad news about Erik Swanson, whose MRI revealed with a median nerve entrapment but no structural damage. He received a cortisone injection and his own doctor’s note excusing him from throwing for a few days. While it’s great that neither player appears to be seriously injured, the Blue Jays don’t have enough bullpen depth to do this dance indefinitely.

Let’s start with Swanson and Pop. The important thing to remember is that there’s no guarantee that either of these players will be back up to speed after their throwing hiatus ends. They’re just giving their elbows time to calm down. They came into camp, pitched for a couple weeks, and it didn’t feel right; now they’re waiting and hoping. If this short rest doesn’t work, maybe they’ll get a longer rest, or maybe they’ll go for another opinion or some more imaging. The truth is the only thing we know about when Swanson and Pop will be ready to pitch is that it will be some time after Opening Day.

Swanson is more integral to the overall success of the bullpen, and the good news is that the Blue Jays don’t have a shortage of decent arms. According to Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projection system, the Blue Jays have eight relievers who are projected to throw at least 20 innings with an ERA below 4.00. That’s tied with several teams for fifth most in baseball. All the same, they only have two pitchers projected to run an ERA below 3.60, which drops them into the bottom half of the league. FanGraphs’ depth chart projections see the Blue Jays ranking 20th in baseball with 2.4 fWAR, running a 3.92 ERA. Free agent signing Jeff Hoffman is a huge addition, as is the Yimi García who returns to the team after a brief foray in Seattle, but Blue Jays fans will be spending the whole season watching Hoffman for signs of the shoulder issue that caused both the Orioles and the Braves to walk away from deals with him.

Moreover, Nick Sandlin, Brendon Little, and Richard Lovelady are the only relievers expected to break camp with the team who are under 30 years old. Every pitcher in baseball represents an injury risk, but the Blue Jays are just plain short on young, live arms. Here’s a very long list of Blue Jays relievers whose fastballs averaged below 95 mph last season: Swanson, Sandlin, Little, Lovelady, Dillon Tate, Tommy Nance, Ryan Yarbrough, Yariel Rodríguez. If that sounds to you like everybody but Hoffman, García, and Chad Green, you’re not wrong.

The Blue Jays have enough solid arms to field a competent bullpen, but health will be paramount, because there aren’t many replacements waiting in the wings. The bullpen really can’t afford any more bad news, even if it comes with good news too.

View full article