Sabermetrics | Introduction and Discussion

[FrozenRopes]

You need a bottle of tequila to read this thread. Baseball became more complicated for me. I like the info, but shite.

[Spanky99]

lol

[RealAccountant]

When they account for FIP do they consider the fact that in the NL the ninth hitter is a pitcher who is a prime candidate to strike out where as in the AL there is the DH who is usually a top hitter

[Cyborg]

When they account for FIP do they consider the fact that in the NL the ninth hitter is a pitcher who is a prime candidate to strike out where as in the AL there is the DH who is usually a top hitter

In WAR yes. FIP is unadjusted of park and league. FIP- is.

[GD]

Always use FIP-, ERA-, xFIP-, etc if you can. They really need SIERA-.

[GD]

I'm unaware of anywhere that displays RA9-.

[Laika]

I'm unaware of anywhere that displays RA9-.

 

If only there was like, some type of saber resource where we could access a bunch of newfangled stats that slip through the Fangraphs/BP cracks

[GD]

If only there was like, some type of saber resource where we could access a bunch of newfangled stats that slip through the Fangraphs/BP cracks

 

If only someone who could write that site's brain wasn't an owned asset

[Laika]

If only someone who could write that site's brain wasn't an owned asset

 

You are the only hope. I can't computer.

[Abomination]

You are the only hope. I can't computer.

 

And GD can't math lol.

[GD]

And GD can't math lol.

 

Hey! I'm just not a.. how would you say... Cyborg?

 

I can computer. I'll do it eventually.

[Thomas Malthus]

Fangraphs - How (Not) to Set Up a Fastball (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-not-to-set-up-a-fastball/)

 

...

I’m looking at how best to set up different types of pitches. We’ll start with four-seam fastballs, and, so as to keep it simple for now, focus just on the fastball and on the pitch immediately beforehand.Not pitches before that in the same at-bat, not pitches to the same batter earlier in the game, not pitches to that batter from a different game.

 

Intuitively, you might expect changing speeds on the batter to be an effective way to mess with their swing and timing. A changeup, then, should be a good pitch to set up a fastball – changeups are generally 10-plus mph slower than the same pitcher’s fastball. Curveballs, too, should be decent setup pitches, as should sliders to a lesser extent. (Sliders are usually thrown harder than curves.) As it turns out, though, it doesn’t quite work that way.

...

 

I have a couple of quibbles and some questions about this article (plus I wanted to post it since I thought it was interesting).

 

Quibbles

• Starting graphs away from zero is something that I don't think should be done without a very good reason, I'm not sure there's justification here and so the disparities presented seem much larger than perhaps is appropriate.
  
• Not presenting the number of observations for each preceding pitch type was probably a clutter/brevity decision but without them it makes it difficult to even quickly ballpark whether or not the differences between the preceding pitch types are statistically different from zero.
  

 

Questions

• The bolded text - simply pretending that these effects don't exist doesn't mean that they don't in fact matter. I understand that it may seem like they don't matter when answering the question, "Is there evidence that there exists an optimal pitch preceding a four-seam fastball?" but it seems like there could be significant interaction effects between those components and the selection of preceding pitch, no?
  
• There doesn't appear to be any explicitly stated sample restrictions. I don't really know the answer to this but how much does it matter that we're including non-starters (specifically, closers)? I know that they pitch fewer innings but intuitively sequencing matters less for a guy like Sanchez (or perhaps Osuna would be a better example?) than it does for a guy like Greinke, right? I mean I understand that imposing certain types of restrictions will introduce attrition bias but not making those restrictions could also be problematic.
  
• There's a fundamental assumption imposed or if not "imposed" then underlying the analysis - that fastballs are the pitch being primed, not the priming pitch. Is this a reasonable starting point? For example, in this article (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marco-estrada-has-maybe-the-changiest-changeup/) talking about Estrada's changeup it seems that the ordering is fastball then changeup.
  

 

Additionally, in the comments section MGL (I assume the real MGL?) wrote:

...

Finally I have said for many years that the notion of a “set-up pitch” is mostly nonsense that you hear from commentators and baseball insiders. All pitches and all sequences should have the same value according to game theory, assuming a Nash Equilibrium.

 

Wouldn't this only be the case with perfect information? Does anyone have any links or anything about this particular point?

 

EDIT: Found more pitch sequencing stuff where MGL makes an appearance:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/defining-the-pitch-sequencing-question/

http://mglbaseball.com/2013/10/08/do-ex-pitchers-understand-how-to-pitch/

 

And here's a few other links on it for those interested in reading more:

http://cheaptalk.org/2011/10/19/serial-correlation-in-baseball-pitch-sequences/

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11585

http://www.galvanize.com/blog/the-data-science-behind-baseball-pitching-strategy/#.VnpgjJMrKRs

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/game-theory-says-r-a-dickey-should-throw-more-knuckleballs/

 

EDIT 2: On further thought I understand MGL's comment abut equal value, it is a direct result of the equilibrium. Just had a brain fart.

Edited December 23, 2015 by Thomas Malthus

[King]

https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/does-throwing-harder-mean-throwing-wilder/?utm_source=website&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=general

[Laika]

https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/does-throwing-harder-mean-throwing-wilder/?utm_source=website&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=general

 

"Interestingly enough, despite there being no relationship between higher fastball velocities and strike zone %, there is a moderate relationship between higher fastball velocities and walk rates – so another factor must be involved."

 

Power pitchers tend to have power breaking balls too. I bet THOSE have lower zone% and lead to the walk rates.

 

ANOTHER IDEA - power pitchers get more whiffs. That's less contact. Less balls in play. Deeper counts. More walks!

 

It's elementary, batman.

 

wait

[TwistedLogic]

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/The%20value%20of%20flexibility%20in%20baseball%20roster%20construction.pdf

[Laika]

[jays4life19]

^ What studs.

[ChrisS]

For people who like sports and are interested in Sabermetrics, "Math behind Moneyball" has been pretty interesting so far. Brushed up on my excel skills as well.

Its about $60 and you get a certificate.

 

https://www.coursera.org/learn/mathematics-sport

[P2F]

*PROSPECT PORN ALERT*

 

FanGraphs now incorporates minor league xFIP in their player pages!

 

 

http://i1.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/285/908/8b5.png

[Yippy]

Stroman opposite field wow

[Abomination]

Anyone know what pitch type "IN" is? I ran across it in the gameday files, and can't find any info about it. Do a search for (pitch_type="IN") without the brackets in the file below.

 

http://gd2.mlb.com/components/game/mlb/year_2017/month_04/day_08/gid_2017_04_08_bosmlb_detmlb_1/inning/inning_all.xml

[Boxcar]

Anyone know what pitch type "IN" is? I ran across it in the gameday files, and can't find any info about it. Do a search for (pitch_type="IN") without the brackets in the file below.

 

http://gd2.mlb.com/components/game/mlb/year_2017/month_04/day_08/gid_2017_04_08_bosmlb_detmlb_1/inning/inning_all.xml

 

I believe that means the pitch type was inconclusive

[Abomination]

I believe that means the pitch type was inconclusive

 

That was my first thought too, but the type confidence is reasonably high (higher than other pitches in the at bat at any rate). Either the system is pretty damn sure it doesn't know what the pitch is, or it's something else.

[jays_fever]

Anyone have a short version of what goes into a pitchers WAR?

 

I just noticed Stroman beats Quintana in IP and FIP+XFIP but has less war than him

[Abomination]

Anyone have a short version of what goes into a pitchers WAR?

 

I just noticed Stroman beats Quintana in IP and FIP+XFIP but has less war than him

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/calculating-war-pitchers/

[Olerud363]

I just want to state this plainly. The quote above is you playing the victim and being a HUGE *******. You have been provided links, you have been provided explanations. When you either failed (or refused) to understand them, you lashed out at everyone LIKE A BIG JERK. Here's another article you can read. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/granderson-and-left-field/

 

The CF-playing-a-corner guy doesn’t magically lose some range when shifting to a corner. His physical abilities are the same, and his ability to cover ground to his left and right remains the same. The only difference is that instead of covering two gaps, he’s now covering one gap and one line. (...) The total difference in defensive performance between the two alignments is simply the drop in value in right-center balls caught minus the rise in value in left field line balls caught. We’re talking about a marginal difference on just a handful of balls in play over a full season. We’re talking about fractions of a run.

 

This argument is years old, but I just noticed it. Another example of you guys not understanding simple logic. The article you reference is comparing two players (Granderson and Gardner) with (at the time) comparable defensive abilities. You are completely missing the point.

 

My argument is that if you took Kevin Kiermair and Nelson Cruz (hypothetically say you had to play him in left) that it would matter. That the combined WAR of Kiermair and Cruz would be much higher with Kiermair in center.

 

Our society is literally falling apart because we don't care about each other. We don't care about logic, numbers, or decency.

 

Me: If you hypothetically had Keirmair and Cruz in the outfield would it matter which one played left and center?? Given they have such different defensive abilities.

 

KingKat: You dumb bro. See this article about Granderson and Gardner.

 

Me: Yes... I agree if you have Gardner and Granderson (circa 2010 version) it doesn't matter which one goes in left or center. But what if it was Keirmaier and Nelson Cruz (2016ish versions)??

 

KingKatr: You dumb bro. ZZZIIIINNNGGGG!!!!

 

Me: What the f***?? You literally didn't answer the question.

 

KingKat: ZIIIINNNNGGG!!!

 

BJMB: Applause.

[Boxcar]

Where did this happen?

[Laika]

 

Important reference for analyzing exit velocity.

 

As Tango explained, the key take home is that average exit velocity measures can be pretty awful to use. Balls hit 70 - 90 mph have about the same expected wOBA. So a player who hits a bunch of balls 90 mph exactly will be a worse hitter than a guy who hits half of them 70 mph and half of them 110 mph, even though their average exit velocities will be identical.

[John_Havok]

 

Important reference for analyzing exit velocity.

 

As Tango explained, the key take home is that average exit velocity measures can be pretty awful to use. Balls hit 70 - 90 mph have about the same expected wOBA. So a player who hits a bunch of balls 90 mph exactly will be a worse hitter than a guy who hits half of them 70 mph and half of them 110 mph, even though their average exit velocities will be identical.

 

90+ or GTFO of the lineup

[Spanky99]

Fangraphs - How (Not) to Set Up a Fastball (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-not-to-set-up-a-fastball/)

 

 

 

I have a couple of quibbles and some questions about this article (plus I wanted to post it since I thought it was interesting).

 

Quibbles

• Starting graphs away from zero is something that I don't think should be done without a very good reason, I'm not sure there's justification here and so the disparities presented seem much larger than perhaps is appropriate.
  
• Not presenting the number of observations for each preceding pitch type was probably a clutter/brevity decision but without them it makes it difficult to even quickly ballpark whether or not the differences between the preceding pitch types are statistically different from zero.
  

 

Questions

• The bolded text - simply pretending that these effects don't exist doesn't mean that they don't in fact matter. I understand that it may seem like they don't matter when answering the question, "Is there evidence that there exists an optimal pitch preceding a four-seam fastball?" but it seems like there could be significant interaction effects between those components and the selection of preceding pitch, no?
  
• There doesn't appear to be any explicitly stated sample restrictions. I don't really know the answer to this but how much does it matter that we're including non-starters (specifically, closers)? I know that they pitch fewer innings but intuitively sequencing matters less for a guy like Sanchez (or perhaps Osuna would be a better example?) than it does for a guy like Greinke, right? I mean I understand that imposing certain types of restrictions will introduce attrition bias but not making those restrictions could also be problematic.
  
• There's a fundamental assumption imposed or if not "imposed" then underlying the analysis - that fastballs are the pitch being primed, not the priming pitch. Is this a reasonable starting point? For example, in this article (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marco-estrada-has-maybe-the-changiest-changeup/) talking about Estrada's changeup it seems that the ordering is fastball then changeup.
  

 

Additionally, in the comments section MGL (I assume the real MGL?) wrote:

 

 

Wouldn't this only be the case with perfect information? Does anyone have any links or anything about this particular point?

 

EDIT: Found more pitch sequencing stuff where MGL makes an appearance:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/defining-the-pitch-sequencing-question/

http://mglbaseball.com/2013/10/08/do-ex-pitchers-understand-how-to-pitch/

 

And here's a few other links on it for those interested in reading more:

http://cheaptalk.org/2011/10/19/serial-correlation-in-baseball-pitch-sequences/

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11585

http://www.galvanize.com/blog/the-data-science-behind-baseball-pitching-strategy/#.VnpgjJMrKRs

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/game-theory-says-r-a-dickey-should-throw-more-knuckleballs/

 

EDIT 2: On further thought I understand MGL's comment abut equal value, it is a direct result of the equilibrium. Just had a brain fart.

 

I miss this guy, he was a pretty smart ballfan.