General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[BTS]

The reason we have these circuitous arguments is because they are simply opinions in the absence of the most important input parameter, which is the market (player demands).

 

Jaysblue can opine on 1 year deals and financial flexibility going into next year, which everyone will agree restricts your options and on this basis alone amounts to punting 2024.

 

I can opine on Hoskins and Bellinger on multi year deals, which doesn't punt 2024 and reduces the number of holes on the team going into next offseason.

 

But ultimately the FO decision will be based on the market.

 

I don't think that's right. Punting or not punting is a binary thing. Going 1-year only might shave 0-2 projected wins off their 2024 total, but that's not a punt. And every team also 'punts' in that way anyway: nobody seeks to maximize 2024 wins at every position at all cost. Josh Hader is out there. Many good teams won't even offer him a deal. That will shave 1-2 wins off their 2024 projection, but nobody refers to that kind of decision as a punt of the season.

 

The A's are punting the season. The Jays preferring an 89-win projection with KK instead of a 90-win projection with Bellinger isn't a punt of 2024.

[Jimcanuck]

I don't think that's right. Punting or not punting is a binary thing. Going 1-year only might shave 0-2 projected wins off their 2024 total, but that's not a punt. And every team also 'punts' in that way anyway: nobody seeks to maximize 2024 wins at every position at all cost. Josh Hader is out there. Many good teams won't even offer him a deal. That will shave 1-2 wins off their 2024 projection, but nobody refers to that kind of decision as a punt of the season.

 

The A's are punting the season. The Jays preferring an 89-win projection with KK instead of a 90-win projection with Bellinger isn't a punt of 2024.

 

Well then here's a question for Jaysblue. Would you be happy if Bellinger signs with the Jays for 8/$160M

 

It would shave a fair bit off the financial flexiblity going into 2025

[Spanky__99]

Jim's got some tight heart strings to Belli.

[Jimcanuck]

Jim's got some tight heart strings to Belli.

 

He's one of the few remaining free agents that would really ramp up the Jays 2024 chances.

[Spanky__99]

He's one of the few remaining free agents that would really ramp up the Jays 2024 chances.

 

Possibly.

[Jimcanuck]

Possibly.

 

Based on team needs, I would probably rank them as Bellinger, Hoskins, Snell, Montgomery, Stroman

[Spanky__99]

Based on team needs, I would probably rank them as Bellinger, Hoskins, Snell, Montgomery, Stroman

 

Good luck on those last 3.

[Jimcanuck]

I don't think that's right. Punting or not punting is a binary thing. Going 1-year only might shave 0-2 projected wins off their 2024 total, but that's not a punt. And every team also 'punts' in that way anyway: nobody seeks to maximize 2024 wins at every position at all cost. Josh Hader is out there. Many good teams won't even offer him a deal. That will shave 1-2 wins off their 2024 projection, but nobody refers to that kind of decision as a punt of the season.

 

The A's are punting the season. The Jays preferring an 89-win projection with KK instead of a 90-win projection with Bellinger isn't a punt of 2024.

 

Depends on team needs. Obviously Hader is far less valuable to the Jays (Romano) then he would be to the Rangers (Leclerc). Hader to the Jays would yield less WAR than Hader to the Rangers.

 

Bellinger is an OF/1B and bats left. He probably yields more value to the Jays than perhaps any other MLB team.

[Frenchsoup]

So many trade possibilities Jimmy...

[Jimcanuck]

So many trade possibilities Jimmy...

 

Yes but Jays arent exactly in the best position to be making trades. But it's an option, sure.

[Frenchsoup]

A guy like Cronenworth would be very high on my list. He can push Biggio to Left Field and the contract isn't that bad if he stays on the field, which he should. I'd happilly give Manoah, Pearson and Barria for him.

[Jimcanuck]

A guy like Cronenworth would be very high on my list. He can push Biggio to Left Field and the contract isn't that bad if he stays on the field, which he should. I'd happilly give Manoah, Pearson and Barria for him.

 

Really???

[BTS]

A guy like Cronenworth would be very high on my list. He can push Biggio to Left Field and the contract isn't that bad if he stays on the field, which he should. I'd happilly give Manoah, Pearson and Barria for him.

 

Please stop trolling

[jaysblue]

Jaysblue can opine on 1 year deals and financial flexibility going into next year, which everyone will agree restricts your options and on this basis alone amounts to punting 2024.

 

What makes you think I want to punt the 2024 season and where did I ever suggest or say that?

[Jimcanuck]

What makes you think I want to punt the 2024 season and where did I ever suggest or say that?

 

Would you be happy if the Jays sign Bellinger for 8/$160M

[jaysblue]

Well then here's a question for Jaysblue. Would you be happy if Bellinger signs with the Jays for 8/$160M

 

It would shave a fair bit off the financial flexiblity going into 2025

 

I think I've stated numerous times if Bellinger's asking price becomes more reasonable like something similar to what George Springer signed for, I'm open to it. As long as his contract doesn't end up being an albatross.

 

8 years is a lot as well. The max I would sign Bellinger is for 5 to 6 years.

[Jimcanuck]

I think I've stated numerous times if Bellinger's asking price becomes more reasonable like something similar to what George Springer signed for, I'm open to it. As long as his contract doesn't end up being an albatross.

 

8 years is a lot as well. The max I would sign Bellinger is for 5 to 6 years.

 

so you would not be happy with 8/$160..... that's ridiculous

[jaysblue]

so you would not be happy with 8/$160..... that's ridiculous

 

Didn't I just say I would be open if he signed a George Springer like contract? Springer signed 6 years at $150M.

[Jimcanuck]

Didn't I just say I would be open if he signed a George Springer like contract? Springer signed 6 years at $150M.

 

But you wouldn't accept 8/$160.... again, ridiculous

[jaysblue]

But you wouldn't accept 8/$160.... again, ridiculous

 

I'd rather pay Bellinger a higher AAV if it meant shaving 2 or 3 years off his contract.

[Frenchsoup]

Please stop trolling

 

Im not Queen Beester

[L54]

i.e., punt 2024

 

I thought all you had to do was get into the post season? With a top 5 projected roster heading into the offseason the team should be set up well to add a few complimentary pieces and then roll the dice

[Jonn]

Would you be happy if the Jays sign Bellinger for 8/$160M

 

I know this wasn't asked to me but I would rather be punted in the nuts everyday of 2024 than giving Cody Bellinger 8 f***ing years at that number.

[L54]

I’d give Belli 8/160 but that’s not happening

 

I’d give Snell 5/100 too

 

Or Montgomery 3/60

 

Payroll flexibility is about AAV and not total dollars

[Frenchsoup]

Man Joc Pederson really packs the pounds on eh

[DonJays]

Im not Queen Beester

Maybe not but you are the biggest clown on these boards. f*** you. Merry Christmas everyone else

[Frenchsoup]

Sorry if i offended you dude lol it's just a Jake Cronenworth trade that would improve the club...lmao Merry Christmas Beautiful Soul

[Jays24]

There is no way anyone should be upset at getting Bellinger for 8/160. We all know that's not gonna happen.

 

My guess all along is that he gets 7/175 or 9/200.

[Jimcanuck]

I know this wasn't asked to me but I would rather be punted in the nuts everyday of 2024 than giving Cody Bellinger 8 f***ing years at that number.

 

Well you are dumn because half the teams in MLB would sign Bellinger for 8/$160

[max silver]

I don't think that's right. Punting or not punting is a binary thing. Going 1-year only might shave 0-2 projected wins off their 2024 total, but that's not a punt. And every team also 'punts' in that way anyway: nobody seeks to maximize 2024 wins at every position at all cost. Josh Hader is out there. Many good teams won't even offer him a deal. That will shave 1-2 wins off their 2024 projection, but nobody refers to that kind of decision as a punt of the season.

 

The A's are punting the season. The Jays preferring an 89-win projection with KK instead of a 90-win projection with Bellinger isn't a punt of 2024.

 

I think the Jays with Bellinger vs Kiermaier would receive more than a single win bump. Re-signing Kiermaier means that Varsho isn't spending full time in center field, and I think this alone costs the team another win at minimum, and potentially as many as 2 full wins given Varsho's relative value in center field defensively vs playing the bulk of his innings in left field again. It would be a tremendous waste of a guy who is potentially MLB's best outfield defender to have him spend another season in a corner outfield spot.

 

Kiermaier has a 1.1 win projection vs the 2.4 win projection for Bellinger, but unlike Kiermaier who's projection seems very reasonable I think Bellinger has a very good shot to beat his projection. He provided value commensurate to a 5 win player when you prorate his time to a full season of play. It seems unlikely he will be able to completely recreate the success on the field, but let's say he beats his projection to a very reasonable degree and produces a 3 win season compared to the single win season for Kiermaier. Now the split from Bellinger vs Kiermaier is suddenly 2 wins. Add that to the 1-2 wins from playing Varsho in center field for a full season and the team receives a 2 win increase in wins on the lower end, with a really easy path to enjoy a 4 win or more increase in wins between the two players if Varsho continues to be a 4 win center fielder as he has been in his career up to this point and if Bellinger maintains even a modest increase in his offensive gains as compared to the modest projection.