MLB 2019 Draft

[TheHurl]

Post nazi!

[Spanky__99]

Post nazi!

 

lol... it was literally 8 posts above.

[Pendleton]

Recent updated mock drafts

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-draft-beginning-to-take-shape

 

Jonathan Mayo has us picking “The Big Unit” Alek Manoah

 

https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=16352

 

PerfectGame.org also has us with Manoah

 

http://baseballprospectjournal.com/2019-mlb-draft-mock-draft-3/

 

These guys have us taking Jackson Rutledge

 

Interesting they all have us leaning towards pitching

 

Those have us leaning towards pitching, and BA says they hear the Jays connected more to hitters.

[metafour]

That means that they aren't leaning on anything.

 

Who had us "leaning" on Groshans last year? Exactly.

[Slade]

That means that they aren't leaning on anything.

 

Who had us "leaning" on Groshans last year? Exactly.

 

Klaw did.

[Boxcar]

That means that they aren't leaning on anything.

 

Who had us "leaning" on Groshans last year? Exactly.

 

They should do some more mock drafts linking us to a bunch of "surprise" picks so they can later say that they called it

[jmomcc]

Are there any non mock draft focused people out writing on the MLB draft? Just guys predicting how good players will be and going in depth on that.. and having some out there opinions.. whether from a statistical or film pov? This exists for the NFL in spades but not seeing much out there for the mlb draft.

[Slade]

Fangraphs mock 2.0 is up.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-2-0/

 

11. Blue Jays – Jackson Rutledge, RHP, San Jacinto JC (TX)

The Jays have been tied to Thompson (who has an elbow that worries some teams despite never having surgery) and Rutledge (who had hip labrum surgery in 2018), along with some of the college bats above if they slide, and prep CF Corbin Carroll, who could be the prep bat who slides just enough to make it to the Diamondbacks’ pick, where they can assert their draft-leading pool.

[BlueRocky]

From Fangraphs 2.0

 

8. Rangers – Brett Baty, 3B, Lake Travis HS (TX)

For over a month, Texas has been rumored to be looking underslot here and we’ve heard three names, presented here in the order of their likelihood to be the choice: Baty, Texas JC RHP Jackson Rutledge, and Tulane 3B Kody Hoese. Baty is from a high school in Austin and is a trendy underslot target for clubs in the top 10 as he checks all the boxes of a Nolan Gorman or Austin Riley, but he’s 19.6 on draft day. We have the Rangers taking Baty’s prep teammate Jimmy Lewis with their next pick, following the blueprint of the Blue Jays taking Texas high school teammates last year (Jordan Groshans and Adam Kloffenstein from Magnolia HS). The Rangers may get a hometown discount if they did this, along with having extra money to spend at later picks.

 

Interesting, this is the highest we’ve seen Baty mocked.

[TheOutsider]

I'd be a bit worried about the combination of history of elbow stuff and relatively high number of walks with Thompson, but at least his delivery looks pretty good to me.

[Spanky__99]

From Fangraphs 2.0

 

 

 

Interesting, this is the highest we’ve seen Baty mocked.

 

These mocks don't matter, it's just a dressup, really. Who cares!

 

Draft will be fun, though.

[Spanky__99]

They should do some more mock drafts linking us to a bunch of "surprise" picks so they can later say that they called it

 

You're such a killjoy, lol. Prick!

[L54]

These mocks don't matter, it's just a dressup, really. Who cares!

 

Draft will be fun, though.

 

You're such a killjoy, lol. Prick!

 

???

[Boxcar]

You're such a killjoy, lol. Prick!

 

They're not just for fun for the morons who are writing them.

[Spanky__99]

???

 

My point D... they give you at least a consensus... every team has their guy, plan b, etc...

 

They're not just for fun for the morons who are writing them.

 

It's substance, no? Easier to follow, really.

[Boxcar]

My point D... they give you at least a consensus... every team has their guy, plan b, etc...

 

 

 

It's substance, no? Easier to follow, really.

 

Is it substance? If it is, it's by the slimmest of margins.

[TheHurl]

BA 500 dropped today. Will post later or will wait for someone else to post

[jays4life19]

BA 500 dropped today. Will post later or will wait for someone else to post

 

I'm pretty sure that would take 4 pages to post.

 

_____

 

If anyone wants a scouting report just let me know and i can post

[jays4life19]

I'll post a couple reports of guys who are linked to the jays.

 

Brett Baty

Lake Travis HS, Austin 3B

Notes:

Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 218 | B-T: L-R

Commit/Drafted: Texas

Scouting Report: One of the best pure hitters in the draft class, Baty brings 70-grade raw power to the table with impressive strength and plus bat speed. He also has an advanced approach at the plate and a feel for putting the barrel on the ball. In every batting practice Baty takes, his power stands out. The ease with which he’s able to send the ball out of the park, both to the pull side and to the opposite field, rivals nearly any player in the 2019 draft. A big, 6-foot-3, 218-pound third baseman, Baty has improved his body composition over the past few years, turning some of his baby fat into muscle, which has helped improve his game both offensively and defensively. Originally, most scouts believed that Baty was destined for a transition to first base in pro ball because of his below-average footwork, suspect hands and a plus throwing arm that had strength but was erratic with a slow exchange. He’s improved across the board defensively this spring, now giving himself a chance to stick at third base, but winding up at first base may still be the most likely outcome. He’s hit anything and everything thrown at him in a competitive area of Texas, but the biggest knock on Baty’s profile is his age. He’ll be just six months away from his 20th birthday at the time of the draft, and he is one of the oldest high school players in the class. Many teams operate with draft models that significantly penalize hitters for that, although at some point it’s hard to ignore Baty’s potential as a middle-of-the-order hitter—no matter his age or position. Baty is committed to Texas, but he is unlikely to make it to campus and could be drafted early on Day 1 of the draft.

 

___

 

14

Last: 15

Jackson Rutledge

San Jacinto (Texas) JC RHP

Notes:

Ht: 6-8 | Wt: 260 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted

Scouting Report: Rutledge entered the season as the second-ranked junior college prospect in the class after fellow righthander Carter Stewart because of his high school pedigree, tantalizing raw stuff and imposing, 6-foot-8, 260-pound frame. Out of high school, Rutledge had a solid, 90-93 mph fastball with impressive sinking life, but he needed to improve both his secondaires and overall control. Rutledge threw just 15.2 innings as a freshman at Arkansas before going down with a season-ending hip injury. Following the season, he decided to transfer to San Jacinto (Texas) JC and expected to enter the 2020 draft as a Kentucky commit. Those plans changed, however, when Rutledge came out this spring showing some of the best pure stuff of any pitcher in the country with improved control. Rutledge has regularly been into the upper 90s with his fastball, and he has held that velocity into the sixth and seventh innings of his starts throughout the season. In addition, he’s shown a pair of plus breaking balls in both a slider and curveball. Previously, Rutledge threw a hybrid breaking ball that was more slurve-like, but after interning with Pro Pitching Performance last summer (while he rehabbed from injury) Rutledge worked to differentiate those pitches with Rapsodo feedback and now has two distinct, swing-and-miss breaking pitches. He also has a changeup that could be a fourth above-average offering. While he isn’t facing the strongest competition, Rutledge struck out 123 batters through his first 12 starts and 77.2 innings (14.25 strikeouts per nine) this spring, with just 28 walks (3.25 walks per nine). Since his time in high school, Rutledge has significantly shortened his arm action. It’s now a incredibly tight and compact delivery, to the point that some scouts wonder how he’s able to generate and maintain his velocity. The upgrade in arm action has allowed him to improve his control, but scouts think he’ll need to continue refining his command when he faces stiffer competition at the pro level. Regardless, his pure stuff and the deception he creates with his delivery should give him plenty of room for error as he climbs the ladder. Rutledge has the upside of a No. 2 starter, but he carries some reliever risk due to his size and history of control problems.

 

___

 

 

Last: 21

Alek Manoah

West Virginia RHP

Notes:

Ht: 6-6 | Wt: 260 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted

Scouting Report: Manoah split time between starting and relieving during his first two seasons with West Virginia, but after a stellar campaign as a starter in the Cape Cod League last summer—when he posted a 2.70 ERA with 48 strikeouts in 33.1 innings—Manoah has made a successful transition to a full-time starting role this spring. Through his first 12 starts this season, Manoah has been one of the more dominant arms in the country, posting a 2.07 ERA with 108 strikeouts over his first 82.2 innings (11.76 strikeouts per nine innings) and the lowest walk rate (2.29 per nine) of his career. Manoah mostly works off of two pitches—a power fastball that sits in the mid- to upper 90s and a hard slider that projects as a second plus pitch. While Monoah has shown a changeup at times, he’s mostly been a two-pitch starter this season. He also entered the season with significant reliever risk because of his erratic control, large, 6-foot-6, 260-pound frame and questionable athleticism. However, he has started pitching exclusively out of the stretch and, as a result, has improved his strike-throwing ability enough to give him a real shot of sticking as a starter in pro ball. But while his walk rate is down significantly this season, Manoah still needs to refine his command—as evidenced by 17 hit batters over his first 12 starts—and teams will likely be concerned with how well he is able to manage his body moving forward. This list of major league starting pitchers who have had success at or near Manoah’s size is a short one, with CC Sabathia, Aaron Harang, Justin Masterson and Michael Pineda some of the names who qualify. Still, Manoah’s stuff compares nicely with most of the pitchers in the 2019 class, and he’s steadily improved his draft stock with each start. Manoah should be one of the first college pitchers drafted this June.

 

___

 

 

Last: 6

Corbin Carroll

Lakeside HS, Seattle OF

Notes:

Ht: 5-10 | Wt: 170 | B-T: L-L

Commit/Drafted: UCLA

Scouting Report: Carroll wowed scouts all summer by dominating at the plate in almost every high-profile event he attended. The 5-foot-10, 170-pound outfielder plays above his size in every facet of the game. He has a polished hit tool and a terrific feel for the strike zone with a patient approach in the batter’s box. Carroll has no problem spitting on pitches just outside the zone and taking a walk, and then he can wreck havoc with his plus speed and advanced feel for running the bases. While Carroll is short, he isn’t small, with a solid frame and improved strength to the point where he could project for at least average power. Carroll’s speed plays in the outfield as well, where he is one of the best defensive center fielders in the class. Scouting directors voted Carroll as best prep defender in the class during the preseason thanks to excellent jumps and efficient route running. Some teams question his arm strength, and it was previously fringe-average, though reports on his throwing this spring have continued to improve as he’s gotten stronger. There are very few holes to speak of in Carroll’s game, although his size and some of the comparisons he’s gotten to Phillies prospect Mickey Moniak, who has struggled since being the No. 1 overall pick in 2016, might give some teams pause. Still, Carroll has shown more impact ability than Moniak did at the same age. He is also praised for his excellent makeup, high baseball IQ and impressive work ethic. Carroll’s all-around package and polish could allow him to become the highest-drafted Washington high schooler this century, passing Reese McGuire (2013) and Travis Snider (2006), who were both selected with the 14th overall pick. Carroll is committed to UCLA.

[Ray]

I'm pretty sure that would take 4 pages to post.

 

_____

 

If anyone wants a scouting report just let me know and i can post

 

Jaxx Groshans?

[BlueRocky]

202

Last: 262

Jaxx Groshans

Kansas

C/OF

Notes:

Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 190 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted

Scouting Report:N/A

[BlueRocky]

Carroll wowed scouts all summer by dominating at the plate in almost every high-profile event he attended. The 5-foot-10, 170-pound outfielder plays above his size in every facet of the game.

 

has no problem spitting on pitches just outside the zone and taking a walk, and then he can wreck havoc with his plus speed and advanced feel for running the bases

 

one of the best defensive center fielders in the class.

 

some of the comparisons he’s gotten to Phillies prospect Mickey Moniak, who has struggled since being the No. 1 overall pick in 2016, might give some teams pause. Still, Carroll has shown more impact ability than Moniak did at the same age.

 

Baseball America has some serious praises for Corbin Carroll when they say stuff like this. He’s right up there in terms of the prep class after Witt jr, Abrams, and Greene. If he’s equip with the tools like Moniak, but better strikeout/walk numbers and plate discipline, that can be an exciting blue chip prospect. The power tool is still a question mark and all projection at this point, but it seems like he’s impressed at every prospects event this year.

 

And with rumors that Texas will take Baty as an underslot, I think Corbin Carroll might be best talent available unless we’re dead set on targeting a pitcher.

Edited May 16, 2019 by BlueRocky

[Boxcar]

With the caveat that I don't actually know anything, both Baty and Carroll seem very appealing.

[jmomcc]

With the caveat that I don't actually know anything, both Baty and Carroll seem very appealing.

 

Me too on Carroll. This seems like the exact era to take a chance on someone who’s only perceived weakness is power. If he has everything else, we are in great shape.

[Brownie19]

Baseball America has some serious praises for Corbin Carroll when they say stuff like this. He’s right up there in terms of the prep class after Witt jr, Abrams, and Greene. If he’s equip with the tools like Moniak, but better strikeout/walk numbers and plate discipline, that can be an exciting blue chip prospect. The power tool is still a question mark and all projection at this point, but it seems like he’s impressed at every prospects event this year.

 

And with rumors that Texas will take Baty as an underslot, I think Corbin Carroll might be best talent available unless we’re dead set on targeting a pitcher.

 

I was kind of thinking along the same lines. I've liked everything I've read about Carroll so far.

[TheOutsider]

Pipeline's latest mock has us with Stott:

 

Toronto is on the trail of the top college pitchers but also is high on Stott, the best of an unusually deep group of college shortstops.

 

Interestingly, they have Corbin Carroll dropping all the way to 19.

[BlueRocky]

Yeah Jim Callis has us mocked with Stott and says we’re interested in college pitching.

 

Previously he mocked us with Jackson Rutledge.

 

Jonathan Mayo had us taking Manoah last week.

 

The draft order is all over the place, I wouldn’t put too much stock into it after top 5.

Some guys always fall.

 

If we’re really after pitching, it’s most likely one of these guys:

College: Nick Lodolo, Alek Manoah, Zach Thompson, George Kirby

Juco: Jackson Rutledge

Prep: Brennan Malone, Matthew Allan, Quinn Priester, Jack Leiter

 

There’s health issues with Thompson and signability issues with Leiter.

Lodolo is most likely top 10 and out of our pick range.

 

You’re most likely getting a guy with a ceiling as a no. 3 / 4 starter. Not saying it’s not valuable, but generally guys never reach their ceilings and underachieve.

Rutledge is somewhat intriguing with both size and stuff, I hear one report he could scratch the ceiling of a no. 2 guy.

 

Front rotation guys missing their ceilings can still make the backend of your rotation.

Mid/backend rotation guys missing their ceilings pretty much are AAAA and Bisons depth (e.g. TJ Zeuch, Jon Harris, SRF)

 

Regarding Alek Manoah, It’s generally been a very short list of SP that could pitch with that size and succeed like CC Sabathia. His college results have been solid though.

 

George Kirby has been a strikeout machine but does it with lower velocity and good command. 6-4 righty that throws your traditional breaking stuff and offspeed that flashes plus.

 

Zach Thompson also had good college results, but health issues and lower velo, but throws from the left side.

 

I can upload their new BA scouting reports if anyone is interested. J4L posted some of them previously

Edited May 17, 2019 by BlueRocky

[Brownie19]

Yeah Jim Callis has us mocked with Stott and says we’re interested in college pitching.

 

Previously he mocked us with Jackson Rutledge.

 

Jonathan Mayo had us taking Manoah last week.

 

The draft order is all over the place, I wouldn’t put too much stock into it after top 5.

Some guys always fall.

 

If we’re really after pitching, it’s most likely one of these guys:

College: Nick Lodolo, Alek Manoah, Zach Thompson, George Kirby

Juco: Jackson Rutledge

Prep: Brennan Malone, Matthew Allan, Quinn Priester, Jack Leiter

 

There’s health issues with Thompson and signability issues with Leiter.

Lodolo is most likely top 10 and out of our pick range.

 

You’re most likely getting a guy with a ceiling as a no. 3 / 4 starter. Not saying it’s not valuable, but generally guys never reach their ceilings and underachieve.

Rutledge is somewhat intriguing with both size and stuff, I hear one report he could scratch the ceiling of a no. 2 guy.

 

Front rotation guys missing their ceilings can still make the backend of your rotation.

Mid/backend rotation guys missing their ceilings pretty much are AAAA and Bisons depth (e.g. TJ Zeuch, Jon Harris, SRF)

 

Regarding Alek Manoah, It’s generally been a very short list of SP that could pitch with that size and succeed like CC Sabathia. His college results have been solid though.

 

George Kirby has been a strikeout machine but does it with lower velocity and good command. 6-4 righty that throws your traditional breaking stuff and offspeed that flashes plus.

 

Zach Thompson also had good college results, but health issues and lower velo, but throws from the left side.

 

I can upload their new BA scouting reports if anyone is interested. J4L posted some of them previously

 

I'm just going to make my vote for 2019 best poster right now. BlueRocky - I love this stuff. Manoah and Rutledge are intriguing if we do want a college arm (assuming Lodolo is off the board).

[metafour]

Guessing "starter ceilings" is pointless, and if you look at scouting reports vs. "projected ceilings" they often don't even make logical sense. Jackson Rutledge is 95-98+ while flashing two plus breaking balls...uhmm, if that clicks, he is obviously AT LEAST a #2 starter LMAO. Some reports even have his changeup as plus at times. I'd say the same for Manoah who feature two 65-grade pitches; a guy like that can pick up a changeup and grossly surpass whatever "mid-rotation starter" label you'll see thrown onto him.

 

Look at stuff; not a guesstimated "projected rotational ceiling" that is wrong 90% of the time anyway. At the end of the day rotational ceiling comes down to values that are unpredictable.

[TheOutsider]

I can upload their new BA scouting reports if anyone is interested. J4L posted some of them previously

 

Definitely interested.