2016 Top Prospects Lists thread

[King]

Start this s*** off with BP:

 

1. Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers

It’s dangerous to read too much into a month’s worth of

major-league plate appearances, especially when that month

is September. Maybe Corey Seager took advantage of 40-man

roster fodder and teams with one foot on the golf course to

hit .337/.425/.561 as the 2015 season waned, but that’s pretty

consistent with what he has done at every other stop in his professional

career. He hits for average. He hits for power. He may

not be a shortstop forever, as he is a very large human, but the

bat is good enough to play anywhere. Regardless, Seager will be

the Dodgers shortstop in 2016, and he may very well be the best

one in the National League from the moment he sets foot on the

field Opening Day.

 

 

2. Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins

It may be an exercise in hyperbole to refer to our no. 2 prospect

as a “post-hype sleeper” (especially since he’s been our no. 1

prospect the last two years), but in an industry always on the

lookout for the next new hotness, Buxton qualifies as old news.

It doesn’t help his Q rating (or for the Millennials reading, his

Klout score) that he missed most of 2014 with a wrist injury

and then a concussion, or that he looked overmatched at times

in his first taste of the majors. As the old scouting adage goes,

“tools play,” and Buxton’s selection rivals your local Ace Hardware.

He may not be the next Andre Dawson, as we opined in

2013, but Buxton still looks like an impact major leaguer.

 

 

3. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Washington Nationals

Last year was a good one for the Giolito clan. Showtime announced

a Twin Peaks revival (Lucas’ uncle co-created it with

David Lynch, and his grandfather played Dr. Will Heyward, the

remarkably normal town coroner), and the youngest Giolito

made it all the way to Double-A, striking out better than a batter

per inning and flashing true top-of-the-scouting-scale stuff

along the way. He is now more than three years removed from

the UCL tear that kept him from going first overall in the 2012

draft, and with an invitation to Nationals spring training already

secured, Giolito may soon be on the hunt for some cherry pie

and a damn fine cup of coffee in the nation’s capital.

 

 

4. J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies

Crawford will inevitably draw comparisons to Jimmy Rollins,

his predecessor in Philadelphia (future histories will gloss over

the Freddy Galvis epoch). Both were early-round picks and African-American

shortstops out of high schools in California. Sure,

it’s not fair to saddle him with this comp: Rollins is a first-ballot

Hall of Very Good player who won an MVP and made multiple

All-Star games. Crawford may not reach those lofty heights, but

he is a true five-tool player and the total package at shortstop.

 

 

5. Nomar Mazara, OF, Texas Rangers

Texas invested more than $5 million in Mazara, setting the record

for a bonus given to a 16-year-old amateur the year before

international bonus pools were implemented. He’s rewarded

their investment with a quick ascent through Texas’ system,

showing a rare set of offensive tools on a long-levered, 6-foot-

5 frame. Mazara has a pure left-handed stroke that should

produce both contact and home run power at above-average

outputs. The fluidity of his swing path—supplied by long arms

and a physical frame—gives an effortless look to a left-handed

stroke that elicits some Will Clark comparisons. Mazara throws

well but only moves fairly to decently defensively; while he

ultimately could wind up in either outfield corner, it’s the hitting

tools that give him legitimate middle-order, All-Star upside. It

also makes him one of baseball’s best prospects entering his

age-21 season. Mazara had a successful 20-game stint at Triple-A

to end 2015. It isn’t unreasonable to foresee him mashing

his way into the Rangers' lineup at some point in the upcoming

season.

 

 

6. Julio Urias, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers

Following prospects is a great way to be continuously aware

of your own encroaching mortality. Urias is not the youngest

player on this list, but he did spend most of last season as an

18-year-old, and he finished it in Triple-A. This isn’t just agerelative-to-league

novelty: The stuff is potentially elite, and he

has pitchability beyond his years. Urias was dominant in 2015

while only facing two batters who were younger than him (both

during rehab). His combination of youth, polish and stuff draws

comparisons to Felix Hernandez, in part because he is very good

and in part because there’s no one else similar in recent history.

The cold water: Unlike Felix at the same age, Urias has never

thrown even 90 innings in a season, and may not be able to handle

a full 200-inning workload until 2018. But he will be getting

major-league hitters out well before then.

 

 

7. Yoan Moncada, 2B, Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox paid $31.5 million dollars for the 19-year-old

Moncada ($63 million if you include the 100 percent tax Boston

had to pay for exceeding their bonus pool), giving a glimpse

into a world where the top amateur talent is allowed to freely

negotiate their services with teams, a scenario more horrifying

to baseball owners than anything dreamed up by David

Cronenberg. So far Moncada has looked well worth the money

(which is more than you could say for Crash), showing five

average-or-better tools in the South Atlantic League. Moncada

has work to do at second base and may fit better at third,

where he would have more than enough arm for the position. At

either spot, the bat has the potential to anchor the middle of a

major-league lineup.

 

 

8. Joey Gallo, 3B, Texas Rangers

Shortly after he was called up to the majors, Gallo hit a home

run off Clayton Kershaw. The box score describes it as going out

to deep right field, but that dry recitation of the facts does it no

justice. It was a moment that makes you understand why Russian

audiences nearly rioted after hearing The Rites of Spring

for the first time. It was an ode to atonality on the baseball

diamond, a burst of free jazz. Unfortunately, in Gallo’s other 122

major-league plate appearances, his bat was more of a wind

instrument, as he struck out 57 times (including in all three of

his other plate appearances against the Dodgers that day). The

swing-and-miss issues continued after his demotion to Triple-A.

He wields true 80 raw power, and we live in an era when teams

stomach even a 30 percent strikeout rate if the player can play

third base and hit majestic dingers that cause those in atten-

dance to reconsider centuries of acceptable artistic form and

their place in the universe. But any more whiff than that and

you’re looking at just another Quad-A Salieri.

 

 

9. Steven Matz, LHP, New York Mets

It seems odd to call someone who made three playoff starts for

the National League pennant winner a prospect, but Prospect

List protocol demands it. A torn lat muscle and a stiff back in

the second half kept Matz from accruing enough service time to

graduate, but he did pitch enough for the Mets to show off three

average-or-better major-league offerings, including a plusplus

fastball and plus curve. He also has begun to work on the

vaunted “Warthen Slider,” which you may remember from such

70-grade offerings as Matt Harvey’s and Jacob deGrom’s.

 

 

10. Alex Reyes, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals

Reyes has one of the most electric right arms in the minors. His

fastball sits in the upper 90s and touches triple digits. He pairs

that with a potential wipeout curve that he can throw for strikes

or bury to put away hitters. He struggles at times to harness

both pitches, and his command of the fastball is presently

below average. The optimist might say that just means he has

a chance to get even better, and minor-league hitters were no

match for him in 2015 as it stood. The pessimist might point to

the command troubles and the lack of an average changeup

projection, and see “only” a good late-inning arm. Both would

probably agree he has one of the highest ceilings of any current

pitching prospect.

 

 

11. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates

Last season was more of the same for the Pirates’ top prospect,

for both good and ill. Glasnow continued to show a fastball that

can touch the high 90s and a curve that will flash plus. When

both are working, he looks like a guy who will strike out a batter

per inning in the majors, much like he's done at every other

stop so far. Glasnow does struggle from tall-pitcher syndrome

at times (he's listed at 6-foot-8), where his delivery can get out

of whack, causing both his control and command to suffer. The

stuff is good enough that even with those issues, he should

pitch in the middle of a major-league rotation for a while, perhaps

as soon as this year, but the ceiling if he ever works out the

mechanical issues is as high as any arm on this list.

 

 

12. Orlando Arcia, SS, Milwaukee Brewers

 

With improvements across the board in 2015, Arcia turned himself

into an archetypal shortstop prospect. He is smooth in the

field, equipped with a plus arm and plus projection in the glove.

The hitting took a large step forward as well. Arcia has always

been able to put bat to ball, but he added strength in 2015 and

can now get the ball over the infielders. He's not a double-digit

home run threat yet, but pitchers will need to be careful challenging

him, because he can drive the ball in both gaps and let

his plus-plus legs wreak havoc from home to third. The defense/

speed combination was likely going to make him a useful major

leaguer regardless, but now he bats second instead of eighth.

 

 

13. Trea Turner, SS, Washington Nationals

In a scene that Tom Stoppard probably left on the cutting-room

floor, Turner spent the first half of 2015 playing for an organization

that had already traded him. Everyone knew this; most just

nodded along politely and hoped he didn't twist an ankle. He

didn't, and even got a new rule named after him. (Draftees can

now be traded after the World Series rather than their teams

having to wait a year to move them. See Dansby Swanson's inclusion

in the Shelby Miller trade this offseason for an example.)

Despite his high overall ranking, Turner could get overlooked

on a list this deep in shortstop talent. He is a very good runner,

but doesn't have Ozhaino Albies' or Jorge Mateo’s gaudy stolen-base

totals. He is a solid defender, but isn't a potential Gold

Glover like Orlando Arcia or Raul Mondesi. And he can hit, but

the offensive profile isn't as tantalizing as J.P. Crawford's. Unlike

those five names, Turner is already a major leaguer. The Nationals

brought in Stephen Drew to provide a little competition, but

Turner should reach his rightful place before too long.

 

 

14. Manuel Margot, OF, San Diego Padres

Margot's high ranking here is thanks in part to a renewed

emphasis on defense across the game. This is not to suggest

that potentially plus center-field gloves were ever at risk of

becoming passé in scouting circles, but it's easier to get on the

bandwagon in an era when the Royals have won back-to-back

pennants. Margot won't be hitting in the eight hole, either: He's

shown some bat-to-ball ability and gets more power out of his

sub-six-foot frame than you'd expect. The party piece here is the

speed/defense combination, which should get plenty of work in

the still-spacious Petco outfield.

 

 

15. Lewis Brinson, OF, Texas Rangers

Have bat, will travel. Brinson made five stops in 2015, playing

in three different time zones from April 9th more or less straight

through to the end of the year. No matter how short or long his

stay, he impressed the locals by putting balls over the fence,

socking 20-plus home runs in less than a season’s worth of

games. He also cut his strikeouts to a relatively reasonable

rate in this day and age. You’d like to see him do more outside

the very friendly confines of High Desert, but last year was a

breakout from start to finish. Feel free to dream on some 20/20

seasons from a plus center fielder.

 

 

16. Raul Mondesi, SS, Kansas City Royals

One of two players on this list to play in the 2015 World Series,

Mondesi did not fair as well as Matz, striking out against Noah

Syndergaard in his one plate appearance. He does head back

to Northwest Arkansas with a big ring, a large playoff share and

one of the odder Baseball Reference pages out there. Mondesi

struggled in his first taste of the Texas League, as you might

expect from a 19-year-old who has never been even league average

on offense at any of his full-season stops. But the Royals

may continue to be aggressive with his development track, as

the glove will play in the high minors even if the bat is presently

overmatched. If he does learn to hit, and the tools are certainly

there, Mondesi is a slam-dunk first-division shortstop.

 

 

17. Jose Berrios, RHP, Minnesota Twins

The flip side of Tyler Glasnow, Berrios gets knocked for the usual

short-pitcher reasons. It starts with phrases like “fastball lacks

downward plane” and usually ends with “may be best suited to

relief.” A lot of scouting is about comps, and there aren't many

short, slim, right-handed starters in baseball. Berrios might

bust the quota with three potential plus pitches, including a

devastating changeup. There is a track record of durability here

too, at least by pitching-prospect standards. Berrios tossed 166

innings in the upper minors this year, four fewer than Dylan

Bundy has thrown in his entire professional career. That sure

looks like a starting-pitcher profile, even if he doesn't look like

most starting pitchers.

 

 

18. Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees

Judge should make his debut in the Bronx sometime in 2016,

but it feels like a man of his proportions and potential needs a

nickname. For opposing pitchers he might very well be “Judge

Dredd,” or when he fires one back up the box, “Judge Holden.”

Or maybe his 6-foot-7 frame holds “the long arms of the law.”

(When they get extended the 70-grade raw power definitely

plays.) All right, these aren't as good as “Death to Flying Things”

(although Judge should be a good defensive right fielder), so

maybe we'll just let his bat do the talking when he gets to East

161st Street.

 

 

19. Tim Anderson, SS, Chicago White Sox

“Raw” isn't the first adjective that usually comes to mind when

discussing a prospect who hit over .300 in Double-A, but Anderson

is unusual. A basketball state champion in high school, he

didn't play baseball until his junior year, and spent two years in

junior college before being drafted. He still gets by even as he’s

catching up, in part due to his loud athletic tools. His stats grow

harder to hand wave as his competition improves, even though

his approach is still quite unrefined. Anderson may require a

longer adjustment period against major-league pitching than

other prospect bats in this range, and questions about his

long-term position remain, but given how rapidly his skills have

matured in pro ball, this might be the last time “raw” shows up

in his scouting reports.

 

 

20. Brendan Rodgers, SS, Colorado Rockies

Rodgers was the third straight shortstop taken to start the 2015

draft, but he may end up the best of the troika. He won't get to

the majors as quickly as Dansby Swanson or Alex Bregman, the

two SEC players picked ahead of him, but with a potential plus

hit–plus power offensive profile and a glove that will keep him

on the left side of the diamond, Rodgers may be worth the extra

wait. Fortunately, time is one thing the Rockies have had plenty

of lately.

 

 

21. Blake Snell, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays

Snell vaulted to the top of our Tampa Bay Top 10 list after

burning through three levels of the minors with a 1.41 ERA. Minor-league

ERA not your thing? Understandable. He also fanned

163 batters in 134 innings while giving up only 84 hits. The stuff

more than matches the gaudy stats: Snell features a 92–94 mph

fastball with excellent movement and life and pairs it with a

plus slider and a potentially solid-average change. The only

quibble is that you'd like to see him iron out his control issues

before he debuts in the Trop, which will likely be sometime in

2016.

 

 

22. Austin Meadows, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

Meadows has yet to grow into the power some forecast for him

as a top-10 pick in 2013, but there is little else here to complain

about. He's so far assuaged concerns that he can stick in the

middle of the diamond, and his swing still draws raves from

scouts. He may never develop even average home run power,

but he should knock plenty of doubles. That, combined with

his overall hitting acumen and ability to play center field, has

drawn comparisons to Christian Yelich.

 

 

23. Bradley Zimmer, OF, Cleveland Indians

Zimmer struggled in his first taste of Double-A this season,

but the Indians' 2014 first-round pick can take some positives

away from his first full year as a pro. His defense in center field

improved to the point where he may be at least average there

over the middle term, and his solid-average power continued to

show up in games, even against more advanced arms. While he

doesn't have the vaulted ceiling of some of the other prospects

in this area of the list, Zimmer is a polished player on both

offense and defense, and all of his tools grade out at average

or better. If he continues to improve in center field, his broad

base of skills would make him a first-division starter there, and

if forced to a corner, his plus arm and sufficient pop would still

qualify him to play every day.

 

24. Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Colorado Rockies

Hoffman made his professional debut last year after recovering

from the Tommy John surgery that knocked him down draft

boards in 2014. The reports on his stuff continue to wow, even

if the results weren't as dominant as you might expect from

the kind words. He can touch 99 with his fastball and shows a

potentially plus change and curve as well. Dealt from the Blue

Jays to the Rockies at the deadline as part of the Troy Tulowitzki

deal, Hoffman sits near the top of a suddenly thriving Colorado

system. He will be two years removed from surgery in 2016,

and no one would be shocked if he moves into the top tier of

prospect arms on our 2017 list.

 

 

25. Nick Williams, OF, Philadelphia Phillies

Williams was Texas’ second-round pick in 2012, and was considered

one of the best athletes in the draft. Even on a field of

professionals he clearly displays the most athleticism on the

diamond, and that shows up in nearly every aspect of his game.

In years past he hasn't managed to turn those raw tools into

polished skills, but Williams made real strides in that regard

last season, and it culminated in him being a centerpiece of

the prospect package the Phillies received from the Rangers in

return for Cole Hamels. He has freakish bat-to-ball skills that

allow him to reach base despite rarely walking. He has also

hit double-digit home runs in every full season he’s played.

Williams has the raw speed to handle center field, and is slowly

starting to figure out how to take good routes. Naysayers will

continue to question his strike-zone control and lackluster

approach until he proves it in the majors.

 

 

26. Franklin Barreto, SS, Oakland Athletics

For the next couple of years Barreto, who spent last season

at High-A, will be known as “that guy the A's got back for MVP

Josh Donaldson.” He’s less-catchily known as a prospect with

an advanced feel for hitting and more power than you'd expect

from a player listed at 5-foot-9 (which means there's no way

he's actually 5-foot-9). Defensively, he is more of a mixed bag.

Barreto has the arm for shortstop, but there are questions

about whether he will develop the instincts and actions for the

position. The bat looks like it will play elsewhere on the infield,

even if the approach will confuse the people who think Moneyball

was only about taking walks.

 

 

27. Dansby Swanson, SS, Atlanta Braves

Let’s play two truths and a lie:

Dansby Swanson was the no. 1 overall pick by the Diamondbacks,

a college shortstop who should move quickly through

the minors and be a solid regular in the majors, although he

lacks the loud tools and overall ceiling of many of the players

taken behind him.

Dansby Swanson was the first player dealt under the new

Trea Turner Rule when he was included in Arizona’s package

sent to the Braves for Shelby Miller.

“Dansby Swanson” is the name of a popular recurring

character, a bit of an upper-class twit, played by a young Hugh

Laurie in some of his early sketch-comedy work.

 

 

28. Jose De Leon, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers

De Leon was a breakout star in the Dodgers' system in 2015. He

features an explosive fastball that shows good late life, and his

changeup has improved to the point where he is comfortable

throwing it to both right-handed and left-handed batters. De Leon's

delivery produces extension and deception, which makes

the whole package play up. But don't take our word for it, just

ask Cal and Texas League hitters, who struck out 35 percent of

the time against De Leon last season.

 

 

29. Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals

All prospect rankings involve a certain amount of dreaming, but

if you are going to dream, find a player on whom you can dream

big. Robles offers some of the most vivid, 35mm Eastmancolor

dreams in the minors right now. The 18-year-old raked in the

New York–Penn League last summer, forcing scouts to re-evaluate

their expectations. The performance alone would be

noteworthy in a league filled with experienced college arms, but

Robles pencils in three future 70-grade tools (hit, run, arm) on

the scouting sheet as well. He is a long way from the majors, but

he has an impact profile both in center field and at the plate.

 

 

30. Robert Stephenson, RHP, Cincinnati Reds

A lot of what we wrote for Tyler Glasnow also applies to Stephenson.

The Reds' top prospect has two potential 70-grade

offerings in his fastball and curve, but like his NL Central

counterpart, struggles to command them. With Glasnow, the

difficulty is getting his long levers to repeat his mechanics; with

Stephenson, it’s due to what we called a “grip and rip mentality”

on the mound in his pre-2015 scouting report. Last year, he

got all the way to Triple-A and struck out more than a batter per

inning between the Southern and International Leagues, but

the command and control issues lingered. Stephenson struggled

with walks and was a bit more hittable at times than you

would think given the arsenal. There is a no. 2 starter in here

with further refinement, with a mid-rotation or late-inning relief

profile otherwise.

 

 

31. David Dahl, OF, Colorado Rockies

Dahl missed a month in 2015 after having his spleen removed,

the result of a bad outfield collision in New Britain. He was

one of the youngest players in the Eastern League and more

than held his own on the field. Dahl is a true center fielder with

advanced instincts to match his plus speed and strong arm. At

the plate he struggled with more advanced sequencing from

Double-A arms and was vulnerable to fastballs out of the zone

with two strikes. When he does make contact, he does so with

exclamation marks, and he may grow into more power as he

matures. He needs to make adjustments to his approach to fully

tap into his offensive potential, but the defense and athleticism

should make him a good regular in center even if the bat never

fully develops.

 

 

32. Sean Newcomb, LHP, Atlanta Braves

This isn’t a Top 101 of prospects who were traded to the Braves

this offseason, but it’s understandable that you might think so.

Newcomb, the grand prize sent to in Atlanta in the Andrelton

Simmons deal, garners comparisons to Jon Lester due to his

size, handedness and low-effort delivery. Lefties with potential

plus-plus velocity are a rare commodity, but Newcomb has

struggled with his control and command so far as a professional.

Still, he's not just an arm-strength guy; he shows a full fourpitch

mix and more feel than you’d expect from a cold-weather,

small-college arm. If he gets a better handle on his mechanics

and the strike zone, there is front-of-the-rotation upside here.

 

 

33. Jon Gray, RHP, Colorado Rockies

The career of a Colorado Rockies pitching prospect is only

slightly less tenuous than that of a Spinal Tap drummer. While

Gray can do his level best to stay away from gardening shears,

he couldn't avoid breathing in the thin air of Albuquerque and

Denver in 2015. Gray's fastball sits around 95, and his plus slider

will be a bat-misser at the highest level, but command and

altitude issues led to more loud contact than you would expect

from an arm with his arsenal. He's already logged innings in

the majors and has the frame to pitch 200 of them per season,

but he will need to refine his changeup and improve his fastball

command (and avoid spontaneously combusting, natch) to

reach his no. 3 starter upside.

 

 

34. Jake Thompson, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies

Thompson is the second of three prospects on this list that

came over from Texas in the Cole Hamels deal. He doesn’t have

the upside of Nick Williams or Jorge Alfaro, but Thompson’s a

future major-league starter who will show you a plus fastball

and slider to go with an average curveball and changeup. He is a

strike-thrower as well, but his command lags behind his control,

and that makes the whole arsenal a little more hittable than it

should be based on the raw scouting grades. Still, the stuff is

good enough that Thompson should settle into the middle of

the Phillies' rotation as soon as the end of 2016, and he has the

frame for eating up innings once he arrives there.

 

 

35. Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox

It’s unusual even this far down the list to find a plus hit–plus

power bat like Devers. Granted, he’s still very young and a ways

away from contributing to the big club in Boston, but you don’t

have to squint too hard to see an impact major-league hitter

given the above-average bat speed and backspin Devers produces

at the plate. If he were a lock to stay on the left side of

the infield, that’s a borderline All-Star profile, but he’s already

stout at just 18 years old and struggles with his footwork. When

he moves across the diamond to first base, the bat will be just

“good” there.

 

 

36. Ryan McMahon, 3B, Colorado Rockies

You can nitpick McMahon’s performance the last two seasons if

you like. In 2014 he played his home games in Asheville, which

has one of the most inviting right-field porches in minor-league

baseball. And in 2015 he played all of his games in the Cal

League, which is the Cal League. There is 20–home run power

in his bat in any park or league, though, and McMahon is a polished

third baseman with a plus arm, so he will contribute on

the defensive side as well. Perhaps someday he’ll do enough to

please you.

 

 

37. Ozhaino Albies, SS, Atlanta Braves

One of the few 2016 Braves prospects who was also a 2015

Braves prospect, Albies made a smooth transition to full-season

ball as an 18-year-old, hitting .300 in the South Atlantic

League. The diminutive switch-hitter is never going to be much

of a power threat (you’d be forgiven for suspecting his one

career home run was an inside-the-park job), but he offers

major-league tools everywhere else. In a perfect world Albies

is a good glove up the middle while swiping 30-plus bases and

serving as a table-setter for the rest of the lineup. In several

other worlds, he’s a reboot of Casey Candaele.

 

 

38. Braden Shipley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks

For variety’s sake, here are some potential no. 3 starter Mad

Libs:

Shipley features a plus fastball that sits in the mid-90s and

complements it with (pitcher’s name)(scouty verb)

a plus changeup that could be a swing-and-miss offering in the

bigs. His(best off-speed pitch) (synonym for MLB)

curveball lags behind his other two offerings, but could get to

average with further(third pitch) development. The command

profile here is only fringe -average, due to issues

(noun that ends in “ment”)(probably “fringe”)repeating his

delivery. Shipley is a potential manatee on the mound,

capable of taking (pitcher’s name)(strong animal)the ball every

fifth day and logging innings in the middle of a major-league

rotation.

 

 

39. Alex Bregman, SS, Houston Astros

When the Astros selected Bregman with the second pick in the

2015 draft, they got a proven, polished performer from the best

baseball conference in NCAA. You will find plenty of shortstops

with louder tools on this list, but Bregman’s floor is likely higher

than all of them. He shows a plus hit tool and a solid glove

for the position, and may start his first full professional season

in Double-A. He also gets high marks for makeup and is a topstep

player through and through. While he may not be a future

All-Star, Bregman could be contributing to a major-league

team as soon as this September.

 

40. Grant Holmes, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers

Holmes is one of the more underrated pitching prospects in

baseball. He is outshone in his own system by the top-end arm

strength of Jose De Leon and the combination of youth, stuff

and pitchability of Julio Urias. He even got overlooked among

the 2014 prep-arm draft class due to the lack of projection in

his 6-foot-1 frame. The Dodgers may have gotten a steal with

the 22nd-overall pick as a result. Holmes features a plus fastball

and curve, but needs to refine his command and changeup to

reach his projection as a mid-rotation starter. You may have

heard some of this before.

 

 

41. Gleyber Torres, SS, Chicago Cubs

After graduating Addison Russell, Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber

in 2015, it would be forgivable if the Cubs system were

down a bit this year. Their player-development system doesn't

rebuild, though; it reloads. Torres may remind you of Starlin

Castro, although not so much Castro the wizened veteran but

Castro the prospect. He shows the same precocious hitting

ability (Torres hit .293 as the youngest player in the Midwest

League), and there are also questions about whether he sticks

at shortstop long term. Torres cost the current Cubs front office

a few pretty pennies more than the $45,000 that Jim Hendry

and company paid for Castro, but if he can produce the same

results at the plate, it’s unlikely there will be much quibbling

over the $1.7 million “splurge.”

 

 

42. Raimel Tapia, SS, Colorado Rockies

Tapia is a divisive prospect, even within Baseball Prospectus.

He has bat-to-ball skills border on the preternatural. His ability

to get the barrel on almost any pitch leads to some bad contact

and chasing, though. He is still raw in center field, but his plus

foot speed should let him play at least average there with

further development of his reads and routes. The bat would be

pushed in a corner, as the power projection is muddied a bit

by his stints in Asheville and the Cal League. In short, Tapia has

more development room than you would think for a player set

to start the 2016 season in Double-A, but the bat is so tantalizing

that it keeps him in the top half of this list.

 

 

43. Aaron Blair, RHP, Atlanta Braves

Hey, another Braves prospect who wasn’t a Braves prospect

at the beginning of last season! Blair lacks the upside of Sean

Newcomb or Touki Toussaint, but he is a major-league-ready

arm with mid-rotation upside. He has a prototypical starter’s

frame (6-foot-5, 230 pounds) and he’s made 52 starts over

the last two seasons. He may lack a high-end swing-and-miss

offering against major-league hitters (though both the curve

and change have a chance to be above average), but he has four

major-league pitches and a body built to sweat out 200 innings.

 

 

44. Anthony Alford, OF, Toronto Blue Jays

Alford cost the Jays almost twice the third-round slot on a

two-sport deal out of the 2012 draft (he was a highly regarded

quarterback prospect at Southern Miss), and it started to pay

off in 2015. He always had five-tool potential, and it showed up

at the plate in a big way in his first extended taste of full-season

ball. Alford displayed above-average bat speed and an improving

approach, and his athleticism already plays well in center.

Although he lost some development time due to his dalliance

with college football, he will find himself in 2016 a level-appropriate

22-year-old in the Eastern League.

 

 

45. Sean Manaea, LHP, Oakland Athletics

Manaea certainly looks the part of a top pitching prospect. He's

got the prototypical workhorse-starter build. The fastball can

touch 97 from the left side and sits comfortably plus with good

movement. He complements that with a slider and change,

both of which could be at least average. However, there are

a whole bunch of “cans” and “coulds” with this profile. The

Manaea described above doesn't show up in every start, and recently

he hasn't been showing up much at all. An abdominal injury

followed by a groin injury limited him to under 100 innings

in 2015, even after he popped up healthy in the crisp baseball of

autumn. If you shook a Magic 8 Ball and asked it about Manaea,

you'd get an “Outlook Cloudy” or “Ask Again Later.”

 

 

46. Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston Red Sox

A bit of a surprise pick by the Red Sox at no. 7 in the 2015 draft,

Benintendi hit the ground running, putting pitchers in both the

New York–Penn and the South Atlantic League to the sword.

There is no one carrying tool here, and the ceiling isn't as high as

it usually is for a seventh-overall pick, but nothing grades out as

worse than average, and he gets more power out of his 5-foot-

10 frame than you’d expect. His advanced approach makes the

whole offensive profile play up, and he should stick in center

field. The lack of a long professional track record or standout tool

injects some risk into the profile, but there isn’t much more Benintendi

could have done in 2015 to quell any remaining doubts.

 

 

47. Cody Reed, LHP, Cincinnati Reds

Reed moved from the land of burnt ends to the land of “chili”

last summer as part of the Johnny Cueto deal. The tall, lanky

lefty was in the midst of a breakout season in the Royals' system

at the time, and he continued his success in Pensacola for the

Reds. He has an electric fastball from the left side, which sits

92-95 as a starter and has touched 99 in short bursts. Reed pairs

that with a sharp-breaking, upper-80s slider. He still has occasional

issues with control and command, which plagued him

more prominently in 2013 and 2014, due to a bit of a crossfire

delivery and timing issues with his lightning-fast arm action. He

may be best suited as a reliever long term, but his fastball-slider

combo could make him an elite late-inning arm.

 

 

48. Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks

Last year was a bit of a lost season for the Diamondbacks' top

prospect. His major-league debut was marred by a line drive

off his face and general control struggles led to his demotion

back to Triple-A. Shoulder issues followed, and cost him most

of the summer. He showed flashes of what made him a top-10

national prospect at the end of the year in Reno, but this was

the second straight year in which Bradley spent more time off

the field than on it. At his best, he features a mid-90s fastball

and a hammer curve, but much to Riverdale’s dismay, he has

rarely been at his best lately.

 

 

49. Josh Bell, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

We’ve been waiting for years for Bell’s raw plus power to start

showing up in games. It didn’t get all the way there in 2015,

but the hit tool took a huge step forward against upper-level

pitching. He hit .317 between the Eastern and International

Leagues and walked as often as he struck out. Although he has

yet to post double-digit home runs in a professional season,

Bell shows power from both sides of the plate, and even if it

only plays as average in the end, his 2015 makes you feel more

confident that his bat will play in right field (where he isn’t great

defensively, although his arm is good) or first base (where it

doesn’t really matter).

 

 

50. Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds

“Left-field profile” is a pejorative in scout circles, a little like

calling a movie “one of Adam Sandler’s better ones.” The implication

is that the player does not have the athleticism for center

or the arm for right. Left fielders have to hit. Fortunately, Winker

hasn’t had much of a problem with that so far. The raw power

won't wow you, but Winker should deliver plenty of doubles,

hit for a good average and show a strong approach that ties the

whole offensive package together.

 

 

51. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates

Nowadays we all but expect top pitching prospects to lose

a year to Tommy John surgery somewhere along the road,

but two years without a line on the baseball card will raise an

eyebrow. Taillon missed all of 2014 for the de rigueur elbow

surgery, and his path back last season was further marred by

a hernia that kept him off the mound. Before his injury issues,

Taillon had stuff that would easily put him among the top tier

of prospects on this list, and he ended 2013 on the cusp of the

majors. This ranking may look too low in six months, or it may

look too high. It could also look juuuuuuuuuust right.

 

 

52. Brent Honeywell, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays

Most of the press around Honeywell is concerned with his

screwball, taught to him by his uncle, Mike Marshall. It’s a pitch

worth the column inches, already a bat-missing offering in the

minors, but Honeywell is far from a one-trick pony, with a plus

fastball and two other major-league-quality secondaries in his

arsenal as well. That is a quality mid-rotation profile, if a unique

one nowadays. Honeywell also does not lack for moxie, something

else he may have picked up from Uncle Mike.

 

 

53. Clint Frazier, OF, Cleveland Indians

If you remember nothing else about Frazier, highly regarded

2013 prep bat, you probably remember that he had near-elite

bat speed and bright red hair. In 2016, he still swings a fast stick

and is still very ginger. The plus-plus bat speed and lift from his

swing plane translated into real over-the-fence power in the

Carolina League last season, and he cut his strikeout rate to a

more acceptable level. There is still too much swing and miss

in the zone from Frazier, and questions linger about his pitch

recognition and whether he will be able to play center field in

the majors, but oh man does that bug-zapper bat speed seduce.

 

54. Willy Adames, SS, Tampa Bay Rays

Adames rose to national prominence as the main prospect sent

to Tampa in the David Price deal. That brings with it additional

attention and expectations, so it is easy to view his 2015 season

(.258/.342/.379 in High-A) as a disappointment. But Adames will

play the entire 2016 season as a 20-year-old, and the underlying

skill set that makes him a potentially above-average regular at

shortstop are still present. If his lack of foot speed forces him to

second or third (the arm should play at the latter), the bat will

have to take a step forward.

 

55. A.J. Reed, 1B, Houston Astros

Reed is the best first-base prospect in the minors. While that

isn’t quite the dictionary definition of “damning with faint

praise,” you can probably find it in a thesaurus. He will have

to do more than just hit; he’ll have to mash for the bat to play

even average for the position. Fortunately, the skill set fits the

bill. Reed socked 34 home runs across two levels in 2015, and

the scouting reports back up the statistical performance, raving

about his power to all fields and epic batting-practice displays.

The swing that generates this power is long enough that even

with his advanced approach, there will be strikeout issues that

cut into his average, but the potential 30–home run pop and

OBP skills should make up for that deficiency. Reed doesn’t

offer much outside of the bat, even considering the already low

bar at first base, so it’s not the worst thing in the world that he’ll

have the DH option available to him in the majors.

 

 

56. Javier Guerra, SS, San Diego Padres

Guerra entered 2015 as one of our “prospects on the rise” in a

very, very deep Red Sox system. He enters the 2016 season in

the Padres system (he was part of the package for Craig Kimbrel),

and as one of the best shortstop prospects in the game.

Guess he rose. What changed? The slick glove that brought

Guerra to our attention in the first place remains. Everything

he does in the field is loose and smooth, and he shows both

the range and arm the position demands. The bat was the real

revelation. In his full-season debut, the 19-year-old Panamanian

knocked 15 home runs in the South Atlantic League, and while

the power may not reach quite those heights at higher levels,

he’s always shown above-average bat speed and a frame that

could add strength as he ages. Guerra still needs refinement in

his approach, but given the defensive projection, if he turns into

even an average hitter in the majors, he’s a slam-dunk first-division

shortstop.

 

 

57. Willson Contreras, C/3B, Chicago Cubs

Contreras didn't get cut from BP's Cubs top-prospects list

coming into the 2015 season because he wasn't in legit consideration

in the first place. It’s a tribute both to how outstanding

their system is and how large a step forward Contreras took in

2015 that he lands just outside the top 50 a year later. Contreras

came somewhat late to catching, as the Cubs signed him as an

infielder out of Venezuela, and he spent his first three professional

seasons playing mostly first and third. But he’s taken

well to the tools, and is a good bet to be at least an average

defender behind the plate. That said, it was the development

of his bat over the last year that marks him as the best catching

prospect in baseball. Contreras hit .333 in Double-A and set a

career high with 34 doubles; his approach and plate discipline

took a step forward as well. It was a true breakout season, and

another voyage of self-discovery could rocket him into the top

echelon of prospects next year, assuming he doesn't hit his way

to Wrigley first.

 

 

58. Hunter Harvey, RHP, Baltimore Orioles

As you may have gathered, we are now in the middle of the

“oft-injured pitching prospect with potentially great stuff”

range. A healthy Harvey was a top-20 prospect entering 2015,

but was plagued by general discomfort in his forearm area

throughout the season. If that sounds like a precursor to Tommy

John surgery, well, it often is. That would at least clarify the

situation for him, although it would also cost him all of 2016

as well. If a healthy Harvey gets back on the mound, hopefully

his top-of-the-rotation stuff returns with him. He's a potential

no. 2 starter, but that whole “when healthy” thing is a chilling

qualifier for any pitching prospect.

 

 

59. Dillon Tate, RHP, Texas Rangers

The consensus best pitcher in the 2015 draft class, Tate failed to

slip past the Rangers at no. 4, who paid $4.2 million to procure

his services. He features a mid-90s fastball that can touch 98

and a potentially plus-plus slider that will generate whiffs

against both righties and lefties. The changeup has a ways to

go, but that’s how it is for most amateur arms; he didn't need

it much to get Big West hitters out. Tate also has a chance to

become the most famous alumnus of Claremont High School,

a title currently held by The Mountain Goats' frontman, John

Darnielle. It's not a great chance, though; We Shall All Be Healed

is a really good record.

 

 

60. Max Kepler, OF, Minnesota Twins

Kepler has always looked the part of a big, slugging corner outfielder,

but the production from the German has never matched

the body. That finally changed in 2015, as he set a career high in

extra-base hits with 56, and even got a brief cup of coffee with

the Twins in September. Kepler is still playing some center field,

but it’s more of a dalliance given his burgeoning physique and,

maybe more importantly, the existence of Byron Buxton, so it

would be helpful if some of those 2015 doubles turn into home

runs. At this point along his development path, power will be

the last piece of the puzzle, as he has an extremely advanced

approach, can hit for average and runs just well enough nip 15

bases a year.

 

 

61. Brett Phillips, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

The centerpiece of the Carlos Gomez trade, Phillips is a hardnosed

center fielder with a free safety's mentality and an

arbalest for a right arm. He improved his approach at the plate

and grew into his swing last year, and now combines an ability

to make in-swing adjustments with some natural loft and pullside

pop to project as an average contributor at the plate with

additional value added on the basepaths. Phillips didn’t show

much of that pop outside of the launching pad in Lancaster (15

home runs in 66 games in the Cal League, one home run in 54

elsewhere), but he doesn’t need to hit for much power to be a

productive regular in center field given the rest of the skill set.

 

 

62. Nick Gordon, SS, Minnesota Twins

Son of Flash, brother of Dee, Nick garners all the positive epithets

we often hear about a prospect with major-league bloodlines.

You will hear things like “high baseball IQ” and “good feel

for the game.” As far as the tools go, he doesn’t have his older

brother’s elite speed, but he’s athletic enough to stick on the

left side of the diamond and could even end up above average

there due to his strong fundamentals at shortstop and a plus

arm. He’s more advanced in the field than at the plate, but he

showed some feel for hitting and a bit of gap-to-gap power in

his 2015 Midwest League campaign.

 

 

63. Francis Martes, RHP, Houston Astros

Acquired at the 2014 trade deadline as part of the return for

Jarred Cosart, Martes blew through three levels as a 19-year-old

last year, finishing in the Texas League. Along the way he struck

out nearly a quarter of the batters he faced on the strength of a

fastball-curve combo that flashes plus-plus. He is only 6-foot-1

and struggles at times with mechanical inconsistency, so there

will always be bullpen whispers, but Martes has the frame to

handle a starter’s workload and already shows a solid change.

He needs further refinement on the mound, but this is a potential

front-of-the-rotation arm. The fallback position of relief ace

who sits in the upper 90s isn’t too shabby either.

 

 

64. Mark Appel, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies

We have around 100 words or so to describe the player in question

in these blurbs, so some summarizing is always necessary.

Focus on a couple high points, stick in a developmental opportunity,

maybe a quick projection and on to the next one. Appel

confounds that modality. Getting any agreement on him from

scouts and evaluators, even on velocity readings, which vary from

day to day, is a difficult task. Forget about reaching any sort of

détente around his pitch grades or ultimate projection. The best

reports show Appel with three plus offerings (though not always

in the same start) and a possible no. 2 starter outcome. Others

teem with complaints about inconsistency in the stuff from start

to start, inning to inning, even pitch to pitch, and predict a consignment

to the bullpen. “The truth is probably somewhere in the

middle” is an awfully pat conclusion in most instances, but here

the middle is a vast expanse that covers most of the outcomes

likely for prospects good enough to make this list in the first

place. We could go on, but we are already stretching the patience

of our lovely editors and their “around 100 words” diktat.

 

 

65. Jorge Mateo, SS, New York Yankees

The Yankees have spent millions in the international market

over the last few seasons, blowing past their cap in both 2013

and 2014, but their best IFA prospect might be one they paid

just a quarter of a million dollars in 2012. Mateo is an 80 runner

fully capable of stolen-base titles. He offers a potentially solid

glove at shortstop as well. The bat is still quite raw, and may

never win him a Silver Slugger, but he can challenge the old

adage that “you can’t steal first.” Every ball in play is a potential

single, and every ball up the alleys a potential triple.

 

 

66. Jacob Nottingham, C, Oakland Athletics

Nottingham was dealt from Houston to Oakland in the Scott

Kazmir trade while in the midst of a breakout season with the

bat. Granted, he did a fair chunk of damage in the Cal League,

which is quite hitter-friendly, but the swing backs up a plus

power projection to go with the A-ball production. Behind the

plate he’s a mixed bag, with a strong arm but raw receiving

skills. Prep catchers can take longer to develop, and the happy

dreams of a 20-homer catcher are enough to give Nottingham

more time behind the dish.

 

 

67. Ian Happ, OF, Chicago Cubs

It is not mere happenstance that finds Happ on this year's 101.

He's another polished college bat who the Cubs happily added

to their system, selecting the Cincinnati outfielder with the

ninth-overall pick in the 2015 draft. If you happened upon him in

his professional debut last summer, you saw a switch-hitting outfielder

who never looks hapless from either side of the plate, and

shows enough present-day feel and approach to move quickly

through the minors. Happ is not quite athletic enough for center

field, and has run out to all three outfield positions so far in his

brief pro career. There is some thought that he might be able

to play second base, so there is no need for the Cubs to make a

decision about his ultimate defensive home haphazardly.

 

68. Luis Ortiz, RHP, Texas Rangers

A 2014 first-round pick, Ortiz performed very well in his first full

professional season. He posted very impressive strikeout and

walk rates, especially for a 19-year-old in a full-season league.

Ortiz has a workhorse frame, but needs to monitor his weight to

avoid being compared to less complimentary animals. His delivery

is unorthodox, but as his control numbers suggest, he fills

the zone quite well. A potential mid-rotation starter, Ortiz has a

heavy sinker-slider mix with a changeup that can get to average.

A 2017 debut at absolute earliest, Ortiz likely will be capped at

Double-A Frisco this year while logging more innings.

 

69. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Baltimore Orioles

Much of what was written for Hunter Harvey would fit under

Bundy’s name as well. He did pitch in 2015, but he only threw 22

innings, and dealt with shoulder issues for much of the season.

This comes on the heels of arm issues in 2014, and Tommy

John surgery that cost him all of 2013. You might forget that

he pitched a bit in the majors in 2012 after signing a big-league

deal out of the draft, but the Orioles are probably well aware,

as he enters 2016 out of options. If he’s not on the DL, he’ll have

to be on the major-league staff somewhere, but balancing the

building of his arm strength with keeping his rights will be a

sticky wicket for the Baltimore front office and field staff. Why

go through all this trouble for an oft-injured pitcher? Bundy

showed three potentially plus pitches at his height as a prospect.

The number of arms even on this list with that résumé is

very, very short.

 

70. Jorge Alfaro, C, Philadelphia Phillies

It feels like #TheLegend has been tantalizing us with his potential

for years now. Alfaro’s loud tools are fun to talk about,

but they needed to show up in actual baseball games more

consistently, and that still didn’t happen in 2015. Granted,

Alfaro missed a lot of time with an ankle injury, but a leg issue

for a catching prospect, one about whom there were already

whispers regarding his long-term future behind the plate, is very

concerning. Alfaro the player may never live up to Alfaro the

prospect, but this is a prospect list, and it is tough to ignore a

potential five-tool catcher.

 

71. Jorge Lopez, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers

Lopez was nowhere near our 2015 Top 101 list, and only clocked

in at seventh overall in a shallow Milwaukee system. The stuff

projected as average across the board at best, and his performance

in the Carolina League was uninspiring. He looked like a

prototypical projectable guy who hadn't yet projected, physically

or astrally. Flash forward 12 months and Lopez's fastball now

sits 92-94, touching the upper 90s, with a curve that dismays

opponents. He dominated Double-A and got two starts for the

Brewers as they played out the string. He'll likely be back in

their rotation at some point in 2016, and while his occasional

control issues may keep him from being a front-line arm, he

could end up a useful mid-rotation starter, something that

seemed very unlikely this time last year.

 

72. Brandon Drury, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks

Anytime a former 13th-rounder makes his big-league debut,

someone somewhere in an amateur-scouting department gets

an extra half-hour of free continental breakfast at the closest

Days Inn. Drury has a legitimate shot at helping the big club in a

significant way in 2016. He’ll show four average-or-slightly-better

tools, with the power potential standing out as an expected

strength despite curiously poor home run totals in the high

minors. A competent defender at second or third, he’s capable

of occupying prime real estate on the depth chart for the next

several years.

 

73. Anderson Espinoza, RHP, Boston Red Sox

Remember what you were doing at 17? If your answer doesn’t

involve hitting triple digits with your fastball on the back end of

a seven-figure bonus, then you and Espinoza might not have a

whole lot to talk about. The Venezuelan wunderkind forced his

way stateside in his first professional season, then proceeded to

whiff a batter an inning while allowing all of three earned runs

in his first 40 frames of Rookie ball. That’s a 0.68 ERA if you’re

scoring at home. Espinoza’s heater already shows projection as

an elite major-league weapon, and he backs it up with startlingly

advanced feel for a pair of potentially plus secondaries. Still,

his slight build and the natural attrition rate of young pitchers

are reasons enough to keep expectations in check, kind of like

your junior prom date did when you were the kid’s age.

 

74. Billy McKinney, OF, Chicago Cubs

If “left-field profile” is pejorative, “tweener” is an epitaph. But

we come to praise McKinney, not to bury him. He is, after all,

the 74th-best prospect in baseball. True, he doesn’t have the

foot speed for center field, nor the arm for right, and his yearly

total of dingers should just barely creep into double digits once

his game power fully develops. What he can do is engage that

most primal of baseball skills: See ball, strike ball. If we were to

rank these same 101 prospects just on their hit tools, McKinney

would be much higher, and not just because there are a lot of

pitchers. He could be a perennial .300 hitter in an era when that

is a very rare thing. That may be enough to carry a left-field

profile and avoid the tweener tag.

[King]

75. Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, Washington Nationals

A pop-up prospect in the New York–Penn League in 2014, Lopez

proved more hittable over a full season at High-A last year. At

its best his fastball sits in the high 90s and hops to the arm side

in the nick of time. Physical gains also had his curveball snapping

harder and avoiding more bats for Potomac. He struggles

at times to repeat a delivery that can get overwhelmed by his

top-shelf arm speed, but the cadence and raw material for a solid

command profile are present. The Nationals have built his workload

cautiously, and figure to polish him at Double-A this spring.

 

 

76. Reese McGuire, C, Pittsburgh Pirates

McGuire lacks the offensive upside of the other catching prospects

on the 101, but he’s by far the best defender of the group.

He struggled with the bat in the Florida State League last year,

but he offers a plus defensive projection behind the plate with a

plus arm and advanced receiving skills. He’s a good athlete for a

catcher as well, and may grow into more game power over time.

His stock is down until he starts to hit a bit more, but the glove

alone gives him a good shot at a major-league career, even if it’s

the one-day-a-week kind.

 

 

77. Amir Garrett, LHP, Cincinnati Reds

Garrett advanced one level to pitch the entirety of 2015 at

age-appropriate High-A, and he put together an eerily consistent

season compared to 2014, save for an impressively slashed

home run rate. Although he’ll pop the mid-90s from a tough

left-handed angle, he still hasn’t quite figured out how to fully

channel his premium athleticism into a consistent delivery. That

hasn’t necessarily mattered thus far, as he’s shown plenty of

raw stuff to get by in the lower minors, but 2016 will bring with it

a stronger challenge at Double-A and a chance for Reds brass to

figure out Garrett's place among the organization’s expanding

hierarchy of interesting pitching prospects.

 

 

78. Yadier Alvarez, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers

We’ve reached the point in gluttonous Dodgers spending where

they could throw eight figures at the shruggy emoticon guy and

nobody would so much as raise an eyebrow. Their outlay for the

19-year-old Cuban wasn’t quite that random, but it was certainly

aggressive given Alvarez’s poor production in junior-league

play. A well-timed growth spurt helped his velocity spike into

the high 90s when he defected last year, and he tantalizes

with premium arm speed and flashes of a wipeout slider. The

mechanics are raw enough to be served on lightly toasted rye

bread, however, and he struggles mightily to repeat his delivery

and command the baseball right now. The upside is massive,

and the risk would be too, if risk mattered to the Dodgers.

 

 

79. Austin Riley, 3B, Atlanta Braves

A two-way player in high school more generally regarded as a

future hurler heading into the draft, Riley heard his name on

day one thanks to an Atlanta front office that preferred the raw

thunder in his bat. He didn’t disappoint after signing, slugging

a dozen rhombuses and 14 doubles in his 60 games of Rookie

ball. He generates plus-or-better power with an easy, country-strong

swing, though an Ugglan strikeout rate warrants

caution. His strong arm and surprising agility for a big man

lend hope that he can stay at the hot corner long term, while

his dreamy blue eyes and plus baseball name round out the

package of a potential franchise cornerstone.

 

 

80. Harold Ramirez, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

A 2011 bonus baby out of Colombia, Ramirez would have

comfortably led the offense-challenged Florida State League

in hitting had he tallied a qualifying number of at-bats. The

well-rounded outfielder failed to do so, however, because the

team held him back for extensive conditioning work after he

showed up last spring heavily emphasizing the “round.” And the

“heavily.” (He was overweight.) Questions of focus and dedication

notwithstanding, Ramirez can really hit. His barrel-delivery

and feel for contact are both well above average, and his frame

suggests ample power should be on the way as his approach

matures. His body type and lack of arm strength may force him

to left field, but the Pirates aren’t likely to mind if he reaches his

offensive potential.

 

 

81. Jose Peraza, SS, Cincinnati Reds

When a top prospect is traded twice in the space of four

months, it tends to elicit sidelong glances. Why was the player

deemed expendable? The focus turns to what he can’t do. There

are things Peraza can’t do, to be sure. He won’t walk much or hit

for any sort of power. That profile can be tough at the highest

level, because major-league arms will challenge you if the worst

they can expect is a line-drive single. Peraza can give you those

those, though. He can also run and has experience at all three

up-the-middle positions. If he improves at shortstop, he's an

everyday player; he's also a guy worth trading for twice.

 

 

82. Kolby Allard, LHP, Atlanta Braves

Allard is a true oddity on this list. Not that the ranking is out of

place or anything: He was the best prep arm in the 2015 draft,

synecdochally speaking. The little lefty will flash three plus

pitches and also gets high marks for command and pitchability

given his age. No, the weird thing is that he is listed as a Braves

prospect, but as far as we here at Baseball Prospectus can tell,

at no point in time has Allard played any of his amateur baseball

in the state of Georgia. We’ll continue to investigate.

 

 

83. Albert Almora, OF, Cubs

Almora’s well-rounded skill set hasn’t quite coalesced at the

superstar speed of some of his fellow 2012 first-rounders, but

it’s getting there. An aggressive approach has frequently undercut

his promising hit tool and limited his solid power potential

as he’s journeyed up the ranks. But while the power remains

nascent he made notable progress in upping his previously

abysmal walk rate at Double-A last year, and he continued to

make contact at a fine clip. He shines in the field, and though he

lacks for much more than average raw foot speed he is blessed

with an innate ability to anticipate and read contact. It remains

an open question whether the offensive package is likely to get

to first-division caliber, but the defense and drive should be

more than enough to grant him an audition to find out in the

near future.

 

 

84. Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays

Guerrieri’s stuff may merit a higher place on this list, but he’s yet

to have the opportunity to show that stuff across a full season:

The 78 innings he threw in 2015 were a career high, and he was

drafted all the way back in 2011. Most of the other first-round

prep arms from that draft have already debuted in the majors or

are knocking on the door (e.g. Jose Fernandez, Joe Ross, Dylan

Bundy, Archie Bradley and Robert Stephenson), while Guerrieri

has thrown just 36 innings above A-ball. The fastball-curve combo

both show up as plus, but given his durability issues and lack

of an above-average future projection for the change, he may

end up as a late-inning reliever.

 

 

85. Daz Cameron, OF, Houston Astros

Writing about teenage prospects will make you feel old, as

we’ve mentioned before. Writing about teenage prospects

whose father’s career you remember from start to finish will

make you feel... really old. Daz is the son of former All-Star Mike,

and the Astros gave him $4 million in last year's draft, tying him

for the fifth-highest bonus paid. Daz may not offer the same

speed-power combo his father did, and he’ll almost certainly

never hit four home runs in a game, but he has a good shot to

stick in center field, and he has a broad set of offensive tools to

bet on with an up-the-middle defensive profile.

 

 

86. Dominic Smith, 1B, New York Mets

Unix programmers follow a guiding philosophy of DOTADIW (Do

One Thing And Do It Well). Meet Smith. Dude can hit. He's a firstbase-only

prospect, and he has yet to show much in the way

of game power in his first two professional seasons, but he has

preternatural bat-to-ball skills and started driving the ball into

the left-center gap more in 2015. It's still a difficult profile, and

he has a high-maintenance body even for first base, but when

you watch him swing the bat, those thoughts drift further from

your mind. Now if only we could get you all using mutt for email.

87. Michael Fulmer, RHP, Detroit Tigers

Various arm and leg issues cost Fulmer large chunks of 2013

and 2014. He shook them off in 2015, and showed why he was a

supplemental first-round pick. The fastball is still a plus offering

that can touch the mid-90s consistently, and his slider took a

large step forward. The changeup lags behind, and this was the

first full (ish) healthy season Fulmer has pitched, so there will be

lingering questions about whether he is a major-league starter.

He looks built for a 200-inning workload, so he could turn into

a mid-rotation stalwart with further command and changeup

refinement, but he may be best suited as a late-inning reliever

where the fastball-slider combination could play up further in

short bursts.

 

 

88. Daniel Robertson, SS, Tampa Bay Rays

We hope you’re not tired of reading about shortstops yet,

because we have a few more to go. Robertson technically

qualifies: Sent to Tampa in the Ben Zobrist deal with Oakland,

he demonstrates below-average range at the position, although

both the A’s and the Rays have never been shy about playing

shortstops who are stretched. He has the arm for third, but he

has yet to show the over-the-fence power for a corner (outside

of the Cal League, anyway). If he does find himself banished

from shortstop, there still might be enough OBP and doubles

power in the profile to carve out a career as a regular.

 

 

89. Kyle Zimmer, RHP, Kansas City Royals

Zimmer has now compiled a stellar 3.28 ERA in parts of four

professional seasons, but he’s also logged more days on the

disabled list than innings on the mound. Last year, a setback in

rehabbing his surgically repaired shoulder delayed his debut

and ultimately cost him two more months of development,

after which the organization conservatively limited his innings

in a relief role for the bulk of the season. When he did toe the

rubber he still showed the same premium velocity and hammer

curveball that got him drafted as the fifth-overall pick back

in the day. Short of hiring away the white-gloved Stanley Cup

bodyman to shadow him, it’s unclear what else the Royals can

do to keep their top pitching prospect on the mound for a full

season. They’ll try again in 2016.

 

 

90. Hunter Renfroe, OF, San Diego Padres

“Right-field profile” doesn't get the same bad press as the other

corner outfield spot, but it puts similar pressure on the bat to

perform. Our vision of a right fielder is more in line with a baseball

player who oozes tools. Sure, maybe he isn't quite athletic

enough for center (Renfroe certainly isn't), but we are more

likely to find a big arm and some lift in the swing next to the no.

9 on your scorecard (Renfroe gives you both). There's enough

swing and miss here that the 70-grade raw power may only

play as 60 against major-league pitching, but, coupled with his

above-average athletic tools for a corner, that should make him

a solid regular for the Friars as soon as the second half of 2016.

91. Yusniel Diaz, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

A legend of the Cuban junior leagues, Diaz signed with the

Dodgers for eight figures because of course he did. He’s a

center fielder by trade, with four above-average tools and raw

power that may evolve into a fifth depending on how his body

develops. He already shows solid command of the zone, leading

evaluators to believe that outstanding hand-eye coordination

can help him play as a top-of-the-order asset who gets on base

and steals some bags. That assumes, of course, that the Dodgers

haven’t bought all of the free agents by then and left him as

a superfluous—if quite rich—career minor leaguer.

 

 

92. Gary Sanchez, C, New York Yankees

This is Sanchez’s sixth appearance on a BP Top 101, so it falls to

him to show the kids how to fix the copier and where we keep

the K-Cups. He took steps forward on both sides of the ball in

2015, and the plus power and plus-plus arm that have kept him

on every new iteration of this list are still very much present.

Evaluations differ on whether he is a catcher long term, but

the Yankees have an opening for him behind the plate in 2016,

albeit as a backup, so we prospect writers should at least be

able to avoid the seven-year itch. Maybe Sanchez should avoid

any subway grates around the D train just to be on the safe side

though.

 

 

93. Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros

Tucker's swing was the subject of much internal discussion

here at BP Towers. It's difficult to find a modern comp for it, as

nowadays no one loads their hands quite as low as he does. The

result was email threads filled with grainy film of Ted Williams

and Stan Musial. Needless to say, those are a couple of wildly

unfair names to drop in the commentary for any hitter, much

less an 18-year-old, even one highly regarded enough as an

amateur to get picked fifth overall. Tucker needs to work out the

occasional timing issues with his left hook of a swing and add

more physical strength in order to generate enough power for

his right-field projection. He remains one of the most intriguing

amateur bats in the 2015 class, and he can always pick up some

free pointers from older brother, Preston.

 

 

94. Alex Jackson, OF, Seattle Mariners

The 20-year-old Jackson is a bit young for the “post-hype sleeper”

designation, but hitting just .157/.240/.213 in the Midwest

League after getting pegged as the sixth-overall draft pick will

dissipate your hype quickly. He fared better in the Northwest

League, where he was hardly an old man, and showed more

of the power that made him such a highly regarded amateur

talent. Jackson is limited to right field, so he will have to hit a

lot, but the pedigree and potential are still there.

 

 

95. Franklyn Kilome, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies

Kilome may very well be the rawest arm on this list. He’s a

6-foot-6 string bean who has yet to throw a pitch in full-season

ball. The stuff that earns him this spot only shows up in flashes

right now. That’s the (possibly temporary) bad news. The good

news is he has plus-plus arm strength and bumped the upper

90s last summer for Williamsport. He will also flash a plus curve.

The development path will be long for Kilome, but there may be

projection left in his frame, and the upside is very, very high.

96. Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets

Rosario has turned into a very different type of prospect than

the Mets might have figured when they gave the Dominican

shortstop $1.7 million in 2012. Scouts thought he might grow

into serious game power but out of the position. Rosario hasn’t

really put on mass, and hit zero home runs in the Florida State

League (where he was the youngest every-day player) last year,

but he has made huge strides with his defense. Rosario now

looks like he could be an above-average glove, and he does

have incredibly quick wrists that should at least give him gap

power as he continues to physically mature. He may not be the

prospect we expected, but he’s still a good one. If you were just

here for the shortstops, you can quit now. No more, promise.

 

 

97. Eddy Julio Martinez, OF, Chicago Cubs

Martinez might want to steer clear of the Swan Oyster Depot for

a while after backing out of a deal with San Francisco to take

$3 million from the Cubs. It's not the end of the world (Chicago

has almost as many Michelin stars as offensive stars nowadays),

but the 20-year-old Cuban outfielder still has a ways to go

developmentally before he'll be scoring reservations at Alinea

or 42 Grams. Martinez is likely to start 2016 in South Bend (best

restaurant according to TripAdvisor: LaSalle Grill), where he will

start to answer the questions about his power potential and

ultimate defensive home in the outfield.

 

 

98. Michael Kopech, RHP, Boston Red Sox

Kopech's dominant season in the South Atlantic League was

cut short in July by a 50-game suspension for using a banned

amphetamine. If you insist the two are related we will point

you to that XKCD comic about correlation versus causation

(no. 552; there truly is an XKCD for every situation). Even in an

abbreviated stint, Kopech showed a fastball that could bump

the upper 90s and a potentially plus power curve. The mechanics

(like much of the rest of the profile) are a bit raw and he may

eventually settle in as a power arm in the bullpen. Given that he

won't turn 20 until a month into the 2016 season, Kopech still

has plenty of time to try sticking as a starter.

 

 

99. Trent Clark, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

Clark’s is an unusual profile among first-round prep picks, especially

one likely to end up in a corner spot. He has an advanced

approach and impressive pure hitting ability for his age, but

lacks big-time athletic tools. Without much in the way of projected

power or enough speed for center field, Clark will have

to hit his way to the majors. Fortunately, he may very well have

been the best overall high school hitter in last year’s draft class.

 

 

100. Conner Greene, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays nabbed Greene as a projectable Southern California

prep arm in the seventh round of the 2013 draft. He, uh,

projected, climbing three levels of the minors in his full-season

debut. The skinny 6-foot-3 right-hander can run his fastball up

to 98 and sits comfortably at 92-94. The curveball and changeup

will both flash average, but are in need of further development.

Greene got all the way to Double-A, but he is still a bit of a raw

athlete on the mound. The stuff is good enough that with more

development time he could round into a mid-rotation starter,

although the top-end velocity he showed last year would also

be alluring in a late-inning role.

 

 

101. Forrest Wall, 2B, Colorado Rockies

If Trent Clark was considered the best pure hitter among the

prep bats in 2015, Wall got similar accolades in 2014. He has

a swing geared to spray line drives all over the outfield and

has one of the best pure hit tools in the minors. He’s inexperienced

at second base, only being forced there after undergoing

labrum surgery in high school, which has left his arm well below

average. He has the foot speed to play in center field, though so

far the Rockies have left him at the keystone, where he projects

as an average defender. Wall’s swing is geared for contact over

power, so his average raw power may end up playing more

fringy in games. Having conquered the lefty's paradise in Asheville,

he will head to the Cal League in 2016. Life can be tough

out there for second-base prospects, but Wall is a good one.

[Ehjays]

#44 and 100 not bad.

 

I remember alot of people had written Alford off.

[Angrioter]

Joey Gallo 8th isn't smart at all

[Dr. Dinger]

When is that list from? They haven't released their 2016 list year AFAIK.

[King]

When is that list from? They haven't released their 2016 list year AFAIK.

http://www.turnerpublishing.com/files/uploads/BP-101Prospects.pdf

[Cyborg]

Joey Gallo 8th isn't smart at all

Why not? Mondesi is the most egregious.

[43211234]

I feel like Gary Sanchez has been on these lists as long as I can remember.

[Angrioter]

Why not? Mondesi is the most egregious.

Arm and insane power, but skillset

[Laika]

Why not? Mondesi is the most egregious.

 

Mondesi is legit

 

He will out-WAR 80% of this list, career.

[Cyborg]

Modesi is legit

 

He will out-WAR 70% of this list, career.

Mondesi = Ryan Goins.

[Laika]

Mondesi = Ryan Goins.

 

Ryan Goins is legit

 

Mondesi will be a league average hitting MLB shortstop though, by the time he's 25

[Angrioter]

Mondesi is the real deal. 5 tools SS, and success at young age in the minors.

[Boxcar]

I find it amusing that BP seems to think the average 1B hits 40 homers with a .900 OPS.

[Laika]

I find it amusing that BP seems to think the average 1B hits 40 homers with a .900 OPS.

 

And yet Dominic Smith makes their top 100, lol.

 

.097 ISO in 1221 pro PA

[Boxcar]

And yet Dominic Smith makes their top 100, lol.

 

.097 ISO in 1221 pro PA

 

I give them a 25 consistency tool

[Dr. Dinger]

Tapia is a SS now? This is a real buoy for my BORED and LOD squads.

[Angrioter]

And yet Dominic Smith makes their top 100, lol.

 

.097 ISO in 1221 pro PA

 

It's about drafting spot and signning bonus.

[Dr. Dinger]

No Carson Fulmer! My dreams are dashed.

[Angrioter]

Ian Happ at 2B is so sexy

[P2F]

I feel like Gary Sanchez has been on these lists as long as I can remember.

 

His stock had taken a pretty big blow over the past couple of seasons, but, according to scouts, he found his game again last year. The stats back it up, too.

[P2F]

I'm shocked that Montas isn't on this list.

[G-Snarls]

I keep forgetting and then remembering that we traded Hoffman

[Angrioter]

I keep forgetting and then remembering that we traded Hoffman

 

.... and he will be destroy in the coors field. Anderson Espinosa is the man now

[Angrioter]

The real genius of AA is that he traded Hoffman to COL to get destroyed game in and game out so we'll never know how good he is.

 

Hoffman was the only guy we lost at the deadline that I think could hurt us.

 

Low K and TJS scared me, but you're right, he could become in a real deal. Daniel Norris is going to be good

[TheHurl]

And yet Dominic Smith makes their top 100, lol.

 

.097 ISO in 1221 pro PA

 

that .411 slugging percentage was the 4th best in the league, and the other three were 25+. He's not your prototypical 1B but he'll be somewhere between Yonder Alonso and a real 1B...and doing it at age 24.

[Laika]

that .411 slugging percentage was the 4th best in the league, and the other three were 25+. He's not your prototypical 1B but he'll be somewhere between Yonder Alonso and a real 1B...and doing it at age 24.

 

~30th in ISO

 

2015 was an inordinately s***** year in the FSL for hitting prospects - in the past couple of years he would have lined up even worse (~45th in ISO).

 

It's true that the FSL is basically the shittiest offensive environment in the minors. You just have to squint so hard to like a 60 hit, 50 power 1B prospect. Present day Joe Mauer? James Loney in a 75th percentile outcome?

 

Ryan Goins and K f***ing P slugged about the same in the FSL.

[Krylian]

I feel like Gary Sanchez has been on these lists as long as I can remember.

 

Jameson Taillon too.

[AdamGreenwood]

Here's another list: (From Prospect 361)

 

1. Corey Seager LAD SS

2. Byron Buxton Min OF

3. J.P. Crawford Phi SS

4. Yoan Moncada Bos 2B

5. Alex Reyes Stl RHP

6. Brendan Rodgers Col SS

7. Lucas Giolito Was RHP

8. Tyler Glasnow Pit RHP

9. Lewis Brinson Tex OF

10. A.J. Reed Hou 1B

11. Julio Urias LAD LHP

12. Dansby Swanson Atl SS

13. Trea Turner Was SS

14. Orlando Arcia Mil SS

15. Nomar Mazara Tex OF

16. Steven Matz NYM LHP

17. Manuel Margot SD OF

18. Rafael Devers Bos 3B

19. Andrew Benintendi Bos OF

20. Kyle Zimmer KC RHP

21. Alex Bregman Hou 2B/SS

22. Jose Berrios Min RHP

23. David Dahl Col OF

24. Blake Snell TB LHP

25. Dylan Bundy Bal RHP

26. Archie Bradley Ari RHP

27. Aaron Judge NYY OF

28. Franklin Barreto Oak SS

29. Jose De Leon LAD RHP

30. Nick Williams Phi OF

31. Jorge Mateo NYY SS

32. Sean Newcomb Atl LHP

33. Gary Sanchez NYY C

34. Austin Meadows Pit OF

35. Brett Phillips Mil OF

36. Raul Mondesi KC OF

37. Brad Zimmer Cle OF

38. Jon Gray Col RHP

39. Robert Stephenson Cin RHP

40. Tim Anderson CHW SS

41. Hunter Renfroe SD OF

42. Alen Hanson Pit 2B

43. Jesse Winker Cin OF

44. Josh Bell Pit 1B

45. Kyle Tucker Hou OF

46. Jameson Taillon Pit RHP

47. Ozzie Albies Atl SS

48. Max Kepler Min OF

49. Javier Guerra SD SS

50. Jorge Alfaro Phi C

51. Aaron Blair Atl RHP

52. Braden Shipley Ari RHP

53. Touki Toussaint Atl RHP

54. Anthony Alford Tor OF

55. Dominic Smith NYM 1B

56. Gleybar Torres CHC SS

57. Dillon Tate Tex RHP

58. Taylor Guerrieri TB RHP

59. Raimel Tapia Col OF

60. Michael Fulmer Det RHP

61. Jose Peraza Cin SS/2B

62. Matt Olson Oak 1B

63. Frances Martes Hou RHP

64. Brent Honeywell TB RHP

65. Clint Frazier Cle OF

66. Ian Happ CHC OF

67. Garrett Whitley TB OF

68. Jeff Hoffman Col RHP

69. Derek Fisher Hou OF

70. Amed Rosario NYM SS

71. Jacob Nottingham Oak C

72. Harold Ramirez Pit OF

73. Kolby Allard Atl LHP

74. Sean Manaea Oak LHP

75. Luis Ortiz Tex RHP

76. Jake Thompson Phi RHP

77. Billy McKinney CHC OF

78. Clint Coulter Mil OF

79. Rob Kaminsky Cle LHP

80. Michael Reed Mil OF

81. Brandon Nimmo NYM OF

82. Roman Quinn Phi OF

83. Daz Cameron Hou OF

84. Trent Clark Mil OF

85. Carson Fulmer CHW RHP

86. Mark Appel Phi RHP

87. Tyler Kolek Mia RHP

88. Amir Garrett Cin LHP

89. Nick Plummer Stl OF

90. Keury Mella Cin RHP

91. Tyler Jay Min LHP

92. Jack Flaherty Stl RHP

93. Kevin Newman Pit SS

94. Brady Aiken Cle LHP

95. Hunter Harvey Bal RHP

96. Forrest Wall Col 2B

97. Frankie Montas LAD RHP

98. Grant Holmes LAD RHP

99. Bobby Bradley Cle 1B

100. Victor Robles Was OF

[Brownie19]

How on earth is Dylan Bundy still #25?

 

Also - Bregman and Correa up the middle in Houston is going to be pretty sick...errr, I guess one shifts to 3rd with Altuve sticking at 2nd? Damn that's a nice problem to have.