Around Baseball 2022

[G-Snarls]

Ah didn’t realize Feyereisen was out for 2023

 

He underwent shoulder surgery last week and is expected to be sidelined into late August

[Jonn]

Giants fans on Twitter are so mad lol

[THANOS]

Yikes, never.

 

Why are you looking down your nose at Cristian Javier?

[connorp]

If you’re a believer in the $10m/WAR standard, it all jives man. I’m talking about of my ass but it seems baseball aav has been more stagnant in the past decade than the other sports. It seems they prefer to stretch it out for cap purposes. But an “A” star demanding $40m/year is probably on par with the times. Correa 9/360

 

1-5 years= 25 WAR

6-9- avg of like 2.7 and he’s there.

 

Seems doable for sure, as his skill should age well.

 

10-13 is 4 years of dead money. Is what it is. You get 5 years of a star player, few years of solid player.. deal is paid for

[connorp]

Of course Correa has to stay on the field.. so he may have to make up a few WAR after first 5 years

[BTS]

If you’re a believer in the $10m/WAR standard, it all jives man. I’m talking about of my ass but it seems baseball aav has been more stagnant in the past decade than the other sports. It seems they prefer to stretch it out for cap purposes. But an “A” star demanding $40m/year is probably on par with the times. Correa 9/360

 

1-5 years= 25 WAR

6-9- avg of like 2.7 and he’s there.

 

Seems doable for sure, as his skill should age well.

 

10-13 is 4 years of dead money. Is what it is. You get 5 years of a star player, few years of solid player.. deal is paid for

 

What is it about Correa that makes you think his skill should age well?

[wilko]

What is it about Correa that makes you think his skill should age well?

 

His body should be good for a while because he's been on the DL so much.

[connorp]

What is it about Correa that makes you think his skill should age well?

 

His build over Bogey for starters. I think he’s a legit 25/hr per 150 guy and will stay that way. So after 5 years, he could move off SS and probably be a quality 3b

[Laika]

I'd probably curve Correa like this

 

5 WAR (age 28)

5 WAR

4.5 WAR

4 WAR

3.5 WAR

3 WAR

2 WAR

1 WAR

0 WAR (age 36)

0 WAR

0 WAR

0 WAR

0 WAR (age 40; end of contract)

 

Of course he's a superstar so he can always pop off a 7 WAR season in here, or stay good for longer.

[wilko]

His build over Bogey for starters. I think he’s a legit 25/hr per 150 guy and will stay that way. So after 5 years, he could move off SS and probably be a quality 3b

 

He hit over 25HR once in 8 years. More of a legit 19HR hitter.

[Captain_Obvious]

I'd probably curve Correa like this

 

5 WAR (age 28)

5 WAR

4.5 WAR

4 WAR

3.5 WAR

3 WAR

2 WAR

1 WAR

0 WAR (age 36)

0 WAR

0 WAR

0 WAR

0 WAR (age 40; end of contract)

 

Of course he's a superstar so he can always pop off a 7 WAR season in here, or stay good for longer.

 

Or he could follow the Tulo curve:

 

5, 5, 2.5, 2.5, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0

[Laika]

Or he could follow the Tulo curve:

 

5, 5, 2.5, 2.5, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0

 

lol yes of course

 

that's so scary to think about

[Stangstag]

Or he could follow the Tulo curve:

 

5, 5, 2.5, 2.5, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0

 

That would be rough for the Giants

[xposbrad]

Or he could follow the Tulo curve:

 

5, 5, 2.5, 2.5, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0

 

 

All these contracts for guys over 35 are extremely risky but clubs are still giving them out. If you get to the WS or even win, the merch/tv sales + franchise value increase offsets the 30-70m you might lose on WAR value easily.

[connorp]

He hit over 25HR once in 8 years. More of a legit 19HR hitter.

 

I said per 150. Quick math it’s 26 per lifetime

[BTS]

Or he could follow the Tulo curve:

 

5, 5, 2.5, 2.5, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0

 

Tulo is who he reminds me of. Big SS with an injury history who is already showing signs of declining athleticism. There's a not that unlikely world in which Correa as almost immediately an all-bat SS without elite power who hits in one of the biggest HR suppressing parks in the league.

[connorp]

All these contracts for guys over 35 are extremely risky but clubs are still giving them out. If you get to the WS or even win, the merch/tv sales + franchise value increase offsets the 30-70m you might lose on WAR value easily.

 

Now there’s at least two here that can see it from another lens

[connorp]

Tulo is who he reminds me of. Big SS with an injury history who is already showing signs of declining athleticism. There's a not that unlikely world in which Correa as almost immediately an all-bat SS without elite power who hits in one of the biggest HR suppressing parks in the league.

 

LOFL. So we can lick the nuts of a 34yo CF coming off major surgery but let’s say Correa is done being a plus SS at 28

Got it

[Jimcanuck]

LOFL. So we can lick the nuts of a 34yo CF coming off major surgery but let’s say Correa is done being a plus SS at 28

Got it

 

Are you dense? Nobody is saying this

 

The Correa deal is ridiculous. SF and other teams must be banking on a significant drop in the value of the greenback or something

[Stangstag]

All these contracts for guys over 35 are extremely risky but clubs are still giving them out. If you get to the WS or even win, the merch/tv sales + franchise value increase offsets the 30-70m you might lose on WAR value easily.

 

Merch sales are revenue shared between teams so that doesn’t count.

 

TV deals yes but Idk I think we just haven’t seen enough of these long deals blow up yet that teams are shying away. Off the top of my head there’s Pujols/Miggy/Fielder… Arod was fine until the last couple years.

[BTS]

LOFL. So we can lick the nuts of a 34yo CF coming off major surgery but let’s say Correa is done being a plus SS at 28

Got it

 

Correa's speed and baserunning has been declining his entire career, to the point where he's now below average, and his defense took a big hit in 2022. He wasn't a plus defensive SS at 27, so its reasonable to think he probably won't be at 28. That bat is going to carry him to 3-5 win seasons in the short term if he stays healthy.

 

I don't know what Kiermaier has to do with this. He's probably going to put up 1-2 WAR in 500 PA for 8-10M. Also he's beautiful.

[connorp]

Are you dense? Nobody is saying this

 

The Correa deal is ridiculous. SF and other teams must be banking on a significant drop in the value of the greenback or something

 

Are you dense Jimbo? That’s rhetorical. He called Correa an all bat SS starting almost immediately and I pointed out the clear irony of how everyone is so thrilled with KK

[connorp]

Correa's speed and baserunning has been declining his entire career, to the point where he's now below average, and his defense took a big hit in 2022. He wasn't a plus defensive SS at 27, so its reasonable to think he probably won't be at 28. That bat is going to carry him to 3-5 win seasons in the short term if he stays healthy.

 

I don't know what Kiermaier has to do with this. He's probably going to put up 1-2 WAR in 500 PA for 8-10M. Also he's beautiful.

 

Come on. Even you sabr guys know you can’t just take 1 year of D sample size and make a judgement he’s on the decline. Otherwise, again in the context of D, you could say KK was on a major decline even before the surgery

[wilko]

I said per 150. Quick math it’s 26 per lifetime

 

Ohh you said 150. You mean the one year he played over 150 games?

[BTS]

Come on. Even you sabr guys know you can’t just take 1 year of D sample size and make a judgement he’s on the decline. Otherwise, again in the context of D, you could say KK was on a major decline even before the surgery

 

Defense tends to start declining at 26 or so. A big SS like Correa with rapidly declining speed and a long injury history seeing his defense decline at 27, is like, the most expected trajectory imaginable.

[connorp]

Ohh you said 150. You mean the one year he played over 150 games?

 

Well, that’s the rub. I can totally get that side of things

[max silver]

Merch sales are revenue shared between teams so that doesn’t count.

 

TV deals yes but Idk I think we just haven’t seen enough of these long deals blow up yet that teams are shying away. Off the top of my head there’s Pujols/Miggy/Fielder… Arod was fine until the last couple years.

 

Arod was likely taking every available PED known to man so he's not the best example of a player who defied father time.

[Horses Fart]

So if Bo holds his own until contract time how much do u offer him and what do u realistically think he gets.

[Laika]

So if Bo holds his own until contract time how much do u offer him and what do u realistically think he gets.

 

He'll be super young

 

If he looks like a shortstop at that point then he should at a minimum get the Bogaerts deal, depending on the economy and all that s***.

 

It changes a lot if he does not look like a viable SS then.

[G-Snarls]

He'll be super young

 

If he looks like a shortstop at that point then he should at a minimum get the Bogaerts deal, depending on the economy and all that s***.

 

It changes a lot if he does not look like a viable SS then.

 

Now is the time to start the deal of you ever will

 

So you're paying him until 36/37 instead of 40

 

His bat is good enough to play at other positions

 

 

 

Or trade him now

Edited December 14, 2022 by G-Snarls