General Jays Discussion 2015

[LTR]

Sooo I'm looking at ticket prices for the Jays game on Saturday. I bought these tickets with a flex pack for roughly $60-$70. Now they're going for $180-$300. Bitches be cray

 

Slang terms I completely loathe:

 

#1 Bae - People who use this term need to get sledgehammered in the face.

#2 Cray - Just f***ing say crazy stupid bitchass.

[HERPDERP]

Slang terms I completely loathe:

 

#1 Bae - People who use this term need to get sledgehammered in the face.

#2 Cray - Just f***ing say crazy stupid bitchass.

 

brah you old

[LTR]

brah you old

 

Not even

[CHRIS]

Sooo I'm looking at ticket prices for the Jays game on Saturday. I bought these tickets with a flex pack for roughly $60-$70. Now they're going for $180-$300. Bitches be cray

 

I've been planning for weeks to go to tomorrow's game and pick up tickets from a scalper. Hopefully the crazy Yankee prices don't bleed too much into the A's series.

[dineke]

[Frenchsoup]

I've been planning for weeks to go to tomorrow's game and pick up tickets from a scalper. Hopefully the crazy Yankee prices don't bleed too much into the A's series.

 

ppl might be craving there bj's with the offday yesterday.

[HERPDERP]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-overachieving-underachieving-blue-jays-juggernaut/

 

"The rest of the way, the Blue Jays are projected as the best team in the American League"

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

lol

 

But really if the information in is Flawed, how can the information out be trusted is all?

 

Answer the questions, lol

[KingKat]

 

 

I've always hated the white panel cap.

[o2cui2i]

I've always hated the white panel cap.

 

I'm with you. It just looks like Dollar Store fodder.

[nextyear]

My answer is above...accumulative stats rolled into one. Just because they don't lay down a constant/predictive answer to wins, doesn't mean it isn't effective? The result is predictive to the clubs talent, it's going to be close, very close. The best baseball gives at the moment, unless you've came up with a better formula?

 

P.S. That was far from rational, have you heard of sample sizes, in silly dumb retarded results you've came up with, yes it is irrational you stunned f***ing twat.

 

 

I won't call you a moronic twit because I don't want to insult moronic twits.

 

Of course sample size is important but you don't indicate what the sample size should be. Should it be 1000 plate appearances, if so then why indicate WAR to one decimal point for players with fewer than 300. Do you think that expressing WAR to one decimal point is legitimate for such a small sample size? In the case of predicting Devon Travis future WAR, I would say it is probably in the range of 0 - 4 because so little data is available.

 

If you want to act rational then don't throw sample size comments around, actually provide some meaningful information by stating a sample size parameter for WAR and why it is meaningful.

[Frenchsoup]

Valencia hitting 4th for the A's, this is good

[KingKat]

They look ok I suppose. Nothing to go crazy over. Would like to see the powder blues instead

 

I suppose you mean the jerseys because the white panel hat was part of the powder blue uni. There was never a powder blue hat.

 

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_YSj9VerPFmY/RvJ488k2sVI/AAAAAAAAAJc/l4kwoyb7hJU/s400/torhomealt2.jpg

[Captain Adama]

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/8/11/9127809/which-traded-players-have-helped-new-team-most-tulowitzki-cueto-zobrist

 

SSS alert: Tulo as expected, tops the leaderboard for most wins provided to his team since traded.

 

If you look at the pitching side though, Boyd has been worth as much as Price. But Price beats him in WPA FWIW.

[L54]

 

Love it!

[Farm]

I actually do understand what WAR is. I wouldn't have such a problem with WAR if was called something like Combined Offensive Defensive metric. However, if you go to fangraphs the WAR metric is described as follows: (source: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/ )

You should always use more than one metric at a time when evaluating players, but WAR is all-inclusive and provides a useful reference point for comparing players. WAR offers an estimate to answer the question, “If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a freely available minor leaguer or a AAAA player from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?” This value is expressed in a wins format, so we could say that Player X is worth +6.3 wins to their team while Player Y is only worth +3.5 wins, which means it is highly likely that Player X has been more valuable than Player Y.

 

A team made up of all Replacement level player (R in the WAR stat) is assumed to win 48 games per year (thereabouts, I don't have time now to look it up). So to get to a 0.500 team all players combined need WAR's to add up to an additional 33 games (to get to 81 games) over 162 games (there is some uncertainty, say +/- 5 games).

 

Based on what I have stated above (from fangraphs) if Devon Travis, who is a plus WAR player, is replaced with Replacement level players (WAR of 0) and other players on the team remain the same then the team should win fewer games. However, in reality this wasn't the case; we know there is some uncertainty so even winning the same number or close (percentage wise) would be acceptable but the difference was well over 10 in the wrong direction.

 

Please, could people stop claiming that I don't understand WAR. I understand it since it is a simple concept. However, WAR is not reliable in determining what it is intended to determine (Wins Above Replacement).

 

I believe Devon Travis is a good player, but assigning a 2.4 WAR to him over his short career is meaningless as indicated by his real WAR when he was actually injured and replaced by a Replacement level player (determined directly) with almost all other players remaining the same (the team WAR didn't change significantly until players like Tulowitzki were acquired).

 

In short, Devon Travis is a good player, but the WAR metric is just an interesting stat which cannot reliably calculate Wins Above Replacement as it is intended to do.

 

In 2009, Fangraphs showed that there was a 0.83 correlation between actual record and predicted record based on fWAR in the 2009 season.

 

In 2012, The Hardball Times gathered data from 1996-2011. They found that there was a 0.91 correlation between actual record and bWAR.

 

It is 2015 and we shouldn't be having this discussion. More WAR is clearly correlated to more wins.

[Dr. Dinger]

Danny Valencia is already at 0.5 WAR, btw.

 

His .380 wOBA is also better than Bautista's. Can't believe we kept Colabello over him.

[Frenchsoup]

His .380 wOBA is also better than Bautista's. Can't believe we kept Colabello over him.

 

He's just on a hot streak.. if you haven't figured out what Danny Valencia is at this point i don't know what to tell you...

[Dr. Dinger]

He's just on a hot streak.. if you haven't figured out what Danny Valencia is at this point i don't know what to tell you...

 

He's actually just flat out a better hitter than Colabello, not to mention much more versatile defensively. If you can't figure that out, I don't know what to tell you.

[HERPDERP]

He's just on a hot streak.. if you haven't figured out what Danny Valencia is at this point i don't know what to tell you...

 

Valencia has been destroying righties too.

[nextyear]

WAR is an accumulative stat that refers to the number of runs a player has created for his team. Its components (wRAA, FIP, UZR, UBR) accurately capture performance and are able to isolate the contributions of individual players.

 

The difference between team WAR and team wins is almost entirely standard random variance, not real effects that WAR isn't properly capturing. Here are some possible such effects, which are small:

- Pitchers controlling the running game

- Framing's impact on non-FIP pitching components

- The manager's matching of reliever talent and leverage

 

The samples don't come into play. If you're trying to use WAR as a predictive tool instead, then of course they do. Although there are better predictive tools.

 

Danny Valencia is already at 0.5 WAR, btw.

 

 

Good point, thank you. I was considering it's use as a predictive indicator, but I understand that the data for this year can be calculated fairly precisely.

 

It seems like WAR is often used to indicate what type of player one has been in the past. Such as a 2.0 WAR player over one's career. In the case of a player with 1000 - 2000 plate appearances I can see it as being a useful indicator, although for me I prefer to look at the individual stats instead of an all inclusive stat such as WAR.

[Dr. Dinger]

Obviously he's not really a full-time slugger, but Valencia is a very useful player (hits lefties, can play four positions) who has much more utility than Colabello. If the the team does believe in Smoak, then Smoak and Valencia totally dominate Colabello's skillset. That decision didn't make much sense.

 

It's taken a .395 BABIP to get Colabello to 0.1 WAR across 70 games. That's coming from a 1B-only, and a 1B-only with atrocious 1B defence. That move was indefensible.

[HERPDERP]

E5 is sitting out for 2nd game in a row.

[LTR]

E5 is sitting out for 2nd game in a row.

 

They should have f***ing done that in the first place and we wouldn't be in this position. This medical stuff is full of buffoons.

[Sammy225]

They should have f***ing done that in the first place and we wouldn't be in this position. This medical stuff is full of buffoons.

 

Not really the med staff... All they can say is it is sprained or deep bone bruise or whatever it is. They don't determine who goes on the DL they give the diagnosis and probably a suggestion but that is then up to the management team.

[DuckDuckGose]

Good point, thank you. I was considering it's use as a predictive indicator, but I understand that the data for this year can be calculated fairly precisely.

 

It seems like WAR is often used to indicate what type of player one has been in the past. Such as a 2.0 WAR player over one's career. In the case of a player with 1000 - 2000 plate appearances I can see it as being a useful indicator, although for me I prefer to look at the individual stats instead of an all inclusive stat such as WAR.

 

WAR isn't predictive, that's why you use projection systems which are very very good at predicting future performance.

[LTR]

Not really the med staff... All they can say is it is sprained or deep bone bruise or whatever it is. They don't determine who goes on the DL they give the diagnosis and probably a suggestion but that is then up to the management team.

 

This is all wrong. If the medical staff says Edwin needs one week to receover, management is not going to turn-around and say OK give him 1-2 days. Medical staff is clearly incompetent.

[Rajais Mitten]

There is only so much you could do also if Edwin says he feel's ok and is lying to you because he wants to play

[HERPDERP]

Sit him out the entire series and get him prepped for NY

[LTR]

There is an obvious trend on this team of letting players play through injuries; which I'm sorry to say is not old school baseball, it's not physical toughness, it's not a drive to compete... it's fundamentally stupid.