Article: Those Pete Alonso Blue Jays Rumors Are Starting To Make Sense

[Davy Andrews]

We already know he looks good in blue. Please don't yell at me.

I'm not saying the Blue Jays should definitely do this. That's not what I'm saying. The Blue Jays should do everything necessary to sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to an extension. However, when you look at the Toronto roster, you see a team without a DH. You see a team with one reliable power bat in Guerrero, and several bounce-back candidates behind him. What I'm trying to say is that I'm starting to understand rumors that the Blue Jays are "engaged in discussions" with Pete Alonso. Alonso is coming off the two worst seasons of his career, but even in those seasons, he still put up a 121 wRC+ with 80 home runs. If he really is willing to consider a three-year deal as reports indicated, well, we already know he looks pretty good mashing home runs in blue. Let's consider the variables.

First of all, Guerrero is the top priority. He's a homegrown talent and a fan favorite, he's one of the best pure hitters in the game, and he's only entering his age-26 season. He's the kind of player you lock down. So if the Blue Jays think they have a shot at extending Guerrero, but that signing Alonso could jeopardize it, then this idea should be a non-starter. However, we don't know if that's the case. Guerrero might welcome the chance to DH or play third from time to time. More importantly, he might just be glad that the Blue Jays are improving the roster and building a lineup where he doesn't have to do all the heavy lifting. Moreover, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon just reported that the Blue Jays and Guerrero haven't had extension talks since before Christmas. Talks are expected to continue, but Guerrero's spring training deadline for a moratorium on negotiations is looming very large in the windshield. If the team doesn't think they can lock him down, signing Alonso makes all the sense in the world.

Just for the sake of argument, allow me to point out that Alonso and Guerrero both debuted in 2019, and that they've provided nearly identical value to their clubs. Alonso has a 131 career wRC+ with 17.3 fWAR, while Guerrero is at 137 and 17.0. Guerrero is capable of higher highs, as he's put up two five-win seasons to Alonso's zero, but Alonso has shown a higher floor. He's never put up a WAR below 2.0 (except in the short 2020 season), while Guerrero has done that twice, and he's never put up a wRC+ below 120, which Guerero has done three times. I'm not saying Alonso will be better going forward, or that he should take Guerrero's place. I'm just saying that he's a reliable bat, and although he just turned 30 and hasn't been at his best in recent seasons, he'd make a pretty fantastic DH.

Imagine being an opposing pitcher and having to face Alonso and Guerrero back-to-back in the lineup. I know it's not ideal to roster two players who are so extremely similar. These are both right-handed power bats who are stuck providing sub-par first base defense. However, it's not as if the Blue Jays are fighting off free agents with a stick right now. Versatility is very valuable in today's game, and it's great to have a roster that fits together beautifully, but it's a lot more important to simply get the best players you can. We all laughed when the Phillies constructed an roster out of defensively challenged sluggers like Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, Rhys Hoskins, and Kyle Schwarber, but they've been one of the best teams in baseball for years now. Moreover, the Blue Jays really do have a space for Alonso.

I'm sure I don't need to tell you how many Blue Jays Steamer projects for a higher wRC+ than Alonso, but just in case, the answer is one: Guerrero. Right now, ZiPS projects the Blue Jays to get 0.9 WAR out of the DH spot from a combination of Will Wagner, George Springer, Davis Schneider, Orelvis Martinez, and Addison Barger. It makes sense to give Springer a DH day every once in a while, and I'm all for giving Wagner a longer look and finding out what he can do, but this is not a plan. With 25 ZiPS projections published, here are the teams with a worse projection at DH than the Blue Jays: the White Sox, Rockies, Marlins, Mariners, and Diamondbacks. If you're keeping score at home, that's the three worst teams in the league, one of the worst offenses in the game, and the Diamondbacks. This is not the company the Blue Jays want to be keeping. More importantly, it means that DH is a spot where a big free agent signing could make a drastic difference in the win-loss column, turning the position from a glaring weakness into a strength. It's starting to make sense.

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