General Jays Discussion 2015

[nextyear]

You can crunch numbers all you want, but the greatest value Tulo has given the club is that now they believe they are good. Also I think Tulo's D is much better then Reyes so the pitchers trust that when a ball is hit in his direction it will be an out. Dramatically changing how you pitch and therefore making you more effective, therefore resulting in fewer RAs. WAR is not built to calculate all of that.

Getting back to believing. If you believe you can win, it does not matter what the score is before the game ends, you know you have a chance to win. If there is any doubt that you can win, then if near the end of the game comes and it seems out of reach, a win will rarely happen. Right now the BJs believe they can win each and every game and that started with the trade for Tulo.

For evidence of belief, look at what happened in the 1990's when the Twins started the year with 25 virtual nobodies who all believed they could win and kept that belief all season. They won the WS that year. If the BJs go on to win the WS, it does not matter that stats may say Tulo WAR ended at -4.0, the belief that got then there started with that trade and that is what makes that trade very important and valuable.

 

 

I completely agree. However, there are a few people on this forum who will consider this to be nonsense (but not me).

 

Another example is the 1994 Expos. The players believed that they were good enough to win the world series and were in first place when the season ended. Sadly in that case the outcome was no World Series for any team (but I digress).

Edited August 7, 2015 by nextyear

[burlingtonbandit]

I'm going to go out on a limb and the the 2 above posters is the same person talking to himself.

[nextyear]

I'm going to go out on a limb and the the 2 above posters is the same person talking to himself.

 

 

No, we are not the same person. I am not even being argumentative. I think the fWAR statistic is interesting.

 

It only seems like an argument because it is in writing instead of a spoken conversation.

[BigCecil]

Don't tell Olerud. He'll let you know how fast things can change!

 

Speaking of Olerud...and I know it's a few days late, but I remembered now. August 2nd, 1993 was when John Olerud dipped under .400 for good that season. No player had hit .400 deeper into the season since Ted Williams in 1941. I'll always remember that fondly.

 

Guy had an 8 WAR in 93! and was benched for Carter. lol That was an amazing year. Great player.

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/current-blue-jays-still-not-up-to-1993-levels-of-offence/ is an interesting piece on how this offense doesn't match 93 yet.

[HERPDERP]

How can you not like Revere

http://streamable.com/hj3x

[Angrioter]

Jays on road to the Yankees Stadium

http://img.dunyanews.tv/news/2012/December/12-21-12/news_big_images/150195_67403762.jpg

[Brownie19]

Guy had an 8 WAR in 93! and was benched for Carter. lol That was an amazing year. Great player.

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/current-blue-jays-still-not-up-to-1993-levels-of-offence/ is an interesting piece on how this offense doesn't match 93 yet.

 

Carter finished his career with a WAR of 17.1. Cito was so stupid.

[BigCecil]

Carter finished his career with a WAR of 17.1. Cito was so stupid.

 

Yup. Thanks for the '93 HR and many other moments, but one of the most over rated players to ever put on a Jays uniform.

[jays4life19]

Fun facts.

Jose Reyes 399 PA with the 2015 Bluejays = 1.1 fWAR

Troy Tulowitzki 39 PA with the 2015 Bluejays = 0.9 fWAR

 

I f***ing love Tulo.

[GD]

A SHORTSTOP UPGRADE ISN'T GONNA WIN US THE WORLD SERIES

 

lol.gif

[DuckDuckGose]

Best SS in baseball!

 

[GD]

that is going to be my avatar at some point

[Boxcar]

Fun facts.

Jose Reyes 399 PA with the 2015 Bluejays = 1.1 fWAR

Troy Tulowitzki 39 PA with the 2015 Bluejays = 0.9 fWAR

 

I f***ing love Tulo.

 

I still can't believe he's a blue jay. Holy f***, what a massive acquisition.

[DuckDuckGose]

that is going to be my avatar at some point

 

It should be the forum default

[Boxcar]

You can crunch numbers all you want, but the greatest value Tulo has given the club is that now they believe they are good. Also I think Tulo's D is much better then Reyes so the pitchers trust that when a ball is hit in his direction it will be an out. Dramatically changing how you pitch and therefore making you more effective, therefore resulting in fewer RAs. WAR is not built to calculate all of that.

Getting back to believing. If you believe you can win, it does not matter what the score is before the game ends, you know you have a chance to win. If there is any doubt that you can win, then if near the end of the game comes and it seems out of reach, a win will rarely happen. Right now the BJs believe they can win each and every game and that started with the trade for Tulo.

For evidence of belief, look at what happened in the 1990's when the Twins started the year with 25 virtual nobodies who all believed they could win and kept that belief all season. They won the WS that year. If the BJs go on to win the WS, it does not matter that stats may say Tulo WAR ended at -4.0, the belief that got then there started with that trade and that is what makes that trade very important and valuable.

 

Uh oh, someone from 1975 found a time machine!

[Boxcar]

I completely agree. However, there are a few people on this forum who will consider this to be nonsense (but not me).

 

Another example is the 1994 Expos. The players believed that they were good enough to win the world series and were in first place when the season ended. Sadly in that case the overcome was no World Series for any team (but I digress).

 

I agree. The mid-late 90s Yankees were the same. It didn't matter that they were stacked with Hall of Famers or borderline Hall of Famers, these guys created a dynasty because they believed they could win, something no amount of skill can overcome.

[dineke]

Best SS in baseball!

 

Hech?

[nextyear]

I agree. The mid-late 90s Yankees were the same. It didn't matter that they were stacked with Hall of Famers or borderline Hall of Famers, these guys created a dynasty because they believed they could win, something no amount of skill can overcome.

 

In spite of this post being sarcasm, I agree that having a team of superstars is the most important part of winning a World Series. However, there have been teams made up of superstars that have done poorly because of conflicts between teammates.

 

One thing that is well known of in science, chemistry for example, is synergy. I actually like having all the statistics available on fangraphs and other sites, however, I know it is impossible for WAR to include negative and positive synergy.

 

The post that I made earlier today was that Tulowitzki's contribution over Reyes' contribution is even greater than the WAR stat indicates (less than one additional win over 9 games). I don't know how anyone can dispute this.

[DuckDuckGose]

Hech?

http://hellogiggles.hellogiggles.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/20/256.gif

[Boxcar]

I don't know how anyone can dispute this.

 

By utilizing common sense. Plzzzz no more on Tulo, I love him so much that I wouldn't rule out becoming gay for him like that guy Lucas Troy from that one episode of Archer and don't want to have to shoot down your crazy number overestimations.

[Brownie19]

To be fair, if anyone had said WAR back then, people would've just picked up a grenade and said 'Where?'

 

I thought the 'eye test' was flawless? Cito must have been partially blind not to see Olerud hitting .363/.473/.599 was significantly better than Carter hitting .254/.312/.489. You don't need WAR, wRC+ or any advanced stats to know who's a much better hitter.

 

Olerud was the 3rd most valuable player in baseball in 1993 and Cito was benching him for Joe f***ing Carter.

[Brownie19]

...I hated Cito even when the team was great. A retarded monkey would've managed that team to 3 World Series wins.

 

Wait....ahhh...didn't...but.....ya, no. Dats racist.

[nextyear]

By utilizing common sense. Plzzzz no more on Tulo, I love him so much that I wouldn't rule out becoming gay for him like that guy Lucas Troy from that one episode of Archer and don't want to have to shoot down your crazy number overestimations.

 

This isn't common sense. You are the epitome of the saying: A little bit of knowledge is dangerous. Luckily your little bit of knowledge is in regards to baseball and hopefully you aren't piloting a commercial jet for a living (heaven's forbid).

[Boxcar]

This isn't common sense. You are the epitome of the saying: A little bit of knowledge is dangerous. Luckily your little bit of knowledge is in regards to baseball and hopefully you aren't piloting a commercial jet for a living (heaven's forbid).

 

Ok guy, the value Tulo has brought in 9 games is waaaay more than nearly equal to what Reyes did in more than half a season. My bad. It's because Tulo wants to win so bad and Fangraphs can't measure that (but you can)

[DuckDuckGose]

Ok guy, the value Tulo has brought in 9 games is waaaay more than nearly equal to what Reyes did in more than half a season. My bad. It's because Tulo wants to win so bad and Fangraphs can't measure that (but you can)

 

I think he was saying that having a decent defensive SS is helping the pitching staff which doesn't show up in Tulo's WAR.

[nextyear]

Ok guy, the value Tulo has brought in 9 games is waaaay more than nearly equal to what Reyes did in more than half a season. My bad. It's because Tulo wants to win so bad and Fangraphs can't measure that (but you can)

 

OK, this is the last post because I am at work. I did not say that it was because he wanted to win so badly, I just don't believe in the WAR statistic. It can't accurately measure a SS range and puts more weight on offense than defense when every one knows that a run saved equals a run scored.

 

Although I don't believe in the WAR stat, I still refer to stats that can be determined without making any assumptions (most of the basic and advanced stats). Why should I accept the WAR calculation when I prefer to look at all the individual statistical components on my own; it gives more information, which I have no problem understanding, and I can do calculations in my head.

 

Maybe you prefer fantasy baseball, I prefer the real thing played by humans.

[GD]

I think he was saying that having a decent defensive SS is helping the pitching staff which doesn't show up in Tulo's WAR.

 

Well, it's called Defensive Independent Pitching Statistics for a reason, lol.

[Boxcar]

I think he was saying that having a decent defensive SS is helping the pitching staff which doesn't show up in Tulo's WAR.

 

Sure it does. His defense is accounted for and pitchers were not punished for Reyes' shortcomings in that department to begin with.

[Boxcar]

OK, this is the last post because I am at work. I did not say that it was because he wanted to win so badly, I just don't believe in the WAR statistic. It can't accurately measure a SS range and puts more weight on offense than defense when every one knows that a run saved equals a run scored.

 

Although I don't believe in the WAR stat, I still refer to stats that can be determined without making any assumptions (most of the basic and advanced stats). Why should I accept the WAR calculation when I prefer to look at all the individual statistical components on my own; it gives more information, which I have no problem understanding, and I can do calculations in my head.

 

Maybe you prefer fantasy baseball, I prefer the real thing played by humans.

 

Well I'd buy your outlook if you came across a lot less kooky.

 

You're also GROSSLY underestimating how good 0.9 WAR in 9 games is.

[glory]

Tulo is a lot better than Reyes. Stats, eye test, Fangraphs, whatever you want to use, it will come to the same conclusion.