Trading a power bat might be the solution

[jawadh]

Long time lurker, first time posting.

 

We all know going into the 2016 season, the Toronto Blue Jays will not have to worry about scoring runs. The Blue Jays have scored almost 900 runs all season with the Yankees finishing a distant 2nd with 764. One glaring need coming into the season would be the state of the starting pitching.

 

David Price, Marco Estrada (Who was offered a qualifying offer, which he would likely reject) and Mark Buehrle are all likely gone. Thats 60% of the rotation not returning. Not to mention the struggles of Drew Hutchison all season, it can be argued that going into the season, Toronto will cast of 1-2 punch of Marcus Stroman and R.A. Dickey. Marcus Stroman is capable of amazing things, but you can’t expect him to carry the team all season. R.A. Dickey is R.A. Dickey, you can expect 200+ Innings and a Sub-4.00 ERA. But how about the rest of the rotation?

 

The Jays are hoping that if Estrada rejects the offer, they can still work out a deal with him, even though it means competing with other suitors. Estrada, seem to enjoy his success and the situation he created for himself in Toronto, so barring any major offers from other teams, the likelihood of him returning is pretty strong. There are a couple of intriguing free agents this off-season namely David Price and Ryan Zimmerman. Even if the Jays sign one of the big players this off-season they still need to fill out the rest of the rotation. Trading away one of their big bats, is simply taking a position of strength and moving it to fill a position of weakness.

 

The biggest trade assets the Jays have are Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion and Tulowitzki. Who are your 2-5 hitters. Donaldson is not going anywhere. He’s controllable for the next 4 years at a very affordable contract. Both Bautista and Encarnacion are free agents after next season. Bautista, is the heart-and-soul of this franchise for the pass 5 years and trading him (and his batflip) away will turn a lot of fans off. Not to mention, Bautista is a 10-and-5 player. Which means he has over 10 years of MLB service and 5 years with the same team. This qualifies him to have a no-trade clause. So if the Jays wanted him traded, Bautista has to agree to it. Encarnacion is in the same boat, he’s one of the important pieces in the Jays offense, but he too is a 10-and-5 player and trading him will require his authority. Both Bautista and Encarnacion seem to embrace the situation they have in Toronto and I highly doubt they will agree to any trade especially in their late stages of their career, since they both want to win now.

That leaves us with Troy Tulowitzki. Trading Troy Tulowitzki might be the right move for the Blue Jays. Troy Tulowitzki also has a no-trade clause. Once he was dealt to Toronto, Tulowitzki is granted a $2-million assignment bonus and his contract converts to a full no-trade clause from here on out. However, he was completely blind-sided by the trade from Colorado and it can be argued that he wasn’t happy being here and will welcome a trade back south of the border. Let’s assume he welcomes a trade. What can the Jays get for him? Since the farm system is depleted, I think a young controllable young starting pitcher that can slot into the number 3 position and a couple of prospects would do it. This would address a few issues.

 

First, it will free up $20 million (less the players coming back), which can be used to grab one of the big-arm free agents. Secondly, help rebuild the farm system, which was emptied to give the Jays the run they had this past season. Thirdly, Tulowitzki isn’t exactly Ironman. He’s missed a significant amount of time every year and playing on turf isn’t improving that odd. And finally,it makes the decision to start Goins and Travis in the middle of the infield going forward a little more convincing. Although Tulowitzki is an above average defender, it can be argued that moving Goins to shortstop improves Toronto defensively. Offensively of course the Blue Jays would lose plenty of power as he is likely the second best short-stop in the game (behind Carlos Correa), but offense shouldn’t be a problem because the Blue Jays were scoring runs in bunches before Tulowitski came here.

 

On the other hand, trading Tulowitski will put a lot of pressure on Devon Travis to produce. In a small sample size, he has shown plenty of reason to be optimistic. But, that's the problem, its a small sample size. Signing a guy like Ben Zobrist might be a top priority for the Jays going into the offseason if trading Tulowitski is in their thoughts. He can fill in at shortstop, second base and can also play the outfield if Toronto needs to give Bautista, Revere or Pillar a day off. Oh, and he’s been a Jays killer his whole career. The old adage of “If you can’t beat them join them” might bode will for the Blue Jays. Trading Tulowitski can also jeopardize the future of this team offensively after the 2016 season. If he’s traded and Bautista and Encarnacion leave (They are both free agents after 2016). Donaldson would be the lone power bat left from Mount Crushmore.

[Brownie19]

Jesus Christ.

[burlingtonbandit]

 

Should of just read this so you didn't have to waste all that time typing that.

[Nafro]

 

Should of just read this so you didn't have to waste all that time typing that.

 

Possibly best reply ever to a post. Straight from the horse's mouth.

[Rajais Mitten]

Yes, great idea our offense/defense for once really doesn't have any holes so lets ruin that to somewhat fill up one hole and create others.

[GD]

Should of just read this so you didn't have to waste all that time typing that.

 

So much sass for someone who doesn't have a grasp of the English language.

[burlingtonbandit]

So much sass for someone who doesn't have a grasp of the English language.

 

looks like mr. vocabulary has made an appearance.

[GD]

looks like mr. vocabulary has made an appearance.

 

G'day, Mr. Dumn.

[Jimcanuck]

Tulo is one of those most likely to be traded, like it or not.

 

Regardless of what LaCava says. The Angels offer Trout for Tulo you make that trade even if you create a hole.

[GD]

Tulo is one of those most likely to be traded, like it or not.

 

Regardless of what LaCava says. The Angels offer Trout for Tulo you make that trade even if you create a hole.

 

Did this really need to be pointed out? That's clearly outside the bounds of what LaCava intended.

[Jimcanuck]

Did this really need to be pointed out? That's clearly outside the bounds of what LaCava intended.

 

It does. Need to soften the blow for those with a Tulo mancrush.

[Krylian]

Tulo isn't going anywhere

[BlueBirdBro]

#OffseasonThreads

[Spanky99]

Tulo is one of those most likely to be traded, like it or not.

 

Regardless of what LaCava says. The Angels offer Trout for Tulo you make that trade even if you create a hole.

 

lol

[Slade]

Everyone of value has a no trade clause anyways.

[Dr. Dinger]

Jesus f***ing Christ... TEN AND FIVE RIGHTS.

[Atothe]

Just came to say Jim has gone bonkers

[Stangstag]

How did I know you were gonna say Tulo before even clicking on the thread?

 

Jesus, so many people here don't understand how good Tulo can be with the bat. This js like the Edwin situation all over again. Trade the slumping bat right?

 

Anyways, IMO Tulo/Donaldson/Martin are the least likely to be traded, only for the fact that they all provide defensive value in addition to their bats.

[Caper]

What about trading for Votto and just forget about pitching? I bet it would take little to get Votto considering the ugly contract... But man it would be a fun 2016.

[fatcowxlive]

Jesus f***ing Christ... TEN AND FIVE RIGHTS.

 

^^^^^^^^^^

 

Bautista and EE aren't moving

[Jimcanuck]

How did I know you were gonna say Tulo before even clicking on the thread?

 

Jesus, so many people here don't understand how good Tulo can be with the bat. This js like the Edwin situation all over again. Trade the slumping bat right?

 

Anyways, IMO Tulo/Donaldson/Martin are the least likely to be traded, only for the fact that they all provide defensive value in addition to their bats.

 

Trading Tulo is a justifiable move.

 

- Steamer predicts 3.7 WAR from Tulo over 138 games. In his 8 season career, Tulo has eclipsed 138 games 3 times.

- Goins played 128 games in 2015. Despite this, the Jays won ALE.

- Goins over full season should return 1.5 WAR. The difference between Tulo's and Goins' salary is roughly equal to the projected WAR difference, using $9M/WAR

- A healthy Travis will make up most, if not all of Tulo's value at the plate.

- As currently structured, Jays should be AL offensive leader, and bottom 5 pitching.

- Moving the $20M Tulo is owed will return value and free up salary.

- Moving the $20M increases the money available for pitching to roughly $50M, allowing someone like Greinke (yes, pipe dream) to be signed.

- PR hit from trading Tulo manageable.

 

Slag away, or better yet, make a counterargument.

[Dr. Dinger]

He's an argument: Tulo has very little trade value right now. He is in decline and his salary basically makes him a zero value asset.

[Brownie19]

Trading Tulo is a justifiable move.

 

- Steamer predicts 3.7 WAR from Tulo over 138 games. In his 8 season career, Tulo has eclipsed 138 games 3 times.

- Goins played 128 games in 2015. Despite this, the Jays won ALE.

- Goins over full season should return 1.5 WAR. The difference between Tulo's and Goins' salary is roughly equal to the projected WAR difference, using $9M/WAR

- A healthy Travis will make up most, if not all of Tulo's value at the plate.

- As currently structured, Jays should be AL offensive leader, and bottom 5 pitching.

- Moving the $20M Tulo is owed will return value and free up salary.

- Moving the $20M increases the money available for pitching to roughly $50M, allowing someone like Greinke (yes, pipe dream) to be signed.

- PR hit from trading Tulo manageable.

 

Slag away, or better yet, make a counterargument.

 

Massive assumptions you make include:

 

- The thought that top FA pitchers actually want to sign and play in Toronto

- Travis will be healthy, avoid the sophomore slump and be well above average with the bat (despite having a wRC+ of only 126 in AA in 2014 as a 23 yr old.

- Goins can be an everyday player

- You can give up Tulo without taking on salary in return (otherwise you can't simply add $20M to the "pot" of money we have to magically attract all the best FA pitchers)....this is extremely unlikely...and well, flat out dumb. If anything, we'd want major league players back in return for Tulo.

 

Tulo posted a wRC+ of 141 and 170 in his past 2 seasons in Colorado. He was blindsided and adjusting last year. We want this guy on our team...

[Brenner]

Tulo has 6 yrs 109 mil remaining. Min $98 mil over 5 years. As a FA he'd likely get 6 yrs $140-150 mil. So the contract is fine and might have some value. But he is basically on a FA type deal which never have much surplus value. But it doesn't mean he can't be traded for good pieces, just have to be creative. You won get long-term controllable established MLB starters on good deals like Carrasco. But you could get guys that are near FA with 1 or 2 yrs of control, like Tyson Ross, plus prospects.

 

Something like this could work:

 

Tulo

Hutch

Revere

 

for

 

T. Ross

Cashner

Melvin Upton - need to balance the money somewhat

Prospects

[Stangstag]

Trading Tulo is a justifiable move.

 

- Steamer predicts 3.7 WAR from Tulo over 138 games. In his 8 season career, Tulo has eclipsed 138 games 3 times.

- Goins played 128 games in 2015. Despite this, the Jays won ALE.

- Goins over full season should return 1.5 WAR. The difference between Tulo's and Goins' salary is roughly equal to the projected WAR difference, using $9M/WAR

- A healthy Travis will make up most, if not all of Tulo's value at the plate.

- As currently structured, Jays should be AL offensive leader, and bottom 5 pitching.

- Moving the $20M Tulo is owed will return value and free up salary.

- Moving the $20M increases the money available for pitching to roughly $50M, allowing someone like Greinke (yes, pipe dream) to be signed.

- PR hit from trading Tulo manageable.

 

Slag away, or better yet, make a counterargument.

 

Some of those statements are just slightly outrageous

[Stangstag]

Tulo has 6 yrs 109 mil remaining. Min $98 mil over 5 years. As a FA he'd likely get 6 yrs $140-150 mil. So the contract is fine and might have some value. But he is basically on a FA type deal which never have much surplus value. But it doesn't mean he can't be traded for good pieces, just have to be creative. You won get long-term controllable established MLB starters on good deals like Carrasco. But you could get guys that are near FA with 1 or 2 yrs of control, like Tyson Ross, plus prospects.

 

Something like this could work:

 

Tulo

Hutch

Revere

 

for

 

T. Ross

Cashner

Melvin Upton

Prospects

 

Terrible deal for the Padres

[BTS]

I can get on board with trading Tulo, but Jesus Christ don't enter the season with Goins as your best/only shortstop.

[Jimcanuck]

Massive assumptions you make include:

 

- The thought that top FA pitchers actually want to sign and play in Toronto

- Travis will be healthy, avoid the sophomore slump and be well above average with the bat (despite having a wRC+ of only 126 in AA in 2014 as a 23 yr old.

- Goins can be an everyday player

- You can give up Tulo without taking on salary in return (otherwise you can't simply add $20M to the "pot" of money we have to magically attract all the best FA pitchers)....this is extremely unlikely...and well, flat out dumb. If anything, we'd want major league players back in return for Tulo.

 

Tulo posted a wRC+ of 141 and 170 in his past 2 seasons in Colorado. He was blindsided and adjusting last year. We want this guy on our team...

 

- jays no longer have a max 5 yr contract limit. it comes down to "show me the money!"

- probability that travis stays healthy is higher than it is for tulo

- BJMB consensus is goins returns ~1.5 WAR as everyday shortstop. an upgrade is certainly preferable but not critical

- Jays FO will need to negotiate with FA pitchers while working out a Tulo deal.... one doesn't happen without the other

 

as for your last point, if there are other teams out there in need of a shortstop and middle of the order bat that believe Tulo will bounce back (and more importantly, stay healthy), Jays could land a ML ready blue chip prospect with the potential to do like Travis 2015 (surely Tulo has more trade value than ratface post 2014?)

 

btw, while I believe trading Tulo is best for the franchise moving forward, the main purpose of these posts is to counteract the stupid "Tulo won't be traded, are you dumn?" posts

[Jimcanuck]

He's an argument: Tulo has very little trade value right now. He is in decline and his salary basically makes him a zero value asset.

 

Not sure. Even with a pessimistic projection, with $/WAR going up each year, there should be surplus value in that contract.

 

Surely Tulo has more value than Gose post 2014, who returned Travis?

[Krylian]

- jays no longer have a max 5 yr contract limit. it comes down to "show me the money!"

- probability that travis stays healthy is higher than it is for tulo

- BJMB consensus is goins returns ~1.5 WAR as everyday shortstop. an upgrade is certainly preferable but not critical

- Jays FO will need to negotiate with FA pitchers while working out a Tulo deal.... one doesn't happen without the other

 

as for your last point, if there are other teams out there in need of a shortstop and middle of the order bat that believe Tulo will bounce back (and more importantly, stay healthy), Jays could land a ML ready blue chip prospect with the potential to do like Travis 2015 (surely Tulo has more trade value than ratface post 2014?)

 

btw, while I believe trading Tulo is best for the franchise moving forward, the main purpose of these posts is to counteract the stupid "Tulo won't be traded, are you dumn?" posts

 

He won't be.

 

It might be the best thing to do...but I don't see it happening.