Blue Jays and Edwin have opened contract negotiation talks

[TBJ12]

I hope Edwin stays in Toronto, however, what stands out to me in this story is Encarnacion has not had an at-bat this spring, missing time due to having a tooth pulled and then a strained oblique..

 

I am sure that the Blue Jays want Edwin Encarnacion to stay but it has to be a reasonable amount. Since he is primarily a designated hitter, I think 3 years at $10 million/year would be reasonable.

 

$10M a season for 3 years is a joke. No chance in hell he signs a deal like that.

[RealAccountant]

And they said this when exactly?

 

Multiple times

[burlingtonbandit]

I agree with what they did this year because he's still under control even after this deal expires. But if they lose both EE and JB, there's no reason why the reigning MVP shouldn't be locked up long term and be the highest paid player.

 

I think yes, more from a fan perspective. It would say "we have the money, we're just smart enough to spend it in the right places."

 

Its not as simple as that though because you always need 2 parties to agree to a deal. If Donaldson was asking for $220 million you aren't just going to give it to him because of the FA of 2 other players. If you start running an organization like that its a recipe for disaster.

[nextyear]

$10M a season for 3 years is a joke. No chance in hell he signs a deal like that.

 

Maybe you are right, but I think that a Nelson Cruz type contract is justifiable with fewer years - http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2434&position=OF ; so I think 3 years at $15 million a year is tops for Edwin. In my opinion, Edwin is alright at 1B, however, that is the only position that he can really play so it limits the opportunities to rest Jose in RF and Tulowitzki at SS by giving them games at DH.

 

I actually enjoy watching Edwin both on offense and at 1B, so I hope that he retires as a Blue Jay.

[gruber92]

EE should be offered a 3/50 type deal, take it or leave it. As far as Bautista is concerned, he's as good as gone. Let's hope he has a huge contract year and leads us to a WS title.

[GD]

Edwin WAR last 3 years: 4.0, 3.6, 4.5

Reasonable 2016 projection: 3.0, conservatively

Reasonable aging curve: -0.5

Edwin WAR next three years: 2.5, 2.0, 1.5 (7.5)

 

$/WAR: ~$11m + 9% yr-yr growth

Production value: ~$27.5m, ~$24m, ~$19.5m

Total value: ~$71m over 3 years

Edited March 20, 2016 by GD

[burlingtonbandit]

Edwin WAR last 3 years: 4.0, 3.6, 4.5

Reasonable 2016 projection: 3.0, conservatively

Reasonable aging curve: -0.5

Edwin WAR next three years: 3.0, 2.5, 2.0 (7.5)

 

$/WAR: ~$8.5m + 9% yr-yr growth

Production value: ~$25.5m, ~$23m, ~$20m

Total value: ~$68m over 3 years

 

Could bump $/WAR up even more considering the team's current state. Contracts above^^^ are lowballs.

 

Wasn't it found that comparable players aged a lot faster than the typical 0.5 WAR/year? Body and injury wise the last 2 years have been pretty rough.

[GD]

Wasn't it found that comparable players aged a lot faster than the typical 0.5 WAR/year? Body and injury wise the last 2 years have been pretty rough.

 

This sounds like confirmation bias of guys like VMart coming to mind. I don't know if there's enough of a sample to look at comparable players but I haven't seen any actual, definitive research. Beside, a 3.0 projection next year is probably using a >.5 aging curve as well

[burlingtonbandit]

This sounds like confirmation bias of guys like VMart coming to mind. I don't know if there's enough of a sample to look at comparable players but I haven't seen any actual, definitive research. Beside, a 3.0 projection next year is probably using a >.5 aging curve as well

 

I remember reading an article, I'll see if I can find it.

 

Edit: http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2016/3/10/11192622/how-much-should-the-blue-jays-be-willing-to-pay-edwin-encarnacion

 

He's saying 3/54 which wouldn't get it done.

[GD]

I remember reading an article, I'll see if I can find it.

 

Edit: http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2016/3/10/11192622/how-much-should-the-blue-jays-be-willing-to-pay-edwin-encarnacion

 

He's saying 3/54 which wouldn't get it done.

 

I don't know if 50 players who aren't necessarily similar profiles to Edwin is enough of a sample.

 

He's already under contract for 2016. The extension would start in 2017. Your arithmetic would be 2.5, 2, 1.5.

 

Jaysblue's restructuring talk is in my head. I changed that and $/WAR up to 11.

[KingKat]

Multiple times

 

So basically you can't even come up with one example. That's what I thought.