Vlad Jr. to Indy Ball

[Daniel Labude]

How has all that defensive WAR worked for our offense lmao

[thatoneguy]

Someone needs to hammer it into him that his conditioning and approach to hitting is not acceptable at the major league level. Would love that to be his father lol, but Vladdy Sr. could get away with flailing because he somehow made contact on everything.

[Olerud363]

and how has that worked out for the Padres?

 

The Vlad vs Triston Casas race is really heating up with Vlad only .1 WAR ahead, 0.3 to 0.2

 

Vlad vs Torkelson is also close with Torkelson ahead.

 

And for those of you who think this is unfair to Vlad because fangraphs doesn't measure his Gold Glove defense right, note that Casas' on base and slugging are almost the same as Vlad's now.

 

I will admit Gio Urshela is only ahead because of defense... Anyway the second page of first basemen is a very tight race.... (Yup, Vlad not on first page anymore, out of top 30 1b men).

 

31 Gio Urshela LAA 62 228 2 22 24 3 4.4% 15.8% .075 .346 .299 .329 .374 .308 .288 93 -1.8 -3.7 -0.2 0.4

32 Spencer Torkelson DET 92 397 14 48 51 2 9.6% 24.2% .184 .276 .232 .310 .416 .315 .336 101 -0.4 0.0 -9.6 0.4

33 Grae Kessinger HOU 10 24 1 2 1 0 20.8% 12.5% .211 .267 .263 .417 .474 .392 .469 154 -0.4 1.2 1.7 0.4

34 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR 92 401 14 45 60 4 8.0% 15.7% .173 .291 .271 .339 .444 .339 .396 117 -3.2 5.0 -15.4 0.3

35 Mike Moustakas - - - 63 199 8 28 25 0 10.1% 26.6% .179 .313 .254 .337 .434 .333 .324 99 -0.5 -0.8 -3.6 0.2

36 Triston Casas BOS 83 308 12 38 32 0 14.0% 25.3% .198 .286 .236 .341 .433 .338 .353 110 -1.4 2.4 -10.8 0.2

[tossingthiscoin]

Literally, any replacement-level player can replace Vladdy.

[Omar]

This thread right now....

 

[tossingthiscoin]

Vlad's career war according to Fangraphs:

 

2019: -0.2

2020: 0.2

2021: 6.3

2022: 2.8

2023: 0.3

 

Guys like Soto and Tatis are better than him.

[hanton]

Vlad isn't keeping his average and on base percentage high. Juan Soto's on base percentage is 90 points higher.

 

In 2023 he is about a 0 WAR player. That means any random guy could replace him. Could Horwitz put up 0 WAR?? Maybe not. But Maybe.

 

If you need a first basemen as good as 2023 Vlad (who is ranked like 25th or something out of 30), you randomly sign a guy, or you randomly trade middle infielders like Schneider for a minor league 1st basemen.

 

Will Vlad continue to be a 0 WAR player? I don't know. Probably not, but the decision to release him would be based on him not being worth his 24 million or whatever in arbitration, so even if you thought he was 2 WAR it still makes sense to replace him.

 

If that's true why do the Jays keep him? release him right now

[Olerud363]

If that's true why do the Jays keep him? release him right now

 

He's not getting released right now.

 

It would be a serious discussion this winter if he ends up at 0 WAR and is due 25 million in arbitration. He probably doesn't get released because of the nightmare scenario of winning a triple crown for the red sox or something.

 

If he does this until the end of next year would they re-up for another 25 million? Man... then it gets hard.

 

Probably won't get released because the underlying risk of a competitor getting a 2021 or better level season from him for cheap.

 

I think that was harder to see happening with Bellinger because his numbers were so messed up, but would be easier to see a .270 .330 .450 hitter still making solid contact rediscover the MVP level.

[Olerud363]

He's not getting released right now.

 

It would be a serious discussion this winter if he ends up at 0 WAR and is due 25 million in arbitration. He probably doesn't get released because of the nightmare scenario of winning a triple crown for the red sox or something.

 

He's at 15 million or so right now. It will be interesting to see his arbitration numbers next year.

 

Team is going to use the advanced analytics to try and get a decrease, but Vlad's team would use All star appearances, career counting stats, the gold glove and RBIs to try and get 20+ million. The team might come in at 12 million and the agent at 22 million or something. What do you guys think?

 

It's still possible to release a guy in spring training and not have to pay the full years salary right? What happens if Vlad won a 24 million dollar arbitration case, off a 0 WAR year, and came into spring training out of shape?

[tossingthiscoin]

It's very hard to believe Vlad's FWAR would've been higher if he was a full-time DH this season. Ohtani is a DH, but his defensive war is higher than Vlad's.

 

It shows how his defense is hurting this team...

[Olerud363]

It's very hard to believe Vlad's FWAR would've been higher if he was a full-time DH this season. Ohtani is a DH, but his defensive war is higher than Vlad's.

 

It shows how his defense is hurting this team...

 

As much as I am giving Vlad a hard time I don't totally buy the historically bad fWAR defense. According to fangraphs he is having one of the worst d-seasons in Jays history not sure that is real.

[tossingthiscoin]

As much as I am giving Vlad a hard time I don't totally buy the historically bad fWAR defense. According to fangraphs he is having one of the worst d-seasons in Jays history not sure that is real.

 

I hope so. Perhaps OAA was not 100% accurate for Vlad's defense.

[Terminator]

Gotta love the board after a loss.

 

The village idiots come out of the woodwork to post a bunch of crap from congratulating the Orioles on taking the division lead to suggesting that demoting or even releasing Vlad is a possibility lol

[BTS]

Vlad's xwOBA is almost 0.400 and he put up like 9 fWAR over the previous two seasons. His career to date has mostly been disappointing, but like 20 teams would have interest in trading for him if Toronto wanted to go in a different direction.

[BlueBaller]

For any Vlad defenders I'm interested in how long of a rope does he get.

 

Will he always be a potential HOF'er to these guys because he was a teenaged phenom?

[hanton]

He's not getting released right now.

 

It would be a serious discussion this winter if he ends up at 0 WAR and is due 25 million in arbitration. He probably doesn't get released because of the nightmare scenario of winning a triple crown for the red sox or something.

 

If he does this until the end of next year would they re-up for another 25 million? Man... then it gets hard.

for sure but why would Vlady's arb come in at 25M? maybe it comes into play in his last arb year but certainly won't be this winter.

Probably won't get released because the underlying risk of a competitor getting a 2021 or better level season from him for cheap.

 

I think that was harder to see happening with Bellinger because his numbers were so messed up, but would be easier to see a .270 .330 .450 hitter still making solid contact rediscover the MVP level.

 

I doubt we see the Bellinger numbers - he was bottom of the barrel bad and yes absolutely mvp numbers are still possible

[Daniel Labude]

Gotta love the board after a loss.

 

The village idiots come out of the woodwork to post a bunch of crap from congratulating the Orioles on taking the division lead to suggesting that demoting or even releasing Vlad is a possibility lol

 

Vlad's xwOBA is almost 0.400 and he put up like 9 fWAR over the previous two seasons. His career to date has mostly been disappointing, but like 20 teams would have interest in trading for him if Toronto wanted to go in a different direction.

 

This whole thread reminds me of this

 

[BigCecil]

Its very fair to be critical of Vlad and some of the issues raised are legit, but its still hard to fathom this is even a real thread.

[hanton]

For any Vlad defenders I'm interested in how long of a rope does he get.

 

Will he always be a potential HOF'er to these guys because he was a teenaged phenom?

 

I don't know what do you think?

[BlueBaller]

I don't know what do you think?

I think he sucks.

[hanton]

I think he sucks.

 

so how long a rope?

[BlueBaller]

He's out of rope.

[Olerud363]

Its very fair to be critical of Vlad and some of the issues raised are legit, but its still hard to fathom this is even a real thread.

 

The thread was started as a partial joke after 2 years of replacement level play, admittedly because of Covid they weren't full years. Now that he's done another 4 months of replacement level play it's back.

 

The talk of him getting demoted is dumb, the talk of him getting released if he's in line for a 20+ million salary after a replacement level season isn't dumb, it would be a distinct possibility if this kept up for another year.

[Olerud363]

Vlad's xwOBA is almost 0.400 and he put up like 9 fWAR over the previous two seasons. His career to date has mostly been disappointing, but like 20 teams would have interest in trading for him if Toronto wanted to go in a different direction.

 

 

Bellinger put up 9 fWAR to in his previous 2 seasons before going into a 2 year slump. Vlad isn't getting released tomorrow, but if his combined 2023/24 WAR is where Bellinger's was it's a possibility.

 

Some have mentioned his xwOBA is deceiving because he doesn't pull the ball in the air much anymore. His pull % seems OK, but I wonder if you crunched the data more you'd find some consistent pattern to explain the results. Like maybe his pull percentage is OK because he is pulling the ball hard on the ground, but all his fly balls are to center.

 

It reminds me of Kendry Morrales. He also ran an xOBA of almost .400 for a couple years before the Jays signed him, and there was talk they loved the batted ball data, but he still under-performed EE. In 2015-2019 their xwOBA was close but Kendry under-performed his by more than EE. Pattern held for several years.

 

Would you pay Kendry Morales 25 million?

[Spanky99]

Its very fair to be critical of Vlad and some of the issues raised are legit, but its still hard to fathom this is even a real thread.

 

This thread is AIDS.

[Olerud363]

Gotta love the board after a loss.

 

The village idiots come out of the woodwork to post a bunch of crap from congratulating the Orioles on taking the division lead to suggesting that demoting or even releasing Vlad is a possibility lol

 

I'm an Orioles admirer (not an Orioles fan) because I like what they are doing with player development, everybody is giving us a hard time because supposedly the Orioles are only successful because they got so many high 1st round picks.

 

That's ********. They are successful because they are executing the picks and developing the talent into a good team.

 

Rutchman and Henderson both have underlying batted ball stats and xOBA way worse than Vlad, except they are fit, can run the bases, don't swing at balls (!) and are on pace for 4 WAR each.

 

The gaslighting here is stupid. I know some people are trolling on this thread but the underlying theme of the thread is true, the truth is Vlad is more similar to Kendry Morrales RIGHT NOW than Miguel Cabrera or even Prince Fielder.

 

If current trends continue 2021 will be more distant and it will be hard to justifying 20 million for Kendry Morales.

[wamco]

Can a players salary go down during arbitration??

[connorp]

Can a players salary go down during arbitration??

 

Nope

[Olerud363]

Nope

 

 

He won't go down but the important question is how much Vlad will get dinged for his 2023 in terms of limiting his raise. Soto is going to be paid 23 million and then like 30 million for his last 2 years. So 53 million.

 

Going into his last 2 years of arbitration, Vlad will have similar numbers to Soto in terms of home-runs, RBIs, all star appearances and counting stats, but be way behind in the semi advanced stuff (getting on base) and way behind in the advanced stuff.

 

So the question is where does his salary end up compared to his true value?

[Olerud363]

He won't go down but the important question is how much Vlad will get dinged for his 2023 in terms of limiting his raise. Soto is going to be paid 23 million and then like 30 million for his last 2 years. So 53 million.

 

Going into his last 2 years of arbitration, Vlad will have similar numbers to Soto in terms of home-runs, RBIs, all star appearances and counting stats, but be way behind in the semi advanced stuff (getting on base) and way behind in the advanced stuff.

 

So the question is where does his salary end up compared to his true value?

 

I remember Tango saying happen because people are answering different questions, or not answering... I have three questions. Are these questions really that outlandish?

 

Question 1: What will Vlad's 2024 and 2025 Salary be in comparison to his 2023 performance?

 

Question 2: What are the chances that Vlad's 2024 performance is similar to his 2023 performance?

 

Question 3: What are the chances that a cold hearted front office releases a player as loved as Vladimir Guerrero jr, if his salary is way above his performance level.