GDT: 1/4 Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians

[Spanky99]

You guys are arguing with a complete idiot.

 

You might as well take a s*** on the floor and try to argue with that.

 

Did you read my post, that's not arguing with the POS?

[connorp]

I’ll side JF here.

 

Spanky referred to it as 1a,1b,1c. Based on Berrios half-season with the Jays now, and his career numbers, he doesn’t belong with other two rn

[connorp]

What’s WAR matter when you get to the post/season. If you want to be a FIP person, only thing that matters is the FIP. The 4.00+ FIP

[Stangstag]

I’ll side JF here.

 

Spanky referred to it as 1a,1b,1c. Based on Berrios half-season with the Jays now, and his career numbers, he doesn’t belong with other two rn

 

I can’t believe you’ve done this

[JuniorFelix54]

How many teams are there league wide where Gausman, Manoah and Berrios couldn't crack the starting rotation? Yeah that's what I thought. Also since when is "tier below the handful of elite ACES" equal to superstar?

 

You should re-read Spankys post so you don't end up arguing against points he never made.

 

I did read it, he said the Jays have 3 aces 1A, 1B and 1C which is a joke because Gausman and Manoah are nothing like Berrios

[jaysblue]

Berrios has had an awful start, but it's only been 6 starts and he's a proven top MLB starter. I'm not too worried and sure he'll turn it around this season. He's not an ace like a DeGrom etc. Berrios reminds me of an AJ Burnett.

[Benito]

I don't understand why people are making definitive comparisons between Manoah and Berrios after only 5 starts? Alek has 142 IP under his belt. Jose 880 IP. If you want to compare just FIP, in 192 innings last year, Jose had a 3.47 FIP, which is a more similar number of innings to Alek's 142 IP, and his 3.66 overall FIP. Jose absolutely belongs with Alek.

 

No one knows what trajectory Manoah's career will go. He definitely has a chance to surpass Jose by year's end and going forward, and that would be absolutely outstanding as a Jays fan. But anointing Alek as a league above Jose after only 31 innings to start the season is silly. Manoah isn't going to maintain a 1.47 era for the season, and Berrios isn't going to stay at 5.34 era. They each have about 25 starts remaining and I'm guessing their numbers will be similar by year's end.

[Spanky99]

I don't understand why people are making definitive comparisons between Manoah and Berrios after only 5 starts? Alek has 142 IP under his belt. Jose 880 IP. If you want to compare just FIP, in 192 innings last year, Jose had a 3.47 FIP, which is a more similar number of innings to Alek's 142 IP, and his 3.66 overall FIP. Jose absolutely belongs with Alek.

 

No one knows what trajectory Manoah's career will go. He definitely has a chance to surpass Jose by year's end and going forward, and that would be absolutely outstanding as a Jays fan. But anointing Alek as a league above Jose after only 31 innings to start the season is silly. Manoah isn't going to maintain a 1.47 era for the season, and Berrios isn't going to stay at 5.34 era. They each have about 25 starts remaining and I'm guessing their numbers will be similar by year's end.

 

Post more, thanks.

[jaysblue]

If Berrios can replicate seasons like Burnett's 2008 over the next couple of years, I'll take that in a heartbeat. Good chance he does if he's healthy.

[Stangstag]

I don't understand why people are making definitive comparisons between Manoah and Berrios after only 5 starts? Alek has 142 IP under his belt. Jose 880 IP. If you want to compare just FIP, in 192 innings last year, Jose had a 3.47 FIP, which is a more similar number of innings to Alek's 142 IP, and his 3.66 overall FIP. Jose absolutely belongs with Alek.

 

No one knows what trajectory Manoah's career will go. He definitely has a chance to surpass Jose by year's end and going forward, and that would be absolutely outstanding as a Jays fan. But anointing Alek as a league above Jose after only 31 innings to start the season is silly. Manoah isn't going to maintain a 1.47 era for the season, and Berrios isn't going to stay at 5.34 era. They each have about 25 starts remaining and I'm guessing their numbers will be similar by year's end.

 

Agree with this. Everyone has recency bias… Berrios and Bo suck, Biggio is a waste of a roster spot, Ryu forgot how to pitch, Kirk should be sent to AAA, Espinal should hit leadoff, etc

[Stangstag]

If Berrios can replicate seasons like Burnett's 2008 over the next couple of years, I'll take that in a heartbeat. Good chance he does if he's healthy.

 

Hell yeah. La Makina gotta take it to the NEXT LEVEL

[Spanky99]

Agree with this. Everyone has recency bias… Berrios and Bo suck, Biggio is a waste of a roster spot, Ryu forgot how to pitch, Kirk should be sent to AAA, Espinal should hit leadoff, etc

 

It's mind numbing, glad it's not as prominent on here than other forums.

[max silver]

Agree with this. Everyone has recency bias… Berrios and Bo suck, Biggio is a waste of a roster spot, Ryu forgot how to pitch, Kirk should be sent to AAA, Espinal should hit leadoff, etc

 

I agree with most of this but I would absolutely hit Espinal in the leadoff spot on days when Springer is unavailable. The alternative seems to be Tapia up to this point so it should be an easy choice between the two.

[connorp]

Berrios has had an awful start, but it's only been 6 starts and he's a proven top MLB starter. I'm not too worried and sure he'll turn it around this season. He's not an ace like a DeGrom etc. Berrios reminds me of an AJ Burnett.

 

Best sample size for Berrios would be his time with the Jays. 12 last year plus thing year, probably slightly worse or same as career average. I’m not sure anyone is suggesting he’s as bad as these starts this year. But let’s not pump a 4.00 FIP pitcher as elite. He’s inconsistent. Has been his whole career. Still a really good pitcher to have but that’s the facts.

 

As for Manoah, he looks like a stud. Yes, there a little bit on fanboy thinking he’s this legit, but while he’s pitching like this and some of his gems last year, he deserves some homer optimism and it’s reasonable rn to have a lot more confidence when he’s pitching than smelly JB rn

[Stangstag]

I agree with most of this but I would absolutely hit Espinal in the leadoff spot on days when Springer is unavailable. The alternative seems to be Tapia up to this point so it should be an easy choice between the two.

 

What’s wrong with having Lourdes or Chapman leading off? Both are clearly better hitters than Espinal and Tapia

[jaysblue]

Best sample size for Berrios would be his time with the Jays. 12 last year plus thing year, probably slightly worse or same as career average. I’m not sure anyone is suggesting he’s as bad as these starts this year. But let’s not pump a 4.00 FIP pitcher as elite. He’s inconsistent. Has been his whole career. Still a really good pitcher to have but that’s the facts.

 

As for Manoah, he looks like a stud. Yes, there a little bit on fanboy thinking he’s this legit, but while he’s pitching like this and some of his gems last year, he deserves some homer optimism and it’s reasonable rn to have a lot more confidence when he’s pitching than smelly JB rn

 

Yeah Berrios isn't in the same class like a Verlander, Kershaw, Scherzer, de Grom, Doc, etc., though he's still a solid proven front of the rotation arm. Like I said, reminds me of AJ Burnett. He was inconsistent sometimes as well, but when he was on, he was lights out. I'm happy with Berrios giving the Jays 200 + innings every season, an ERA and FIP between 3.50-4.00 with 190-200K's. The one advantage he has is that he's still only 27, so definitely still some room to raise the bar a bit. But even if he doesn't and keeps things the status quo, he's still a quality arm for the front of this Jays rotation.

[connorp]

Yeah Berrios isn't in the same class like a Verlander, Kershaw, Scherzer, de Grom, Doc, etc., though he's still a solid proven front of the rotation arm. Like I said, reminds me of AJ Burnett. He was inconsistent sometimes as well, but when he was on, he was lights out. I'm happy with Berrios giving the Jays 200 + innings every season, an ERA and FIP between 3.50-4.00 with 190-200K's. The one advantage he has is that he's still only 27, so definitely still some room to raise the bar a bit. But even if he doesn't and keeps things the status quo, he's still a quality arm for the front of this Jays rotation.

 

I was actually hopeful Berrios was more of the 3.50 guy than 4.00 career he’s been, like he closed out with the Jays last year. Hopefully he can get to that.

[Spanky99]

Yeah Berrios isn't in the same class like a Verlander, Kershaw, Scherzer, de Grom, Doc, etc., though he's still a solid proven front of the rotation arm. Like I said, reminds me of AJ Burnett. He was inconsistent sometimes as well, but when he was on, he was lights out. I'm happy with Berrios giving the Jays 200 + innings every season, an ERA and FIP between 3.50-4.00 with 190-200K's. The one advantage he has is that he's still only 27, so definitely still some room to raise the bar a bit. But even if he doesn't and keeps things the status quo, he's still a quality arm for the front of this Jays rotation.

 

No one said he's elite, an ace staff member on other teams, absolutely. He's right there in the tier below ELITE starters, stop sniffing what Baldilocks is selling. lol... our staff is great.

[jaysblue]

I was actually hopeful Berrios was more of the 3.50 guy than 4.00 career he’s been, like he closed out with the Jays last year. Hopefully he can get to that.

 

Yeah that's the hope. Given his age, he still can. Burnett posted a 4.07 ERA in 2008 with a 3.45 FIP and 5.0 WAR. Berrios even with an ERA closer to 4 can still provide that same type of value.

[jaysblue]

No one said he's elite, an ace staff member on other teams, absolutely. He's right there in the tier below ELITE starters, stop sniffing what Baldilocks is selling. lol... our staff is great.

 

Haha yeah agreed, he's an AJ Burnett which ain't bad and I'll take that moving forward. Jays have a great staff even if they don't have a legitimate No. 1 elite arm, but Gausman might be that guy!

[Spanky99]

Haha yeah agreed, he's an AJ Burnett which ain't bad and I'll take that moving forward. Jays have a great staff even if they don't have a legitimate No. 1 elite arm, but Gausman might be that guy!

 

He sure looks like it, I'm glad we passed on Ray.

[max silver]

What’s wrong with having Lourdes or Chapman leading off? Both are clearly better hitters than Espinal and Tapia

 

I would complain far less if Gurriel or Chapman were to bat leadoff vs Tapia but neither of them is a very good choice for leadoff as they simply haven't been able to find their way onto base with any regularity. Perhaps over the course of an entire season Gurriel and Chapman will each have better numbers than Espinal but that's not the case for the season as a whole. If you go back over the last two seasons Espinal has the best WRC+ of the three at 114, Chapman is at 101, and Gurriel is 106. The numbers don't really back up either Chapman or Gurriel clearly better hitters although to be fair Espinal didn't necessarily earn his numbers last season and Gurriel is super streaky and hasn't hit his yearly hot streak yet.

 

I tend to think lineup construction should be a bit dynamic based on who's hot and who's not. Guys like Springer, Teoscar, Vladdy etc. can be more or less locked into place based on the quality of at bats they tend to regularly have, but everybody else should be shifted up or down as needed. If you look at the last two weeks Chapman has an OBP of .218, Gurriel is at .259 and Espinal is at .347. One of these to my eyes is a far better leadoff choice than the other two for this reason alone. Espinal has outperformed each of these hitters by most objective measures and his expected stats back that up as well. Among the regular starters he's produced the 3rd best WRC+ on the team and to me it makes sense to get him more at bats and not bury him at the bottom of the lineup on days when Springer is unavailable. There's no way Tapia should ever be receiving more at bats given what we've seen offensively from each player so far this season.

[Stangstag]

I tend to think lineup construction should be a bit dynamic based on who's hot and who's not. Guys like Springer, Teoscar, Vladdy etc. can be more or less locked into place based on the quality of at bats they tend to regularly have, but everybody else should be shifted up or down as needed. If you look at the last two weeks Chapman has an OBP of .218, Gurriel is at .259 and Espinal is at .347. One of these to my eyes is a far better leadoff choice than the other two for this reason alone. Espinal has outperformed each of these hitters by most objective measures and his expected stats back that up as well. Among the regular starters he's produced the 3rd best WRC+ on the team and to me it makes sense to get him more at bats and not bury him at the bottom of the lineup on days when Springer is unavailable. There's no way Tapia should ever be receiving more at bats given what we've seen offensively from each player so far this season.

 

I hadn’t looked too deeply into their numbers this season, that’s pretty shocking. You may have convinced me about Espy leadoff.