General Jays Discussion 2015

[RealAccountant]

Team is now 8-12 since The Streak, sort of what they were before it.

 

They'll need to get to 10-12 games over .500 for me to even consider emptying the farm system to go for it.

 

I think you are seriously over estimating what there is to sell in this farm system. There ain't much

[ElNik2013]

I think you are seriously over estimating what there is to sell in this farm system. There ain't much

 

 

 

I didn't say "to even consider emptying this great farm system to go for it". For the record, it's arguably a top 10 farm system, maybe top 12.

 

 

Even if there isn't much in the system to sell, the comment applies, they would have to offer up more prospects to make up for the lack of quality.

 

 

Still though, the issue is whether the team should go for it when they've barely been above .500 for 3 weeks.

[RealAccountant]

I didn't say "to even consider emptying this great farm system to go for it". For the record, it's arguably a top 10 farm system, maybe top 12.

 

 

Even if there isn't much in the system to sell, the comment applies, they would have to offer up more prospects to make up for the lack of quality.

 

 

Still though, the issue is whether the team should go for it when they've barely been above .500 for 3 weeks.

 

From a AA prespective I dont think he has a choice

 

He doesn't make a trade and Team doesn't compete in September = AA fired, never gets a GM job again

 

He makes a trade and its a disaster = AA fired

 

either way AA is fired unless the team competes. If I am him, I would empty the farm.

[o2cui2i]

I know this team was always flawed, but the last week has me thinking rebuild more than push it over the line. I just dont see how 1 or 2 trades will put this team to where it needs to be.

 

I really don't like the idea of emptying what little we have of value and probably not making the post season this year anyways.

[ElNik2013]

I know this team was always flawed, but the last week has me thinking rebuild more than push it over the line. I just dont see how 1 or 2 trades will put this team to where it needs to be.

 

I really don't like the idea of emptying what little we have of value and probably not making the post season this year anyways.

 

 

Team shouldn't be shooting for 1 year only anyway. If they "go for it" this year and not make it, what youth will they have for 2017 and beyond when Bautista and EE will either be on their last contracts, but aging, Martin aging and Donaldson approaching FA.

 

 

I say keep building the organization. Now, if there's a good deal to be made for a young guy under control for several years, then by all means.

 

Basically, I'd be looking for Travis type acquisitions. Loved that one.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

Agreed. They should keep Pillar.

 

Totally.

 

Great 4th outfielder.

 

Plus defence and can steal bases off the bench, and be a late in game defensive replacement.

[Mikeleelop]

Wow, Colabello is almost back down to replacement-level.

 

Even with his babip so far this year, he has been a replacement level player due to his horrific game changing defence

[nextyear]

Totally.

 

Great 4th outfielder.

 

Plus defence and can steal bases off the bench, and be a late in game defensive replacement.

 

 

I find it hard to believe that you think Kevin Pillar is just a 4th outfielder. He has proved in the past 2 months that he is a regular centre fielder (until he shows that he isn't).

 

Although I don't agree with your assessment of Pillar as a 4th outfielder, you have a right to your opinion since baseball is just entertainment for the enjoyment of fans who watch. Unfortunately, many of the past several games haven't been enjoyable.

[HERPDERP]

I find it hard to believe that you think Kevin Pillar is just a 4th outfielder. He has proved in the past 2 months that he is a regular centre fielder (until he shows that he isn't).

 

Although I don't agree with your assessment of Pillar as a 4th outfielder, you have a right to your opinion since baseball is just entertainment for the enjoyment of fans who watch. Unfortunately, many of the past several games haven't been enjoyable.

 

He is overperforming offensively. I mentioned a few days ago his babip for the month of June is over .400. He's not this good.

[Sorrow]

I almost wonder if we'd be better off as a team DFAing RA Dickey who has been terrible this year and running someone like Norris out every 5th day (this is assuming we can trade for a pitcher as well) or letting him come out and throw 4-5 innings of 5 run ball.

[HERPDERP]

One month with a BABIP over .400 does not a fluky hitter make. His peripherals are fine on the year. Pillar has been a legit league average hitter to date and projects to hit enough to make him an average regular in centre going forward.

 

Uh what? How on earth can you ignore a babip over .400? The guy is NOT this good. Using year to date stats is a poor way to look at this.

 

In April we pretty much got the Pillar we got as expected as a hitter. In May we got the worst of Pillar, but he had a pretty poor babip in the low 200s. His June is the complete opposite of the spectrum.

[JohnnyLonghorn]

Definitely not as good as his June numbers would indicate but not as bad as his May numbers either. I think the book is still out on Pillar but I think he has at least solidified his spot in CF for the year and deservedly so. If he can provide above average defense in CF and be a league average hitter I think Pillar could be a nice asset to this team moving forward.

[nextyear]

Uh what? How on earth can you ignore a babip over .400? The guy is NOT this good. Using year to date stats is a poor way to look at this.

 

In April we pretty much got the Pillar we got as expected as a hitter. In May we got the worst of Pillar, but he had a pretty poor babip in the low 200s. His June is the complete opposite of the spectrum.

 

 

Your analysis seems to indicate that players can't improve with experience in the Big Leagues.

 

Some players do have consistently higher than average BABIP - http://www.smartfantasybaseball.com/2012/12/babip/#more-30. You could use his expected BABIP based on his percentage of line drives - http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/6/25/558256/do-fast-players-get-more-h. Pillar seems to have a high percentage of line drives so he should have a higher than average BABIP.

 

In any case, I believe in the saying there are "lies, damned lies, and statistics". I have taken a few university level statistics courses and I don't want to turn baseball into a complicated statistical analysis. I will continue to believe that players like Kevin Pillar have the potential to become future stars. There are players that I enjoy watching for one reason or another, Pillar is one because he started as an underdog, Goins is another because I enjoy his defensive abilities, Brett Lawrie is another because I enjoy his intensitity and because he is a Canadian and former Blue Jay. There are others such as Colabello who I root for, because of his perserverance shown by all his years in the low minor leagues.

 

In any case, baseball is meant to be fun to play and watch, so I plan to enjoy it instead of treating it like a university statistics course.

[BlueJayWay]

If you're fast and can maintain a high LD% you can have a higher than average BABIP, but no one is anywhere near a true talent .400 babip guy in today's MLB.

 

As for the other stuff, of course you can enjoy baseball from a 'human interest' standpoint but in putting a team together, evaluating players, and figuring out how teams win in and lose the data matters.

[RealAccountant]

If this season has taught me anything its that you start with pitching and defense first. Then build your offense. Not the other way around.

[nextyear]

If you're fast and can maintain a high LD% you can have a higher than average BABIP, but no one is anywhere near a true talent .400 babip guy in today's MLB.

 

As for the other stuff, of course you can enjoy baseball from a 'human interest' standpoint but in putting a team together, evaluating players, and figuring out how teams win in and lose the data matters.

 

 

I agree with everything you stated above.

 

One thing that is important with a statistical analasis of baseball or a scientific/economic statistical model is that the more past data that you have (sample size) the beter the statistical model and forecast will be. So in the case of major league baseball, if a player has had 5 years in the Big Leagues and 2000 at bats then it is easier to predict his future performance than it is for a recent player to the MLB with a few hundred at bats. In the case of Kevin Pillar, if one tries to predict his future run production based on April, May and June of 2015 then there should be little confidence in the result.

 

A person doesn't need to know anything about statistics in order to know that Kevin Pillar's future is unclear; however he has shown that he may be a good run producer, with a lesser chance that he won't be.

[jaysfan2014]

If this season has taught me anything its that you start with pitching and defense first. Then build your offense. Not the other way around.

 

Then explain why the Rays are crashing in the standings despite their great pitching and defense? And why are the Yankees leading the division despite horrible defense and a mediocre pitching staff?

And the Royals aren't going to keep this up... try having 3 or 4 RA Dickeys in that rotation, which pretty much sums up the Royals. Worst starting pitching staff in the majors, only offset by a strong bullpen. Sooner or later, the Indians, Twins or Tigers are going to catch up to them if the Royals don't add a starter at the deadline.

 

If you want a well-built team, look at this year's Houston Astros.. that team is almost certain to win the AL West, especially if they add another SP.

[nextyear]

If this season has taught me anything its that you start with pitching and defense first. Then build your offense. Not the other way around.

 

 

I completely agree. Some of us have seen this over a period of decades.

 

Solid defense, solid pitching and a few better than average hitters like Bautista, Donaldson, Encarnacion, Martin, Pillar (recently) should produce a better than .500 ball team. I didn't include Reyes even through his hitting is above average because his fielding is suspect, likewise with Devon Travis he is an above average hitter but I am not sure yet about his defense (it might be alright but it would be good to see him play some more).

Edited July 5, 2015 by nextyear

[BigCecil]

I completely agree. Some of us have seen this over a period of decades.

 

Solid defense, solid pitching and a few better than average hitters like Bautista, Donaldson, Encarnacion, Martin, Pillar (recently) should produce a better than .500 ball team. I didn't include Reyes even through his hitting is above average because his fielding is subspect, likewise with Devon Travis he is an above average hitter but I am not sure yet about his defense (it might be alright but it would be good to see him play some more).

 

The only 2 championship teams we ever had were built around offense and average rotations. Our D wasn't plus.

 

92 did have a shutdown Ward/Henke pen to hold leads.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Then explain why the Rays are crashing in the standings despite their great pitching and defense? And why are the Yankees leading the division despite horrible defense and a mediocre pitching staff?

And the Royals aren't going to keep this up... try having 3 or 4 RA Dickeys in that rotation, which pretty much sums up the Royals. Worst starting pitching staff in the majors, only offset by a strong bullpen. Sooner or later, the Indians, Twins or Tigers are going to catch up to them if the Royals don't add a starter at the deadline.

 

If you want a well-built team, look at this year's Houston Astros.. that team is almost certain to win the AL West, especially if they add another SP.

 

So Dickey and Thole to Kc then it is, we take Wade Davis! Heck throw in 6-7 mill and it's like they get him for Free! Lol

[SaskJaysFan_2]

I find it hard to believe that you think Kevin Pillar is just a 4th outfielder. He has proved in the past 2 months that he is a regular centre fielder (until he shows that he isn't).

 

Although I don't agree with your assessment of Pillar as a 4th outfielder, you have a right to your opinion since baseball is just entertainment for the enjoyment of fans who watch. Unfortunately, many of the past several games haven't been enjoyable.

 

4th outfielder with lots of playing time. I still think Pompey has a higher ceiling and I want him in CF starting soon. But I hope Bautista, despite his defensive decline is in RF for a few more years and LF for me is still Saunders spot. So, with band-aid Saunders in mind, and decline JB, Pillar as the 4th OF gets lots of time.

 

I am overjoyed with Pillar this season and his defence has been fun to watch. If he manages to play all season, and keep his WAR between 2-3, then yeah, I would be prepared to offer him a FT spot. Make Saunders the 4th OF (he`s off the books in 2016 anyway, right)

[BigCecil]

Team shouldn't be shooting for 1 year only anyway. If they "go for it" this year and not make it, what youth will they have for 2017 and beyond when Bautista and EE will either be on their last contracts, but aging, Martin aging and Donaldson approaching FA.

 

 

I say keep building the organization. Now, if there's a good deal to be made for a young guy under control for several years, then by all means.

 

Basically, I'd be looking for Travis type acquisitions. Loved that one.

 

Cant be half pregnant. MIA deal changed the organizations philosophy like it or not. Aging Reyes and Martin with aging Jose and Edwin deals expiring. JD is an elite player but he came at a cost of losing talent the org built.

 

I don't want to waste an elite offense of today hoping Norris becomes the next Cliff Lee (ish) and Pompey becomes something he isn't likely. And that Sanchez finally stops BBing people. And that Stro is what he looks like he is for real after only 20 MLB starts etc etc.

 

We have gotten used to taking this offense for granted, but losing (due to age and/or not resigning) our 3/4 hitters etc will create a whole host of new variables/holes. I like Travis too but far too early to know what he will contribute sustainably above replacement.

[nextyear]

The only 2 championship teams we ever had were built around offense and average rotations. Our D wasn't plus.

 

92 did have a shutdown Ward/Henke pen to hold leads.

 

 

In 1992 their usual starters on defense in the infield were John Olerude (1B), Roberto Alomar (2B), Manuel Lee (SS) and Kelly Gruber (3B) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Toronto_Blue_Jays_season. That seems to be a very solid defense on the infield; all won gold gloves at some point of their carreer, except Manuel Lee whom I don't remember very well.

 

Some of their starting pitchers were: David Cone, Jack Norris, Dave Stieb, Jimmy Key, Al Lieter. That is a very solid pitching staff. Is there currently a team in the MLB that has as good a starting pitching staff?

[BigCecil]

In 1992 their usual starters on defense in the infield were John Olerude (1B), Roberto Alomar (2B), Manuel Lee (SS) and Kelly Gruber (3B) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Toronto_Blue_Jays_season. That seems to be a very solid defense on the infield; all won gold gloves at some point of their carreer, except Manuel Lee whom I don't remember very well.

 

Some of their starting pitchers were: David Cone, Jack Norris, Dave Stieb, Jimmy Key, Al Lieter. That is a very solid pitching staff. Is there currently a team in the MLB that has as good a starting pitching staff?

 

92 team was pretty good on D - don't forget Devo. Alomar was incredible of course. 92 is probably was plus. 93 meh.

 

Morris, Stewart and Steib, Key weren't very good. They were at the end of their careers in both 92 and 93. I think Steib and Key may not have even been left on rosters? Leiter was still developing after a lot of injuries and was a reliever in 93 series. Cone was a positive in 92. We also had Guzman and Hentgen. Our 5th starters were sketchy. Average overall.

[ElNik2013]

Cant be half pregnant. MIA deal changed the organizations philosophy like it or not. Aging Reyes and Martin with aging Jose and Edwin deals expiring. JD is an elite player but he came at a cost of losing talent the org built.

 

I don't want to waste an elite offense of today hoping Norris becomes the next Cliff Lee (ish) and Pompey becomes something he isn't likely. And that Sanchez finally stops BBing people. And that Stro is what he looks like he is for real after only 20 MLB starts etc etc.

 

We have gotten used to taking this offense for granted, but losing (due to age and/or not resigning) our 3/4 hitters etc will create a whole host of new variables/holes. I like Travis too but far too early to know what he will contribute sustainably above replacement.

 

 

The elite offense will be largely intact for next year, + Saunders + Pompey + Stroman. Go all-in by signing 1 or 2 FA starters and using the young guys as complementary players and depth.

 

Rotation:

 

1. FA SP.

2. Stroman.

3. FA SP/Buehrle/Hutchison

4. Norris.

5. Estrada/Sanchez/Boyd/Castro/Osuna/Taylor Cole?.

 

Lineup:

 

1. Reyes SS.

2. Donaldson 3B.

3. Bautista RF.

4. EE DH.

5. Martin C/Smoak 1B/ FA?

6. Smoak 1B/Martin C/ FA?

7. Travis 2B.

8. Saunders LF.

9. Pompey/Pillar CF.

 

Play the FA game.

[BigCecil]

The elite offense will be largely intact for next year, + Saunders + Pompey + Stroman. Go all-in by signing 1 or 2 FA starters and using the young guys as complementary players and depth.

 

Rotation:

 

1. FA SP.

2. Stroman.

3. FA SP/Buehrle/Hutchison

4. Norris.

5. Estrada/Sanchez/Boyd/Castro/Osuna/Taylor Cole?.

 

Lineup:

 

1. Reyes SS.

2. Donaldson 3B.

3. Bautista RF.

4. EE DH.

5. Martin C/Smoak 1B/ FA?

6. Smoak 1B/Martin C/ FA?

7. Travis 2B.

8. Saunders LF.

9. Pompey/Pillar CF.

 

Play the FA game.

 

Thanks for laying that out. I respect your perspective. I don't like the 2016 line up and the variables as much as Id like the bolster this seasons roster. Mostly because I think another year on Edwin, Reyes, Jose B and Martin is material. Love Stro but 20 MLB starts and we all have him as a front end rotation guy?

 

Our record on addressing holes meaningfully with FAs is not reliable. (sans Martin).

 

I don't have much faith in Saunders and Pompey and Pillar is a 4th OF. OF depth is an issue this season also clearly.

[RealAccountant]

The only 2 championship teams we ever had were built around offense and average rotations. Our D wasn't plus.

 

92 did have a shutdown Ward/Henke pen to hold leads.

 

Yeah average pitching

 

Also 25 years is a very long time

[nextyear]

92 team was pretty good on D - don't forget Devo. Alomar was incredible of course. 92 is probably was plus. 93 meh.

 

Morris, Stewart and Steib, Key weren't very good. They were at the end of their careers in both 92 and 93. I think Steib and Key may not have even been left on rosters? Leiter was still developing after a lot of injuries and was a reliever in 93 series. Cone was a positive in 92. We also had Guzman and Hentgen. Our 5th starters were sketchy. Average overall.

 

 

You're right, I shouldn't forget Devon White. I remember Devon White as an exceptional Center Fielder (he won 7 Gold Gloves - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devon_White_%28baseball%29). I didn't think of him as a big run producer, however when I looked up his career stats his batting was good also, especially in terms of runs scored - http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/whitede03.shtml

[ElNik2013]

Thanks for laying that out. I respect your perspective. I don't like the 2016 line up and the variables as much as Id like the bolster this seasons roster. Mostly because I think another year on Edwin, Reyes, Jose B and Martin is material. Love Stro but 20 MLB starts and we all have him as a front end rotation guy?

 

Our record on addressing holes meaningfully with FAs is not reliable. (sans Martin).

 

I don't have much faith in Saunders and Pompey and Pillar is a 4th OF. OF depth is an issue this season also clearly.

 

 

 

I don't like going all-in for half a year (or even 1 year) at the expense of future years. I'm fine with under-the-radar acquisitions for lesser prospects and/or trading for young guys with years of control, but those don't grow on trees.

 

 

So you don't think Pillar is an everyday OF, you're not sold on Travis, you think OF depth is an issue, you clearly don't think the starters are good enough, yet you think this team is close enough to trade your top prospects for a half a year of a pitcher or 2 ?

 

Also, it's true that the team hasn't played the FA game, but I think that has something to do with the team president and the vision he's laid out for the team.

 

It's freakin' time they realize overpaying in $$ only is preferable to overpaying in both $$ and prospects.

 

If they want to contend, they'll have to make compromises and overpay for a FA or 2.

[Frenchsoup]

Thanks for laying that out. I respect your perspective. I don't like the 2016 line up and the variables as much as Id like the bolster this seasons roster. Mostly because I think another year on Edwin, Reyes, Jose B and Martin is material. Love Stro but 20 MLB starts and we all have him as a front end rotation guy?

 

Our record on addressing holes meaningfully with FAs is not reliable. (sans Martin).

 

I don't have much faith in Saunders and Pompey and Pillar is a 4th OF. OF depth is an issue this season also clearly.

 

i think if you watch the games you should realize Stroman is an ace.