Long time lurker, first time posting.
We all know going into the 2016 season, the Toronto Blue Jays will not have to worry about scoring runs. The Blue Jays have scored almost 900 runs all season with the Yankees finishing a distant 2nd with 764. One glaring need coming into the season would be the state of the starting pitching.
David Price, Marco Estrada (Who was offered a qualifying offer, which he would likely reject) and Mark Buehrle are all likely gone. Thats 60% of the rotation not returning. Not to mention the struggles of Drew Hutchison all season, it can be argued that going into the season, Toronto will cast of 1-2 punch of Marcus Stroman and R.A. Dickey. Marcus Stroman is capable of amazing things, but you can’t expect him to carry the team all season. R.A. Dickey is R.A. Dickey, you can expect 200+ Innings and a Sub-4.00 ERA. But how about the rest of the rotation?
The Jays are hoping that if Estrada rejects the offer, they can still work out a deal with him, even though it means competing with other suitors. Estrada, seem to enjoy his success and the situation he created for himself in Toronto, so barring any major offers from other teams, the likelihood of him returning is pretty strong. There are a couple of intriguing free agents this off-season namely David Price and Ryan Zimmerman. Even if the Jays sign one of the big players this off-season they still need to fill out the rest of the rotation. Trading away one of their big bats, is simply taking a position of strength and moving it to fill a position of weakness.
The biggest trade assets the Jays have are Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion and Tulowitzki. Who are your 2-5 hitters. Donaldson is not going anywhere. He’s controllable for the next 4 years at a very affordable contract. Both Bautista and Encarnacion are free agents after next season. Bautista, is the heart-and-soul of this franchise for the pass 5 years and trading him (and his batflip) away will turn a lot of fans off. Not to mention, Bautista is a 10-and-5 player. Which means he has over 10 years of MLB service and 5 years with the same team. This qualifies him to have a no-trade clause. So if the Jays wanted him traded, Bautista has to agree to it. Encarnacion is in the same boat, he’s one of the important pieces in the Jays offense, but he too is a 10-and-5 player and trading him will require his authority. Both Bautista and Encarnacion seem to embrace the situation they have in Toronto and I highly doubt they will agree to any trade especially in their late stages of their career, since they both want to win now.
That leaves us with Troy Tulowitzki. Trading Troy Tulowitzki might be the right move for the Blue Jays. Troy Tulowitzki also has a no-trade clause. Once he was dealt to Toronto, Tulowitzki is granted a $2-million assignment bonus and his contract converts to a full no-trade clause from here on out. However, he was completely blind-sided by the trade from Colorado and it can be argued that he wasn’t happy being here and will welcome a trade back south of the border. Let’s assume he welcomes a trade. What can the Jays get for him? Since the farm system is depleted, I think a young controllable young starting pitcher that can slot into the number 3 position and a couple of prospects would do it. This would address a few issues.
First, it will free up $20 million (less the players coming back), which can be used to grab one of the big-arm free agents. Secondly, help rebuild the farm system, which was emptied to give the Jays the run they had this past season. Thirdly, Tulowitzki isn’t exactly Ironman. He’s missed a significant amount of time every year and playing on turf isn’t improving that odd. And finally,it makes the decision to start Goins and Travis in the middle of the infield going forward a little more convincing. Although Tulowitzki is an above average defender, it can be argued that moving Goins to shortstop improves Toronto defensively. Offensively of course the Blue Jays would lose plenty of power as he is likely the second best short-stop in the game (behind Carlos Correa), but offense shouldn’t be a problem because the Blue Jays were scoring runs in bunches before Tulowitski came here.
On the other hand, trading Tulowitski will put a lot of pressure on Devon Travis to produce. In a small sample size, he has shown plenty of reason to be optimistic. But, that's the problem, its a small sample size. Signing a guy like Ben Zobrist might be a top priority for the Jays going into the offseason if trading Tulowitski is in their thoughts. He can fill in at shortstop, second base and can also play the outfield if Toronto needs to give Bautista, Revere or Pillar a day off. Oh, and he’s been a Jays killer his whole career. The old adage of “If you can’t beat them join them” might bode will for the Blue Jays. Trading Tulowitski can also jeopardize the future of this team offensively after the 2016 season. If he’s traded and Bautista and Encarnacion leave (They are both free agents after 2016). Donaldson would be the lone power bat left from Mount Crushmore.
