Blue Jays, Randal Grichuk agree on five-year, $52-million extension

[BlueRocky]

Yeah this actually seems a bit excessive to me. I think Grichuk has potential to be better than he has shown so far, but I wouldn't have dropped $50m on him before he comes close to reaching it. He has a 5% bb rate and a career OBP below .300 and even last year didn't show any signs of deviating from that skill set. Not sure this is a smart move, but I said the same thing about the Smoakster, so prove me wrong again Atkins.

 

Rather than staring at the 52M number I look at it as:

 

2019: Age 27 for $7,000,000

2020: Age 28 for $12,000000

2021: Age 29 for $9,333,333

2022: Age 30 for $9,333,333

2023: Age 31 for $9,333,333

 

It’s pretty reasonable, with some upside to be a bargain. He really just has to be worth 1-1.5 fWAR to justify the contract. Entering his prime, that shouldn’t be too big of an issue granted he stays somewhat healthy. And if by 2022 he really doesn’t fit our roster, it’s not impossible to move 9.3M/2 year deal somewhere else.

 

We have almost no contracts committed after 2020, this by no means cripple our payroll whatsoever. And maybe I’m optimistic but I see Grichuk as a 3+ WAR if he puts it all together, which would make this a steal.

[tbad]

You keep talking about Grichuk's WAR per season w/o mentioning the fact that they were not full seasons... that is a pretty big gap... he's actually averaging closer to 3 WAR per 600 PA

[tbad]

Also Grichuk is my favorite Blue Jay so I'm basically overjoyed by this signing...!

[Laika]

Agreed. Seems like the type of extension that is given to players who are viewed as more safe commodities. Grichuk's outcomes seem extremely volatile. Seems like the bottom is more likely to fall out then he is to realize his potential by fixing his offensive flaws.

 

On the other hand, they have tons of projected payroll space and extending decent players like Grichuk, Stroman is a lot better than Rogers just keeping the money.

 

The cost is fine here I guess I just don't like the player as much as some others do.

[Spanky99]

I am not in love with it. Serious flaws in the offensive profile.

 

Meh.

 

Yeah this actually seems a bit excessive to me. I think Grichuk has potential to be better than he has shown so far, but I wouldn't have dropped $50m on him before he comes close to reaching it. He has a 5% bb rate and a career OBP below .300 and even last year didn't show any signs of deviating from that skill set. Not sure this is a smart move, but I said the same thing about the Smoakster, so prove me wrong again Atkins.

 

Dumn.

[Spanky99]

Don't see Sanchez sticking around as long as Boras is in the picture.

 

Boras, is taking extensions! Or it's his players.

[Spanky99]

Can't say I'm a fan of this deal; it seems like an overpay especially considering what the FA market has to offer for players of similar value. Not sure why they just didn't wait out his arb years. He's a decent player, but no better than Pillar (Grichuk highest bwar is 3.2, while Pilar has posted 4.9, 3.5 and 3.0 bwar), strikes out too much and can't take a walk.

 

It's not a crippling deal but I hope Shatkins does more with the financial flexibility that they will have in the coming years. Deals like this don't inspire a lot of confidence, though.

 

lulz

[Hipfan]

lulz

 

What’s so funny? I’m no fan of Pillar but how is Grichuk so much better that everyone is praising this deal and also happy Pillar is gone? Enlighten me, because it can’t just be the hard hit rate.

[Spanky99]

What’s so funny? I’m no fan of Pillar but how is Grichuk so much better that everyone is praising this deal and also happy Pillar is gone? Enlighten me, because it can’t just be the hard hit rate.

 

Age and control.

[Key22]

It makes sense - you can't have all stars at every position - the team has little in the way of outfield prospects - in the supposed contending years he's cost controlled at 9 million and IF he can truly play respectable CF defense to above average RF defense with potential 30 homer pop with speed with a 3 war (and has some upside) then you have a solid player not costing a ton of money keeping the payroll flexibility in tact.

 

If the Jays develop the boatload of middle infielders such that they do not need to sign an infielder and they can develop 2 top of the rotation starters - then when the time comes to put themselves over the top they just need to sign 1-2 bats and 1-2 pitchers which is pretty doable in 2021 when they have under $30 million in payroll commitments but $170million to spend.

[Hipfan]

Age and control.

 

But why sign him for 5 years? The FA market does not value players like Grichuk. He is still controllable for 2 years after this one so why rush to sign him now? Doesn’t seem like a smart gamble. That’s my issue with the deal. It could easily become an overpay and there was no need to sign him now. Could have waited until next year at least to see if there was some improvement in his game, particularly his obp. The Jays are saying he is a building block/cornerstone type player with this deal but I don’t believe he has shown he is worth that kind of commitment yet.

[BlueRocky]

Grichuk hits for power, compared to Pillar it’s not even close.

 

Grichuk

2016 ISO .240 HR 24

2017 ISO .235 HR 22

2018 ISO .257 HR 25

 

Pillar

2016 ISO .109 HR 7

2017 ISO .148 HR 16

2018 ISO .174 HR 15

 

Grichuk if healthy has 30 HR potential. Pillar not even close, even in his best season.

Grichuk is 27, Pillar is 30.

 

Every deal has risk, but unless you’re concerned about him staying healthy there’s limited evidence to suggest he won’t even be a 1 WAR player. It’s always possible a player turns into a pumpkin after signing their deal, sure. But glancing over our farm system it’s clear we don’t have many elite outfield prospects on it’s way up, they’re mostly middle infield. Having some security at a position we’re thin at, from a player just entering his prime, is not a bad thing—especially on a reasonable contract.

 

We had 2 more years of control so this is essentially a 3 year extension, not 5.

 

At some point the front office needed to make a decision on who stays and who goes, this is just the second domino following the Morales trade.

[EastCoaster]

You can't use free market $/WAR valuations because we're buying out his remaining arbitration years. This deal is similar in philosophy to the Aaron Hicks and Kevin Kiermaier deals, although those players were much more valuable at the time of signing.

 

Aaron Hicks has been injury prone he's been out more often than not he's yet to resume baseball activities due to back issues which has been problematic in his career. Might be see him on the field by month end if all goes well then it's just a waiting game till his next stint on the DL cause it's sure to happen.

[Laika]

It makes sense - you can't have all stars at every position - the team has little in the way of outfield prospects - in the supposed contending years he's cost controlled at 9 million and IF he can truly play respectable CF defense to above average RF defense with potential 30 homer pop with speed with a 3 war (and has some upside) then you have a solid player not costing a ton of money keeping the payroll flexibility in tact.

 

If the Jays develop the boatload of middle infielders such that they do not need to sign an infielder and they can develop 2 top of the rotation starters - then when the time comes to put themselves over the top they just need to sign 1-2 bats and 1-2 pitchers which is pretty doable in 2021 when they have under $30 million in payroll commitments but $170million to spend.

 

Yes, this is basically the rationale I think. It's not likely that Toronto will internally develop 3 MLB starting outfielders for the current Vlad-Bo timeline, so they might as well extend the one currently on the roster given the facts that he is young and willing to sign.

[connorp]

Surprised there’s lots of love for the deal on here when it’s a sub .300 obp guy.

[Slade]

Surprised there’s lots of love for the deal on here when it’s a sub .300 obp guy.

 

I don't mind the deal but I don't think Grichuk is anything special. To me he didn't improve enough last year to warrant a 5 year extension.

[Dr. Dinger]

It's interesting how the Jays saved $2M on Morales, and people think "big deal, what are they going to do with $2M this year?" The Jays saved $5M on Pillar, and people think the same thing.

 

Well, the Jays bumped Grichuk's salary by $2M this year, and give him a $5M signing bonus, and in exchange, by front-loading his deal, they are getting his 3 free agent years for $9.3M per season. Just a cool example of using financial flexibility and front-loading a contract in a year where you have a bit of surplus salary in order to get a core player cheaper down the line in competitive years, where payroll may be stretched thin.

[Ray]

It's interesting how the Jays saved $2M on Morales, and people think "big deal, what are they going to do with $2M this year?" The Jays saved $5M on Pillar, and people think the same thing.

 

Well, the Jays bumped Grichuk's salary by $2M this year, and give him a $5M signing bonus, and in exchange, by front-loading his deal, they are getting his 3 free agent years for $9.3M per season. Just a cool example of using financial flexibility and front-loading a contract in a year where you have a bit of surplus salary in order to get a core player cheaper down the line in competitive years, where payroll may be stretched thin.

 

That's what made the deal a little more palatable for me. We're paying him more this season and the next, but we're essentially getting 3 of his free agent seasons for $28M. We just took Pillar's salary and what we saved on Morales and are paying Grichuk some of that for this season and the next.

[Dr. Dinger]

That's what made the deal a little more palatable for me. We're paying him more this season and the next, but we're essentially getting 3 of his free agent seasons for $28M. We just took Pillar's salary and what we saved on Morales and are paying Grichuk some of that for this season and the next.

 

And basically the Jays need about 6.5 WAR over these 5 seasons to break even on the deal, anything more is surplus value. For a guy who has posted 3 seasons of 2+ WAR already, I think that's very doable. They're also only paying him like 1ish WAR player on those final 3 years. I think there's room in this contract for surplus value, but I also think that if you want to quibble about paying a bit too much, you certainly can't quibble about when the Jays are paying it. There just aren't a lot of other options in 2019 to spend the extra pocket money on, so rather than asking for additional payroll later, you front-load now.

[glory]

The good part of the deal is the front loading. I just don't agree with the "if he's a 1 WAR player in years 3, 4, and 5 then he's playing up to the contract". 1 War outfielders have zero value in today's market. This contract is basically the Jays trying to buy low on Grichuk hoping he improves from here on out, kind of like Smoak. If it works then they'll look great, but if it doesn't, then yeah, a 1-2 war outfielder making $9m isn't bad, but not good either.

 

I want the Jays to start valuing Obp. Thankfully many of the prospects coming up have good on base skills (Vlad, Bo, Jansen, Tellez, Biggio) because I'm not sure how many more hackers who don't walk I can take on one roster.

[Laika]

The good part of the deal is the front loading. I just don't agree with the "if he's a 1 WAR player in years 3, 4, and 5 then he's playing up to the contract". 1 War outfielders have zero value in today's market. This contract is basically the Jays trying to buy low on Grichuk hoping he improves from here on out, kind of like Smoak. If it works then they'll look great, but if it doesn't, then yeah, a 1-2 war outfielder making $9m isn't bad, but not good either.

 

I want the Jays to start valuing Obp. Thankfully many of the prospects coming up have good on base skills (Vlad, Bo, Jansen, Tellez, Biggio) because I'm not sure how many more hackers who don't walk I can take on one roster.

 

Yeah, a 1 WAR player does not get 3/$28M in free agency, unless it's the Rockies inexplicably outbidding themselves for the next Gerardo Parra or whatever.

 

It's silly to think that Toronto doesn't value OBP, or that they should place some sort of emphasis on OBP above and beyond general offensive production or overall value.

[glory]

Yeah, a 1 WAR player does not get 3/$28M in free agency, unless it's the Rockies inexplicably outbidding themselves for the next Gerardo Parra or whatever.

 

It's silly to think that Toronto doesn't value OBP, or that they should place some sort of emphasis on OBP above and beyond general offensive production or overall value.

 

Look at the players they have acquired. How many of them will have OBP's above .300? One or two players like that is fine, especially if they bring value from other areas, but that's basically the entire lineup except Smoak.

[Dr. Dinger]

Look at the players they have acquired. How many of them will have OBP's above .300? One or two players like that is fine, especially if they bring value from other areas, but that's basically the entire lineup except Smoak.

 

They should, and do, value holistic offensive stats like wOBA or wRC+, which factor in both the ability to get on base and hit for power, among other skills. There's no reason why they should focus specifically on OBP. If a guy slashes .366/.526 or .393/.496 but his wRC+ is 135 either way, it makes no difference whether he's more on-base oriented or power oriented. Given the same number of PAs he will create the same number of runs. It could very well be that this front office finds that OBP>SLG guys are paid more per RC than SLG>OBP guys, so they lean towards the latter strictly as a means of creating value.

[glory]

They should, and do, value holistic offensive stats like wOBA or wRC+, which factor in both the ability to get on base and hit for power, among other skills. There's no reason why they should focus specifically on OBP. If a guy slashes .366/.526 or .393/.496 but his wRC+ is 135 either way, it makes no difference whether he's more on-base oriented or power oriented. Given the same number of PAs he will create the same number of runs. It could very well be that this front office finds that OBP>SLG guys are paid more per RC than SLG>OBP guys, so they lean towards the latter strictly as a means of creating value.

 

Ok, I'll rephrase. Focus on BB%. Whether that leads to a high OBP or not is fine, but know how to draw walks, work the count, etc. Right now it seems entirely focused on exit velocity, barrels, etc, which is fine since it has value and can potentially lead to greater performance, but there's a reason why Smoak took a step forward with some adjustments and why expecting someone like Teoscar to do the same is not as realistic.

[Dr. Dinger]

Yeah, a 1 WAR player does not get 3/$28M in free agency

 

This makes no difference to me TBH. All that matters is whether the contract -- taken on the whole -- produces surplus value. If Grichuk goes off for 6 WAR in 2020 but is a -1 WAR player in 2023, I won't give the slightest s*** about whether he's getting paid what he's 'worth' in that specific season. If he accrues 7 WAR in the first 3 seasons and then 0 in the next two, it's still a win. Clearly this front office thinks he has the upside to be at least a 3 WAR player for 2-3 seasons, given their propensity for mining value contracts.

[Dr. Dinger]

Ok, I'll rephrase. Focus on BB%. Whether that leads to a high OBP or not is fine, but know how to draw walks, work the count, etc. Right now it seems entirely focused on exit velocity, barrels, etc, which is fine since it has value and can potentially lead to greater performance, but there's a reason why Smoak took a step forward with some adjustments and why expecting someone like Teoscar to do the same is not as realistic.

 

Your rephrasing still misses the point. There are different ways to create runs and focusing on just one component misses the forest for the trees. My oak tree may be skinny while my pine tree may be thick, while yours are equally girthy. However, if we both produce the same quantity of O2, then it makes no difference.

 

If you want to say "THIS TEAM NEEDS TO CREATE MORE RUNS!"... or more O2, then I agree with you. However focusing on OBP or BB rate specifically is to incorrectly frame the problem.

[Jimcanuck]

I don't think Grichuk is a downgrade on Pillar in CF. And he has a better bat. So Grichuk in CF with the positional adjustment is 2 WAR at least?

[Dr. Dinger]

So Grichuk in CF with the positional adjustment is 2 WAR at least?

 

FWIW, Grichuk's career DRS in CF is +12 over 1500 innings (about 1 full season) vs +9 in LF over 850 innings and +3 in RF over 1500 innings. There might even be some reason to think that CF is his best defensive position.

 

Pillar's DRS for the last few seasons:

 

2015 +15

2016 +21

2017 +15

2018 -2

[Abomination]

I don't think Grichuk is a downgrade on Pillar in CF. And he has a better bat. So Grichuk in CF with the positional adjustment is 2 WAR at least?

 

He's been > 2 war in 3 of his 4 full seasons, and was really only a CF in one of them. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him average 2.5 WAR a year for the contract, although that's certainly not a given.

[P2F]

Dinger is on a roll ITT.