GDT: ST Blue Jays @ Red Sox (March 19) 1:07pm - SN590

[gruber92]

why bring him up?

 

Because Shields doesn't any fancy K/9 numbers, yet was sought after heavily.

[gruber92]

Hey, Billy Beane and his crew seem to think Graveman has a bright MLB future.

[Angrioter]

Hey, Billy Beane and his crew seem to think Graveman has a bright MLB future.

 

http://ctrlv.cz/shots/2015/03/20/vaz8.png

[Laika]

Hey, Billy Beane and his crew seem to think Graveman has a bright MLB future.

 

Insert line about expectations + Insert BB% vs FIP figure

[saskjayfan]

There's no cutoff but it's hard to be good with a below average swinging strike %. Here's the bottom 20 (last number is SwStr%). Sanchez' percentage was 6.2% out of the bullpen last year.

 

This is just qualified SP. Some good and bad.

 

1 Kevin Correia - - - 31.1 % 67.2 % 46.4 % 79.2 % 92.6 % 87.4 % 42.2 % 58.3 % 5.7 %

2 Bartolo Colon - - - 31.0 % 64.0 % 47.6 % 79.8 % 91.1 % 87.5 % 50.1 % 65.4 % 5.9 %

3 Jeremy Guthrie Royals 29.0 % 64.9 % 46.1 % 77.4 % 90.8 % 86.4 % 47.7 % 62.6 % 6.1 %

4 Scott Feldman - - - 29.0 % 62.9 % 43.9 % 72.5 % 91.3 % 84.3 % 44.0 % 58.8 % 6.6 %

5 Mark Buehrle Blue Jays 30.7 % 64.8 % 44.7 % 77.6 % 90.0 % 85.0 % 41.2 % 59.0 % 6.6 %

6 Mike Leake Reds 30.9 % 63.8 % 45.4 % 72.3 % 92.0 % 84.5 % 44.1 % 59.5 % 6.8 %

7 Yovani Gallardo Brewers 27.2 % 63.0 % 41.8 % 69.6 % 91.5 % 83.1 % 40.7 % 56.5 % 6.9 %

8 Colby Lewis Rangers 31.7 % 62.9 % 46.1 % 74.2 % 90.6 % 84.5 % 46.0 % 65.9 % 6.9 %

9 Kyle Kendrick Phillies 31.2 % 65.1 % 46.0 % 76.8 % 89.6 % 84.7 % 43.5 % 63.1 % 6.9 %

10 Chris Young Mariners 31.4 % 66.1 % 46.6 % 74.4 % 90.1 % 84.2 % 43.9 % 58.9 % 7.1 %

11 Travis Wood Cubs 29.7 % 67.2 % 47.0 % 77.2 % 88.4 % 84.6 % 46.1 % 59.4 % 7.1 %

12 Doug Fister - - - 34.0 % 57.7 % 44.8 % 74.8 % 89.6 % 83.5 % 45.6 % 61.6 % 7.2 %

13 Eric Stults Padres 33.5 % 63.6 % 46.0 % 75.8 % 90.0 % 83.9 % 41.5 % 62.4 % 7.3 %

14 Jon Niese Mets 29.5 % 63.7 % 46.3 % 69.8 % 90.6 % 83.8 % 49.0 % 62.4 % 7.3 %

15 Chris Tillman Orioles 28.9 % 67.6 % 46.8 % 75.2 % 87.8 % 83.6 % 46.4 % 57.5 % 7.4 %

16 Brandon McCarthy - - - 36.9 % 65.2 % 50.5 % 74.8 % 90.6 % 84.6 % 48.1 % 67.5 % 7.6 %

17 Kyle Lohse Brewers 31.8 % 64.4 % 46.1 % 71.6 % 90.2 % 83.0 % 43.8 % 65.2 % 7.7 %

18 C.J. Wilson Angels 26.2 % 58.5 % 40.0 % 63.6 % 89.9 % 80.0 % 42.7 % 59.3 % 7.7 %

19 Aaron Harang - - - 31.1 % 67.8 % 47.8 % 70.9 % 89.9 % 83.2 % 45.6 % 59.1 % 7.9 %

20 Tom Koehler Marlins 28.0 % 65.2 % 45.2 % 66.6 % 90.1 % 82.2 % 46.1 % 59.3 % 7.9 %

 

This is minimum 90 IP. Lots of garbage.

 

1 Burke Badenhop - - - 24.8 % 59.5 % 40.9 % 77.1 % 94.3 % 88.8 % 46.5 % 63.0 % 4.5 %

2 Vance Worley - - - 31.1 % 66.0 % 47.1 % 82.5 % 92.6 % 89.0 % 45.8 % 61.4 % 5.0 %

3 Lucas Harrell Astros 27.9 % 57.8 % 39.1 % 78.5 % 93.0 % 86.6 % 37.6 % 53.6 % 5.1 %

4 Mike Pelfrey Twins 26.7 % 66.8 % 43.8 % 78.1 % 93.2 % 87.9 % 42.5 % 54.4 % 5.2 %

5 Jake Westbrook Cardinals 27.1 % 66.8 % 44.0 % 74.7 % 94.8 % 87.7 % 42.6 % 59.1 % 5.3 %

6 Kevin Correia - - - 31.1 % 67.2 % 46.4 % 79.2 % 92.6 % 87.4 % 42.2 % 58.3 % 5.7 %

7 Scott Diamond Twins 28.4 % 66.6 % 45.6 % 75.4 % 93.3 % 87.1 % 44.9 % 58.2 % 5.7 %

8 Scott Carroll White Sox 27.5 % 63.6 % 43.2 % 76.1 % 91.9 % 86.2 % 43.5 % 60.6 % 5.8 %

9 David Phelps Yankees 24.3 % 60.6 % 39.8 % 75.1 % 90.3 % 85.0 % 42.7 % 61.2 % 5.8 %

10 Bartolo Colon - - - 31.0 % 64.0 % 47.6 % 79.8 % 91.1 % 87.5 % 50.1 % 65.4 % 5.9 %

11 Joe Saunders - - - 27.9 % 64.0 % 42.6 % 73.8 % 93.4 % 85.8 % 40.7 % 60.0 % 5.9 %

12 Jonathan Pettibone Phillies 27.4 % 66.3 % 44.8 % 76.7 % 90.5 % 85.8 % 44.7 % 59.7 % 6.1 %

13 Jeremy Guthrie Royals 29.0 % 64.9 % 46.1 % 77.4 % 90.8 % 86.4 % 47.7 % 62.6 % 6.1 %

14 Bronson Arroyo - - - 29.6 % 60.5 % 44.7 % 74.3 % 92.3 % 86.2 % 48.7 % 66.3 % 6.1 %

15 Dan Otero Athletics 35.6 % 64.5 % 48.8 % 76.5 % 93.8 % 87.0 % 45.6 % 67.5 % 6.2 %

16 Brandon Cumpton Pirates 32.0 % 64.5 % 47.0 % 75.1 % 92.8 % 86.3 % 46.2 % 62.1 % 6.3 %

17 Nick Martinez Rangers 26.9 % 64.8 % 42.6 % 75.1 % 90.6 % 84.8 % 41.4 % 52.8 % 6.3 %

18 Jarred Cosart - - - 26.9 % 61.8 % 41.7 % 71.7 % 92.2 % 84.5 % 42.3 % 56.7 % 6.4 %

19 Paul Maholm - - - 28.4 % 63.3 % 43.9 % 72.2 % 92.0 % 84.9 % 44.4 % 61.2 % 6.5 %

20 Scott Feldman - - - 29.0 % 62.9 % 43.9 % 72.5 % 91.3 % 84.3 % 44.0 % 58.8 % 6.6 %

 

Henderson Alvarez had a 7.1% swinging strike percentage last year which was the highest of his career. His swinging strike percentage the year before we traded him was 5.1%. All this damning of aaron Sanchez is ridiculous. Its based off 33 innings. Some of you want to trade him for a new mascot. You hate the fact that people like the blue jays coaching staff are wiling to make qualitative judgements and say the kids got a future drives you stats nerds crazy. 33 innings is not a statically significant sample size to reference his swinging strike percentage, especially when you are talking about a young kid constantly changing and developing. The kid does some special things with the baseball. He either will develop or he won't, but for all you nerds who think you know exactly what Sanchez is and will be are just full of yourselves.

[King]

jesus

[Laika]

Henderson Alvarez had a 7.1% swinging strike percentage last year which was the highest of his career. His swinging strike percentage the year before we traded him was 5.1%. All this damning of aaron Sanchez is ridiculous. Its based off 33 innings. Some of you want to trade him for a new mascot. You hate the fact that people like the blue jays coaching staff are wiling to make qualitative judgements and say the kids got a future drives you stats nerds crazy. 33 innings is not a statically significant sample size to reference his swinging strike percentage, especially when you are talking about a young kid constantly changing and developing. The kid does some special things with the baseball. He either will develop or he won't, but for all you nerds who think you know exactly what Sanchez is and will be are just full of yourselves.

 

Holy f***

[saskjayfan]

jesus

 

you a religious man...lol. If I had a nickel for every time the stats nerds have said, Sanchez projects to be this, or steamer projects Sanchez to be that.....the margin of error for projecting Sanchez insanely high. He could be anywhere from really good to really s*****. That's what you get with young players developing. Not everyone is on the Sanchez hate train, but I'm sick of the doom and gloom. We're still in spring training. We haven't seen any actual results. It's one thing to say you don't think a player is going to be good, but to say he isn't going to be good and anyone who thinks he will be good is dumn. That's just ridiculous, especially when you're talking about a player with quality raw tools.

[King]

you a religious man...lol. If I had a nickel for every time the stats nerds have said, Sanchez projects to be this, or steamer projects Sanchez to be that.....the margin of error for projecting Sanchez insanely high. He could be anywhere from really good to really s*****. That's what you get with young players developing. Not everyone is on the Sanchez hate train, but I'm sick of the doom and gloom. We're still in spring training. We haven't seen any actual results. It's one thing to say you don't think a player is going to be good, but to say he isn't going to be good and anyone who thinks he will be good is dumn. That's just ridiculous, especially when you're talking about a player with quality raw tools.

 

http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/nwld.gif

[gruber92]

There are two ways you can assess Sanchez's lack of missing bats. Obviously the more K's the less chance the ball is put in play, thus reducing any chance of the batter reaching safely or creating a positive out. On the other hand, inducing weak contact also minimizes pitch counts and two outs can be recorded with one pitch. I think these scenarios wipe each other out and the end result is the same. Don't forget, look at all the strike out pitchers around the league that had TJS already and many more to come. Getting through seven innings on 80-90 pitches will serve the player and the team a lot better vs a higher K type who will probably burn through 100-110, unless he's elite of course.

[Spanky99]

Holy f***

 

lol

[gruber92]

Do you play to win or play to minimize pitch counts? Although strikeouts don't really raise pitch counts anyway. A strikeout is a positive event 99.9% of the time for a pitcher and putting the ball in play is often negative. There's only one way to assess the matter of strikeouts.

 

You'll need to provide proof that strikeouts -> TJS.

 

I don't have exact figures but it would be hard to believe that the percentage of TJS are not higher with strike out type pitchers. Darvish, Strasburg, our own Hoffman, Osuna. I'm too tired to look it up right now but those are a few that I can think of,obviously that doesn't mean anything.

[NorthOf49]

I don't have exact figures but it would be hard to believe that the percentage of TJS are not higher with strike out type pitchers. Darvish, Strasburg, our own Hoffman, Osuna. I'm too tired to look it up right now but those are a few that I can think of,obviously that doesn't mean anything.

I've run a regression before on velocity/TJS that turned up nothing. Could check strikeouts tomorrow but I'd expect the same.

[TRM]

I don't have exact figures but it would be hard to believe that the percentage of TJS are not higher with strike out type pitchers. Darvish, Strasburg, our own Hoffman, Osuna. I'm too tired to look it up right now but those are a few that I can think of,obviously that doesn't mean anything.

 

holy f***

[Spanky99]

TJ has to do more with mechanics, not Ks.

 

Or, you know, throwing overhand...

[Spanky99]

holy f***

 

lol

[Jimcanuck]

33 IP isn't too small of a sample for SwStr.

 

it is for a guy still learning to pitch

 

jays seem to believe sanchez can learn on the job and be above replacement.... hutchison made a few tweaks and his K's increased... can see sanchez doing same

[Nafro]

Or, you know, throwing overhand...

 

No s***, throwing a baseball is so literally biomechanically destructive on an arm. I'm still waiting for a pitcher's arm to literally fly off mid pitch someday. All kidding aside, our bodies did not evolve to "throw" projectiles overhand. Pitcher's arm's are going to break down, even with perfect mechanics.

[Deadpool]

No s***, throwing a baseball is so literally biomechanically destructive on an arm. I'm still waiting for a pitcher's arm to literally fly off mid pitch someday. All kidding aside, our bodies did not evolve to "throw" projectiles overhand. Pitcher's arm's are going to break down, even with perfect mechanics.

 

[Spanky99]

 

Well played, Brando!