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Posted
Do you actually think that's his talent level though? I wouldn't be comfortable going above 58% or so. His career is still 55.6%.

 

64%? I'd be shocked, but I think 60% is reasonable, yes. I'm looking at the action on his 2-seamer right now, and it's unbelievable. And his changeup is the same, except 8 MPH slower. He's front-dooring 2-seamers and backdooring cutters at will. He has all the right pitches to be an elite GB pitcher, so I'm buying into his 2015 GB rate to a large degree.

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Posted
Do you actually think that's his talent level though? I wouldn't be comfortable going above 58% or so. His career is still 55.6%.

58% to 60%. Aug and Sept last year with his sinker were 58.1 and 58.9.

Posted

In his career his only pitch with a lower than 51% GB rate is his 4 seamer at 46.7%. He's thrown his 4 seamer 6.7% of the time this year compared to 43.7% last year.

 

If you weight his career GB% by pitch type by his 2015 pitch selection, you get 59.55% GB%.

Posted
In his career his only pitch with a lower than 51% GB rate is his 4 seamer at 46.7%. He's thrown his 4 seamer 6.7% of the time this year compared to 43.7% last year.

 

Yeah, about half way through last season he realized how filthy his 2S was and starting throwing it a lot more, to the point where it's his primary FB now. This is probably the primary reason why FG says he's lost 1 MPH off his heater this year, it's almost all 2-seamers now. I'll trade 1-2 MPH for that nasty movement any day, though.

Posted
Marcus Stroman = right handed Dallas Keuchel?

 

See: my post on pg 2.

 

Keuchel 2014 - 6.57 K/9, 2.16 BB/9, 63.5% GB, 3.20 xFIP

Stroman 2015 - 6.00 K/9, 2.00 BB/9, 64.5% GB, 3.35 xFIP

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