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Posted
Bo hits. That's just what he does. Average up to .390 so far in A+

 

Guerrero struggling a bit stats wise, but still walking about as much as striking out. Good to see

Posted
Guerrero struggling a bit stats wise, but still walking about as much as striking out. Good to see

 

Vlad is so young that it really doesn't matter to me if he gets hits as long as the peripherals are still immaculate.

Posted
Guerrero struggling a bit stats wise, but still walking about as much as striking out. Good to see

 

probably some bad luck in there, i'm sure he's hitting the ball hard

Jays Centre Contributor
Posted
Guerrero struggling a bit stats wise, but still walking about as much as striking out. Good to see

 

He has hit quite a few line drives that were outs and Bo has had quite a few infield singles and bloops...that doesn't account for the whole difference but it is some

Posted
I was reading an Arden Zelling article about Vladdy Jr today. The praise people had for him was ridiculous. They believe he can hit in the majors tight now. Not the front office but a lot of other people. I'm expecting to see Vladdy next year. Especially he continues to drop weight
Posted (edited)
He has hit quite a few line drives that were outs and Bo has had quite a few infield singles and bloops...that doesn't account for the whole difference but it is some

 

Yeah, like I said, as long as his walks and Ks are in line. .. it's all good.

Edited by John_Havok
Verified Member
Posted
Lourdes will save us! ;)

 

He might. Lourdes went 2/4 with a homer tonight with a stolen base to boot. He's finally heating up after missing a year.

 

I hope they give him a look in September. He's already on the 40-man.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Chris Mitchell seems like a real gem. I can't say I know if KATOH/KATOH+ does a good job at projecting future MLB'ers, but he seems very open to getting feedback and suggestions on how to improve his model and he explains with valid arguments why some guys may or may not appear out of place.

 

He comes across as a really likable guy. It's a must to read the comments for his KATOH articles.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
He might. Lourdes went 2/4 with a homer tonight with a stolen base to boot. He's finally heating up after missing a year.

 

I hope they give him a look in September. He's already on the 40-man.

 

He would have to have a red hot August for that to happen.

Posted
If anyone has BP they just put up a series review of Vlad from earlier thus month when he was called up to Dunedin.

 

[h=1]Prospectus Feature[/h][h=2]A Series Look: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.[/h]by Steve Givarz

Printer-friendly button_print.gifContact Author button_email.gif

 

Unlike Bo Bichette, I don’t have a personal history with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. I was unable to see him during Extended Spring Training in 2016, and instead of an assignment to the Gulf Coast League; he was sent to the Appalachian League. Our first mention of him was back in 2015 by Christopher Crawford, but since then we have not had many in-person looks before this season. One of them was by Emmett Rosenbaum in a Ten Pack, as well as various updates from myself, Mark Anderson, and Wilson Karaman in the Minor League Ten Pack. Then we ranked him No. 13 in the Midseason Top 50.

Game 1 v. Tampa 7/12

First AB: Erik Swanson, RHP

Guerrero takes a first pitch fastball from Swanson at 95 for a called strike. I already notice that he isn’t nearly as aggressive a hitter as Bichette. He likes to get comfortable with his at-bats and see what a pitcher has to offer instead of swinging out of his shoes at the first pitch. The next pitch is a fastball that he fouls off. He seems comfortable now, but his swings are also quite violent. Swanson brings a third straight fastball, and Guerrero fouls it off again. It seems like Guerrero can use the whole field and was just working with what the pitcher was giving him, which was high heat. On 0-2 again, Swanson tries a slider at 86: no luck, and called a ball. On 1-2, Swanson fires a 96 mph fastball. Guerrero swings and misses. Our hero is 0-1 in High-A.

Second AB: Erik Swanson, RHP

Like he did in his first at-bat, Guerrero takes a first called strike. I’ve watched enough low-level baseball to learn that most of the time, you could just stand there and you will eventually find yourself at first base. Once you get to High-A, that strategy ceases to work and you have to start thinking like a pitcher. “How will they attack me? What are they most comfortable with? When do they fall into patterns? Where are they likely to throw certain pitches? Why are they throwing this pitch?” On 0-1, Guerrero sees another fastball up in the zone and he pops it up for a weak out to the second basemen. Our hero is 0-2.

Third AB: Andrew Schwaab, RHP

Schwaab is a different look for Guerrero. Unlike Swanson, who had a big fastball with a high slot, Schwaab is a side-armer who throws a lot of sliders and relies more on deception and location. Like he has done before, Guerrero takes the first pitch, this time a slider at 83 for a called strike. The next offering is another slider; swing and miss. This is probably the best pitch I have seen Schwaab throw all year—it flashed above-average with late depth, fooling Guerrero. On 0-2, Schwaab goes to another slider, and Guerrero takes it for strike three. I am sure Guerrero was expecting a slider, but that it would be one out of the zone for a chase pitch, not one that would paint the corner. Through three at-bats, I have not seen him put one ball in play.

Fourth AB: Jose Pena, RHP

Like Schwaab, Pena is here to fill a role. Mainly his role is to eat innings and provide depth to the bullpen. Also like Schwaab, he is a side-armer. Pena is fairly generic; he is 88-89 with sink, and a true sweeping slider at 75-78. He has had success this year, and has even made a brief cameo in Double-A, which is a far cry from rookie ball, which was where he had spent the majority of the past 6 seasons.

Guerrero looks antsy in the on-deck circle, he looks ready to attack whatever is thrown at him. In this case, it is a first pitch slider, 75, and it results in another pop up, a weak popup to first. The only ball he will put in play today barely traveled 90 feet.

Game 2 v. Tampa 7/13

First AB: Brian Keller, RHP

It is a new day. I am impressed by Guerrero’s batting practice session; he hit hard line drives with ease. He has amazingly quick wrists, and showed power to all fields. I am excited.

Like the day before, Guerrero takes the first pitch fastball from Keller for a called strike. The next pitch is a slider at 86 for a ball. Guerrero recognized the pitch early and laid off. Keller tends to get ahead early with fastball, but will throw everything else until he needs to go back to the fastball. The next pitch is another slider and another ball. Guerrero is hunting a fastball until he needs to adjust. On 2-1, he gets his fastball (91), and swings through it. The pitch got away from Keller and was up in the zone, not where he wanted it, but got a good result. With the count 2-2, Keller again goes for the fastball up, but this time Guerrero doesn’t miss; smacking a hard line-drive up the middle. Welcome to the FSL hit club Mr. Guerrero.

Second AB: Brian Keller, RHP

Like he did with Bichette when they squared off, Keller starts Guerrero off with a curve for a ball. On 1-0, Keller goes to the fastball and Guerrero hits the ball hard in the air to center field. Jeff Hendrix tracks the ball down, making a spectacular diving catch to record the out. As Guerrero sees the catch in between first and second, he tips his helmet and jogs back to the dugout.

Third AB: Brian Keller, RHP

Keller goes with a first pitch slider, Guerrero, recognizing it in the zone puts a hard swing on it, but again, hits it to where Jeff Hendrix plays for another hard out.

Fourth AB: Jordan Foley, RHP

I have a long history with Foley. Back when he was an amateur at Central Michigan one of very my first reports was on Foley. When we squared up against him, there were about 20+ scouts to see him matchup with our Friday starter, Seth Streich (who went in the sixth round in 2012). Foley is a power reliever now, though. His fastball the past two years has been between 91-94, but lacked movement and tended to be left up. Earlier in his career he had a curve which was a below-average offering, but he has traded that in for a harder slider at 84-86 that flashed average, with short, hard action, but is inconsistent. At 24, he projects as depth arm.

Guerrero is Foley’s first batter of the outing, but like other relievers down here, he doesn’t start off with fastballs. Instead he starts with a pair of 85 mph sliders, both of which are called balls, and neither of which Guerrero is looking to do anything with. On 2-0, Foley comes in with a fastball at 94 for a called strike. Guerrero is more than happy to wait out Foley and look for a specific pitch in a specific spot. The next pitch is another fastball for another called strike. It looked to be low but the umpire gives it to Foley. On 2-2, Foley goes back to the slider. Guerrero is in protect mode, and is able to foul it off and work to see another pitch. I am impressed by his ability to work pitchers and counts at such a young age. Normally, you see young latin players look to drive everything they can. While Guerrero can do that with the best of them, he is a patient, disciplined hitter who waits out mistakes. The next pitch is a fastball up and out of the zone, but Guerrero works with it for a line-drive single to right.

Game 3 v. Tampa 7/14

First AB: Taylor Widener, RHP

Like he has done so often, Guerrero takes the first offering from Widener, a fastball for a ball. The next pitch is a fastball off the plate but is a called strike, and it earns chirps from the Dunedin dugout. On 1-1, another 94 mph fastball for a called strike. This seemed like an opportunity for Guerrero to do some damage, but it wasn’t his pitch so he let it go. On 1-2, all Widener has thrown him are fastballs. Maybe he is thinking off-speed, but instead gets another fastball and he watches it go by for strike three. Guerrero isn’t happy with himself as he unloads his gear at home plate, and slowly walks to take his position.

Second AB: Taylor Widener, RHP

Just like before, Guerrero is taking the first pitch, this time for a called strike. Patience is a virtue, but Guerrero is going to need to be careful he doesn’t fall into the “passive” trap that has gotten to other prospects (coughLarsAndersoncough). He’s got thunder in his bat and unleashing it early in counts wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing. On 0-1, Guerrero takes a 93 mph fastball for a ball. Widener goes to a changeup at 83 for another ball. The change is Widener’s least effective offering but he has been working it effectively in this game with a lefty-heavy lineup. The count is 2-1, and Guerrero receives a fastball that he takes for a strike to even the count. Again, it might not be his pitch: it was a well-located pitch inside, and you can give credit to the pitcher there. Widener loads up on another fastball, 94, low and away, and Guerrero works with it rapping a ground ball through the right side for a hit.

Third AB: Caleb Frare, LHP

Frare throws hard, but often lacks control. In this scenario passivity has its place, especially when this is Frare’s first batter and maybe Guerrero wants to settle in. Fastball, ball, 93. The next pitch is another fastball, down and in, and Guerrero fights it off for a line-drive single to left.

Fourth AB: Stephen Tarpley, LHP

Get this, Guerrero takes the first pitch. This time it’s a strike. On 0-1, Tarpley goes to a change at 86, but Guerrero recognizes it early as a low pitch and takes it. On 1-1, Tarpley goes to it again but does a better job of locating it. There’s just enough separation from his fastball to get Guerrero to get in front of it, resulting in a weak groundout to short. He doesn’t run it out, 4.68 to first.

Fifth AB: Andrew Schwaab, RHP

He’s already seen Schwaab this series, but Guerrero is still first-pitch-taking, and it puts him in a hole 0-1. The next pitch is a slider in the dirt, no chance of a swing. On 1-1, Schwaab doubles up on a slider, dotting the outside corner, and he garners swing and miss. Schwaab is surprising me the more and more I watch him. On 1-2, Schwaab triples it up with the slider, but it doesn’t break the same way the prior pitch did, and is merely a ball in the dirt. The next pitch is a fastball at 92 off the plate and Guerrero fouls it off. He was late on the pitch, maybe thinking another slider was coming. In a 2-2 count, Guerrero receives a 90 mph fastball, low, ball. Now in a full count, Schwaab works quickly to try and disrupt Guerrero’s timing. Instead he disrupts himself and throws ball four, as Guerrero gladly strolls down to first.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

[TABLE=class: info, width: 375]

[TR]

[TD]http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/images/headshot_107184.jpg[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=colspan: 2]Born: 03/16/1999 (Age: 18)[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Bats: Right[/TD]

[TD]Throws: Right[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Height: 6' 1"[/TD]

[TD]Weight: 200[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=colspan: 2]Primary Position: 3B[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=colspan: 2]Secondary Position:[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

[TABLE=class: mechanics, width: 62%]

[TR=class: header]

[TD]Physical/Health[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Physically large, already muscular at current age, worried somewhat about how body will look in a few years with added development.[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

[TABLE=class: evaluator, width: 36%]

[TR]

[TD=class: header]Evaluator[/TD]

[TD]Steve Givarz[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: header]Report Date[/TD]

[TD]07/19/2017[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: header]Dates Seen[/TD]

[TD]07/12-07/14[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: header]Affiliate[/TD]

[TD]Dunedin Blue Jays (High A, Blue Jays)[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

[TABLE=class: repertoire, width: 100%]

[TR=class: header]

[TD=align: center]MLB ETA[/TD]

[TD=align: center]Risk Factor[/TD]

[TD=align: center]OFP[/TD]

[TD=align: center]Realistic Role[/TD]

[TD=align: center]Video[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2019[/TD]

[TD]Moderate[/TD]

[TD]60[/TD]

[TD]Role 5; Quality Regular[/TD]

[TD]No[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

[TABLE=class: overall, width: 100%]

[TR=class: header]

[TD]Makeup[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Hard worker during pre-game, takes his routine seriously.

[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

[TABLE=class: tool, width: 100%]

[TR=class: header]

[TD]Tool[/TD]

[TD=class: mid1, align: center]Future Grade[/TD]

[TD]Report[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Hit[/TD]

[TD=class: mid, align: center]60[/TD]

[TD]Hits from an even, balanced stance, loads with a leg lift, features premium bat speed and incredible wrists, recognizes pitches early, but will often take most pitches in early counts. Uses the whole field and works with what pitchers are throwing at him. Hands work well and can catch up to velocity and premium off-speed pitches. Future plus hitter.[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Power[/TD]

[TD=class: mid, align: center]60[/TD]

[TD]Already features plus-plus raw power, which is rare at such a young age, could be 80 raw by the time he fully matures. Has incredible strength and wrists, can take the ball out from LF-CF, will only get stronger. Doesn't play much over the fence now because of age, but could hit 30+ HRs at full.[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Baserunning/Speed[/TD]

[TD=class: mid, align: center]40[/TD]

[TD]Below-average runner, 4.39 is best time. Will likely lose a step or more as he matures and ages.[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Glove[/TD]

[TD=class: mid, align: center]50[/TD]

[TD]Mobility is limited at third, first-step quickness is lacking, but when he is on his feet he moves well and can play the ball as needed. He doesn't charge well and lacks accuracy on throws from uncomfortable spots. Could see trying the outfield before moving to first. Still project a move to first though.[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Arm[/TD]

[TD=class: mid, align: center]55[/TD]

[TD]Above-average arm strength, has good line and carry on throws. Can play on the left side, and in the outfield if needed.[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

[TABLE=class: overall, width: 100%]

[TR=class: header]

[TD]Overall[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Featuring premium power, advanced feel to hit, and good arm strength, the only question with Guerrero is where he is going to play. He could improve himself to be a fringe-average 3B, but could be more playable in either an OF corner or 1B. Do have to watch weight somewhat as he ages but shouldn't be a major concern. See as a quality regular at 1B/COF.

[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]


Steve Givarz is an author of Baseball Prospectus.

Click here to see Steve's other articles. You can contact Steve by clicking here

Verified Member
Posted
He would have to have a red hot August for that to happen.

 

He seems to be heating up so hopefully that's the case. I'd rather give him a look than parading Barney/Goins out there everyday at 2nd.

 

Chris Rowley today: 7.2IP 3ER 5H 1BB 3K. I believe all 3 runs also came in 1 home run.

Posted
How does Lourdes contract work? Does he have options or once he comes up he is here to stay?

 

He's controlled, same as any spect, there's options.

Posted

Bo 2-3 and Vlad 1-2 in a game where the team had four hits.

Bo now hitting .400 in Dunedin and .447 in his last ten games. Unreal.

Posted
Bo 2-3 and Vlad 1-2 in a game where the team had four hits.

Bo now hitting .400 in Dunedin and .447 in his last ten games. Unreal.

 

He keeps it up, we will see him in TO next season.

Posted
I'm surprised you guys haven't been asking for the midseason BA top 10 for the Jays. I'll post it in a few mins

 

Can you post the BA mid season top 10 for the Jays? Thanks in advance!

Posted

After back-to-back American League Championship Series appearances, the Blue Jays haven’t been able to repeat the magic of the last two seasons. A 6-17 start put Toronto in the hole, and while it has played better than .500 ball since then, it still entered the All-Star break in last place in AL East.

 

Blue Jays Midseason Top 10

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B

2. Bo Bichette, SS

3. Anthony Alford, OF

4. Lourdes Gurriel, SS

5. Max Pentecost, C/1B

6. Conner Greene, RHP

7. Justin Maese, RHP

8. Sean Reid-Foley, RHP

9. T.J. Zeuch, RHP

10. Logan Warmoth, SS

 

The struggle is real in the Jays’ lineup, where Jose Bautista has declined with age, and the departure of Edwin Encarnacion has cost Toronto power, presence and swagger. While Justin Smoak has made up for it a bit with a career-best season, the Jays have gotten little production from their outfield, DH or even up the middle, where Troy Tulowitzki’s days as a star appear over.

 

The Jays’ brightest spot has been Marcus Stroman’s continued emergence as an ace, but three disabled list trips by Aaron Sanchez and poor seasons from Marco Estrada and Francisco Liriano have led to an inconsistent rotation. The bullpen, other than young closer Roberto Osuna, has been a consistent source of problems.

 

The Jays don’t have easy answers, but they do have a farm system that has taken a significant step forward this year, even as some prospects at higher levels step back. The future left side of the infield has burst on the scene in its first year of full-season ball, with third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and shortstop Bo Bichette looking like future stars.

 

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B

High Class A Dunedin

Age: 18

 

Guerrero grew up with hype thanks to his name and Hall of Fame-caliber father. The first time Jays officials saw him, one remembers, there were 40 scouts and observers on hand to watch the 14-year-old take batting practice. Guerrero has improved his thick body since then, gained man strength, improved significantly on the defensive side and continued to develop an impact bat. His fast hands mean he can catch up to any fastball, and he controls the strike zone exceptionally well for a teenager. Guerrero has work to do defensively, but some scouts see him being playable and a future fringe-average defender at third.

 

 

2. Bo Bichette, SS

High Class A Dunedin

Age: 19

 

Bichette dropped into the second round of the 2016 draft and has used that fall to fuel his pro career. He plays with a chip on his shoulder and has the tools to make teams pay for passing on him. Bichette put up a historic .384/.448/.623 line at low Class A Lansing to earn a promotion, and club officials have been impressed with his instincts, feel, and work ethic to stay at shortstop.

 

 

3. Anthony Alford, OF

Disabled list

Age: 22

 

Dogged by injuries in 2016, Alford came into the year healthy and got off to a strong start in Double-A, hitting .356 in April. He earned his first big league promotion and got his first hit May 23, but he broke the hamate bone in his left wrist and missed six weeks. Scouts still see plus speed, outfield range and solid power to go with a sound hitting approach, but he needs to stay healthy.

 

 

4. Lourdes Gurriel, SS

Double-A New Hampshire

Age: 23

 

Gurriel impressed big league manager John Gibbons in spring training with his athleticism and offensive potential, then injured both his thumb and his hamstring. After opening the season on the disabled list, Gurriel went 1-for-2 in his U.S. debut before he injured the same hamstring again and missed two more months. He has played only 22 games and is still getting in rhythm at Double-A.

 

 

5. Max Pentecost, C/1B

High Class A Dunedin

Age: 24

 

Pentecost had multiple shoulder surgeries and didn’t catch as a pro the last two years. But the 2014 first-round pick caught 14 games in the first half and caught well, according to scouts, even flashing above-average arm strength. If he can handle the rigors and grind of catching more full-time he has standout potential, with above-average hitting ability and power.

 

 

6. Conner Greene, RHP

Double-A New Hampshire

Age: 22

 

Greene remains an enigma with one of the minors’ best arms and little ability to use it. His fastball is up to 102 mph with a 93-94 mph two-seamer, but he doesn’t repeat his delivery enough to command his fastball and remains inconsistent with his secondary stuff. The result has been 64 strikeouts and 52 walks in 90.2 innings this season.

 

 

7. Justin Maese, RHP

Double-A New Hampshire

Age: 23

 

Maese has less velocity than Greene but offers excellent sink on his low-90s fastball and has improved his slider to give him a swing-and-miss pitch. The 20-year-old excited club officials with his frame and athleticism as an amateur, and he’s continued to gain size and strength as a pro, adding power to his two best pitches.

 

 

8. Sean Reid-Foley, RHP

Double-A New Hampshire

Age: 21

Reid-Foley has lost a bit of steam and again has pro scouts wondering if he’s a reliever rather than starter. His command and stuff have been inconsistent from start to start, but at his best he still pitches at 94 mph and reaches 97 with his fastball while flashing a plus curveball.

 

 

9. T.J. Zeuch, RHP

High Class A Dunedin

Age: 21

The 2016 first-rounder was young for his draft class and still needs to get stronger. That said, Zeuch has stayed healthy this season and flashed four average pitches. The Jays hope he adds velocity to his 89-93 mph fastball and gains consistency with his slider and curveball, but he’s off to a strong start.

 

 

10. Logan Warmoth, SS

Short-Season Vancouver

Age: 21

 

Warmoth has solid across-the-board tools as an offensive middle infielder with the arm strength and just enough range to remain at shortstop long term. They Jays liked that profile enough to draft him No. 22 overall from North Carolina. Warmoth has pull power, feel for the barrel and a polished approach to go with winning makeup that pushed him into the first round. He could move quickly as a pro.

 

 

RISING

 

• LHP Ryan Borucki has increased his fastball velocity, consistently touching 96-97 mph while pitching at 93-94. He also has feel for an above-average changeup. If his breaking ball gets to average, he’ll be a starter.

 

• C Danny Jansen finally stayed healthy and has shown an above-average contact-oriented hitting ability to go with average catch-and-throw skills while advancing to Double-A.

 

• RHP Jordan Romano, who pitched for Italy in the World Baseball Classic, has pitched well in a starting role for Dunedin and has a power arm that likely will fit in middle relief in the future.

 

 

FALLING

 

• Scouts who believed in 1B Rowdy Tellez before the season still believe, but the first baseman hasn’t produced at Triple-A Buffalo, though one scout called him the “king of hard outs.”

 

• SS Richard Urena has above-average tools at times but flashes them less consistently and may fit best as a utility infielder because of an inconsistent bat.

 

• RHP Jon Harris has fallen victim to the longball, and while he’s adjusted a bit of late, he has hit a major roadblock in Double-A.

 

• Scouts report OF Harold Ramirez no longer runs above-average, has regressed at the plate and is barely holding onto prospect status.

 

 

HURTING

 

• Maese hasn’t pitched since the end of May with what initially was reported as a slight shoulder injury and has been sighted at the club’s Dunedin, Fla., complex. The severity of the injury was unclear.

 

• C Reese McGuire wasn’t hitting prior to his injury, then had surgery in May to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee.

 

 

GRADUATING

 

• RHP Danny Barnes, as expected, has nailed down a bullpen spot and is one of the pen’s few bright spots.

 

Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-toronto-blue-jays-midseason-top-10-prospects/#FlYwWG6jkzBSvLHW.99

Posted
Not sure how they can justify Maese above SRF when Maese is in Lansing, not New Hampshire, and just 1 year younger, and hurt.
Posted
I'm surprised no one drafted him in the BORED prospect draft. And Tim Tebow got drafted...

 

You knew someone was gonna take Tebow in the draft.

Posted
DSJ is killing it in AAA, time to give him legit look in a lost season.

 

I'd hardly say he's killing it. I would much rather see him in the outfield than Carrera though.

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