GDT: ST Blue Jays @ Red Sox (March 19) 1:07pm - SN590

[gruber92]

Mariano Rivera is the ONLY pitcher I would ever call a true inducer of weak contact (BABIP beater).

 

Then again everybody here would have gave up their left nut for James Shields.

[King]

Then again everybody here would have gave up their left nut for James Shields.

 

James Shields had an above average SwStr% as a SP last year

[NorthOf49]

Then again everybody here would have gave up their left nut for James Shields.

What do you mean? James Shields is really good.

[King]

What do you mean? James Shields is really good.

 

Gruber knows how to rub The Howies in all the wrong places. s***ing on PD stats and James Shields.

[NorthOf49]

Gruber knows how to rub The Howies in all the wrong places. s***ing on PD stats and James Shields.

I'm taking this as a personal affront.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Should I be a Lil concerned Martin is only batting .182 inching ever so closer to the JPA line?

[HERPDERP]

Shields changeup is a swing and miss machine. Hes god around here. Would have loved James Shields for a veriety of reasons.

 

I still have PTSD from all those Kelly Johnson - James Shield match-ups.

[HERPDERP]

Should I be a Lil concerned Martin is only batting .182 inch ever so closer to the JPA line?

 

I'm not concerned about it since it's ST, but the fact that he hit under .230 for three straight years across 1400 AB lurks in my mind.

[JaysFan75]

I would be happy with that too if he walks less than 3/9IP.

 

Couldn't agree more. I think that the walks have been a bigger problem than his SwStr%. Also, it is possible that his walk rate from the end of last season was the result of some improvements he's made and not a fluke. Only time will tell, but I think it's premature to write him off just because he walked too many guys in the minors.

[o2cui2i]

Average speed with some smarts. Instincts apparently help him on the bases and in the field.

 

Gose was proof that speed is useless for stupid base runners. smarter with above average speed is better than fast as lightening but stupid like a Gose.

[Laika]

Couldn't agree more. I think that the walks have been a bigger problem than his SwStr%. Also, it is possible that his walk rate from the end of last season was the result of some improvements he's made and not a fluke. Only time will tell, but I think it's premature to write him off just because he walked too many guys in the minors.

 

Really what you care about is K%-BB%.

 

He can get better at the former, decrease the latter, or both.

[gruber92]

Gruber knows how to rub The Howies in all the wrong places. s***ing on PD stats and James Shields.

 

I'm not s***ing on Shields, I like him as a SP.

[King]

I'm not s***ing on Shields, I like him as a SP.

 

why bring him up?

[Deadpool]

So... uhhh.. we win?

[Dylan]

So... uhhh.. we win?

 

I'm officially bored of ST. bring on the real thing!

[JaysFan75]

SwStr% correlates with walks too.

 

That may be true, but there are plenty of exceptions: Mark Buehrle, Henderson Alvarez, Doug Fister, Bartolo Calon, etc...

[L54]

I'm officially bored of ST. bring on the real thing!

 

Amen. I haven't even watched a game yet, it's one of the most boring times of the year for me.

[L54]

Is it accurate to say that a decrease in BB/9 for Sanchez would be equivalent to increasing his K/9?

[Dylan]

Amen. I haven't even watched a game yet, it's one of the most boring times of the year for me.

 

Always feels like the longest time. Watching bench players, only listening to radio and praying for no injuries will do that.

[L54]

I'll tune to watch top prospects or new players, after that it's pretty boring.

 

Agreed my friend. I just can't be bothered to watch other teams' equals to Ryan Goins.

[JaysFan75]

Well it's not the only thing that does. High BIP/pitch also does.

 

That would of course make a lot of sense. Again, there are guys who have low walk rates, low SwStr%, and produce good numbers over the course of their careers. They may not be the norm, but they do exist. Sanchez may never be one of these pitchers, but I think there is a decent chance that he will.

[HERPDERP]

Is it accurate to say that a decrease in BB/9 for Sanchez would be equivalent to increasing his K/9?

 

They're not correlated. A decrease in BB/9 means that instead of walking the guy, he is allowing more hits, striking guys out, or generating more fly/ground outs.

 

So a decrease in BB/9 could just mean he's putting his strikes more in the zone so that it entices the player to swing at it.

[L54]

Lowering just BB/9 would actually decrease K/9 because there would be less batters per 9 innings and therefore less K/9.

Lowering walks has a similar effect to increasing K's though, yes. One less walk would be better than one more K though (FIP coefficient 3 for BB and 2 for K)

 

This is what I was wondering. Thanks.

[saskjayfan]

He looked like s***. To many ground balls not enough swinging strikes. Probably should just release him.

 

exactly what percentage of swinging strikes must a pitcher have to be considered a quality starter

[King]

exactly what percentage of swinging strikes must a pitcher have to be considered a quality starter

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=5&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

League average SwStr% in 2014 was 8.8% for starting pitchers.

[Laika]

exactly what percentage of swinging strikes must a pitcher have to be considered a quality starter

 

seven

[NorthOf49]

exactly what percentage of swinging strikes must a pitcher have to be considered a quality starter

2014 SwStr% vs. FIP among qualified pitchers:

 

http://i.imgur.com/2MR0OQ3.png

 

So 7% corresponds to about a 4 FIP.

[Laika]

exactly what percentage of swinging strikes must a pitcher have to be considered a quality starter

 

There's no cutoff but it's hard to be good with a below average swinging strike %. Here's the bottom 20 (last number is SwStr%). Sanchez' percentage was 6.2% out of the bullpen last year.

 

This is just qualified SP. Some good and bad.

 

1 Kevin Correia - - - 31.1 % 67.2 % 46.4 % 79.2 % 92.6 % 87.4 % 42.2 % 58.3 % 5.7 %

2 Bartolo Colon - - - 31.0 % 64.0 % 47.6 % 79.8 % 91.1 % 87.5 % 50.1 % 65.4 % 5.9 %

3 Jeremy Guthrie Royals 29.0 % 64.9 % 46.1 % 77.4 % 90.8 % 86.4 % 47.7 % 62.6 % 6.1 %

4 Scott Feldman - - - 29.0 % 62.9 % 43.9 % 72.5 % 91.3 % 84.3 % 44.0 % 58.8 % 6.6 %

5 Mark Buehrle Blue Jays 30.7 % 64.8 % 44.7 % 77.6 % 90.0 % 85.0 % 41.2 % 59.0 % 6.6 %

6 Mike Leake Reds 30.9 % 63.8 % 45.4 % 72.3 % 92.0 % 84.5 % 44.1 % 59.5 % 6.8 %

7 Yovani Gallardo Brewers 27.2 % 63.0 % 41.8 % 69.6 % 91.5 % 83.1 % 40.7 % 56.5 % 6.9 %

8 Colby Lewis Rangers 31.7 % 62.9 % 46.1 % 74.2 % 90.6 % 84.5 % 46.0 % 65.9 % 6.9 %

9 Kyle Kendrick Phillies 31.2 % 65.1 % 46.0 % 76.8 % 89.6 % 84.7 % 43.5 % 63.1 % 6.9 %

10 Chris Young Mariners 31.4 % 66.1 % 46.6 % 74.4 % 90.1 % 84.2 % 43.9 % 58.9 % 7.1 %

11 Travis Wood Cubs 29.7 % 67.2 % 47.0 % 77.2 % 88.4 % 84.6 % 46.1 % 59.4 % 7.1 %

12 Doug Fister - - - 34.0 % 57.7 % 44.8 % 74.8 % 89.6 % 83.5 % 45.6 % 61.6 % 7.2 %

13 Eric Stults Padres 33.5 % 63.6 % 46.0 % 75.8 % 90.0 % 83.9 % 41.5 % 62.4 % 7.3 %

14 Jon Niese Mets 29.5 % 63.7 % 46.3 % 69.8 % 90.6 % 83.8 % 49.0 % 62.4 % 7.3 %

15 Chris Tillman Orioles 28.9 % 67.6 % 46.8 % 75.2 % 87.8 % 83.6 % 46.4 % 57.5 % 7.4 %

16 Brandon McCarthy - - - 36.9 % 65.2 % 50.5 % 74.8 % 90.6 % 84.6 % 48.1 % 67.5 % 7.6 %

17 Kyle Lohse Brewers 31.8 % 64.4 % 46.1 % 71.6 % 90.2 % 83.0 % 43.8 % 65.2 % 7.7 %

18 C.J. Wilson Angels 26.2 % 58.5 % 40.0 % 63.6 % 89.9 % 80.0 % 42.7 % 59.3 % 7.7 %

19 Aaron Harang - - - 31.1 % 67.8 % 47.8 % 70.9 % 89.9 % 83.2 % 45.6 % 59.1 % 7.9 %

20 Tom Koehler Marlins 28.0 % 65.2 % 45.2 % 66.6 % 90.1 % 82.2 % 46.1 % 59.3 % 7.9 %

 

This is minimum 90 IP. Lots of garbage.

 

1 Burke Badenhop - - - 24.8 % 59.5 % 40.9 % 77.1 % 94.3 % 88.8 % 46.5 % 63.0 % 4.5 %

2 Vance Worley - - - 31.1 % 66.0 % 47.1 % 82.5 % 92.6 % 89.0 % 45.8 % 61.4 % 5.0 %

3 Lucas Harrell Astros 27.9 % 57.8 % 39.1 % 78.5 % 93.0 % 86.6 % 37.6 % 53.6 % 5.1 %

4 Mike Pelfrey Twins 26.7 % 66.8 % 43.8 % 78.1 % 93.2 % 87.9 % 42.5 % 54.4 % 5.2 %

5 Jake Westbrook Cardinals 27.1 % 66.8 % 44.0 % 74.7 % 94.8 % 87.7 % 42.6 % 59.1 % 5.3 %

6 Kevin Correia - - - 31.1 % 67.2 % 46.4 % 79.2 % 92.6 % 87.4 % 42.2 % 58.3 % 5.7 %

7 Scott Diamond Twins 28.4 % 66.6 % 45.6 % 75.4 % 93.3 % 87.1 % 44.9 % 58.2 % 5.7 %

8 Scott Carroll White Sox 27.5 % 63.6 % 43.2 % 76.1 % 91.9 % 86.2 % 43.5 % 60.6 % 5.8 %

9 David Phelps Yankees 24.3 % 60.6 % 39.8 % 75.1 % 90.3 % 85.0 % 42.7 % 61.2 % 5.8 %

10 Bartolo Colon - - - 31.0 % 64.0 % 47.6 % 79.8 % 91.1 % 87.5 % 50.1 % 65.4 % 5.9 %

11 Joe Saunders - - - 27.9 % 64.0 % 42.6 % 73.8 % 93.4 % 85.8 % 40.7 % 60.0 % 5.9 %

12 Jonathan Pettibone Phillies 27.4 % 66.3 % 44.8 % 76.7 % 90.5 % 85.8 % 44.7 % 59.7 % 6.1 %

13 Jeremy Guthrie Royals 29.0 % 64.9 % 46.1 % 77.4 % 90.8 % 86.4 % 47.7 % 62.6 % 6.1 %

14 Bronson Arroyo - - - 29.6 % 60.5 % 44.7 % 74.3 % 92.3 % 86.2 % 48.7 % 66.3 % 6.1 %

15 Dan Otero Athletics 35.6 % 64.5 % 48.8 % 76.5 % 93.8 % 87.0 % 45.6 % 67.5 % 6.2 %

16 Brandon Cumpton Pirates 32.0 % 64.5 % 47.0 % 75.1 % 92.8 % 86.3 % 46.2 % 62.1 % 6.3 %

17 Nick Martinez Rangers 26.9 % 64.8 % 42.6 % 75.1 % 90.6 % 84.8 % 41.4 % 52.8 % 6.3 %

18 Jarred Cosart - - - 26.9 % 61.8 % 41.7 % 71.7 % 92.2 % 84.5 % 42.3 % 56.7 % 6.4 %

19 Paul Maholm - - - 28.4 % 63.3 % 43.9 % 72.2 % 92.0 % 84.9 % 44.4 % 61.2 % 6.5 %

20 Scott Feldman - - - 29.0 % 62.9 % 43.9 % 72.5 % 91.3 % 84.3 % 44.0 % 58.8 % 6.6 %

[saskjayfan]

2014 SwStr% vs. FIP among qualified pitchers:

 

http://i.imgur.com/2MR0OQ3.png

 

So 7% corresponds to about a 4 FIP.

 

and what was Aarons swinging strike percentage in the minors

[RealAccountant]

2014 SwStr% vs. FIP among qualified pitchers:

 

http://i.imgur.com/2MR0OQ3.png

 

So 7% corresponds to about a 4 FIP.

 

Wow that is pretty damning evidence