General Jays Discussion 2015

[HERPDERP]

Stephen R Brooks ‏@sbrooksbaseball 2m2 minutes ago

We've passed the 40k mark for tonight's game.

[Farm]

that"s pure snark!!! And every post was negative.

 

Seriously though. Disagreeing with you isn't negative.

 

Is 3.7 WAR over 6 years that ridiculous though? I mean you obviously you have to take into account injury risk but won't insurance cover a portion of that? If 3.7 WAR for 6 years was the rate, I wouldn't immediately say no, depending on the other available free agents willing to come here.

 

We want to win now, and our 2016 team should be good as well. Tulo, Travis, and maybe even Saunders for the entire year. Our offense is pretty much set. Is a Stroman/Dickey/Hutch/Sanchez/Osuna rotation good enough? Even if we add a Zimmerman or Leake type during free agency, it's highly probable that something will happen to the rotation and we will want to add another top tier pitcher at the trade deadline -- and the Price trade took about $50 million in prospect surplus value.

[Followthelight]

Stephen R Brooks ‏@sbrooksbaseball 2m2 minutes ago

We've passed the 40k mark for tonight's game.

 

Weren't some people here saying the Jays would still not draw a lot more especially on weeknights even if they are contenders? Looks like that's wrong.

[GD]

Seriously though. Disagreeing with you isn't negative.

 

Is 3.7 WAR over 6 years that ridiculous though? I mean you obviously you have to take into account injury risk but won't insurance cover a portion of that? If 3.7 WAR for 6 years was the rate, I wouldn't immediately say no, depending on the other available free agents willing to come here.

 

We want to win now, and our 2016 team should be good as well. Tulo, Travis, and maybe even Saunders for the entire year. Our offense is pretty much set. Is a Stroman/Dickey/Hutch/Sanchez/Osuna rotation good enough? Even if we add a Zimmerman or Leake type during free agency, it's highly probable that something will happen to the rotation and we will want to add another top tier pitcher at the trade deadline -- and the Price trade took about $50 million in prospect surplus value.

 

3.7 WAR per year for 7 years isn't impossible, but there are the obvious cases like Lee and co that just make it very tough to hand out that kind of money. It's so risky.

 

I really wonder what Zimmermann gets. Probably a ton, but maybe something affordable. Then again, what if he's not really that good anymore? Strikeouts are way down. He's gotten better / added velo as the season has gone on, though.

[JaysFanSmith]

Stephen R Brooks ‏@sbrooksbaseball 2m2 minutes ago

We've passed the 40k mark for tonight's game.

 

Hopefully the Jays can sustain winning so you'll see these numbers nightly.

[Farm]

3.7 WAR per year for 7 years isn't impossible, but there are the obvious cases like Lee and co that just make it very tough to hand out that kind of money. It's so risky.

 

I really wonder what Zimmermann gets. Probably a ton, but maybe something affordable. Then again, what if he's not really that good anymore? Strikeouts are way down. He's gotten better / added velo as the season has gone on, though.

 

Do you agree with the premise that the Jays need to add another top tier starter to the rotation? If so, adding Price makes a lot more sense IMO.

[DuckDuckGose]

Seriously though. Disagreeing with you isn't negative.

 

Is 3.7 WAR over 6 years that ridiculous though? I mean you obviously you have to take into account injury risk but won't insurance cover a portion of that? If 3.7 WAR for 6 years was the rate, I wouldn't immediately say no, depending on the other available free agents willing to come here.

 

We want to win now, and our 2016 team should be good as well. Tulo, Travis, and maybe even Saunders for the entire year. Our offense is pretty much set. Is a Stroman/Dickey/Hutch/Sanchez/Osuna rotation good enough? Even if we add a Zimmerman or Leake type during free agency, it's highly probable that something will happen to the rotation and we will want to add another top tier pitcher at the trade deadline -- and the Price trade took about $50 million in prospect surplus value.

 

Lot's of people disagreed with me, how many did I call negative?

 

3.7 WAR is very reasonable but it's really about what Price will provide in the next two seasons. If the Jays get to the WS in the next 3 years they'll make tehir $200M back regardless of Price's future performance. There's an opportunity cost to not going for it this offseason.

[DuckDuckGose]

3.7 WAR per year for 7 years isn't impossible, but there are the obvious cases like Lee and co that just make it very tough to hand out that kind of money. It's so risky.

 

I really wonder what Zimmermann gets. Probably a ton, but maybe something affordable. Then again, what if he's not really that good anymore? Strikeouts are way down. He's gotten better / added velo as the season has gone on, though.

 

Good teams take risks, if you want to win 85 games stay pat and add some mid-rotation guys. If you want to compete you're going to need more than Dickey and Stro

[Angrioter]

Good teams take risks, if you want to win 85 games stay pat and add some mid-rotation guys. If you want to compete you're going to need more than Dickey and Stro

 

Royals rotation 2015:

1-Ventura

2-Volquez

3-Vargas

4-Guthrie

5-Duffy/Young

[Followthelight]

Good teams take risks, if you want to win 85 games stay pat and add some mid-rotation guys. If you want to compete you're going to need more than Dickey and Stro

 

Agree, and it's not like we have anyone left in the minors to take a step up, we traded them away.

[DuckDuckGose]

Royals rotation 2015:

1-Ventura

2-Volquez

3-Vargas

4-Guthrie

5-Duffy/Young

 

The Royals are in trouble long term, they went out and added Cueto bc they know their window is closing.

[DuckDuckGose]

Agree, and it's not like we have anyone left in the minors to take a step up, we traded them away.

 

Or the pieces to add a cheap young starter if one were to become available. The only real option is free agency and it's going to take big $.

[metafour]

but there are the obvious cases like Lee and co that just make it very tough to hand out that kind of money. It's so risky.

 

Even with the write-off 2015 and majority of 2014, Cliff Lee has still produced 19 fWAR and 21.2 bWAR for the Phillies since 2011. If you account ~$6 million per win (Lewie Pollis actually had it at ~$7 mill per win in 2013), that pegs his value at $114-$127.2 million. Yes that contract was a major anchor this season; but throughout the life of it it really wasn't as bad as you paint it. During the years that the Phillies were realistically trying to contend (their "window"), Lee was actually providing surplus value for them over his $21-25 million per year salary. Their roster was never built to contend in ~2015 anyway.

[Angrioter]

The Royals are in trouble long term, they went out and added Cueto bc they know their window is closing.

 

Are you sure?

The Royals are closer to winning a World Series than the Jays.

[pickoff22]

Are you sure?

The Royals are closer to winning a World Series than the Jays.

 

By a whopping 0.1% according to FG. BP has the Jays chances as 12.9% vs. the Royals at 10.3%

[DuckDuckGose]

Are you sure?

The Royals are closer to winning a World Series than the Jays.

 

Ya, they're looking great for 2015. Should be fine for 2016 as well. 2017 and beyond I don't see them in the playoffs without big additions.

[RealAccountant]

The Royals are in trouble long term, they went out and added Cueto bc they know their window is closing.

 

Borderline jaysfan2014 post.

[CHRIS]

Dirk Hayhurst "Only a matter of time before the Jays pass the Yankees". Nice Jinx arsehole.

 

Hayhurst can FYSCM.

 

Jinx neutralized!

[HERPDERP]

E5 out for 3 straight games now

[HERPDERP]

Sportsnet PR ‏@SportsnetPR 2m2 minutes ago

Last night's @BlueJays game on @Sportsnet was the most-watched Blue Jays game in network history (1.44M), surpassing the 2013 Home Opener

 

A Tuesday night game against Oakland lol

[LTR]

Sportsnet PR ‏@SportsnetPR 2m2 minutes ago

Last night's @BlueJays game on @Sportsnet was the most-watched Blue Jays game in network history (1.44M), surpassing the 2013 Home Opener

 

A Tuesday night game against Oakland lol

 

lol... I went to a sports clothing store the other day and as soon as I walked in the guy said "got the Blue Jays fever?" ... and I was like "yup"... and he was like yeah "we're sold out of almost everything"...

[DuckDuckGose]

Borderline jaysfan2014 post.

 

hah, ya it kind of was but I really can't see it. They have a weak farm after the deals they've made and have some big FA's over the next couple seasons. For their fans I hope they can resign some of their key guys but small-market teams like KC tend to let them walk or trade them before they hit FA.

[MunenoriKawasakiMVP]

lol... I went to a sports clothing store the other day and as soon as I walked in the guy said "got the Blue Jays fever?" ... and I was like "yup"... and he was like yeah "we're sold out of almost everything"...

Even Cliff Pennington jerseys?

[HERPDERP]

lol... I went to a sports clothing store the other day and as soon as I walked in the guy said "got the Blue Jays fever?" ... and I was like "yup"... and he was like yeah "we're sold out of almost everything"...

 

lol people were bitching about there being a lack of Jays gear available in Vancouver. Turns out it's because they sold out everything..

[LTR]

Even Cliff Pennington jerseys?

 

Was looking for something for my daughter, they had nothing.

[HERPDERP]

check out #JaysVIP for some cool pics of behind the scenes operations

 

[Virgil_Hiltz]

lol... I went to a sports clothing store the other day and as soon as I walked in the guy said "got the Blue Jays fever?" ... and I was like "yup"... and he was like yeah "we're sold out of almost everything"...

 

Hopefully the beancounters at Rogers is taking note at the amount of $$$$$ they can make when the team is in a playoff race.

300,000 tickets sold the last few days x average ticket of $35(?) = $10,500,000 + whatever swag the fans will buy and the cut from concessions!

 

Hopefully the players won't have to sacrifice any salary to allow AA to sign a pitcher (Ervin Santana scenario)

[DuckDuckGose]

+ they've more than doubled the average TV ratings since acquiring Tulo

[pickoff22]

Swag revenue is split among all 30 clubs, they were filling a similar amount of seats last year at this time, and extra fans lead to more expenses. This won't lead to payroll skyrocketing next season.

 

Skyrocketing isn't the word, but you are definitely downplaying the impact on revenue this is having. Last year they were not even close to filling as many seats as right now. Games in September have much less availability then they did last year. And those games will sell out, something that hasn't happen for September games in a very very long time. The marginal rise in expenses from extra fans at the stadium is minimal and certainly offset by the added revenue from concessions/merchandise etc. It's a big deal.

[RealAccountant]

I think you guys are underestimating the value of Novelty. If this was the way jays were every year the hype wouldn't be nearly as big. A lot of this excitement and uptick is due to that factor

 

Rogers understands that.