Strasburg reportedly available; make hypothetical offers within

[Orgfiller]

wat

 

Jk, I don't know a lot about Alcantara but I would guess someone will offer greater value than him.

[L54]

So Jeff Sullivan did a write-up about Strasburg's trade value on FanGraphs today (here), and while I don't really care about the article or the topic itself, I just wanted to mention how crazy an article like that would have been had it been written about Josh Donaldson, if his trade availability had been made public before he was moved. If Strasburg is worth all that with two years of control, coming off 7.6 wins over the past two years, projected for 7-8 more wins over the next two, it's kind of feasible to say that Donaldson would have been worth nearly twice as much, no?

 

Man, the Jays made a good f***ing move.

 

Great point. A good f***ing move is right.

 

Following your logic, I would have to agree. It's probably not as simple as that, but your point still stands. AA made a great move to acquire an elite talent.

[Captain Adama]

Jk, I don't know a lot about Alcantara but I would guess someone will offer greater value than him.

 

Not sure how good Alcantara will be, he offers a good power/speed combo, but his hitting is suspect. Coming from a guy who owns him on his fantasy team.

[BTS]

Jk, I don't know a lot about Alcantara but I would guess someone will offer greater value than him.

 

Alcantara suxxx

[Orgfiller]

Alcantara suxxx

 

This is what I assumed.

[GD]

Great point. A good f***ing move is right.

 

Following your logic, I would have to agree. It's probably not as simple as that, but your point still stands. AA made a great move to acquire an elite talent.

 

It kinda is as simple as that.

 

[TABLE=width: 360]

[TR]

[TD][TABLE=width: 424]

[TR]

[TD]Asset[/TD]

[TD]Year 1 Value[/TD]

[TD]Year 2[/TD]

[TD]Year 3[/TD]

[TD]Year 4[/TD]

[TD=align: right] Total[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]WAR Value[/TD]

[TD=align: right]8.20[/TD]

[TD=align: right]8.94[/TD]

[TD=align: right]9.74[/TD]

[TD=align: right]10.62[/TD]

[TD=align: right] N/A[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Donaldson[/TD]

[TD=align: right]45.92[/TD]

[TD=align: right]45.58[/TD]

[TD=align: right]44.82[/TD]

[TD=align: right]43.54[/TD]

[TD=align: right] 179.86[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Strasburg[/TD]

[TD=align: right]31.16[/TD]

[TD=align: right]38.43[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.00[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.00[/TD]

[TD=align: right]69.59

 

[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

With a 0.5/year change (up for Stras, down for JD), yeah, Donaldson pretty much is. Donaldson is far better than Stras right now and has 2 extra years of likely equal production.

 

For those graphically inclined:

 

http://i.imgur.com/7I0ZRlx.png

 

Reader's digest: (Great player x 4 years) ~= (Good player * 2 years) x 2

[Laika]

stuff

 

Neat!

 

But, be wary. By the same projected WAR * $/WAR framework, Brett Lawrie is worth more than Strasburg. Would the market agree? Probably not, but I don't know.

 

Also, your figure would maybe get the point across better if you did accumulated value instead of yearly.

[GD]

Neat!

 

But, be wary. By the same projected WAR * $/WAR framework, Brett Lawrie is worth more than Strasburg. Would the market agree? Probably not, but I don't know.

 

Also, your figure would maybe get the point across better if you did accumulated value instead of yearly.

 

I didn't know how to efficiently represent the sum within the graph so I just left it bolded in the table.

 

Also, a.) Brett Lawrie's projections assume health which he hasn't demonstrated is in his skillset (Yeah, yeah, TJS for Stras), and b.) It isn't a rational market, for sure.

[Laika]

Also, a.) Brett Lawrie's projections assume health which he hasn't demonstrated is in his skillset (Yeah, yeah, TJS for Stras), and b.) It isn't a rational market, for sure.

 

Or c) the market is more rational than you think and it simply doesn't agree than mean projected WAR * $/WAR is all encompassing as you (we) think.

 

Ex. With Strasburg, the market could care about and give value to things like:

 

- Reasonable upside WAR (say 95th percentile WAR)

- Having an true Ace in the playoffs?

- Length of fingers?

[Boxcar]

Alcantara suxxx

 

was waiting for this

[Laika]

Alcantara is a nice little player but he's no Almora.

[TheHurl]

in last year's trade value top 50 Donaldson came 17th and Strasburg 26th.

[NorthOf49]

was waiting for this

It's interesting to see how quickly Alcantara and Soler deviated in terms of career outlook this past season.

 

At midseason, both were ripping through the minors as top ~30 prospects with relatively similar amounts of risk. Then, Alcantara was called up and got completely exposed, both by peripheral and performance stats. Soler was called up and crushed it while alleviating the approach concerns that surrounded him.

 

They turned into totally different assets over the course of a few months.

Edited January 20, 2015 by NorthOf49

[GD]

Or c) the market is more rational than you think and it simply doesn't agree than mean projected WAR * $/WAR is all encompassing as you (we) think.

 

Ex. With Strasburg, the market could care about and give value to things like:

 

- Reasonable upside WAR (say 95th percentile WAR)

- Having an true Ace in the playoffs?

- Length of fingers?

 

-Reasonable upside WAR goes to Donaldson (demonstrated >> in favor of Donaldson)

-I wouldn't call those last two rational (new market inefficiency - Finger Length Above Average? park adjusted ​obviously)

 

But yes, touché.

[Boxcar]

Alcantara is a nice little player but he's no Almora.

 

I can't wait till his debut. I hear we haven't seen bat to ball skill like his since Tony Gwynn.

[Laika]

I can't wait till his debut. I hear we haven't seen bat to ball skill like his since Tony Gwynn.

 

Man I hope Almora maxes out and becomes the white Adam Jones just so we can shovel it in your face all day every day

[GeorgiaPeach]

Stroman, Pompey, Norris

 

I wouldn't do that.

 

I can't create an offer I'd feel comfortable sending for Strasburg the Nats would agree to.

[BTS]

Boxy has so much riding on Winker and Almora.

[Laika]

It's interesting to see how quickly Alcantara and Soler deviated in terms of career outlook this past season.

 

At midseason, both were ripping through the minors as top ~30 prospects with relatively amounts of risk. Then, Alcantara was called up and got completely exposed, both by peripheral and performance stats. Soler was called up and crushed it while alleviating the approach concerns that surrounded him.

 

They turned into totally different assets over the course of a few months.

 

I think Alcantara, in terms of public perception, is a victim of circumstance. If he was in some organization like Toronto with a glaring 2B hole he'd be viewed as a 2BOTF and a lot of people would care less about the projected OBP, since he can conceivably go 15/20 with a decent hit tool and play the middle infield. But in Chicago there's less than no room on the infield so the backdrop for his skillset is very different. Can he even play CF? Who knows. Not everyone slides down and around the spectrum with the saber-grace of a young Ben Zobrist.

[Laika]

I wouldn't do that.

 

I can't create an offer I'd feel comfortable sending for Strasburg the Nats would agree to.

 

Try! Just move along the line until you get to some point where you are as comfortable as possible + you think Washington might click 'accept', depending on Rizzo's mood.

[King]

David Cooper + Justin Jackson + Kevin Ahrens

[Captain Adama]

David Cooper + Justin Jackson + Kevin Ahrens

 

Add Chip Cannon and you got a deal.

[GD]

Maybe throw in Eric Arce.

[Deadpool]

Stroman, Sanchez, Norris, and Pompey for Harper and a reliever.

 

I wouldn't f*** this deal with YOUR dick.

[GD]

I wouldn't f*** this deal with YOUR dick.

 

lmfao

[RealAccountant]

What about Ricky Romero, Gabe Gross, and Kevin Witt?

 

How about kyle drabek and Travis snider

[BTS]

I wouldn't f*** this deal with YOUR dick.

 

wat

[L54]

It kinda is as simple as that.

 

[TABLE=width: 360]

[TR]

[TD][TABLE=width: 424]

[TR]

[TD]Asset[/TD]

[TD]Year 1 Value[/TD]

[TD]Year 2[/TD]

[TD]Year 3[/TD]

[TD]Year 4[/TD]

[TD=align: right] Total[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]WAR Value[/TD]

[TD=align: right]8.20[/TD]

[TD=align: right]8.94[/TD]

[TD=align: right]9.74[/TD]

[TD=align: right]10.62[/TD]

[TD=align: right] N/A[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Donaldson[/TD]

[TD=align: right]45.92[/TD]

[TD=align: right]45.58[/TD]

[TD=align: right]44.82[/TD]

[TD=align: right]43.54[/TD]

[TD=align: right] 179.86[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]Strasburg[/TD]

[TD=align: right]31.16[/TD]

[TD=align: right]38.43[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.00[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.00[/TD]

[TD=align: right]69.59

 

[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

With a 0.5/year change (up for Stras, down for JD), yeah, Donaldson pretty much is. Donaldson is far better than Stras right now and has 2 extra years of likely equal production.

 

For those graphically inclined:

 

http://i.imgur.com/7I0ZRlx.png

 

Reader's digest: (Great player x 4 years) ~= (Good player * 2 years) x 2

 

I understand the math behind it all. My point was that someone with more knowledge than me could probably make a relevant point and an arguement about age, Donaldson having already peaked, Stras not having peaked yet, etc.

[GD]

I understand the math behind it all. My point was that someone with more knowledge than me could probably make a relevant point and an arguement about age, Donaldson having already peaked, Stras not having peaked yet, etc.

 

Stras is 26 or 27, I think. Idk how much peak he's got left. Obviously he's got many productive years left if all is well with help (hopefully), but that kinda age isn't typically when pitchers make big gains.

[TwistedLogic]

He probably has the best arsenal in all of baseball (for a starter), and it's not like he walks the ballpark every other day. He really is as good as they say. The injury concern is very real but that applies to every pitcher.

 

Like I said, I do think he's an ace -- I think he's an incredible pitcher that is probably going to continue to get better. What I don't believe is that he should get the biggest pitching contract in history, while knowing that there is a very strong chance that he will.

 

I understand the math behind it all. My point was that someone with more knowledge than me could probably make a relevant point and an arguement about age, Donaldson having already peaked, Stras not having peaked yet, etc.

 

Where Donaldson lacks vs Strasburg (age, higher salary in years 3 and 4 of arb) he compensates for in durability. In terms of trade value, Donaldson isn't nearly the injury risk that Strasburg is, and plays a less volatile position.

 

Donaldson just turned 29, while Strasburg will be turning 27 around the all-star break. There's only a difference of 2 years and change, hardly a huge gap. Donaldson's age is where most guys hit free agency and command 7-10 year contracts. Strasburg will hit free agency at the same age and probably pick up an 8 year deal.

 

Imagine Donaldson just hit free agency at the age of 29 and we got him on a 4 year 50M contract. Yeah I don't think anyone would be worried about decline on a deal like that.