Offseason Roster Thread

[tercet]

I don't think Barnes or Biagini are locks to lose their spots. Pompey either, though I expect him to be gone.

 

Barnes looked dreadful pitching, and his numbers backed that up, he has a 7~era in the 2nd half roughly.

 

Biagini seemed to have gain some stuff on his FB this year as a short reliever, but he has been dreadful, he is arb eligible right? So why would you pay him 2.5~ to be a crappy long-man/7th guy in the pen?

[Pendleton]

Wut?

 

Just poking fun at your strange request in the McKinney thread.

[tercet]

Just poking fun at your strange request in the McKinney thread.

 

It's not a strange request, they both clearly suck, why is it so hard to understand?

[Pendleton]

It's not a strange request, they both clearly suck, why is it so hard to understand?

 

So you request that other people stop wasting time comparing players who you think suck, and then you come to this thread and start writing about players who you think suck. You really don't see the irony there?

 

It is a strange request, because there's nothing wrong at all with comparing two OF who you admit will likely be in the team's plans for next year. Nothing at all about that discussion should bother a normal human being.

[glory]

I don't think Barnes or Biagini are locks to lose their spots. Pompey either, though I expect him to be gone.

 

I kinda hope they hold on to Pompey. The Jays will need a 4th OF anyway and no sense losing anyone with even a tiny bit of upside for nothing since we are rebuilding. But yeah, not being called up in Sept combined with his attitude issues in AAA probably spell the end for him. He'll be in Atlanta by November.

 

Other than that, I don't think there is a crunch. Even when the Jays start adding all the talent they need to add (Wall, Waguespack, Perez, Ramirez, etc), they still have enough s*** on the 40 man as is that they can jettison. Once they start adding FA's, then it will possibly be an issue.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

I would like the Jays to trade, DFA, demote, whatever the following players:

 

Smoak, Solarte, Pillar, Morales, Barnes, and Martin. I don't care how they do it, although I'd like to get an okay return on Smoak and Pillar. That would free up a f*** ton of roster room. I think if we ate $16M of Martin's salary it's doable. Guys like Pompey can at least maybe get some playing time to see if they rise to the occasion or are a bust. Pillar will only get worse and cost > $6M, and he's redundant at this point.

 

Tulo I expect will start the season on the 60-day. Then, I don't know, DFA too I guess.

[Angrioter]

I would like the Jays to trade, DFA, demote, whatever the following players:

 

Smoak, Solarte, Pillar, Morales, Barnes, and Martin. I don't care how they do it, although I'd like to get an okay return on Smoak and Pillar. That would free up a f*** ton of roster room. I think if we ate $16M of Martin's salary it's doable. Guys like Pompey can at least maybe get some playing time to see if they rise to the occasion or are a bust. Pillar will only get worse and cost > $6M, and he's redundant at this point.

 

Tulo I expect will start the season on the 60-day. Then, I don't know, DFA too I guess.

 

 

He's s***

[Carlos Danger]

I would like the Jays to trade, DFA, demote, whatever the following players:

 

Smoak, Solarte, Pillar, Morales, Barnes, and Martin. I don't care how they do it, although I'd like to get an okay return on Smoak and Pillar. That would free up a f*** ton of roster room. I think if we ate $16M of Martin's salary it's doable. Guys like Pompey can at least maybe get some playing time to see if they rise to the occasion or are a bust. Pillar will only get worse and cost > $6M, and he's redundant at this point.

 

Tulo I expect will start the season on the 60-day. Then, I don't know, DFA too I guess.

 

I agree wholeheartedly on the above. Just add Biagini also please.

[Maine Jays]

You forgot Travis.

[Brownie19]

Barnes looked dreadful pitching, and his numbers backed that up, he has a 7~era in the 2nd half roughly.

 

Biagini seemed to have gain some stuff on his FB this year as a short reliever, but he has been dreadful, he is arb eligible right? So why would you pay him 2.5~ to be a crappy long-man/7th guy in the pen?

 

Barnes pitched through knee pain all year. Expect him to have offseason surgery. I don't know if that was a major factor in his results this season, but it may have.

[Brownie19]

Pretty much spot on!

 

Batter

fWAR = 2.0 Pillar and Grichuk

 

Pillar is clear in the lead with 2.5 bWAR and Grichuk is only 3rd behind Smoak.

 

Pitcher

fWAR = 2.1 Happ (embarrassing!)

 

Borucki is the bWAR leader with 1.7 (Happ doesn't even make our top 4)

 

Can I get the cole's notes on the difference between fWAR and bWAR?

[KevinGregg]

Can I get the cole's notes on the difference between fWAR and bWAR?

 

FanGraphs WAR = fWAR

 

Baseball-Reference WAR = rWAR (or bWAR)

 

Baseball Prospectus WAR = WARP

 

Position Players:

Each site uses a different hitting, running, and fielding metrics. FanGraphs uses wOBA as it’s baseline hitting stat, but the other two sites use metrics built on a similar linear weights framework. For base running, each site has it’s own version of base running runs, which we abbreviate to BsR. For fielding since 2002, we use Ultimate Zone Rating, while B-Ref uses Defensive Runs Saved and BPro uses Fielding Runs Above Average. Prior to that, we use Total Zone, which appears to be B-Ref’s choice as well. Baseball Prospectus is the only site that has incorporated catcher framing into their calculations.

 

FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference use the same replacement level calculation of 1,000 WAR per MLB season. Baseball Prospectus’ appears to be slightly different.

 

Pitchers:

While WAR for position players is different among the three sites, it is nothing compared to the differences for pitchers. Generally speaking, the three sites take a run prevention estimate (more on this shortly) and scale it to how much the pitcher has pitched that season. The big difference is that each site use a much different run prevention estimate. Each site adjusts for league and park, so I’ll exclude that from the comparison for clarity.

 

FanGraphs uses Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) as our baseline. However, given that infield fly balls are very similar to strikeouts in terms of being automatic outs, we treat them as strikeouts in our WAR calculation even though they aren’t include in the general FIP calculation. In addition, we include a leverage component when calculating our reliever WAR. I don’t know if/how the other sites use leverage for relievers.

 

Baseball-Reference uses a pitcher’s runs allowed and then adjusts that value based on the overall quality of their defense that year.

 

Baseball Prospectus uses their custom Deserved Runs Average (DRA) metric as a baseline. DRA is a significantly more complicated model that attempts to control for factors like catcher framing, defense, etc within the run estimator itself.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/differences-fwar-rwar/

[Brownie19]

Thanks. I actually saw a Fangraph's writer citing bWAR stats in their article the other day, which I thought was weird (as you'd think they'd be told only to cite their WAR - suggesting it's the 'best').

[P2F]

Thanks. I actually saw a Fangraph's writer citing bWAR stats in their article the other day, which I thought was weird (as you'd think they'd be told only to cite their WAR - suggesting it's the 'best').

 

I posted a link to literally the exact same article in response to you a month and a half ago or so and you told me that I was like your "f***ing Grade 6 French teacher".

 

Moral of the story is that clicking a link is hard for you, I guess?

 

https://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/8092-General-2018-Blue-Jays-Discussion-Thread?p=1294196&viewfull=1#post1294196

[Boxcar]

My grade 6 French teacher was pretty hot

[Ray]

Full list of Rule 5 eligible players:

 

Hector Perez

Patrick Murphy

Yennsy Diaz

Jon Harris

Jordan Romano

Jacob Waguespack

Corey Copping

Forrest Wall

Harold Ramirez

Kevin Vicuna

Max Pentecost.

[P2F]

My grade 6 French teacher was pretty hot

 

Niiiiice.

[BTS]

Full list of Rule 5 eligible players:

 

Hector Perez

Patrick Murphy

Yennsy Diaz

Jon Harris

Jordan Romano

Jacob Waguespack

Corey Copping

Forrest Wall

Harold Ramirez

Kevin Vicuna

Max Pentecost.

 

There's a lot of garbage on the 40-man that can be cleared:

 

- Pompey holds no value at all now that he's out of options

- Jonathan Davis

- Richard Urena

- Rhiner Cruz

- Guerrieri

- Leiter Jr.

- Shafer

- Berti

 

I imagine they'll add Wall, Waguespack, Romano, Harris, Murpy, and Perez and expose the rest.

[Brownie19]

I posted a link to literally the exact same article in response to you a month and a half ago or so and you told me that I was like your "f***ing Grade 6 French teacher".

 

Moral of the story is that clicking a link is hard for you, I guess?

 

https://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/8092-General-2018-Blue-Jays-Discussion-Thread?p=1294196&viewfull=1#post1294196

 

You've exposed my weakness P2F. I feel so vulnerable.

[BTS]

I posted a link to literally the exact same article in response to you a month and a half ago or so and you told me that I was like your "f***ing Grade 6 French teacher".

 

Moral of the story is that clicking a link is hard for you, I guess?

 

https://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/8092-General-2018-Blue-Jays-Discussion-Thread?p=1294196&viewfull=1#post1294196

 

P2F is HEATED

[P2F]

Words with a modicum of substance here from Ross Atkins in regards to the managerial search, the 40-man roster "crunch", the pitching staff, and Tulo:

 

Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins discussed some of his team’s offseason plans in an end-of-season chat with reporters (including the Athletic’s John Lott, and Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith) on Tuesday. Some of the highlights…

 

The team has been in contact with a few managerial candidates already, though the Jays are still “gathering information” on their list of candidates, Atkins said. Initial phone interviews with 10 or more candidates will begin within the week, with a final field of around five candidates then selected for in-person interviews with various members of the Jays organization.

 

The connection between the manager and the franchise as a whole is an important factor, as Atkins describes his ideal hire as possessing an “understanding what it takes for communication to keep not just [a] 25-man roster, but also the 40-man roster, the 200 minor-league players, the 100-plus scouts, the 100-plus coaches and medical staff people pulling in one direction and feeling connected. That person has to be an organizational leader and spokesperson, not just a leader of the 25-man clubhouse.”

 

Bench coach DeMarlo Hale and Double-A manager John Schneider are two of the in-house candidates, and it seems as if the Blue Jays are leaning towards people with some type of managing or coaching background. The new Jays manager “will have experience leading,” Atkins said. “That is something extremely important for us.” The new manager must also be adept at requesting and interpreting the available analytical information, with Atkins specifying that while the manager (and not the front office) will still handle all in-game decision-making. Beyond these requirements, the Blue Jays will “cast as big a net as time and bandwidth can handle” in looking for a new manager, Atkins said.

 

The Jays will be open to re-signing Marco Estrada or possibly bringing back J.A. Happ, who was dealt to the Yankees at the trade deadline. Atkins said that Toronto will first focus on the trade market before looking at free agents, however, and “We’d be looking for complementary pieces, and I think the focus would be slightly more short-term.” This would seem to count out a pursuit of Happ, who wouldn’t require a long contract (he turns 36 later this month), but his solid performance will likely price him out of the Jays’ range.

 

There will be a focus on adding arms to the organization, with Atkins noting “we need to turn some of our position-player depth into pitching. That doesn’t mean we won’t trade from our young core or guys that haven’t even gotten to the major leagues.” Some of the names on the move could be prospects who are eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, as the Jays have a 40-man roster crunch forthcoming and not everyone can be protected. As it is, Atkins expects to lose at least one player in the Rule 5 Draft in December.

 

Beyond pitching, Atkins said Toronto will also prioritize improving the team’s poor defense and baserunning.

 

After Troy Tulowitzki spent the entire 2018 season on the disabled list, Atkins said that the veteran shortstop’s status for 2019 “starts with health.” When asked if Tulowitzki can still be an everyday player amidst the Jays’ younger infield options, Atkins answered “If Tulo’s healthy and performing at a very high rate, then yes. If he’s healthy and his performance isn’t to the calibre that major-league environments demand, then no.” Tulowitzki has been adamant about remaining at shortstop, though it remains to be seen if he can handle any position at all given his lengthy injury history over the years; in addition to missing 2018, Tulowitzki averaged just 98 games a season from 2012-17. Obviously Tulowitzki has virtually no trade value in the wake of his lost year, so the Jays might have to consider releasing him and eating the $38MM still owed to him through 2020.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/gm-ross-atkins-on-blue-jays-offseason-manager-search.html

[Ray]

There's a lot of garbage on the 40-man that can be cleared:

 

- Pompey holds no value at all now that he's out of options

- Jonathan Davis

- Richard Urena

- Rhiner Cruz

- Guerrieri

- Leiter Jr.

- Shafer

- Berti

 

I imagine they'll add Wall, Waguespack, Romano, Harris, Murpy, and Perez and expose the rest.

 

I would add Copping over Waguespack and Harold Ramirez over Jon Harris. But it'll be interesting to see what they do with 40-man.

[BTS]

I don't like the sound of the comments on the rotation.

[glory]

Full list of Rule 5 eligible players:

 

Hector Perez

Patrick Murphy

Yennsy Diaz

Jon Harris

Jordan Romano

Jacob Waguespack

Corey Copping

Forrest Wall

Harold Ramirez

Kevin Vicuna

Max Pentecost.

 

Out of that group, I expect Perez, Murphy, Romano, Waguespack, Wall, and Ramirez to be protected. Copping is borderline.

[KevinGregg]

I don't like the sound of the comments on the rotation.

 

Me either. You can't build a legit MLB rotation in one off-season. Even if they think we probably won't compete next year, I'd love to see them go after a legit starter with a few years of control. Patrick Corbin is the obvious guy to go after in FA. Maybe Colorado would part with John Gray. I don't want to watch another full season of Sam f***ing Gaviglio

[BTS]

Me either. You can't build a legit MLB rotation in one off-season. Even if they think we probably won't compete next year, I'd love to see them go after a legit starter with a few years of control. Patrick Corbin is the obvious guy to go after in FA. Maybe Colorado would part with John Gray. I don't want to watch another full season of Sam f***ing Gaviglio

 

Yup. Corbin, Keuchel, Happ, Morton, Ryu, Kikuchi and any number of possible trade targets. There's no reason to focus only on back-end depth starters

[Jimcanuck]

Me either. You can't build a legit MLB rotation in one off-season. Even if they think we probably won't compete next year, I'd love to see them go after a legit starter with a few years of control. Patrick Corbin is the obvious guy to go after in FA. Maybe Colorado would part with John Gray. I don't want to watch another full season of Sam f***ing Gaviglio

 

Max Fried is an ideal target.

[P2F]

Yup. Corbin, Keuchel, Happ, Morton, Ryu, Kikuchi and any number of possible trade targets. There's no reason to focus only on back-end depth starters

 

The optimist in me is focusing only on the trade target aspect of the Atkins quote and will assume that he's referring to none other than one Jonathan Gray.

[glory]

Me either. You can't build a legit MLB rotation in one off-season. Even if they think we probably won't compete next year, I'd love to see them go after a legit starter with a few years of control. Patrick Corbin is the obvious guy to go after in FA. Maybe Colorado would part with John Gray. I don't want to watch another full season of Sam f***ing Gaviglio

 

If Gray gets traded and it's not to Toronto, I'd be disappointed. As far as upside, that's as high as they can realistically go (assuming the Rox are fed up with him). Other than that, I'm guessing Atkins will trade for the Sp equivalent of 2017 Randal Grichuk. A pitcher who has a lot of potential but is not reaching it and hoping a change of scenery will help. Don't know who that could be, but I'm not expecting a big signing or trade. Maybe that's Gray if the Rockies undervalue him as much as it appears.

[BTS]

The optimist in me is focusing only on the trade target aspect of the Atkins quote and will assume that he's referring to none other than one Jonathan Gray.

 

Yes plz