Jays interested in Holland

[Governator]

I think some of you are underestimating Holland's value and clearly have a heavy heart from the rise and fall of the likes of Delabar, Santos, and Janssen. Holland has been a reliever his entire pro career, he's not a failed starter, he wasn't a substitute teacher and he's had 4 years in a row of elite success that no one on our roster has reached.

[G-Snarls]

I think some of you are underestimating Holland's value and clearly have a heavy heart from the rise and fall of the likes of Delabar, Santos, and Janssen. Holland has been a reliever his entire pro career, he's not a failed starter, he wasn't a substitute teacher and he's had 4 years in a row of elite success that no one on our roster has reached.

 

Did he ever run a heating and ventilation business

[Governator]

Did he ever run a heating and ventilation business

 

possibly, I'd have to confirm with my sources.

[Olerud363]

I think some of you are underestimating Holland's value and clearly have a heavy heart from the rise and fall of the likes of Delabar, Santos, and Janssen. Holland has been a reliever his entire pro career, he's not a failed starter, he wasn't a substitute teacher and he's had 4 years in a row of elite success that no one on our roster has reached.

 

 

The moment that Duane Ward looked the most kickass, the most invincible, the most proven was actually also the moment it was all over for him. When he looked the greatest he had like 3 games left to pitch ever...

[Governator]

Well there is no such thing as a guarantee...

[Westfan]

Well there is no such thing as a guarantee...

Exactly. Bull pens are so unpredictable but I doubt anyone is underestimating Holland or for that matter KC,s BP.

 

The reason Holland, Clippard and Chapman are all available is because they are valuable but also very expensive. They have priced themselves off their teams. I and most fans would love to have any of them . Most I think are like me and not willing to give up a huge asset for them. If they are a salary dump like Jim Johnson was then I'll gladly give them Goins but I'm not giving up a valuable asset for 2 very pricey years of control.

Roll the f***ing dice on a couple or three and hope you don't wind up with a tigers type BP

[Key22]

Looks like the 4 best relievers are off the free agent market with Miller a Yank, Robertson to the White Sox, Gregerson in Houston and Neshek about to sign in Houseton.

 

Jays apparently interested in Kyle (am I still in the big leagues) Farnsworth - LOL.

[ScientificReason]

I wasn't trying to troll the good posters (like Nox and JFAS). Sorry about that.

 

I was just trying to point out to the "we need a shutdown closer" and "we need an ace" crowd that their arguments were flawed.

 

The team with the best 2 aces (LA) didn't win.

 

The team with the best bullpen (I'm assuming it was KC??) didn't win it all.

 

The team that did win probably wasn't the best at anything or really the best at all just some combination of good and lucky.

 

If the Jays somehow make the playoffs and then go on to win the world Series because Dickey goes 5-0 in the playoffs and EE hits 9 homers in the playoffs.

 

It won't be because of anything other than the fact the Dickey and EE have had good 3 week runs before and could very well have a good 3 weeks in October. Or somebody else could.

 

The problem with your posts is they are cherry picking...Those teams are not the jays,Those teams never had the offense we have... When people say we need a Ace, or closer...they mean this is what would give us the best chance to win, where the biggest need is, there are never guarantees. The team with the best pitching did win it all though...the Giants. We don;t NEED those, what people mean is thats where we think if we upgrade, that will give us the best shot...Your taking things to serious lol.

[Jimcanuck]

Relief pitcher stats are quite volatile for a couple of reasons -

 

- smaller sample size means luck/chance plays a much more significant role in the stats than for SP and position players

- they are often replaced with another reliever after giving up a few runs (as opposed to a SP that might give up 2 in the 1st inning, and another in the 2nd, and leave in the 7th after giving up a respectable 3). So they have less chance to 'modulate' their stats

 

Hence the year to year volatility mentioned on here

 

Need to use at least 2-3 years of data and rely more on scouting grades, pitch ratings

 

IMO

[Key22]

JimCanuck - perhaps a better way to view the pen instead of each individual reliever, as you correctly note - small sample size - is to look at the total number of innings the pen pitches and build a "pen." A team's pen in total inning might be worth two full starting pitchers as they throw around 400 innings per year. So rather than looking at one guy maybe it is wiser to have the money spread around across the pen.

 

I'd far rather have 7 solid guys than rely on one shut down guy. I have not checked but does Robertson earn more in a year by himself than our best 7 relievers combined?

 

But with around 400+ innings of relief looking at the team then as 5 starters and a relief core that is 2/7th of the combined innings I think you want to build as good a pen as you can. When KC touts a 77-1 record when leading after 6 - that is "ridiculous" on the one hand but surely the stats guys have some information on this. If two teams were leading in the 6th 78 times and one team loses 1 game and the other team loses 15 games - then the pen is worth a differential of plus 14. There is probably a stats that takes the average across the league of wins/losses when leading after 6 - the more you win against the average is wins above average pen (WAAP).

[RealAccountant]

That's not how it works.

 

Its no different than some of the analysis you pit forward

[Spanky99]

Want Holland but won't like the price

 

Will you come for a group seats errrrr drunk right?

[Spanky99]

http://www.hardballtimes.com/leverage-matters-when-to-invest-in-the-bullpen/

 

This article does a pretty good job of explaining bullpens.

 

Without reading, volatility.

[Spanky99]

Jesus, this thread's a mess.

[Spanky99]

Olerud wins, lol. That was nuts by the way.

[Spanky99]

Still a mess .

[G-Snarls]

Will you come for a group seats errrrr drunk right?

 

Absolutely

[Spanky99]

Absolutely

 

Post in the thread I created, lol.

[GD]

Its no different than some of the analysis you pit forward

 

You're pretty dumn.

[Deadpool]

But with around 400+ innings of relief looking at the team then as 5 starters and a relief core that is 2/7th of the combined innings I think you want to build as good a pen as you can. When KC touts a 77-1 record when leading after 6 - that is "ridiculous" on the one hand but surely the stats guys have some information on this. If two teams were leading in the 6th 78 times and one team loses 1 game and the other team loses 15 games - then the pen is worth a differential of plus 14. There is probably a stats that takes the average across the league of wins/losses when leading after 6 - the more you win against the average is wins above average pen (WAAP).

 

This, while technically a "stat", has zero predictive or analytic value. In hindsight, you could look at that and say "that pen was effective at holding wins during this sample size", but it doesn't tell you why, or give you any valuable information going forward.

 

To use an easy example, let us say a team had 78 games in which they were leading 20-0 before the 7th inning, and in 77 of those games, the bullpen allowed 19 runs to score, but in one of those games, the bullpen allowed 21 runs to score. By your stat above, that's a great bullpen, but by any realistic measure, that's a pretty f***ing terrible bullpen.