Jump to content
Jays Centre
  • Create Account

Recommended Posts

Community Moderator
Posted

Man, I don't think there is one anymore.

 

There's a nice little pet project for any industrious baseball nerds (cough GD cough) who want to direct some traffic to their stupid blogsite.

Posted
Man, I don't think there is one anymore.

 

There's a nice little pet project for any industrious baseball nerds (cough GD cough) who want to direct some traffic to their stupid blogsite.

 

Yeah I agree. I think everyone used that old web-based one but the link has been dead for some time. I was wondering what Teoscar Hernandez' MLE's were this year and didn't see anything that I could use.

Community Moderator
Posted
Yeah I agree. I think everyone used that old web-based one but the link has been dead for some time. I was wondering what Teoscar Hernandez' MLE's were this year and didn't see anything that I could use.

 

What's the utility of an MLE though, when you can just use a projection? Why would an MLE be preferable in any way?

Steamer updates during the season on Fangraphs... I think.

 

MLE seems to have a bit of use when players come from Japan, Korea, Mexico, Cuba. But even with those the projections are improving.

Posted
What's the utility of an MLE though, when you can just use a projection? Why would an MLE be preferable in any way?

Steamer updates during the season on Fangraphs... I think.

 

MLE seems to have a bit of use when players come from Japan, Korea, Mexico, Cuba. But even with those the projections are improving.

 

Well for Hernandez I wanted to see his MLE because he has changed as a hitter since he switched up his stance. He's cut his K rate quite a bit. Does a projection take a new stance or approach into account? I don't think it does. At least with an MLE I could just see what he would have accomplished at the MLB level even if it wouldn't give me a forecast of what's to come.

 

I guess the reason there isn't an MLE floating around anymore is because it's basically worthless with all these projection systems around but this might be a rare instance of where it could give some actual useful results.

Community Moderator
Posted
Yeah I think you're right. Projections would roll in the last few years so there would be lag for minor league talent changes, specifically more mature players in the upper minors
Posted
Yeah I think you're right. Projections would roll in the last few years so there would be lag for minor league talent changes, specifically more mature players in the upper minors

 

Yep I think him being older makes the MLE more viable too.

 

I read some reports where they said he could be a starter next year and they had him pegged for about a .260 average with 15-18 home runs and above average base running and defense. That's a pretty decent player for us.

 

But I looked at his projections and they were all terrible. Basically an unplayable hitter. But he played alright in his cup of coffee last year in the bigs and with those scouting reports in mind I read about his changes at the plate and his drop in K-rate. He made the change in 2016 and went from about a 30% K-Rate in AA to 17%. This year his K-Rate was 20% in AAA but his walk rate is up to 11%. He seems like a new player that the projections aren't really picking up on yet.

Community Moderator
Posted

Still just a 118 wRC+ in Astros AAA this year though. I wouldn't expect that to project or MLE very well. That's the 61st best qualified wRC+ out of 159 qualified players.

 

I don't really have increased hope from his numbers.

 

He's a fine transition lottery ticket though. Worth having.

Posted
Yeah he's nothing special with the bat. But with above average defense and base running if he can get his wRC+ to 90 or above he could be a 2015-2016 version of Melvin Upton which is definitely playable and could make him an average starting player.
Posted

 

Thanks now I need someone to help me read/interpret this. lol

 

Here is Teoscar's page: http://www.claydavenport.com/ht/HERNANDEZ19921015A.shtml

 

Is it saying that Teoscar's MLE slashline is .246/.309/.390? If he provides above average base running and defense like the reports say that is probably borderline starter/solid 4th OFer territory.

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
The Jays Centre Caretaker Fund
The Jays Centre Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premier Blue Jays community on the internet.

×
×
  • Create New...