FanGraphs: The Blue Jays and Slugging Toward October

[TwistedLogic]

http://i.imgur.com/oT0roC2.png

I think I’ve said this before, but I’ll say it again: while most of us understand that the

gambler’s fallacy is a fallacy, sometimes it’s easy to see why so many people believe

in it. In the case of this post, take the Blue Jays. Through the season’s first two months,

they had the third-worst record in the American League, and a contender-worthy run

differential. It seemed, at that point, like better times were ahead. But instead of things

playing evenly from there, the Jays have simply ripped off 11 straight wins, rocketing

back into the playoff picture. Barely any time ago, the Jays and Red Sox were battling

for possession of not-last place in the AL East. This quickly, the Jays are back on their

feet, and the Red Sox are a disaster.

 

I don’t have a hot take. My hottest take might be this: the Jays aren’t a true-talent

162-0 team. Winning streaks are easy for analysts because we always get to know for

a fact the given team is overachieving. But there’s no better time than now to review

what the Jays have done, and to evaluate where they now stand. The situation has

changed in a jiffy. Even their own front office is probably trying to catch up.

 

 

It’s kind of funny to look at the Jays’ schedule. Obviously, over their last 11 games,

they’re 11-0, and they’ve allowed 40 runs. Over the 11 previous games, they were

5-6, and they allowed 42 runs. Offensively speaking, they went from scoring 53 times

in an 11-game stretch to scoring 88 times in the next 11-game stretch, and that’s

where the difference has been, but then there’s been almost no change in walks, or

strikeouts, or power. It’s been all about singles and timing. That’s how a decent team

can build an impressive hot streak: advantageous sequencing. The 5-6 Jays and the

11-0 Jays haven’t been real different. I can’t tell if that’s supposed to be positive or

negative; it just is.

 

Despite the streak, the Jays still aren’t in first place. They’re not even in second place,

now that I look at it. When this thing started, the Jays were five games back. After

seven consecutive wins, they were still four games back. They’ve gained more ground

since, but it’s easy to look at the standings and see that they’re still looking up. But the

standings can mislead. A better alternative to glancing at the standings: glancing at the

playoff odds. And here’s what’s happened, league-wide, since the start of June:

 

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/june-change-in-playoff-odds.png

 

Even that doesn’t fully capture things — the winning streak started in the second game

of a doubleheader, and I can’t get the playoff odds from in between games one and two.

But while Toronto remains in third place in the East, they’ve gained massive ground in

the playoff hunt. The Pirates are in second place, here, and their gain has been less

than half of the Jays’. Much of the East has been playing well lately, but no one’s played

better than Toronto, and they’ve also benefited from teams in other divisions dropping

off. I mean, it helps the rest of the East to have the Red Sox suck, but it also helps to

have the Mariners sinking.

 

That plot is what Toronto has accomplished. It’s not that an extended winning streak is

predictive, but it’s all about games in the bank, and Toronto has just about evened out.

They are still two wins below their estimated BaseRuns record, but there’s a funny twist

on that — their run differential is also substantially higher than their BaseRuns run

differential. That plot:

 

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/run-differential-blue-jays.png

 

Pretty much all of this is because of the offense, where the Jays have outpaced their

BaseRuns productivity by nearly a half-run a game. This is all just looking back, so to

sum up, in some ways the Jays have been lucky, and in other ways the Jays have been

unlucky. Things are a lot more balanced now than they were just a couple weeks ago.

 

Teams always need to be looking forward. Looking forward, what are the Jays? Are

they the team with baseball’s best run differential? Conveniently, we sort of reviewed

this a week ago. Early-season standings and performance matter, but they matter less

than even the preseason projections do. And we have updated information. Based on

that information, the Blue Jays look like a pretty decent team, but not a dominant team.

They’re projected to win 52% of their remaining games, with baseball’s highest rate of

runs scored per game, and baseball’s third-highest rate of runs allowed per game.

 

Which shouldn’t be shocking. The offense is obviously potent, even without Devon

Travis and Michael Saunders, and even with Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista

fighting little aches and pains. There’s been perhaps no better addition in baseball than

Josh Donaldson, followed closely behind on the same list by Russell Martin. Meanwhile,

people have been down on the pitching staff for months. Sadly, the pitcher the Jays

could use most is already on Toronto payroll, rehabbing an ACL tear.

 

In a sense, the Jays and Red Sox aren’t too dissimilar. Neither team has an ace, rolling

instead with adequate pitchers, hoping along the way for sufficient offensive support.

Difference is, the Jays have gotten that offensive support, while the Sox have struggled

in every area, and that’s why one team’s in the race and the other one has a mess to

untangle. They came in with similar plans. The Jays are proving the model can work.

The Sox are proving the model has flaws.

 

While Boston, though, can work out what it wants to do differently in 2016, Toronto now

gets to focus on playing well enough up to the trade deadline. A few weeks ago, I was

trying to find potential homes for a Johnny Cueto/Aroldis Chapman package, and I

settled on the Jays. Problem was, at that point, they weren’t playing well. Now they’ve

made a full recovery, making this the trade I most want to see. I know that isn’t analysis,

and I know the Reds are reluctant to give up, but I can’t imagine better fits, and from

Toronto’s perspective, this team with those arms is a championship contender. It’s

already mathematically a champion-ship contender, but now imagine them eliminating

two gaping holes.

 

The fun of the winning streak will end one of these days. Maybe it’ll even be followed by

a losing streak. Things happen. The consequences of the winning streak, though, might

last into the playoffs. In 11 games, the Jays got back into the picture. They get to focus

on the moment again, and on the moments that’ll follow. They get to think about getting

better now, because this is a team worth improving, because this is a team that could do

something big.

[S33n]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, Cueto please.

[RealAccountant]

Ugh this starting pitching

[Atothe]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, Cueto please.

 

will cost Norris, not willing to do that.

[ScientificReason]

Don't we go through this every year? The Jays have a quality run differential, their record lags, then they go on a streak and everyone gets excited and looks for reasons why this year it might be for real. The Jays fall off and then everyone blames the GM for not getting help for the team.

 

Those 1 run games have cost us, but team is legit this year IMO if AA gets a top quality arm.

[LTR]

http://s1.postimg.org/5qr4skcf2/Jose_Reyes.jpg

[CJ-Freeway]

AA, get Cueto already.

[JaysRap]

Cueto and Chapman would make us legit. If we could even re-sign Cueto on a 5 year deal I'd do it. Giving up Norris plus will hurt, but a potential rotation of:

 

1) Cueto 2) Stroman 3) Sanchez 4) Hutchison 5) Hoffman* (assuming we can still hold onto him)

 

is worth whatever else the Reds make empty from our system.

[theblujay]

100% I'll give up Norris or Sanchez for Cueto

[GD]

6 years of Norris/Sanchez if you guys think he's good for a half year of Cueto really doesn't seem wise

[BlueJayWay]

100% I'll give up Norris or Sanchez for Cueto

Me too if only I knew we would extend him.

[glory]

Don't we go through this every year? The Jays have a quality run differential, their record lags, then they go on a streak and everyone gets excited and looks for reasons why this year it might be for real. The Jays fall off and then everyone blames the GM for not getting help for the team.

 

Looks that way.

 

AA did his usual "I have 5 starters and expect them all to stay healthy" routine instead of loading up on depth like a normal GM would. He's paying the price for that, and not doing anything to help the pen.

 

The sad thing is, the offense actually is excellent, so even slightly above average pitching gets this team to the post-season. Unfortunately, they are going to finish near last in pitching, so it's .500 and the treadmill keeps on rolling along.

[IronLadle]

Cueto and Chapman would make us legit. If we could even re-sign Cueto on a 5 year deal I'd do it. Giving up Norris plus will hurt, but a potential rotation of:

 

1) Cueto 2) Stroman 3) Sanchez 4) Hutchison 5) Hoffman* (assuming we can still hold onto him)

 

is worth whatever else the Reds make empty from our system.

 

Why would Cueto re-sign this close to free agency

[JohnnyLonghorn]

Pillar cmon man

[King]

Pillar cmon man

 

wrong thread?