General 2020 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[jerb]

 

Scott Mitchell

@ScottyMitchTSN

 

#BlueJays are looking at Lourdes Gurriel Jr. as the first base option against lefties.

Makes sense because he crushes LHP and has the hands of an infielder.

[jerb]

 

Sportsnet PR

@SportsnetPR

 

⚾️�� @BlueJays Spring Training starts this Saturday!

 

@Sportsnet is your home for everything Blue Jays with all pre-season games available on the Sportsnet Radio Network or http://sportsnet.ca and 16 games televised on Sportsnet, SN ONE, and SN NOW.

 

➡️ https://sprtsnt.ca/2Hz90Z8

[Laika]

I recall Cavan indeed altered his approach towards the end of the season at the behest of the coaching staff, and he subsequently ended the season on a real heater. I recall it being said that Cavan was urged to be more aggressive swinging at pitches in the strike zone that he could reasonably hit hard, and it seemingly worked out swimmingly for him. A cursory glance at his splits shows a .426 BABIP for the month which he certainly won't be able to replicate, but the 160 WRC+ was a nice reward for Cavan and his altered more aggressive approach.

 

Season: 63.3% zone swing (42.3 zone%)

August 1 to season end: 63.2% zone swing (42.6 zone%)

September: 62.7% zone swing (42.2 zone%)

 

Narrative fails

 

It was probably just a September BABIP heater

 

Laika Lesson: never assume the narrative is true; look for data to refute it before buying in.

[Spanky99]

 

Sportsnet PR

@SportsnetPR

 

⚾️�� @BlueJays Spring Training starts this Saturday!

 

@Sportsnet is your home for everything Blue Jays with all pre-season games available on the Sportsnet Radio Network or http://sportsnet.ca and 16 games televised on Sportsnet, SN ONE, and SN NOW.

 

➡️ https://sprtsnt.ca/2Hz90Z8

 

Holy s***!!! 16 Games, that's a lot.

[Spanky99]

Season: 63.3% zone swing (42.3 zone%)

August 1 to season end: 63.2% zone swing (42.6 zone%)

September: 62.7% zone swing (42.2 zone%)

 

Narrative fails

 

It was probably just a September BABIP heater

 

Laika Lesson: never assume the narrative is true; look for data to refute it before buying in.

 

lol... get over yourself!

[Laika]

lol... get over yourself!

 

Laika Lesson: block Spanky99

[Deadpool]

lol... get over yourself!

 

Laika Lesson: block Spanky99

 

I disagree with both of these posts.

[max silver]

Season: 63.3% zone swing (42.3 zone%)

August 1 to season end: 63.2% zone swing (42.6 zone%)

September: 62.7% zone swing (42.2 zone%)

 

Narrative fails

 

It was probably just a September BABIP heater

 

Laika Lesson: never assume the narrative is true; look for data to refute it before buying in.

 

How dare you suggest that glorious Blue Jays provider Sportsnet would push a false narrative upon us! Sacrilege I say!

 

This is pulled from the Athletic: https://theathletic.com/1482337/2019/12/25/1-on-1-cavan-biggio-on-his-holiday-traditions-musicals-finding-a-positional-home-blue-jays-chances-in-2020/

 

Those were the highs, but there were a few lows too. At the plate, Biggio displayed remarkable patience and discipline that led to a team-leading .364 OBP, but he also went through streaky periods offensively and his batting average (.202) fell dangerously close to the Mendoza Line in July.

 

A more aggressive plate approach starting in mid-August helped him finish strong, as he posted a .987 OPS over his final 22 games. Heading into 2020, he hopes to build off that mentality to achieve greater consistency at the plate.

 

“When you really commit to it and commit to that aggressive mindset, it really helped me slow the game down more and not being able to miss my best pitch that I’m going to see in that specific at-bat,” Biggio explained. “That whole month of September, I committed to that game plan and that mindset and saw a lot of success from it. And I’m going to build off that going into next year.”

 

Cavan himself believes there was an alteration of approach so there may actually be something to this. It's certainly interesting the monthly discipline numbers don't show anything, perhaps he was more apt to swing at meatballs early in the count than was previously the case, that is one scenario that would help explain the increased success to end the season. Looking at Fangraphs shows that Cavan had a different batted ball distribution for the month of September, as there were more flyballs than previous months, less soft contact overall, and a more even distribution with more balls to center field and less of a pull centric approach, so it's entirely possible a new approach was indeed being instituted.

[Laika]

How dare you suggest that glorious Blue Jays provider Sportsnet would push a false narrative upon us! Sacrilege I say!

 

This is pulled from the Athletic: https://theathletic.com/1482337/2019/12/25/1-on-1-cavan-biggio-on-his-holiday-traditions-musicals-finding-a-positional-home-blue-jays-chances-in-2020/

 

Those were the highs, but there were a few lows too. At the plate, Biggio displayed remarkable patience and discipline that led to a team-leading .364 OBP, but he also went through streaky periods offensively and his batting average (.202) fell dangerously close to the Mendoza Line in July.

 

A more aggressive plate approach starting in mid-August helped him finish strong, as he posted a .987 OPS over his final 22 games. Heading into 2020, he hopes to build off that mentality to achieve greater consistency at the plate.

 

“When you really commit to it and commit to that aggressive mindset, it really helped me slow the game down more and not being able to miss my best pitch that I’m going to see in that specific at-bat,” Biggio explained. “That whole month of September, I committed to that game plan and that mindset and saw a lot of success from it. And I’m going to build off that going into next year.”

 

Cavan himself believes there was an alteration of approach so there may actually be something to this. It's certainly interesting the monthly discipline numbers don't show anything, perhaps he was more apt to swing at meatballs early in the count than was previously the case, that is one scenario that would help explain the increased success to end the season. Looking at Fangraphs shows that Cavan had a different batted ball distribution for the month of September, as there were more flyballs than previous months, less soft contact overall, and a more even distribution with more balls to center field and less of a pull centric approach, so it's entirely possible a new approach was indeed being instituted.

 

Cavan Biggio is my favourite Blue Jay and I get panic attacks when there is any talk about him changing his approach at all. This guy led the Blue Jays in line drive percentage AND in flyball percentage in 2019, with 27.6% and 47% marks.

 

Here is a list of 2019 MLB players with at least 400 PA, a line drive rate of 25% or more, and a FB rate of 45% or more:

 

Cavan Biggio

Mike Trout

 

Roll in the elite BB rate, shockingly good foot speed, and defensive flexibility/value, and he's quite a f***ing player. Holy s*** Toronto - leave Cavan the f*** alone.

 

One of the main reasons Toronto could overperform in the next year or two is that Cavan Biggio has sneaky ~6 WAR upside. Think Matt Carpenter.

[max silver]

Cavan Biggio is my favourite Blue Jay and I get panic attacks when there is any talk about him changing his approach at all. This guy led the Blue Jays in line drive percentage AND in flyball percentage in 2019, with 27.6% and 47% marks.

 

Here is a list of 2019 MLB players with at least 400 PA, a line drive rate of 25% or more, and a FB rate of 45% or more:

 

Cavan Biggio

Mike Trout

 

Roll in the elite BB rate, shockingly good foot speed, and defensive flexibility/value, and he's quite a f***ing player. Holy s*** Toronto - leave Cavan the f*** alone.

 

One of the main reasons Toronto could overperform in the next year or two is that Cavan Biggio his sneaky ~6 WAR upside. Think Matt Carpenter.

 

The guy is/was so underrated it's shocking, I fully agree that his upside is tremendous. But I see no issue with him being coached to be more aggressive swinging at pitches he can crush, if that means he puts up more doubles and home runs and a few less walks overall then that makes him even better. With the reported new altered approach as you have illustrated the overall plate discipline profile wasn't changed for the worse, and the walk rate remained as high as was the case previously, so there were seemingly no negative consequences for Cavan. My only question for Cavan going forward is whether the high strikeout rate will eventually end up biting him in the ass, perhaps if the umpires stop giving him the rookie treatment 2 inch extra wide strike zone on both sides of the plate the strike out rate will plummet eventually.

[Laika]

The guy is/was so underrated it's shocking, I fully agree that his upside is tremendous. But I see no issue with him being coached to be more aggressive swinging at pitches he can crush, if that means he puts up more doubles and home runs and a few less walks overall then that makes him even better. With the reported new altered approach as you have illustrated the overall plate discipline profile wasn't changed for the worse, and the walk rate remained as high as was the case previously, so there were seemingly no negative consequences for Cavan. My only question for Cavan going forward is whether the high strikeout rate will eventually end up biting him in the ass, perhaps if the umpires stop giving him the rookie treatment 2 inch extra wide strike zone on both sides of the plate the strike out rate will plummet eventually.

 

To be clear, I doubt that he even changed his approach, despite his above comments. I don't see enough statistical evidence to support the notion that his approach changed at all.

 

Some part of it might be lip service to the coaches, or maybe he felt like his approach was different and more aggressive when really he was just riding a heater and getting results. The guy has hit a lot of dingers since 2018 so he knows how to be aggressive and drive pitches.

 

I don't see the strikeout rate changing much. Passivity is a double-edged sword that mostly helps him, and I don't think he has a great hit tool despite the elite discipline and plate approach.

[max silver]

To be clear, I doubt that he even changed his approach, despite his above comments. I don't see enough statistical evidence to support the notion that his approach changed at all.

 

Some part of it might be lip service to the coaches, or maybe he felt like his approach was different and more aggressive when really he was just riding a heater and getting results. The guy has hit a lot of dingers since 2018 so he knows how to be aggressive and drive pitches.

 

I don't see the strikeout rate changing much. Passivity is a double-edged sword that mostly helps him, and I don't think he has a great hit tool despite the elite discipline and plate approach.

 

I don't think we have enough available data to definitively make a decision on whether his approach is changed, but I'll lean towards taking Cavan's word for it. To do otherwise is to suggest the man is either a dumbass or a liar, and I see no reason to believe either is true.

 

Cavan is one player who I think can successfully become more aggressive on hittable strikes while still taking borderline pitches. There aren't many players with the type of pitch recognition/strike zone awareness that he possesses, and if he is actually attempting to do more damage on hittable pitches then he is certainly going to better off for it. Is there a way to look up at which areas of the strike zone a player is swinging? All I have come across is more vague data only showing overall swing percentages, but nothing breaking it down into zones over a month to month basis.

[Laika]

I don't think we have enough available data to definitively make a decision on whether his approach is changed, but I'll lean towards taking Cavan's word for it. To do otherwise is to suggest the man is either a dumbass or a liar, and I see no reason to believe either is true.

 

Cavan is one player who I think can successfully become more aggressive on hittable strikes while still taking borderline pitches. There aren't many players with the type of pitch recognition/strike zone awareness that he possesses, and if he is actually attempting to do more damage on hittable pitches then he is certainly going to better off for it. Is there a way to look up at which areas of the strike zone a player is swinging? All I have come across is more vague data only showing overall swing percentages, but nothing breaking it down into zones over a month to month basis.

 

Statcast has some swing/take data. I'm not sure how to interpret and use it though; nearly everybody, even Trout, seems to have negative attack regions where they are not optimally swinging vs. taking.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/visuals/swing-take?playerId=624415&playerSet=hitters&year=2019

 

Biggio seems to swing at nearly a league average rate on pitches in the heart and he is elite at not swinging on pitches way out of the zone. He seems to be too passive on borderline pitches? I guess? It's a fine line though. If he doesn't have the hit tool to do enough damage on borderline pitches then his plan might already be optimized for his physical talents.

[max silver]

Statcast has some swing/take data. I'm not sure how to interpret and use it though; nearly everybody, even Trout, seems to have negative attack regions where they are not optimally swinging vs. taking.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/visuals/swing-take?playerId=624415&playerSet=hitters&year=2019

 

Biggio seems to swing at nearly a league average rate on pitches in the heart and he is elite at not swinging on pitches way out of the zone. He seems to be too passive on borderline pitches? I guess? It's a fine line though. If he doesn't have the hit tool to do enough damage on borderline pitches then his plan might already be optimized for his physical talents.

 

That's an interesting graphic, if it were to break down on a monthly basis we would have exactly what we need to see whether or not there was an approach change. It certainly does suggest Cavan has been too passive with pitches in the strike zone, but the overall results of +24 take runs and -10 swing runs suggests the passive approach mostly works for him. It appears most of his success is attributable to taking pitches out of the strike zone, with the passiveness in pitches in the strike zone working against him. I look forward to what 2020 brings for Cavan, if he looks more like the September guy going forward than the preceding months then he is a much better player than originally expected.

[Olerud363]

Cavan Biggio is my favourite Blue Jay and I get panic attacks when there is any talk about him changing his approach at all. This guy led the Blue Jays in line drive percentage AND in flyball percentage in 2019, with 27.6% and 47% marks.

 

Here is a list of 2019 MLB players with at least 400 PA, a line drive rate of 25% or more, and a FB rate of 45% or more:

 

Cavan Biggio

Mike Trout

 

Roll in the elite BB rate, shockingly good foot speed, and defensive flexibility/value, and he's quite a f***ing player. Holy s*** Toronto - leave Cavan the f*** alone.

 

One of the main reasons Toronto could overperform in the next year or two is that Cavan Biggio has sneaky ~6 WAR upside. Think Matt Carpenter.

 

Kind of like Jose Cruz JR. In 1998/1999 Jose Cruz JR had a couple of seasons sort of like Cavan did last year... but instead of getting called up he got called down

 

He got replaced by ... some one terrible... can't remember who but (looks it up Brian McRae, Jacob Brumfield, and a young and not ready Vernon Wells)

 

This cost the Jays 2 wins or so probably.

 

Anyway after getting called down for being Cavan Biggio sort of like, Jose changed his approach... it didn't really make much of a difference in his WAR... he managed to hit with more power with half the walk rate.

 

Here are some basic guidelines as to whether a change is good or not...

 

1. Anything that increases Cavan's on base percentage is good. If a new approach changes his walk rate to 0, but his average (and thus on base percentage) to .380 that is good.

2. Anything that decreases his on base percentage is bad, unless it increases his slugging by roughly twice as much. If a change makes him go from a .230 .360 .400 guy to .240 .340 .440 it probably isn't worth it.

3. Sitting him for Brandon Drury would be bad (Both Jose Cruz and John Olerud were sat for Jacob Brumfield, a good comparable would be sitting Cavan for Drury)

[Spanky99]

Kind of like Jose Cruz JR. In 1998/1999 Jose Cruz JR had a couple of seasons sort of like Cavan did last year... but instead of getting called up he got called down

 

He got replaced by ... some one terrible... can't remember who but (looks it up Brian McRae, Jacob Brumfield, and a young and not ready Vernon Wells)

 

This cost the Jays 2 wins or so probably.

 

Anyway after getting called down for being Cavan Biggio sort of like, Jose changed his approach... it didn't really make much of a difference in his WAR... he managed to hit with more power with half the walk rate.

 

Here are some basic guidelines as to whether a change is good or not...

 

1. Anything that increases Cavan's on base percentage is good. If a new approach changes his walk rate to 0, but his average (and thus on base percentage) to .380 that is good.

2. Anything that decreases his on base percentage is bad, unless it increases his slugging by roughly twice as much. If a change makes him go from a .230 .360 .400 guy to .240 .340 .440 it probably isn't worth it.

3. Sitting him for Brandon Drury would be bad (Both Jose Cruz and John Olerud were sat for Jacob Brumfield, a good comparable would be sitting Cavan for Drury)

 

lol... classic Olerud.

[Spanky99]

Extra Jays content...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/we-might-be-underestimating-the-blue-jays/

[gruber92]

What makes someone an ideal 7th hitter? How does the skill set differ from an ideal 6th hitter?

 

Hitting sixth still requires a hitter with decent contact skills, as there are many scenarios that requires contact at a higher rate opposed to the 7th spot. Too many non productive outs in Grichuks bat but you don't want to bury his power either.

[gruber92]

Lol imagine complaining that a guy is hitting 6th instead of 7th. True definition of a joyless old bastard.

 

Suck dick.

[Brownie19]

I recall Cavan indeed altered his approach towards the end of the season at the behest of the coaching staff, and he subsequently ended the season on a real heater. I recall it being said that Cavan was urged to be more aggressive swinging at pitches in the strike zone that he could reasonably hit hard, and it seemingly worked out swimmingly for him. A cursory glance at his splits shows a .426 BABIP for the month which he certainly won't be able to replicate, but the 160 WRC+ was a nice reward for Cavan and his altered more aggressive approach.

 

From Buck and Tabby I bet. Enough said. Hit mute.

[jerb]

 

Shi Davidi

@ShiDavidi

 

Right now Charlie Montoyo says he plans to bat Lourdes Gurriel Jr., third and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., fourth in #BlueJays lineup. Montoyo says Guerrero told him he likes seeing how teams pitch Gurriel, thinks they attack him similarly.

[max silver]

 

Shi Davidi

@ShiDavidi

 

Right now Charlie Montoyo says he plans to bat Lourdes Gurriel Jr., third and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., fourth in #BlueJays lineup. Montoyo says Guerrero told him he likes seeing how teams pitch Gurriel, thinks they attack him similarly.

 

Who bats 5th I wonder? Hopefully it's someone that can at least provide a small modicum of protection for Vladdy Jr., last season he was already seeing one of the lowest percentages of pitches in the strike zone, this will likely continue to an even greater degree this season.

[max silver]

From Buck and Tabby I bet. Enough said. Hit mute.

 

Did you bother reading the fact that it was quoted straight from Cavan himself? Perhaps reading comprehension isn't your strong suit.

[Brownie19]

Did you bother reading the fact that it was quoted straight from Cavan himself? Perhaps reading comprehension isn't your strong suit.

 

actually think I missed a whole page there! That just reeked of Buck's ********.

[Brownie19]

Who bats 5th I wonder? Hopefully it's someone that can at least provide a small modicum of protection for Vladdy Jr., last season he was already seeing one of the lowest percentages of pitches in the strike zone, this will likely continue to an even greater degree this season.

 

Probably Shaw v. RHP and Grichuk v. LHP

 

Lineup protection is overrated.

[max silver]

actually think I missed a whole page there! That just reeked of Buck's ********.

 

You may need to fine tune your Buck ******** detector then, the discussion included quotes from Cavan directly taken from a Kaitlyn McGrath written Athletic article. Absolutely zero Buck Martinez affiliation guaranteed from that particular discussion actually.

[Brownie19]

You may need to fine tune your Buck ******** detector then, the discussion included quotes from Cavan directly taken from a Kaitlyn McGrath written Athletic article. Absolutely zero Buck Martinez affiliation guaranteed from that particular discussion actually.

 

Holy f*** man - did you glaze where I told you I missed an entire page of discussion and didn't see your follow up post where you added the Cavan quotes?

 

My Buck ******** meter isn't broken. That's certainly something Buck would make up even though there's little to no evidence he made any changes and simply was on a BABIP heater. Tabby would follow up by telling us how Cavan looks stronger and how he works hard to battle through the riggers of the MLB season. Then they'd probably say something about how Cavan has an advantage because his dad played.

[max silver]

Probably Shaw v. RHP and Grichuk v. LHP

 

Lineup protection is overrated.

 

Hopefully common sense eventually takes over in lineup construction for the Jays. They have the perfect lead-off man in Cavan Biggio. He has the perfect combination of best OBP in the team and just so happens to also be the team's best base-runner by a large margin. Batting second and third would ideally be the team's two best hitters in Vladdy Jr. and Bo Bichette. In my eyes it's up in the air which of these two will eventually be the better hitter, but for this season at least these two will each should be getting close to the maximum amount of at bats possible, and ensuring they come up to bat in the first inning. I think Gurriel would make a great clean-up hitter, the guy is an extra base machine.

[Brownie19]

Hopefully common sense eventually takes over in lineup construction for the Jays. They have the perfect lead-off man in Cavan Biggio. He has the perfect combination of best OBP in the team and just so happens to also be the team's best base-runner by a large margin. Batting second and third would ideally be the team's two best hitters in Vladdy Jr. and Bo Bichette. In my eyes it's up in the air which of these two will eventually be the better hitter, but for this season at least these two will each should be getting close to the maximum amount of at bats possible, and ensuring they come up to bat in the first inning. I think Gurriel would make a great clean-up hitter, the guy is an extra base machine.

 

I'm too lazy to find the study, but it's been proven that putting your best hitter 2nd, with your second and third best hitters in the leadoff and cleanup position (typically with the higher OBP guy leadoff and higher SLG% cleanup) is the optimal way to construct your lineup. Fourth and fifth best hitter hit 3rd and 5th.

 

Based on this, what Charlie is proposing isn't too far off.

[max silver]

I'm too lazy to find the study, but it's been proven that putting your best hitter 2nd, with your second and third best hitters in the leadoff and cleanup position (typically with the higher OBP guy leadoff and higher SLG% cleanup) is the optimal way to construct your lineup. Fourth and fifth best hitter hit 3rd and 5th.

 

Based on this, what Charlie is proposing isn't too far off.

 

In your view what does the study propose for a line-up, vs. what Charlie has proposed? I haven't seen the full line-up quote from Charlie yet, but didn't see the sense in batting Vladdy so far down in the line-up at the clean-up spot. I would argue he's in the top two going forward.