League Transitions for Pitchers

[Grant77]

I've been getting a lot of flak for pointing out something exceedingly obvious. Pitchers that transition from the NL to the AL often struggle. Here are the numbers I found while investigating that assertion.

 

I included any pitchers who threw 100 innings in one league and did the same while starting in other league in the following season. The data was pulled from a sample of 394 pitchers between 2013 and 2015.

 

Pitchers transitioning from the NL to the AL:

 

Avg innings in NL: 191.58

Avg innings in Al: 177.83

 

Avg ERA in NL: 3.62

Avg ERA in AL: 4.12

_____________________________________

 

Pitchers transitioning from the AL to the NL:

 

Avg innings in AL: 194.76

Avg innings in NL: 182.2

 

Avg ERA in AL: 3.67

Avg ERA in NL: 3.56

____________________________________

 

Total AL ERA over sample: 4.07

Total NL ERA over sample: 3.88

____________________________________

 

The innings drop in the NL is to be expected in some ways, due to the pinch hitting. I'm unsure what the actual drop is, but I just included the numbers because I needed to compile them to get the ERA.

 

The important data is that the ERA when transitioning from the NL to the AL was roughly .31 points higher than would be expected. There's little doubt that this number would be even higher for pitchers who didn't have previous experience in the AL (unlike Ervin Santana types), but I have neither the time nor the interest to pursue this any further. I simply wanted to find out if my logical assumption was correct or incorrect and this proves that it was correct. This doesn't prove whether or not guys like Mike Leake would succeed in the AL, but it's real data that is certainly worth considering.

Edited October 26, 2015 by Grant77

[Boxcar]

Average starter ERA during that time period in the AL: 4.07

[nextyear]

I would expect the transition to the AL to be somewhat more difficult since they don't get to face a pitcher once every 9 batters in the AL (at least for the first 5 to 6 innings until pinch-hitters are inserted).

[Boxcar]

I would expect the transition to the AL to be somewhat more difficult since they don't get to face a pitcher once every 9 batters in the AL (at least for the first 5 to 6 innings until pinch-hitters are inserted).

 

Yes, as usual though Grant is obfuscating his previous argument. I think anyone understands that facing the pitcher instead of a DH gives a boost to your ERA. Grant said "name one guy who spent his whole career in the NL, signed a multiyear deal with an AL team and it worked out." An average pitcher in the NL will be an average pitcher in the AL.

[Laika]

I don't understand what you're trying to prove.

 

Grant, in the other thread you seemed to be saying that teams don't like to trade for or give big contracts to pitchers that aren't "American League Tested", as if front offices make some sort of categorical decision about pitcher acquisition based on which leagues they've pitched in.

 

Now you are just showing that the run environment is different between the two leagues.

 

These are completely different things and nobody with six brain cells would argue with the latter.

[Grant77]

I would expect the transition to the AL to be somewhat more difficult since they don't get to face a pitcher once every 9 batters in the AL (at least for the first 5 to 6 innings until pinch-hitters are inserted).

 

That is accounted for in the data. There's still a statistically significant gap.

[Grant77]

I don't understand what you're trying to prove.

 

Grant, in the other thread you seemed to be saying that teams don't like to trade for or give big contracts to pitchers that aren't "American League Tested", as if front offices make some sort of categorical decision about pitcher acquisition based on which leagues they've pitched in.

 

Now you are just showing that the run environment is different between the two leagues.

 

These are completely different things and nobody with six brain cells would argue with the latter.

 

I was arguing that style of play is different and pitchers with certain skillsets are selected for in each league in order to succeed. Please take time to note that the ERA differential is a significantly larger than would be expected if there were no difference. Only a small portion of the gap is accounted for by the DH.

 

As per usual, I lay the facts in front of you and instead of acknowledging it, you dance around the point and try to be funny.

[Boxcar]

Please take time to note that the ERA differential is a significantly larger than would be expected if there were no difference.

 

As per usual, I lay the facts in front of you and instead of acknowledging it, you dance around the point and try to be funny.

 

.05?

 

Good lord, you're beyond help. As per usual.

[Dr. Dinger]

Well that didn't take long.

[Grant77]

.05?

 

Good lord, you're beyond help. As per usual.

 

0.31, actually.

[Grant77]

Well that didn't take long.

 

Took me an hour, but I don't like to be called wrong and I'll prove it when needed.

[Dr. Dinger]

I meant it didn't take long for a vintage Grant argument to break out with the old-timers.

[BTS]

Poor Grant. It's been a rocky reintegration.

[Grant77]

I meant it didn't take long for a vintage Grant argument to break out with the old-timers.

 

There's nothing to argue other than semantics unless they want to question the data itself. Pitchers that transition from the NL to the AL experience a higher than expected rise in ERA that is not fully explained by the designated hitter rule. I consider that when deciding whether we should sign a pitcher like Mike Leake and I fully believe that AA does too. The last thing we need is a Ricky Nolasco situation on our hands.

 

That being said, I'll leave the usual clowns to ignore the facts and make what jokes they will. I find it vaguely entertaining.

[Grant77]

Poor Grant. It's been a rocky reintegration.

 

Don't feel bad for me, lol. Being correct lets me sleep at night. Insults on the internet don't mean anything, we have been at it for many years.

[Boxcar]

Don't feel bad for me, lol. Being correct lets me sleep at night. Insults on the internet don't mean anything, we have been at it for many years.

 

Your sample is fairly small, does not account for defense, park factors, etc. All you've proven is that the run environment is different in each league. Surpriiiise

[Laika]

There's nothing to argue other than semantics unless they want to question the data itself. Pitchers that transition from the NL to the AL experience a higher than expected rise in ERA that is not fully explained by the designated hitter rule. I consider that when deciding whether we should sign a pitcher like Mike Leake and I fully believe that AA does too. The last thing we need is a Ricky Nolasco situation on our hands.

 

That being said, I'll leave the usual clowns to ignore the facts and make what jokes they will. I find it vaguely entertaining.

 

Who was ignoring any facts?

 

The expected rise in ERA for pitchers moving from the NL to the AL is around 0.40 runs. This has been well known and documented for years and years. Everybody knows it. I even mentioned it in the other thread re: Leake's expected FIP. You could have just googled it...

 

Again, I'm still not sure what you're trying to prove.

 

The deviations in your ERA differences (from 0.40), for both directions of movement, are probably due to a small sample size. There wouldn't be a huge sample of pitchers that went 100+ IP in one league and then 100+ IP in the other league within a three year sample.

Edited October 26, 2015 by Laika

[Grant77]

Your sample is fairly small, does not account for defense, park factors, etc. All you've proven is that the run environment is different in each league. Surpriiiise

 

There is no inherent bias towards any type of park or defense in the sample of pitchers. That kind of thing averages out with dozens of pitchers.

[Grant77]

Who was ignoring any facts?

 

The expected rise in ERA for pitchers moving from the NL to the AL is around 0.40 runs. This has been well known and documented for years and years. Everybody knows it. I even mentioned it in the other thread re: Leake's expected FIP. You could have just googled it...

 

Again, I'm still not sure what you're trying to prove.

 

The deviations in your ERA differences, for both directions of movement, are probably due to a small sample size. There wouldn't be a huge sample of pitchers that went 100+ IP in one league and then 100+ IP in the other league within a three year sample.

 

I (and others, if you are correct) have proven that pitchers moving from the NL to the AL experience an ERA jump that is disproportionate to the amount that would be expected from the designated hitter rule.

[GeorgiaPeach]

As per usual, I lay the facts in front of you and instead of acknowledging it, you dance around the point and try to be funny.

 

Would you agree that Ted Williams is a better hitter than any Blue Jay?

 

Just relying on facts.

[Grant77]

Would you agree that Ted Williams is a better hitter than any Blue Jay?

 

Just relying on facts.

 

I'd agree that he's a top 3 hitter all-time and that no Blue Jays are even in the top 50 (Frank Thomas notwithstanding).

[Laika]

I (and others, if you are correct) have proven that pitchers moving from the NL to the AL experience an ERA jump that is disproportionate to the amount that would be expected from the designated hitter rule.

 

Cool?

 

I thought the talent gap between the AL and NL was common knowledge, but apparently not.

 

Thanks for teaching nobody anything tonight, Grant. Sleep soundly!

[Grant77]

Cool?

 

I thought the talent gap between the AL and NL was common knowledge, but apparently not.

 

Thanks for teaching nobody anything tonight, Grant. Sleep soundly!

 

You were the only one who showed any knowledge of that fact in the other thread. Boxcar, for example, insisted that there was no difference.

[Laika]

You were the only one who showed any knowledge of that fact in the other thread. Boxcar, for example, insisted that there was no difference.

 

Again, you're conflating arguments.

 

In the other thread you very much seemed to be arguing something akin to the fact that a pitcher's WAR should be expected to plummet when they switched leagues.

[Grant77]

Again, you're conflating arguments.

 

In the other thread you very much seemed to be arguing something akin to the fact that a pitcher's WAR should be expected to plummet when they switched leagues.

 

I didn't even mention the phrase 'WAR' in the entire thread. The entire thing was about Mike Leake and how I expected his ERA to end up in the 4.5 range if he pitched here, which you more or less agreed with, but everyone else took exception to. I made note of pitchers with similar backgrounds that had struggled and still got arguments, so I made this thread and (re)proved the point statistically.

 

Only 7% of communication is verbal/written, so people will see what they want to see, but my statement that Mike Leake would see a significantly increased ERA here is what kicked it all off and got a lot of people's panties in a knot.

[Boxcar]

You were the only one who showed any knowledge of that fact in the other thread. Boxcar, for example, insisted that there was no difference.

 

Can't see reason AND can't read! What an unfortunate combination.

[Grant77]

After questioning Leake's effectiveness in the AL.

 

Oh, do they play a different game in the NL?

 

Lol, dumbass doesn't even know what he typed.

[Boxcar]

After questioning Leake's effectiveness in the AL.

 

 

 

Lol, dumbass doesn't even know what he typed.

 

Yes, clearly in that phrase I stated that there is no difference in run environment, and that all pitchers will put up identical ERA numbers after changing leagues.

 

Also, that comment was in response to this:

I shudder at the thought of Leake tossing up sub 90 fastballs and not striking anyone out in the American League.

 

It was tongue in cheek. Since you appear to be too stupid to discern obvious sarcasm, I'll be sure to dumb things down for you in the future.

 

E: oops, silly me. Breaking my own rules already. My first sentence was not a phrase a normal person takes at face value due to the obvious indications of sarcasm.

[BTS]

This thread is the rare argument between people who believe exactly the same thing.

[Boxcar]

This thread is the rare argument between people who believe exactly the same thing.

 

Does anyone know what type of mental disorder Grant has? I've never seen anyone like this before.