Article: Blue Jays 2025 Top 20 Prospect Rankings: No. 1, Arjun Nimmala

[Simon Li]

Welcome back to the Blue Jays Top 20 prospect breakdown. Guess what: We've made it. We're at number one! It's Arjun Nimmala time.

You can find all the previous entries here: 20-15, 15-11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2.

#1: Arjun Nimmala, SS, Single A, Dunedin Blue Jays
Arjun Nimmala was the Blue Jays’ big first-round pick in the 2023 draft. His under-slot signing bonus of $3 million was a surprise, both because he was one of the youngest players in the class at 17 and because he was committed to Florida State University. Nimmala also made history by being the first first-generation Indian-American to go in the first round in any of the big four professional sports leagues. The teenage shortstop got into nine Florida Complex League games immediately after being drafted, walking in 35% of his 40 plate appearances. Fast forward to 2024, and the Jays had a decision on their hands. They could have Nimmala repeat the year in the FCL or let him have a full year of development in single-A Dunedin, an aggressive promotion. The Jays decided on the latter and Nimmala struggled hard in his first 125 PAs, slashing just .167/.280/.306 for a 74 wRC+ and striking out 34% of the time. The Jays then decided to give Nimmala some time off at the Florida Development Complex, letting him reset mentally while also working on some mechanical changes. Once Nimmala returned from the developmental list, he started to show why he was a highly-touted first-round pick, with a .238/.467/.571 slash line for a 172 wRC+ in 8 games in the Florida Complex League, and then carried that success forward after a promotion back to single-A Dunedin, where he ran a 146 wRC+ in 236 PAs.

What to Like
Nimmala was a boy playing among men in his first full season as a professional baseball player, 3.1 years younger than the average single-A player. He was the only 18-year-old to even qualify as a hitter in the FSL. This combination of youth and production makes it easy to project future success, and if he progresses well, the sky could be the limit.

Nimmala excels at lifting the ball, with an average launch angle of 21 degrees. He also hits the ball extremely hard. He ran an average exit velocity of 88.7 mph, a 90th percentile exit velocity of 102.6 mph, and a barrel rate of 21%. All are solidly above average for the Florida State League, and the 88.7-mph average exit velocity isn’t far from the major-league average. Nimmala is also exceptional at pulling fly balls, running 48% pull rate in Single A. He pairs that ability for loud, optimized contact with a decent approach, not chasing too much and looking for pitches to swing at in the zone.

Nimmala as a teenager is still not physically mature yet. He was listed at 6-foot-1, 170 pounds in 2024. He has a lot of room to grow into a big frame, which make it easier to project that he’ll grow into more power. As Keegan Matheson reported just over a week ago, Nimmala has already added 10 pounds. Here he is taking Yohan Ramirez deep last week:

That was Nimmala’s second extra-base hit in the early goings of spring training. The first was this double off journeyman Brandon Leibrandt. Both pitchers were 10 years Nimmala’s senior.

Nimmala is still raw defensively, but there are encouraging signs suggesting that he has a chance to stick at shortstop in the majors. He’s not the best runner, stealing nine bases last season, but still has shown flashes of above-average range. His agility and ability to get to balls and a plus arm projection gives him a good chance to be a solid shortstop at the next level.

What to Work On
Although Nimmala’s bat is his carrying tool, he does have a significant weakness that may prevent him from reaching his full potential. His game features some serious swing-and-miss, and he ran a roughly 70% contact rate in 2024, but Nimmala’s contact rates were solidly below average, just at around 70%. Some really good hitters have successful with contact rates that low, but it will the margin of error is simply lower when you whiff that often. The lack of contact ability showed up in his worrisome 31% strikeout rate. If Nimmala can cut out some whiffs without sacrificing his ability to hit for power, the sky is really the limit. His strikeout rate did drop slightly after coming back from the developmental list, but there’s still room for improvement. Nimmala did start playing organized baseball at a later age, and there’s hope that his below-average contact skills might improve through more experience. He also tends to struggle to pick up spin, so as he progresses through the majors, just getting reps in should help shore up some of those issues.

Defensively, Nimmala needs to continue to put in the work to maintain at shortstop. With his frame not fully filled out yet, he may end up slowing down as he ages up, which would move him down the defensive spectrum to either second or third base. If he manages to bulk up while maintaining his agility and range it would make his outlook in the future much less variable. His arm strength has also been called into question, and he’s still raw defensively. He sometimes looks awkward, which led to 15 errors last season. If he’s able to iron out those kinks, it would also do wonders for his defensive outlook.

What’s Next
Nimmala is expected to start in high-A Vancouver, where he’ll try to prove that his second half wasn’t a fluke, but something that he could build upon. He’ll still be a teenager throughout the duration of the 2025 season, so he’ll be playing against more advanced competition in terms of age, and Nat Bailey Park is much more of a pitcher’s park. The good news is that Nimmala has already shown that he’ll adjust and work his way past setbacks.

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[Spanky99]

Again, great job on the prospect writeups guys.

[Laika]

It's not fair to the kid but the entire farm system might be make-or-break on Nimmala. 

Like, if he turns into a star then everything was always fine. 

[Simon Li]

41 minutes ago, Laika said:

It's not fair to the kid but the entire farm system might be make-or-break on Nimmala. 

Like, if he turns into a star then everything was always fine. 

I do think that the upcoming top 10 pick for the Jays should help add another top end guy to improve the outlook of our farm, but if Nimmala truly breaks out it would indeed be a difference maker for our farm. 

[Laika]

22 minutes ago, sackydude said:

I do think that the upcoming top 10 pick for the Jays should help add another top end guy to improve the outlook of our farm, but if Nimmala truly breaks out it would indeed be a difference maker for our farm. 

Yea Toronto needs to nail the pick this summer. 8th can be a tricky spot. Pretty easy to blow an 8th overall pick and end up with a Kevin Parada or Travis Swaggerty, someone like that. 

Hopefully the draft class is deep. I don't trust Toronto's drafting ability at all. 

[Simon Li]

5 minutes ago, Laika said:

Yea Toronto needs to nail the pick this summer. 8th can be a tricky spot. Pretty easy to blow an 8th overall pick and end up with a Kevin Parada or Travis Swaggerty, someone like that. 

Hopefully the draft class is deep. I don't trust Toronto's drafting ability at all. 

From what I've seen, the top end of this class isn't very spectacular, but it does have decent depth. I've been encouraged by the Jays more recent draft strategy compared to to late 2010s, but you're right that they haven't had much success. 

[max silver]

6 hours ago, sackydude said:

Welcome back to the Blue Jays Top 20 prospect breakdown. Guess what: We've made it. We're at number one! It's Arjun Nimmala time.

You can find all the previous entries here: 20-15, 15-11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2.

#1: Arjun Nimmala, SS, Single A, Dunedin Blue Jays
Arjun Nimmala was the Blue Jays’ big first-round pick in the 2023 draft. His under-slot signing bonus of $3 million was a surprise, both because he was one of the youngest players in the class at 17 and because he was committed to Florida State University. Nimmala also made history by being the first first-generation Indian-American to go in the first round in any of the big four professional sports leagues. The teenage shortstop got into nine Florida Complex League games immediately after being drafted, walking in 35% of his 40 plate appearances. Fast forward to 2024, and the Jays had a decision on their hands. They could have Nimmala repeat the year in the FCL or let him have a full year of development in single-A Dunedin, an aggressive promotion. The Jays decided on the latter and Nimmala struggled hard in his first 125 PAs, slashing just .167/.280/.306 for a 74 wRC+ and striking out 34% of the time. The Jays then decided to give Nimmala some time off at the Florida Development Complex, letting him reset mentally while also working on some mechanical changes. Once Nimmala returned from the developmental list, he started to show why he was a highly-touted first-round pick, with a .238/.467/.571 slash line for a 172 wRC+ in 8 games in the Florida Complex League, and then carried that success forward after a promotion back to single-A Dunedin, where he ran a 146 wRC+ in 236 PAs.

What to Like
Nimmala was a boy playing among men in his first full season as a professional baseball player, 3.1 years younger than the average single-A player. He was the only 18-year-old to even qualify as a hitter in the FSL. This combination of youth and production makes it easy to project future success, and if he progresses well, the sky could be the limit.

Nimmala excels at lifting the ball, with an average launch angle of 21 degrees. He also hits the ball extremely hard. He ran an average exit velocity of 88.7 mph, a 90th percentile exit velocity of 102.6 mph, and a barrel rate of 21%. All are solidly above average for the Florida State League, and the 88.7-mph average exit velocity isn’t far from the major-league average. Nimmala is also exceptional at pulling fly balls, running 48% pull rate in Single A. He pairs that ability for loud, optimized contact with a decent approach, not chasing too much and looking for pitches to swing at in the zone.

Nimmala as a teenager is still not physically mature yet. He was listed at 6-foot-1, 170 pounds in 2024. He has a lot of room to grow into a big frame, which make it easier to project that he’ll grow into more power. As Keegan Matheson reported just over a week ago, Nimmala has already added 10 pounds. Here he is taking Yohan Ramirez deep last week:

That was Nimmala’s second extra-base hit in the early goings of spring training. The first was this double off journeyman Brandon Leibrandt. Both pitchers were 10 years Nimmala’s senior.

Nimmala is still raw defensively, but there are encouraging signs suggesting that he has a chance to stick at shortstop in the majors. He’s not the best runner, stealing nine bases last season, but still has shown flashes of above-average range. His agility and ability to get to balls and a plus arm projection gives him a good chance to be a solid shortstop at the next level.

What to Work On
Although Nimmala’s bat is his carrying tool, he does have a significant weakness that may prevent him from reaching his full potential. His game features some serious swing-and-miss, and he ran a roughly 70% contact rate in 2024, but Nimmala’s contact rates were solidly below average, just at around 70%. Some really good hitters have successful with contact rates that low, but it will the margin of error is simply lower when you whiff that often. The lack of contact ability showed up in his worrisome 31% strikeout rate. If Nimmala can cut out some whiffs without sacrificing his ability to hit for power, the sky is really the limit. His strikeout rate did drop slightly after coming back from the developmental list, but there’s still room for improvement. Nimmala did start playing organized baseball at a later age, and there’s hope that his below-average contact skills might improve through more experience. He also tends to struggle to pick up spin, so as he progresses through the majors, just getting reps in should help shore up some of those issues.

Defensively, Nimmala needs to continue to put in the work to maintain at shortstop. With his frame not fully filled out yet, he may end up slowing down as he ages up, which would move him down the defensive spectrum to either second or third base. If he manages to bulk up while maintaining his agility and range it would make his outlook in the future much less variable. His arm strength has also been called into question, and he’s still raw defensively. He sometimes looks awkward, which led to 15 errors last season. If he’s able to iron out those kinks, it would also do wonders for his defensive outlook.

What’s Next
Nimmala is expected to start in high-A Vancouver, where he’ll try to prove that his second half wasn’t a fluke, but something that he could build upon. He’ll still be a teenager throughout the duration of the 2025 season, so he’ll be playing against more advanced competition in terms of age, and Nat Bailey Park is much more of a pitcher’s park. The good news is that Nimmala has already shown that he’ll adjust and work his way past setbacks.

 

View full article

 

I thought based on the limited viewings of Nimmala this spring that he has displayed a very strong arm at the short stop position.

[Simon Li]

1 hour ago, max silver said:

I thought based on the limited viewings of Nimmala this spring that he has displayed a very strong arm at the short stop position.

I've seen mixed reports, it's more the way he throws the ball is a little bit awkward, but I can definitely see him end up with a plus arm once he's fully developed. 

[Spanky99]

2 hours ago, max silver said:

I thought based on the limited viewings of Nimmala this spring that he has displayed a very strong arm at the short stop position.

Yeah brosoff, it's a 60 grade arm, well above average.