Hutch and FIP

[magits]

Statheads please explain this one:

 

Why is Hutch so bad if his FIP is so good?

 

And how come pitchers can control how many home runs they give up but not how many doubles off the top of the wall they give up?

[GD]

I'm not going to rehash every DIPS vs ERA argument but today, Hutch has an awful FIP and this is how many runs you would expect him to give up. He's been bad today.

[gruber92]

I'm not going to rehash every DIPS vs ERA argument but today, Hutch has an awful FIP and this is how many runs you would expect him to give up. He's been bad today.

 

No fastball command spells disaster in the MLB.

 

That is all..

[closetjaysfan]

It is plain that he is our 5th starter. Id even consider Sanchez over him at this point.

[fatcowxlive]

I'm not going to rehash every DIPS vs ERA argument but today, Hutch has an awful FIP and this is how many runs you would expect him to give up. He's been bad today.

 

At least his BABIP is high and his BB/9 is still decent, maybe he can have a half decent run the rest of the way and bounce back next year

[metafour]

This is why teams still have heavy scouting departments and don't just employ a bunch of stat nerds. The game of baseball isn't played in a computer simulated environment. The problem is that FIP has zero ability to recognize the quality of a pitcher's stuff coming out of his hand; which is why "fielder independent pitching" is flawed. A guy who constantly hangs flat fastballs up over the heart of the plate will give up hits. The idea that a pitcher has zero control over balls put in play is erroneous: good pitches, even if they are hit, are far less likely to actually land as hits than poor pitches. FIP has no way of accounting for this.

 

Its comical that FIP actually rates Estrada and Hutchison as essentially equal this season. Actually watching the game paints a much different picture.

[GD]

This is why teams still have heavy scouting departments and don't just employ a bunch of stat nerds. The game of baseball isn't played in a computer simulated environment. The problem is that FIP has zero ability to recognize the quality of a pitcher's stuff coming out of his hand; which is why "fielder independent pitching" is flawed. A guy who constantly hangs flat fastballs up over the heart of the plate will give up hits.

 

In line with this, he will also not strike out any batters, and give up many home runs.

 

The idea that a pitcher has zero control over balls put in play is erroneous: good pitches, even if they are hit, are far less likely to actually land as hits than poor pitches.

 

Please provide proof for your assertion.

[Hipfan]

In line with this, he will also not strike out any batters, and give up many home runs.

 

 

 

Please provide proof for your assertion.

 

I guess Mark Buehrle would be example #1. He induces lots of contact, but it's not good contact.

[cusstown]

I admit, I have a hard time believing Hutch is 1.6 wins above a replacement-level pitcher right now, even with the high BABIP.

[nmrch]

He's horrible at holding runners on, that accounts for soem of the difference between his FIP and ERA. He also might be having problems pitching from the stretch and some of its is just good ole' bad luck.

[nmrch]

When I think of Hutch I think of morrow

 

Guy just unravels too much and is prone to injury

I would move him if he had any value

 

Morrow had years where he outperformed his peripherals, i don't know why people continue to cite him as evidence that DIPS doesn't work.

[gruber92]

In line with this, he will also not strike out any batters, and give up many home runs.

 

 

 

Please provide proof for your assertion.

 

C'mon bro, seriously?

[nmrch]

I guess Mark Buehrle would be example #1. He induces lots of contact, but it's not good contact.

completely wrong. Buerhle's defence and his historically unparalleled skill at controlling the running game accounts for the difference between FIP and ERA that he consistently puts up. Managing contact is a myth, Mark Buerhle is sure as hell not proof of that.

[metafour]

Please provide proof for your assertion.

 

Its common sense, but hard for statistics to quantify. What is more hittable? A ~92mph meatball hanging up in the zone (Hutchison) or a 96mph heavy sinking ball (Sanchez)? Even if Sanchez misses with his fastball down the middle of the plate, the pitch is harder to hit well. Well hit balls are more likely to actually result in hits, are they not?

 

FIP tries to categorize every ball put in play as equal when the reality of the situation is that good pitches are obviously going to produce worse contact, which will lead to more outs. It is why regardless of strikeouts, the best pitchers in the league always give up less hits than the worst pitchers, year in and year out. Hutchison actually strikes more guys out than Stroman did last season, yet he gives up way more hits and ultimately more runs. Its not because Stroman is "more lucky" on balls put in play, its because Huthison throws way more poor pitches due to his poor command, and those poor pitches get hit.

 

All it takes is ONE poor pitch in an at bat for a hit to occur. Hutchison strikes guys out because he generally has good stuff; but in the real world it doesn't matter if he throws two perfect pitches which result in swinging strikes, if he then follows that up with a horrendous pitch that is lined for a double. That is why FIP thinks that he's a "good" pitcher: it has no way of accounting for his inconsistency from pitch to pitch.

[Daniel Labude]

Statheads please explain this one:

 

Why is Hutch so bad if his FIP is so good?

 

And how come pitchers can control how many home runs they give up but not how many doubles off the top of the wall they give up?

 

Strikeouts...its why Sanchez's was worse even though he is a 10 times better pitcher.

[Boxcar]

Wow, metafour is an awful poster.

[Angrioter]

Hutchison is pitching with the score today.

[pickoff22]

Hutchison is a great example of the limitations of relying solely on advanced stats. He hasn't just been unlucky, he has pitched poorly and has been constantly missing his spots. If you're a fan who has watched his starts it's fairly easy to see that his location has been off and because of poor fastball command his secondary stuff hasn't been as effective. Advanced stats are great and obviously have revamped the analysis of the game, but they have their limitations. If you relied solely on them when it came to Hutchison you wouldn't realize the holes his game has had this year. Here's hoping he corrects them.

[magits]

Morrow had years where he outperformed his peripherals, i don't know why people continue to cite him as evidence that DIPS doesn't work.

 

*year

[magits]

There are obvious examples as to why FIP isn't perfect...Brandon Morrow and Drew Hutchison being two in recent memory.

 

Instead of blindly clinging to your faith that FIP is the be all and end all, maybe try and investigate why that is. There may be more to discover than you think.

[Jayday]

Hutchison is a great example of the limitations of relying solely on advanced stats. He hasn't just been unlucky, he has pitched poorly and has been constantly missing his spots. If you're a fan who has watched his starts it's fairly easy to see that his location has been off and because of poor fastball command his secondary stuff hasn't been as effective. Advanced stats are great and obviously have revamped the analysis of the game, but they have their limitations. If you relied solely on them when it came to Hutchison you wouldn't realize the holes his game has had this year. Here's hoping he corrects them.

 

Why believe your lying eyes? If it can't be proven on paper in a form of an equation then it's not true.

[BTS]

There are obvious examples as to why FIP isn't perfect...Brandon Morrow and Drew Hutchison being two in recent memory.

 

Instead of blindly clinging to your faith that FIP is the be all and end all, maybe try and investigate why that is. There may be more to discover than you think.

 

Brandon Morrow has a career ERA 0.24 higher than his xFIP. BABIP is league average. HR/FB is league average. So we're talking about a hair less than a quarter of a run per 9 innings over a relatively small sample (769 innings). That equates to approximately 20 runs over his career. Brandon Morrow, xFIP buster extraordinaire, has under-performed his xFIP by about 20 runs in his career. DRS has him as a very poor defensive pitcher at -7 runs. There are error bars on that, so we'll call it 5-10. That means that in 769 innings, the totality of Brandon Morrow's xFIP breaking-ness is somewhere in the vicinity of 10-15 runs.

 

What's more likely:

1) the many things outside his control (luck, sos, team defense) have combined to cause a minuscule 10-15-run discrepancy between his xFIP and FIP (that's one run every 60 innings or so)

2) his ERA is his true talent, and that 10-15 run discrepancy over almost 800 innings speaks volumes about his abilities as a pitcher.

 

Anyone with even the smallest shred of sensibility should default to the 'eh, there's probably nothing there' position. Because the discrepancy is small, and many, many factors are at play.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Brandon Morrow has a career ERA 0.24 higher than his xFIP. BABIP is league average. HR/FB is league average. So we're talking about a hair less than a quarter of a run per 9 innings over a relatively small sample (769 innings). That equates to approximately 20 runs over his career. Brandon Morrow, xFIP buster extraordinaire, has under-performed his xFIP by about 20 runs in his career. DRS has him as a very poor defensive pitcher at -7 runs. There are error bars on that, so we'll call it 5-10. That means that in 769 innings, the totality of Brandon Morrow's xFIP breaking-ness is somewhere in the vicinity of 10-15 runs.

 

What's more likely:

1) the many things outside his control (luck, sos, team defense) have combined to cause a minuscule 10-15-run discrepancy between his xFIP and FIP (that's one run every 60 innings or so)

2) his ERA is his true talent, and that 10-15 run discrepancy over almost 800 innings speaks volumes about his abilities as a pitcher.

 

Anyone with even the smallest shred of sensibility should default to the 'eh, there's probably nothing there' position. Because the discrepancy is small, and many, many factors are at play.

 

I get that it converges over a huge sample but let's be honest Hutchison has been missing his spots way too often this season and I think that's what most posters are saying here. You don't need to be a scout to realize this when you watch him pitch. I think he could use a bit of time in the pen or the minors to sort out his command problems and he might be able to come back strong.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if several young pitchers like Hutchison fail to put up ERA's in line with their peripherals. I could see him learning how to "pitch" when he gets more seasoning and getting better results.

[RealAccountant]

When I think of Hutch I think of morrow

 

Guy just unravels too much and is prone to injury

I would move him if he had any value

 

A healthy Morrow would be an amazing pitcher

 

Hutch is not prone to injury. A Morrow not prone to.injury would be a great SP for years and years

[RealAccountant]

Hutch is one of those pitchers that still.has a step.forward to take. When he takes it and has that big year people around the league will wonder where he came from.

 

This year though skip him as much as possible

[magits]

Brandon Morrow has a career ERA 0.24 higher than his xFIP. BABIP is league average. HR/FB is league average. So we're talking about a hair less than a quarter of a run per 9 innings over a relatively small sample (769 innings). That equates to approximately 20 runs over his career. Brandon Morrow, xFIP buster extraordinaire, has under-performed his xFIP by about 20 runs in his career. DRS has him as a very poor defensive pitcher at -7 runs. There are error bars on that, so we'll call it 5-10. That means that in 769 innings, the totality of Brandon Morrow's xFIP breaking-ness is somewhere in the vicinity of 10-15 runs.

 

What's more likely:

1) the many things outside his control (luck, sos, team defense) have combined to cause a minuscule 10-15-run discrepancy between his xFIP and FIP (that's one run every 60 innings)

2) his ERA is his true talent, and that 10-15 run discrepancy over almost 800 innings speaks volumes about his abilities as a pitcher.

 

Anyone with even the smallest shred of sensibility should default to the 'eh, there's probably nothing there' position. Because the discrepancy is small, and many, many factors are at play.

 

 

I think the main issue is that there are straw man arguments made by both sides. Stats people fall into the trap of thinking that people who criticizes FIP must also believe that ERA is better than FIP. It's not true. FIP is clearly a better stat than ERA IN GENERAL. But it's not an absolute - if a pitcher under-performs his FIP, was the pitcher just unlucky, or are there other factors at play? I remember when Morrow was having some awful seasons with the Jays, people started to dig into the numbers and found that with runners on base, Morrow's ERA skyrocketed, and so thoughts were formed about his inability to pitch effectively from the stretch, a factor accounted for by ERA but not by FIP, as after giving up 5 runs, Morrow would go on to strike out 6 and walk none over the next 3 innings before imploding again.

 

There is an interesting article here (http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/4/16/2933862/a-closer-look-at-pitchers-who-consistently-underperform-their) from 2012 about pitchers underperforming their FIP. It comes to a minor conclusion that perhaps pitchers do have SOME influence over their batted ball profiles, citing Johan Santana, who outperformed his FIP by 20 points over more than 2000 innings.

 

ERA isn't a better stat than FIP, but FIP isn't bulletproof. There are always exceptions - pitchers outperform and underperform their fip, but if all of these pitchers' innings are taken in the aggregate and averaged over many years, this nuance is lost.

 

Finally, I understand why advanced stats are defended so dearly, as they have been under attack since their inception. But that doesn't mean that SABRmetricians can rest on their laurels. There is more work to be done. Instead of defending FIP to the death, maybe try and understand WHY pitchers like Hutch have so badly underperformed. There could be a reason (luck may or may not be it), and if elucidated, it may help him pitch to his ability. In essence, FIP is a great gauge of ability (much better than ERA), which is why it predicts ERA better than ERA does, and why it is so frustrating to see Hutch struggle. But just because we have found a piece of the truth, it doesn't mean we have found the whole truth.

[saskjayfan]

Why believe your lying eyes? If it can't be proven on paper in a form of an equation then it's not true.

 

hutch gets a lot of strikeouts because he has a good slider, but his fastball doesn't have a lot of movement and on the days that he isn't locating and especially on days when he isn't locating and the velocity is down he gets crushed.

 

Hutch has a 22% career line drive rate (over 25% this year) and a 38.8% career ground ball rate. Sanchez has an 18% line drive rate and a 60% ground ball rate. I guess you could chalk that up to randomness, but I would suggest that when both are having trouble locating the fastball that the one that has more velocity and sinks is a lot tougher to square up than the one with less velocity and less movement. I would bet my left nut that Sanchez has a higher ground ball rate and lower line drive rate over the next 5 seasons over Hutch.

[BTS]

I think the main issue is that there are straw man arguments made by both sides. Stats people fall into the trap of thinking that people who criticizes FIP must also believe that ERA is better than FIP. It's not true. FIP is clearly a better stat than ERA IN GENERAL. But it's not an absolute - if a pitcher under-performs his FIP, was the pitcher just unlucky, or are there other factors at play? I remember when Morrow was having some awful seasons with the Jays, people started to dig into the numbers and found that with runners on base, Morrow's ERA skyrocketed, and so thoughts were formed about his inability to pitch effectively from the stretch, a factor accounted for by ERA but not by FIP, as after giving up 5 runs, Morrow would go on to strike out 6 and walk none over the next 3 innings before imploding again.

 

There is an interesting article here (http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/4/16/2933862/a-closer-look-at-pitchers-who-consistently-underperform-their) from 2012 about pitchers underperforming their FIP. It comes to a minor conclusion that perhaps pitchers do have SOME influence over their batted ball profiles, citing Johan Santana, who outperformed his FIP by 20 points over more than 2000 innings.

 

ERA isn't a better stat than FIP, but FIP isn't bulletproof. There are always exceptions - pitchers outperform and underperform their fip, but if all of these pitchers' innings are taken in the aggregate and averaged over many years, this nuance is lost.

 

Finally, I understand why advanced stats are defended so dearly, as they have been under attack since their inception. But that doesn't mean that SABRmetricians can rest on their laurels. There is more work to be done. Instead of defending FIP to the death, maybe try and understand WHY pitchers like Hutch have so badly underperformed. There could be a reason (luck may or may not be it), and if elucidated, it may help him pitch to his ability. In essence, FIP is a great gauge of ability (much better than ERA), which is why it predicts ERA better than ERA does, and why it is so frustrating to see Hutch struggle. But just because we have found a piece of the truth, it doesn't mean we have found the whole truth.

 

Obviously there are situations in which a pitcher's ERA doesn't match his DIPS and there' something to it. Buehrle's ERA was lower than his FIP, people looked into it, and found that he's an absolute elite defender and that makes up most of the difference. Matt Cain had something going on. Knuckleballers and guys with elite changeups tend to give up fewer runs than DIPS suggests they should.

 

I think what frustrates a lot of people is the IP threshold at which you start to take a serious look at it. Half the forum is calling for Aaron Loup's demotion even though he's been outstanding because they're looking at ERA in a 30-inning sample. People couldn't stop praising Sanchez because his ERA was shiny over a 50 inning sample.

 

There's a time to start taking a serious look at ERA-xFIP discrepancies. That time isn't after 50 innings, and the evidence suggests it isn't even after a few hundred innings.

[BTS]

hutch gets a lot of strikeouts because he has a good slider, but his fastball doesn't have a lot of movement and on the days that he isn't locating and especially on days when he isn't locating and the velocity is down he gets crushed.

 

Hutch has a 22% career line drive rate (over 25% this year) and a 38.8% career ground ball rate. Sanchez has an 18% line drive rate and a 60% ground ball rate. I guess you could chalk that up to randomness, but I would suggest that when both are having trouble locating the fastball that the one that has more velocity and sinks is a lot tougher to square up than the one with less velocity and less movement. I would bet my left nut that Sanchez has a higher ground ball rate and lower line drive rate over the next 5 seasons over Hutch.

 

League average LD rate is 21%, and that tends to fluctuate randomly. The GB is a skill, but it's accounted for in xFIP. Neither are interesting starting points in trying to explain why his ERA will continue to exceed his xFIP.

[Dick_Pole]

When I think of Hutch I think of morrow

 

Guy just unravels too much and is prone to injury

I would move him if he had any value

 

Assuming he lasts the year in the starting rotation, Hutchison is going to exceed 350 IP in the last two years - hardly Morrow-like lack of durability.