General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Omar]

So you can compare his WAR easy enough to another 1b. But the problem is, how you compare it to another position. Douchebag

 

Connor, the whole point of WAR, the reason it is widely used, is just so you can compare players value of different positions to each other.

[connorp]

I don’t see how it’s stupid that a player who can play shortstop is more valuable than a brick who stands at first place and catches ball but ok.

 

If 1b was only standing in place and catching a perfect throw that hit you in the glove, I’d be right with you

[connorp]

Connor, the whole point of WAR, the reason it is widely used, is just so you can compare players value of different positions to each other.

 

Umm.. yes.. so the argument would be that when comparing a 1b to other positions, he’s getting a raw deal because you’re taking away value from him before you even start comparing

[Jimcanuck]

If 1b was only standing in place and catching a perfect throw that hit you in the glove, I’d be right with you

 

Somehow you manage to sink even lower into the depths of stupidity.

[connorp]

Umm.. yes.. so the argument would be that when comparing a 1b to other positions, he’s getting a raw deal because you’re taking away value from him before you even start comparing

 

Also I’m assuming the player is ok being to as “him”. If the board thinks it’s better if I say they/them, Hurl can fix it

[Omar]

Umm.. yes.. so the argument would be that when comparing a 1b to other positions, he’s getting a raw deal because you’re taking away value from him before you even start comparing

 

1b has the advantage of playing an easier position which he then has an advantage in Fielding Runs above average. It all evens out in the wash. Otherwise it isn’t fair to compare Bo’s fielding percentage to Vladdy. One has a much harder job. WAR accounts for this with a positional adjustment.

[Daniel Labude]

I don’t see how it’s stupid that a player who can play shortstop is more valuable than a brick who stands at first place and catches ball but ok.

 

Put Kirk in CF and Kirk at 1B, to the team which position would he have more defensive value? To WAR, in CF he gets super boosted though he never makes a play there lmao

[Spanky99]

[connorp]

1b has the advantage of playing an easier position which he then has an advantage in Fielding Runs above average. It all evens out in the wash. Otherwise it isn’t fair to compare Bo’s fielding percentage to Vladdy. One has a much harder job. WAR accounts for this with a positional adjustment.

 

Fielding % is a terrible way to judge a 1b value, for starters. Other than point out who is really bad

[connorp]

 

Don’t worry, Spanky. For Xmas I’ll send you a coloring book and you can sit there quietly and make sure you stay in all the lines

[Captain_Obvious]

Put Kirk in CF and Kirk at 1B, to the team which position would he have more defensive value? To WAR, in CF he gets super boosted though he never makes a play there lmao

 

Dude.. Kirk's positional adjustment would get nullified and then he would get deep into negative defensive value as he misses all balls hit in his direction in CF. Same for Vlad.

 

Getting positive defensive value in CF is actually hard. Not many players can do it.

[Omar]

Fielding % is a terrible way to judge a 1b value, for starters. Other than point out who is really bad

 

That. Is. Why. Fielding Runs. Is. Used.

[Daniel Labude]

Dude.. Kirk's positional adjustment would get nullified and then he would get deep into negative defensive value as he misses all balls hit in his direction in CF. Same for Vlad.

 

Getting positive defensive value in CF is actually hard. Not many players can do it.

 

Partly, but there is still a default boost just for the position, which is where the problem is. There should be none. It should be soley actual value based on play. Then how defensive value is scored is flawed as well, it all comes together lol

[connorp]

That. Is. Why. Fielding Runs. Is. Used.

 

I get it. But the nuisances of 1b are hard to quantify

[wamco]

Well, my math skills are limited and my data-processing skills are essentially nonexistent. The younger guys are way, way beyond me in those areas.

But because that is true, I assumed that these were complex, nuanced, sophisticated systems. I never really looked; I just assumed that the details were out of my depth. But recently i took a look at them, and they’re not very impressive. They’re not well thought through; they haven’t made a convincing effort to address many of the inherent difficulties that the undertaking presents. They tend to get so far into the data, throw up their arms and make a wild guess.

[Captain_Obvious]

Partly, but there is still a default boost just for the position, which is where the problem is. There should be none. It should be soley actual value based on play. Then how defensive value is scored is flawed as well, it all comes together lol

 

The adjustment rewards players who play difficult positions. An average CF is much more valuable defensively than an average 1B.

[Captain_Obvious]

Well, my math skills are limited and my data-processing skills are essentially nonexistent. The younger guys are way, way beyond me in those areas.

But because that is true, I assumed that these were complex, nuanced, sophisticated systems. I never really looked; I just assumed that the details were out of my depth. But recently i took a look at them, and they’re not very impressive. They’re not well thought through; they haven’t made a convincing effort to address many of the inherent difficulties that the undertaking presents. They tend to get so far into the data, throw up their arms and make a wild guess.

 

Thank you, Einstein.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

Well, my math skills are limited and my data-processing skills are essentially nonexistent. The younger guys are way, way beyond me in those areas.

But because that is true, I assumed that these were complex, nuanced, sophisticated systems. I never really looked; I just assumed that the details were out of my depth. But recently i took a look at them, and they’re not very impressive. They’re not well thought through; they haven’t made a convincing effort to address many of the inherent difficulties that the undertaking presents. They tend to get so far into the data, throw up their arms and make a wild guess.

 

Trump is a Jays fan??

[Spanky99]

I get it. But the nuisances of 1b are hard to quantify

 

Every position is hard to quantify, but they *ARE* quantified at every position by defensive metrics, speaking of a nuisance, you are definitely one of them. Haha, you stunned stump. I see you hooked a couple dummies along for the ride, have at it fellas and buckle up those chin straps.

[connorp]

Every position is hard to quantify, but they *ARE* quantified at every position by defensive metrics, speaking of a nuisance, you are definitely one of them. Haha, you stunned stump. I see you hooked a couple dummies along for the ride, have at it fellas and buckle up those chin straps.

 

In one post you’re an UZR crusader, another an UZR hater. That just equals: spineless jellyfish

[Spanky99]

In one post you’re an UZR crusader, another an UZR hater. That just equals: spineless jellyfish

 

K.....

[Jimcanuck]

Defensive adjustment is simply a way to normalize defensive value based on position. The adjustment based on empirical analysis of thousands of fielding events.

 

Any statistical method is imprecise, so it's not perfect, but no one has yet come up with a better way to adjust for the fact that CF is a much harder defensive position than 1B, etc.

[Olerud363]

So you can compare his WAR easy enough to another 1b. But the problem is, how you compare it to another position. Douchebag

 

First add up all the offensive stuff that is easy to calculate and come up with a 'runs' contributed value.

 

Then if you wanted to do a quick and dirty comparison just use some kind of adjustment for each position. Like maybe give dh -20, 1b -15, lf/rf -5, 3b/2b +5, and cf/ss/c +15.

 

This will give you a pretty good approximation of value. Of course it won't tell you who is the best 1b, cf, etc. but it won't be too bad an estimate because a first basemen is there because he can't make the same contributions on defense a centerfielder or short stop can.

[Spanky99]

First add up all the offensive stuff that is easy to calculate and come up with a 'runs' contributed value.

 

Then if you wanted to do a quick and dirty comparison just use some kind of adjustment for each position. Like maybe give dh -20, 1b -15, lf/rf -5, 3b/2b +5, and cf/ss/c +15.

 

This will give you a pretty good approximation of value. Of course it won't tell you who is the best 1b, cf, etc. but it won't be too bad an estimate because a first basemen is there because he can't make the same contributions on defense a centerfielder or short stop can.

 

There's a table listed in the equation, Olerud?

 

Catcher: +12.5 runs (all are per 162 defensive games)

First Base: -12.5 runs

Second Base: +2.5 runs

Third Base: +2.5 runs

Shortstop: +7.5 runs

Left Field: -7.5 runs

Center Field: +2.5 runs

Right Field: -7.5 runs

Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs

[Jimcanuck]

Another way to look at it.

 

There are about 550 MLB players that can probably play 1B effectively. There are about 80 MLB that can probably play CF effectively. Less than 80 can play SS or C effectively.

 

Players will skills in shorter supply have more value to a team. Economics 101.

[Daniel Labude]

Defensive adjustment is simply a way to normalize defensive value based on position. The adjustment based on empirical analysis of thousands of fielding events.

 

Any statistical method is imprecise, so it's not perfect, but no one has yet come up with a better way to adjust for the fact that CF is a much harder defensive position than 1B, etc.

 

There is no better system yet, that part I agree with. Maybe someday. Still worth pointing out the flaws and negatives of it to get a better context from time to time

[bluejaysinternNo5]

There is no better system yet, that part I agree with. Maybe someday. Still worth pointing out the flaws and negatives of it to get a better context from time to time

 

Absolutely. Glad we can all agree that Vlad kind of sucks this season after all those pages of discourse 😉

[Olerud363]

There is no better system yet, that part I agree with. Maybe someday. Still worth pointing out the flaws and negatives of it to get a better context from time to time

 

The biggest problem with Vlad's D measurement this year isn't the positional adjustment, if he keeps going at this rate he is going to end up 10 runs below the adjustment.

 

Spanky pointed out the adjustment is -12.5. So a really good first basemen, 10 above average will end up still negative by a bit... problem is Vlad is going to end up -22 or something...

 

Fangraphs is rating him way below average for firstbase independent of the adjustment. Why I wonder...

[Spanky99]

The biggest problem with Vlad's D measurement this year isn't the positional adjustment, if he keeps going at this rate he is going to end up 10 runs below the adjustment.

 

Spanky pointed out the adjustment is -12.5. So a really good first basemen, 10 above average will end up still negative by a bit... problem is Vlad is going to end up -22 or something...

 

Fangraphs is rating him way below average for firstbase independent of the adjustment. Why I wonder...

 

He's likely been s***, but that's a good question, I've asked many times, no-one has the answer, is it UZR/DRS or OAA??? I mean we all know teams have their own internal analytics, but us plebs are left puzzled at it, all 3 fluctuate from year to year(just look at Vlad), do we merge them all together and come to that conclusion? I know I've been doing that.

[John_Havok]

The biggest problem with Vlad's D measurement this year isn't the positional adjustment, if he keeps going at this rate he is going to end up 10 runs below the adjustment.

 

Spanky pointed out the adjustment is -12.5. So a really good first basemen, 10 above average will end up still negative by a bit... problem is Vlad is going to end up -22 or something...

 

Fangraphs is rating him way below average for firstbase independent of the adjustment. Why I wonder...

 

Because he really sucks at balls being hit to his non glove side this season and on ones he's had to charge in on. Glove side he's about average.