Would you rather employ Stroman, Tanaka, Porcello, Archer or Cobb?

[LongTimeReader]

I think peak years for position players is 26-28, but I believe pitchers actually peak earlier. Can't remember where I read it though, so I could be wrong. Regardless, I can't see how being older is ever a benefit when projecting future performance.

 

The argument I'm making is about the effectiveness of those projections, older players with more playing time are going to have more confidence in their projections.

[LongTimeReader]

Yes, but the argument is that Tanaka's confidence bars should be very similar to Stroman.

Just because confidence levels are lower doesn't mean you shouldn't trust them, it just means they could be a lot worse or a lot better, but the average is still the projection.

 

Tanaka's injury aside if I were to bet on either ones projections I would take Tanaka's ove Stroman's any day... consecutive years of dominance at the highest level in Japan is not the same as a young kid working his way up through the minors with one successful (shorter) stint in the majors.

[Hipfan]

Tanaka's injury aside if I were to bet on either ones projections I would take Tanaka's ove Stroman's any day... consecutive years of dominance at the highest level in Japan is not the same as a young kid working his way up through the minors with one successful (shorter) stint in the majors.

 

Unfortunately you can't put his injury aside; he is a major injury risk because of his elbow. Yes, Stroman may have something come up, but that is a given for any player. Tanaka's injury isn't just a possibility, it's reality. What happens if he totally blows out his elbow this year. Then it's TJ surgery, which is a minimum 12 month recovery. So let's say he pitches 1/2 the season, blows out his elbow, and doesn't come back until half way through 2016, which would likely be at less than 100%. That's 1.5 seasons lost in 3 years, and not a very good return on a very large investment. Maybe he survives the whole year without injuring his elbow, but at some point it's going to blow.

 

I think Tanaka has a higher ceiling than Stroman, but for me, the injury risk is too high for him, and if I was picking someone from the above list to pitch in my rotation for the next 5 years, I'd pick Stroman because he is the safer bet, even if he isn't the better pitcher.

[Deadpool]

Tanaka is older and has established himself as a consistent great pitcher at the highest level (in the Japanese leagues). You don't need projections to quality him.

 

Wait, did he establish himself at the highest level, or in the Japanese leagues? Because those are two very, very different things...

[LongTimeReader]

Wait, did he establish himself at the highest level, or in the Japanese leagues? Because those are two very, very different things...

 

K...........................

[canadiansportsjunkie]

K...........................

 

I'm still unsure if you get it or not

[TwistedLogic]

Tanaka is older and has established himself as a consistent great pitcher at the highest level (in the Japanese leagues). You don't need projections to quality him.

 

The Japanese leagues are the highest level? You do realize that a long track record of "dominance" in the Japanese leagues is like having a long track record of dominance in Triple-A, yes?

 

 

Tanaka's injury aside if I were to bet on either ones projections I would take Tanaka's ove Stroman's any day... consecutive years of dominance at the highest level in Japan is not the same as a young kid working his way up through the minors with one successful (shorter) stint in the majors.

 

Shorter by 5 innings?

 

 

Everyone knows prime baseball years are 26-28. So yes, when you're approaching those years it's definitely a strength. In particular when you're trying to project a players performance.

 

So Stroman in his rookie season was as valuable as Tanaka entering his prime?

[Spanky99]

Based on ceiling...Tanaka.

 

This is what it was based on...just an fyi.

 

"Taking everything into account (stats, scouting, stadium, salary, service time, Steamer and stints on the DL), who is your favorite starting pitcher going forward in the AL East?"

[LongTimeReader]

The Japanese leagues are the highest level? You do realize that a long track record of "dominance" in the Japanese leagues is like having a long track record of dominance in Triple-A, yes?

 

This is a common misconception. Japanese leagues are not equivalent to Triple-A (if anything I'd say somewhere in-between and overall probably a mixed bag of players with varying talent levels but it's impossible to qualify either way). Do you think they won the WBC 2x because of luck?

 

 

Shorter by 5 innings?

 

OK?

 

So Stroman in his rookie season was as valuable as Tanaka entering his prime?

 

I don't know how you are equating this.

[Spanky99]

"going forward". How far forward? Because all of those things change. Just for 2015?

 

It's basically Tanaka or Stroman...probably Stroman with service time/money tipping the scales.

 

Ask the OP, I took Stroman for what you just said, plus Tanaka's UCL tear. If I were to just pick a pitcher out of them five, I'd lean more to Cobb.

[guylaroche5]

This is a common misconception. Japanese leagues are not equivalent to Triple-A (if anything I'd say somewhere in-between and overall probably a mixed bag of players with varying talent levels but it's impossible to qualify either way). Do you think they won the WBC 2x because of luck?

.

 

did you seriously just use the WBC? you do realize our former top 10 catcher was a U.S. starter in the last one......

[LongTimeReader]

did you seriously just use the WBC? you do realize our former top 10 catcher was a U.S. starter in the last one......

 

It's a ballpark comparison against no other legit comparison, essentially better than nothing.

[TwistedLogic]

This is a common misconception. Japanese leagues are not equivalent to Triple-A (if anything I'd say somewhere in-between and overall probably a mixed bag of players with varying talent levels but it's impossible to qualify either way). Do you think they won the WBC 2x because of luck?

 

No I think they won them because the WBC is a hot pile of garbage.

 

I don't know how you are equating this.

 

With wins above replacement.

 

It's a ballpark comparison against no other legit comparison, essentially better than nothing.

 

Given that journeyman players that are only really good for triple-A in the states often go to Japan and become good, and very few Japanese players translate well to the majors, I'd say it's more comparable to AAA than it is to the MLB.