Baseball America: Blue Jays top-10 prospects

[Jimcanuck]

Reading the article, and it notes the top prospect from the last 10 years. Wow...they have practically been all busts; Adam Lind is the best MLB player from the list. The last three years are d'Arnaud, Sanchez and Norris, so it's too early to tell for those guys, but man the Jays haven't developed many decent players over the last few years.

 

They've gotten a lot better under AA. Whatever other faults AA has, drafting and player development, arguably the most important part of being a GM, has been very good.

[Atothe]

1 Daniel Norris

2 Dalton Pompey

3 Jeff Hoffman

4 Aaron Sanchez

5 Roberto Osuna

6 Franklin Barreto

7 Miguel Castro

8 Max Pentecost

9 Mitch Nay

10 Richard Urena

 

Now this is a top 10, take this thanks

[Vdubfan]

From the Chat

 

 

 

Clint Longenecker: Thanks for stopping by. This is an exciting system that saw some of its top prospects make it to the majors this year. This is also an exciting draft class to augment this system. Let’s dive in!

 

Brett (Stratford, ON, Canada): Who were you fringe players that just missed out on the top 10?

 

Clint Longenecker: The next grouping of players after the top 10, all of whom had an argument for being in the top 10 depending upon preference or risk tolerance, includes arguably the most major-league ready starter in the system in Kendall Graveman, who had a great year and shot up to the big leagues a year after signing $5,000, and a group of interesting lefthanders—Jairo Labourt, Ryan Borucki, Sean Nolin and Matt Smoral—and one of the top pure hitters in the system with Dwight Smith Jr.

 

 

Personally Graveman and Smith are in the top ten for me

 

Thanks for the post! Does he mention Alford at all?

[GD]

Now this is a top 10, take this thanks

 

thanks babe

 

DSJ just outside T10, Alford will likely move up considerably

[kgm1]

Thanks for the post! Does he mention Alford at all?

 

many times . said he would be bottom half of the top 30.

AZ (Toronto): Hi Clint…what are your thoughts on Anthony Alford now that he’s finally given up the football dream and is focusing 100% on baseball. I’m assuming he’ll be in Lansing next year. How crippling do you think the lost development time is? Hard hard is something like that to overcome?

 

Clint Longenecker: Crippling is probably a strong word. It is tough no doubt. That’s why there have been so few players who have had successful long-term careers in baseball after splitting their time between sports early in their careers. But the short list of players to accomplish that feat are mostly premium athletes, and Alford is exactly that. The scouts who saw him in the Appy League this summer said he was arguably one of the best athletes in all of the minors. They gushed about his combination of premium body, power and speed. They said it all comes down to the bat, which is why it was encouraging that he made it to the final stretch of instructs and why he is in Australia this offseason. Getting at-bats as quickly as possible is paramount for him. The odds are against him because of the lost developmental time, but premium athletes are the ones that are most likely to defy expectations.

[kgm1]

I like this one.

 

Gerry (Toronto): What are scouts saying about Kendall Graveman’s progress this season? Can he be a major league starter?

 

Clint Longenecker: What a great success story for the player, the scouting department and the player development staff. Area scout Brian Johnston needs to be commended. Graveman was his gut-feel guy in the 2013 draft, and by the end of the next season that $5,000 signee was a major leaguer. He added a cutter and really took off this year. While he is unlikely to be an impact big leaguer, he is close to contributing to the major leagues. He could be a backend starter who can log innings because of his plus life that enable above-average groundball rates and plus control to his low-90s heater that touches 95. He will survive by throwing strikes, getting groundballs and limiting home runs. He has only allowed five home runs in 207 minor league innings. He can pitch off of his fastball and he cutter is a true plus weapon. His could contribute out of the pen also.

[kgm1]

States later in the chat they will definitely be top half.

 

Brett (Stratford, ON, Canada): I believe the Jays have one of the better minor league systems in baseball, what is your opinion on them?

 

Clint Longenecker: The Jays have one of the more talented systems in the game, but the most valuable currency in the minors is impact players at the upper minors who could contribute to the majors in the short term. The Jays top grouping of players—Norris, Sanchez and Pompey—all fit that description, but beyond that the impact talent at the upper minors thins a bit. But their talent base is very strong and the wave of prospects at the lower minors is among the most talented in the game. Sorry to hedge on this one, but I think there is a very reasonable range of answers depending upon how one might weigh the time value of prospects (to take an economic term and apply it to prospects) versus total long-term impact. It’s hard not to be excited and bullish about this group of players.

[TheHurl]

Full Chat

 

Clint Longenecker: Thanks for stopping by. This is an exciting system that saw some of its top prospects make it to the majors this year. This is also an exciting draft class to augment this system. Let’s dive in!

 

Brett (Stratford, ON, Canada): Who were you fringe players that just missed out on the top 10?

 

Clint Longenecker: The next grouping of players after the top 10, all of whom had an argument for being in the top 10 depending upon preference or risk tolerance, includes arguably the most major-league ready starter in the system in Kendall Graveman, who had a great year and shot up to the big leagues a year after signing $5,000, and a group of interesting lefthanders—Jairo Labourt, Ryan Borucki, Sean Nolin and Matt Smoral—and one of the top pure hitters in the system with Dwight Smith Jr.

 

Brett (Stratford, ON, Canada): I know a lot of the Jays prospects are in the lower minors but could we see flow of young players getting to the majors in 2 years?

 

Clint Longenecker: Good question, but a tough one to answer because their developmental philosophy over the last few years has been to develop players at each level. Very few of their prospects have been pushed very aggressively. Although catchers usually take some time to develop in the minors, Max Pentecost could make the majors within two years because of his athleticism and well-rounded skill set. Among pitchers, Miguel Castro could also be a very tough right-on-right matchup out of the pen in short order if the organization chose to develop him in that capacity. Those are purely my opinions because the organization is the only one capable of answering that question, primarily through their actions.

 

Brett (Stratford, ON, Canada): I believe the Jays have one of the better minor league systems in baseball, what is your opinion on them?

 

Clint Longenecker: The Jays have one of the more talented systems in the game, but the most valuable currency in the minors is impact players at the upper minors who could contribute to the majors in the short term. The Jays top grouping of players—Norris, Sanchez and Pompey—all fit that description, but beyond that the impact talent at the upper minors thins a bit. But their talent base is very strong and the wave of prospects at the lower minors is among the most talented in the game. Sorry to hedge on this one, but I think there is a very reasonable range of answers depending upon how one might weigh the time value of prospects (to take an economic term and apply it to prospects) versus total long-term impact. It’s hard not to be excited and bullish about this group of players.

 

Greg T. (Ontario): DJ Davis is quite the engima–the most tools in this system, yet he led the solar system in K’s, CS, and E’s as an OF. What’s the deal with this guy? Will he ever figure it out?

 

Clint Longenecker: Great question. He has always been a high-upside but low-probability player and that has only continued in his second full minor league season. The good news is that he still has time on his side as a 21-year old. Despite the rising strikeout rates, its hard not to temper expectations for him after he struck out in nearly 1/3 (30.8%) of all PAs this season. This year was a big year for him and he struggled, as you pointed out. The odds are against him figuring it out, as they are with most players, but the Jays are going to give him the opportunity to because the tools are immense. His raw power drew some 70 grades from scouts, though 60 grade raw is more common. The player development staff said that he simply has not shown the ability to make adjustments yet. They largely let him be in his first year and didnt try to change too much with him. But his ability to make adjustments and his overall feel for the game were lacking this year. What ails him as a player overall is not dissimilar to the common refrain heard when describing many high school players out of Mississippi.

 

Brett (Stratford, ON, Canada): I like Mitch Nay quite a bit, why was he left off the top 10?

 

Clint Longenecker: There is a lot to like with Mitch Nay; he is a high-makeup player with a above-average contact rates, at least 65-grade raw power and improved defense at third base this year to go with a plus arm. Scouting opinions of him differed and some questioned his bat speed, while others liked his ability to go to the opposite field. His power will likely determine much of his value. He has a strong, powerful body and raw power, but getting to it in games will be the key. He hit three home runs this year in 558 PAs with a below average ISO. Scouts think that he will be able to get to that power in the long-term, but it just hasnt come yet. He is only 21 and is a good hitter, first and foremost. Since power is often the last tool to come, he will have a chance.

 

Brett (Stratford, ON, Canada): With all of the good young pitchers in the lower minors, who are the top couple pitchers there that are not in the top 10

 

Clint Longenecker: None of the young lefthanders in their system made the top 10, but they all have an argument to be in there. Matt Smoral, 20, healthy this year, showed a strong fastball-slider combo that allowed him to strike out hitters at a prodigious rate (13.6) in the Appy League. Ryan Borucki, 20, has a better chance of staying the rotation with fastball up to 94, a plus changeup and the potential for plus control with a loose, athletic and projectable body. Jairo LaBourt, 20, has some similarities to Smoral in that he is a big-bodied LHP (6’4) with the potential for a plus fastball-slider combo while also having below-average walk rates. This is a strong trio of young LHPs, all of whom could be top 10 prospects with strong seasons in 2015 at full-season clubs.

 

Kasey (Dunedin): Do the Jays have any impact players coming besides the ones we saw this year (Norris, Sanchez, Pompey)

 

Clint Longenecker: Absolutely. There are few pitchers in the minors purely as talented as Jeff Hoffman. Had he been healthy it would have been very interesting to see where he went in the draft. The time table for him will likely be a little slower, but his potential impact is undeniable. He has a great body with the chance for at least plus, if not plus-plus, with his fastball, curveball and changeup, not to mention his above-average groundball rates and control. Its hard not to dream on Hoffman. Pentecost also has the potential to be an above-average regular behind the plate, and there are few catchers as athletic as he is. While the Norris-Sanchez-Pompey trio will likely get to Toronto (for good) first, this potential battery with Hoffman and Pentecost could also be impactful.

 

Corye (South Bend): Very surprised Dwight Smith, Jr. didn’t sneak in after his very impressive season in the pitcher-friendly FSL, and his tearing-up of the AFL thus far. Does he have a future in Toronto’s OF plans?

 

Clint Longenecker: He was the next position player after the top 10, although there were a handful of pitchers in front of him. You’re right, he had a very strong year in a tough hitting environment. Although he was a second-round pick, Smith is not a player who fits a first-division profile in any of the three outfield spots. He likely does have a future in the Toronto outfield, but he will have to hit his way there. But people inside and outside of the organization believe he will do just that. Considering the lower offensive standards in the majors, Smith will have a major league role if he continues to hit, but his power is not typical of a LF. He is the exact type of player (bat-first types that dont fit traditional profiles) that prospect lists tend to underrate, but if he has another strong offensive season at AA next year, he could very well be a top 10 guy.

 

@Jaypers413 (IL): Thanks for the chat, Clint. (Gonna do another 4+ hour marathon this year?) How close did Labourt come to making your list, and what were scouts saying about his future role?

 

Clint Longenecker: We’ll see!! He was just on the outskirts. Until he throws more strikes and develops his changeup into a more consistent offering, LaBourt will continue to have some projecting him in the bullpen as a left-on-left option because of his velocity, deception to his delivery, angle to his fastball because of his slot and plus slider. His control (4.6 per nine in his career) will have to improve give scouts greater confidence in his ability to stay in the rotation, where he could be a No. 4 starter. But he is only 20 and lefties develop at a different pace. His return to full-season ball next year will key.

 

Gerry (Toronto): What are scouts saying about Kendall Graveman’s progress this season? Can he be a major league starter?

 

Clint Longenecker: What a great success story for the player, the scouting department and the player development staff. Area scout Brian Johnston needs to be commended. Graveman was his gut-feel guy in the 2013 draft, and by the end of the next season that $5,000 signee was a major leaguer. He added a cutter and really took off this year. While he is unlikely to be an impact big leaguer, he is close to contributing to the major leagues. He could be a backend starter who can log innings because of his plus life that enable above-average groundball rates and plus control to his low-90s heater that touches 95. He will survive by throwing strikes, getting groundballs and limiting home runs. He has only allowed five home runs in 207 minor league innings. He can pitch off of his fastball and he cutter is a true plus weapon. His could contribute out of the pen also.

 

Gerry (Toronto): Was Matt Smoral close to grabbing a top 10 spot?

 

Clint Longenecker: Yes, he was right there in the next group of players considered. Always considered a very talented arm, Smoral was healthy this year and threw more strikes in the Appy League than previously in his pro career. The continued development of his strike-throwing ability will likely determine his ability to stay in the rotation or move to the pen, where he could be a strong option late in games. Scouts said his plus slider was so good that the necessity of his changeup was less than most expect of a LHP. He got swings and misses from RHH on his slider because of his ability to backfoot the offering. History shows that the majority of tall (6’8 pitchers) end up in the bullpen, but he is still only 20 and would be draft eligible this upcoming June had be made it to UNC.

 

Feng (New York): Seems like the jays farm system improved a lot this year. Outside of Anthony Alford, who do you see as a candidate for a major breakout next year?

 

Clint Longenecker: The talent has been in the system, but this year some of it got to be displayed in Toronto. I wouldnt say I have any ability to predict a breakout next year but one player who deserves more recognition than he has gotten to date publically is catcher Dan Jansen. A 2013 draftee, Jansen signed for $100,000 out of a Wisconsin high school. The organization applauds the job that area scout Wes Penick did with Jansen. He had a great season in the Appy League, and his defensive ability improved. He has plus bat speed and has the potential to hit for at least average power from a strong, powerful and physical build after producing a .202 ISO this year. Although his baseball reps were limited being from Wisconsin, he has tremendous feel for strike zone and walked nearly as much as he struck out. The staff applauded his receiving skills and think his arm has a chance to play as average to a tick above with continued development. A 19-year-old catcher who controls the zone, hits for power and has the potential to remain behind the plate is certainly one to keep an eye on.

 

Steve (Canada): Pompey and Norris jumped up the prospects list in 2014. Outside of this years’ top 10 list is there a couple of players that are “sleeper type” or very intriguing. Thanks

 

Clint Longenecker: They certainly had great years. The organization really likes Lane Thomas, who went in the fifth round but got a bonus commensurate with the early third round. Thomas transitioned to the infield after playing lots of center field in high school. He reportedly looked good during instructs at second base, while offering an above-average arm. He offers a combination of tools, makeup, instincts and feel for the game that is coveted by both scouts and player development people. The athletic Thomas has a well-rounded skill set and was moved up to the Appy League late in the minor league season, demonstrating the confidence the organization has in him. He has bat speed, feel for the barrel and pop.

 

Gerry (Toronto): I saw Osuna pitch in the AFL. It looks like his third pitch needs some work. Do scouts think the third pitch will come?

 

Clint Longenecker: Gerry, you nailed it. His fastball-changeup combo are presently strong. Scouts werent as high on his breaking ball upon his return from the injury this year. But some scouts thought the pitch showed above-average potential last year. Although he has a wrist wrap, his arm works easy and he has feel for his delivery and he is still only 19. His third pitch will be a developmental point of emphasis and has a chance to come on.

 

AZ (Toronto): Hi Clint…what are your thoughts on Anthony Alford now that he’s finally given up the football dream and is focusing 100% on baseball. I’m assuming he’ll be in Lansing next year. How crippling do you think the lost development time is? Hard hard is something like that to overcome?

 

Clint Longenecker: Crippling is probably a strong word. It is tough no doubt. That’s why there have been so few players who have had successful long-term careers in baseball after splitting their time between sports early in their careers. But the short list of players to accomplish that feat are mostly premium athletes, and Alford is exactly that. The scouts who saw him in the Appy League this summer said he was arguably one of the best athletes in all of the minors. They gushed about his combination of premium body, power and speed. They said it all comes down to the bat, which is why it was encouraging that he made it to the final stretch of instructs and why he is in Australia this offseason. Getting at-bats as quickly as possible is paramount for him. The odds are against him because of the lost developmental time, but premium athletes are the ones that are most likely to defy expectations.

 

AZ (Toronto): Hi Clint…What’s the consensus on Rowdy Tellez. He seemed to have a very solid year with the bat. The power numbers weren’t necessarily there but power is often the last thing to come. His plate discipline was very positive. Could we see a breakthrough year from him in 2015?

 

Clint Longenecker: Yes, absolutely. With Tellez everything comes down to the bat. He showed resolve this year after working through a tough start to the season, one that began a level lower than he thought it would after a strong spring. The player development staff said his approach was geared more to the pull side earlier in the year with some length to his swing. But then he began to use the gaps more. He produced above-average contact rates in the Appy League (though those numbers increased significantly in his short move to the next level). He doesn’t swing and miss much in the strike zone, and his raw power is a known entity. Once he gets to that power in game action more frequently, Tellez could take off.

 

AZ (Toronto): Should we be worried about the way Roberto Osuna performed or should we just forget 2014 (coming off TJ) and evaluate him solely based on that he does in 2015?

 

Clint Longenecker: Don’t put too much stock in the tradition numbers he accrued in his 22 innings at High A in his return. He was still one of the youngest players at his level and coming back from injury. Sure, his 6.55 ERA isn’t pretty, but what was behind that? His FIP (4.07) was a full two runs lower because his BABIP was an unsustainable .446. Yes, his home run rate was high (1.2), and he is likely going to be a flyball-oriented pitcher prone to the vagaries of what percentage of those flyballs reach the seats. This is why the organization is working to increase his fastball life. But he continued to strike out hitters at a high clip, which is the most important thing a pitcher can do. Look for a significant improvement in his 2015 numbers.

 

Jeremy (Toronto): As a Jays fan it seems to have been a great year for the Jays farm system, is that true or is that just my Blue Jay coloured glasses?

 

Clint Longenecker: I think that is certainly true, though the optics of the system getting players to the big leagues may have made a lasting impression. That is not to say it wasn’t a great year, because it was, but more to say that the system had a lot of talent last year and the scouting and player development staff were doing a good job then too. So we need to keep that in mind. Seeing the farm system place players you’ve been reading about in the major leagues was likely the driving force behind the great year. Stroman came up and was one of the best rookies in all of the major leagues. Norris and Pompey made tremendous improvements and vaulted themselves into a completely different class of prospect than they were last year at this time. Sanchez also coming to the bigs and getting groundballs at a prodigious rate was also a huge help, not to mention having Kendall Graveman race through the minors and reach the bigs. This says nothing of getting tow of the top 11 players in last year’s draft. It’s hard not to say that it was a strong year for the organization.

 

Karl of Delaware (Georgetown, Delaware): How many of these guys make the top 100?

 

Clint Longenecker: Take this with a grain of salt because our top 100 is a collaborative process that involves many key decision-makers and many lengthy discussions and teamwork. So what I write below is only my opinion. But I think that the top four-Norris, Sanchez, Hoffman and Pompey- is very likely to be in the top 100. The next two, Barreto and Pentecost, will also have a case. Pentecost, in particular, as the 11th overall pick in the draft.

 

Devon (Toronto ON): Does Graveman get your vote for breakout sleeper this year? What’s his upside?

 

Clint Longenecker: It’s hard not to say that racing through the minors to reach the majors already constitutes some kind of breakout. His upside is a backend starter, one who gets outs with his heater while getting groundballs and limiting free passes and home runs. This type of pitcher is a very valuable piece of a contending club because of his ability to eat innings or contribute in a few different roles, also with the ability to help out of the bullpen.

 

@Jaypers413 (IL): Clint, I’d like to get your reaction to Anthony Alford’s decision to play baseball full-time. Will he have a spot on your 30? What would you rank his tools on the 20-80 scale?

 

Clint Longenecker: It was surprising considering the time, especially with Ole Miss being ranked in the top 15 in the country, but encouraging. Yes, he will certainly be on the 30, somewhere on the back half. His speed is at least plus, as is his raw power. His arm will likely be at least average. I am not sure if I feel comfortable putting grades on the other two tools given the circumstances. He has the physical ability to be a plus defender in center, but he must get more reps out there to allow his jumps and instincts to catch up to his physical ability. The ultimate question is his bat. Some thought he had the ability to be an above-average hitter coming out of the draft, but it’s really tough to tell given the developmental time lost. The scouts I spoke with who saw him in the Appy League weren’t sure what to do with his hit tool given how much time he has missed.

 

Harry (Miami FL): Is Dwight Smith Jr still on your top 30.

 

Clint Longenecker: Absolutely. He ranked last year and had a great year. He will be the first position player ranked outside of the top 10.

 

Grant (NYC): Which LHP gets your vote for higher ceiling between Boyd, Smoral and Nolin?

 

Clint Longenecker: By pure ceiling it is Smoral.

 

Ben (Leland Grove): Did the Jays have the best overall draft this year, in your opinion?

 

Clint Longenecker: I will answer the way that most scouting directors and people inside the game answer- we’ll find out in 5-10 years. Nonetheless, it was an exciting draft that offered potential impact and some high school players you can dream on. Brian Parker and his staff did a great job of getting looks at Hoffman early and taking a pitcher who could be one of the most talented pure arms in the minors. SRF could have went in the first round but the Jays were very excited to get him where they did. Nick Wells offers a big, projectable body, plus CB and fastball up to 93. RHP Justin Shafer, a two-way guy at UF, has shown a promising FB-SL combo. 2B Gunnar Heidt is a grinder who offers some tools to go along with feel for the game. This is an exciting group of players.

 

JUK (England): Pretty strong system that has Barreto at 5. Is he a lock for the top 100 list?

 

Clint Longenecker: Agreed. That is a very strong group of players at the top. I dont think he is a lock, but he will certainly be in the discussion, as will Pentecost.

 

Cy Mature (Cooperstown Retirement Home): Thanks for answering our questions, Clint. How much will the Blue Jays be tempted to leave Aaron Sanchez in the big league pen, rather than returning him to the AAA rotation? Does his short stride worry you? The results were great.

 

Clint Longenecker: It will certainly be a temptation because the stuff was so loud in that role and his ability to get groundballs puts him in rarefied territory. It all depends on their desire to win and the way that the rest of the starting staff comes together in the offseason, as well as how many strikes he throws next year. If he can approach anything close to his second-half walk rates (2.5/9) it will be hard not to keep him in the rotation, or give him a chance in the majors in the rotation. It will certainly be a fun development to watch. Good question about his short stride. It is not ideal, as you would love for every pitcher to have a long stride with lots of extension out front to further allow his fastball to play above its pure velocity and life. But the move to a shorter stride was not a permanent one and it part of an evolving process. The staff shortened his stride in the 2013 season in an attempt to get him to work over the ball more frequently. The goal was to length on his stride once he consistently showed that he was getting on top of the ball and getting downhill more. His stride will continue to lengthen down the mound the more strides he makes with his control and feel for his delivery. This is all part of the developmental process.

 

AZ (Toronto): What are your thoughts on Ryan Borucki? Coming off of TJ, I think he had an excellent season (granted it was only short-season ball). What are your thoughts on his ceiling. From what I’ve read he sounds a bit like a Justin Nicolino…but was a bit better stuff. Is that fair?

 

Clint Longenecker: It was a strong season and the organization is bullish on Borucki. They are similar pitchers as fastball-changeup lefthanders with pitchability and control. The development of his breaking ball will be key because he certainly fills up the strike zone and can get swings and misses with his changeup. Hard not to love his control and the improvements that he made to his delivery since reaching pro ball. The effort level in his delivery has really been reduced and his head is so much calmer.

 

Michael Stern (Rochester NY): If Barreto can’t remian at SS where do you see him moving to? Is 2B the answer? Does he project to have enough power to play at 3B or in the OF if necessary? Thanks for the chat!

 

Clint Longenecker: 2B and CF are the next two most likely options if he moves off SS. But keeping plus athletes with a chance to hit in the dirt as long as possible is the organization’s stance. He could hit for power at third base, but it likely wouldnt be profile HR power (though that is falling at 3b) and more in high doubles production.

 

AZ (Toronto): Miguel Castro…We all know the fastball is terrific…he seems to be able to throw strikes pretty consistently as well. How are his secondary offerings? Been reading that they are improving but how much? Do you seem him as a future reliever or starter?

 

Clint Longenecker: Enough that his changeup has above-average potential. The development of his breaking ball is key, but as a big RHP who can consistently locate arm side with a plus-plus heater the necessity of an average (or above) breaking ball is slightly mitigated over some other types of pitchers. Give him a chance to remain in the rotation, because he is only 19, acknowledging that he could move quickly in the pen. In the long run for many pitchers, breaking ball quality correlates (to varying degrees) with hand speed. And Castro’s very fast arm gives his breaking ball a chance to develop. Be patient with the young pitchers, especially one with a body like his.

 

AZ (Toronto): DJ Davis. Bust…or do we give him another season?

 

Clint Longenecker: While the performance hasnt met expectations and there arent many players who improve their contact rates significantly while marching up the ladder, give him time. If he went to college he would be eligible to draft this upcoming June.

 

AZ (Toronto): Thoughts on Dan Jansen. He had a very good year behind the plate in Bluefield…especially with the bat. Is he someone to keep an eye on as a legit prospect, or is it too early to tell?

 

Clint Longenecker: Yes, plus bat speed, ability to control the zone and pop. He is a prospect.

 

AZ (Toronto): Jeff Hoffman ahead of Dalton Pompey for #3? That be a little surprising to many. I’m a big fan of Hoffman as well. How good is the stuff? Does he have legit ‘Ace’ potential…with the understanding that there are very few aces actually out there.

 

Clint Longenecker: It was a tough call, truly. The stuff has a chance to be special. He has the potential to be at least a No. 2 if everything actualizes. I saw him three times personally. At his opening stat of the year, scouts said that he looked similar to Verlander in college. That is not saying he is going to be Verlander, but does demonstrate just how loud the stuff was.

 

Jim (Toronto): Some folks in the industry, namely Keith Law, have commented that Sanchez’s short stride could lead to future health issues/trouble commanding his pitches. Is this something that concerns you? I presume that Toronto views him as a starter now and moving forward?

 

Clint Longenecker: They do. You have to give arms this talented every chance in the rotation. Keith is right and there is quantifiable data demonstrating that upright deliveries are more likely to sustain injuries. But the goal is to lengthen out his stride down the mound once he gets greater feel for working over the baseball and getting downhill, as most of his misses are high and to his arm side. If the stride remains at its present length well into the long-term that is not optimal, but it will likely get longer and shouldnt be as much of an issue in the long term.

 

Sam (Toronto): It seems like Toronto has replenished the system pretty quickly the last two years after making all their big trades to help the ML club. Lot of new players brought in over the last few years. Any thoughts? Thanks.

 

Clint Longenecker: The international and domestic scouting departments did a great job bolstering the talent base of the organization. The 2014 draft alone netted 3 of the top 10 prospects with Hoffman, Pentecost and SRF.

 

dyson (T.): was the Dalton Pompey we saw in 2014 the real deal – or was he hitting over his head?

 

Clint Longenecker: Pompey’s athleticism and baseball tools culminated in a great way. He has always drawn walks at an above-average clip and had at least average contact rates for the league while offering bat speed. He took a step forward this year and the scouts really liked what they saw with this bat. Multiple scouts said they thought he could be at least a 6 hitter and almost every scout thought that he had the tools to be at least a fringe-average to average hitter at worst, which is more than enough to be an everyday player given his defensive value, baserunning acumen and on-base ability.

 

Ben (DC): Does any club in baseball have three arms with the ceiling & potential that the Blue Jays have in Norris, Sanchez and Hoffman? Thanks.

 

Clint Longenecker: Great question, Ben! That was something I wondered as well. I asked both JJ Cooper and Matt Eddy. Neither of them wanted to confidently say the top trio was No. 1 without a full look across the game with those parameters. But no other team quickly came to mind that was better. Conservatively, it is one of the five most talented trios, but is likely higher than that.

 

Clutchlings (Ontario): How close was Anthony Alford to making the list?

 

Clint Longenecker: Not close to the top 10 given that he has 110 plate appearances in his career. But he will certainly be in the 30.

 

Shane (North Bay Ontairo): Why is Norris ahead of Sanchez? I understand these rankings take a whole season of work into consideration but Sanchez breif stint in the Majors this season he looked almost unhittable. Norris not so much.

 

Clint Longenecker: Norris threw 6 2/3 innings, a seemingly meaningless sample. While both have the talent to be No. 1 and are extremely valuable assets who had a case for the top spot, these were the separators. 1. LHP> RHP 2. Age: About 10 months younger for Norris 3. Strikeout performance: Norris had the highest SO rate of all qualified starters in full season baseball. Doing that as a 21 year old LHP is incredible. 4. Control/chance of staying in the rotation. Norris career minor league BB rate 3.7> Sanchez’s 4.8.

 

Jeff (Toronto): Do you think the Jays will rank in the top/lower half of Organizational Rankings this winter? Looks like plenty of high-upside guys.

 

Clint Longenecker: Top half.

 

Kevin (Caracas, Venezuela): What kind of power could Barreto develop? 20+ home run power?

 

Clint Longenecker: Good question. While Barreto is strong, especially from his elbows down, he is only 5’9, not a typical power hitter profile. I think 20+ home run power is unlikely. A quick Play Index search reveals that since 1970 there have only been 13 players listed at 5’9 or shorter who have hit 20+ home runs in a season. The list includes some of the best players in baseball when said seasons occurred: Joe Morgan, Kirby Puckett, Ivan Rodriguez, Dustin Pedroia, Jimmy Rollins, Miguel Tejada. Thats almost half the list! You have to be special to produce that much pop at that height and I think the odds are that Barreto falls short of those standards. But he will likely hit lots of doubles and triples because of his strength, bat speed and foot speed.

 

Shane (North Bay Ontairo): Jeff Hoffman rated 3rd already and has not even pitched a pro pitch already not to mention coming off Tommy John. Is he that good ?

 

Clint Longenecker: Yes, he has the potential to be that good. Given the circumstances, his ranking on the list indicates how much potential he has.

 

Gene (Buffalo, NY): I’ve seen Anthony Gose play frequently at AAA and he doesn’t look like he’ll ever translate his raw tools to an everyday player; whereas a player like Brad Glenn (comparable to Pillar) and Pompey (more toolsy) seem more like MLB players. Would Gose be better in another organization?

 

Clint Longenecker: Even though Gose has seemingly been talked about for a long time, he is still only 24. There are going to be a lot of players in the prospect handbook who are older than Gose. I am not sure what benefit a change of scenery would bear for a 24 year old who has only been with the organization since 2011. Striking out at less than a 28% clip in the majors with a 3.6SO:BB ratio will likely help him get more playing time.

 

Cainable (North Florida): Do you think concerns about his delivery (inverted W?) was the main reason Sean Reid Foley fell in the draft?

 

Clint Longenecker: There were a few. The arm action and throwing across his delivery. And simply the mechanics of the current draft. So teams thought that he would be gone when he got to them, which also played a part in the process. He had potentially his worst velocity of the spring at Sebring, the final big showing before the draft, when his velocity was 88-93. But his velocity was consistent for much of the spring and was back in his debut. The Jays were very excited to get him where they did.

 

Mike L (Fargo, ND): How far down does A.J. Jimenez fall and do you see him as a viable MLB C?

 

Clint Longenecker: His defense gives him backup potential. He just needs more reps and to stay healthy. He hasnt played more than 100 games in each of the last three seasons. He will be in the back half of the 30.

 

Tom (Calgary, Ab): It seems like the Jays under AA fear red flags less than other orgs. They’ve gone after players with signability concerns (Bickford, Beede, Reid-Foley), non-baseball commitments (Alford), size/durability concerns (Stroman), and injuries (Hoffman). Am I right about that? If so, is it a good strategy to grab higher upside than their draft slot would normally allow?

 

Clint Longenecker: I wouldnt necessarily say red flags. But I would say that they may prioritize upside more than others and discount some factors less. They covet impact talent.

 

Ron (Toronto): Please pleas please settle this debate for me: is Barreto a top-100 prospect?

 

Clint Longenecker: We’ll see come the winter. Sorry.

 

John (PA): I’m always digging for sleepers. Any thoughts on Andy Burns? Is he top 20/30 guy in this system?

 

Clint Longenecker: He will be in the handbook. Burns, 24, spent the entire year at AA and continued to show some power and speed. His most likely role at the major league level will be in a utility role because his athleticism gives him the ability to play many different positions.

 

Rob (Hamilton, ON): Sean Reid-Foley was projected as a first round talent. Did the Jays get a steal with a lower pick on first round talent or is he pretty raw?

 

Clint Longenecker: He is not raw. He is very competitive and has some present polish. He was a good value where they got him.

 

Brad (Ontario): Thanks for the chat. I didn’t get a good feel for what kind of ceiling Barreto might have, just that he’s a good hitter. What kind of peak slash line do you think he could deliver he develops?

 

Clint Longenecker: He could be an above-average regular. The range of potential outcomes (and errors) on projecting a triple-slash line for him this far out loses some of the exercises utility. But here are the inputs. He projects to be an above-average hitter, presently draws walks at a an average to tick below-average clip because of his aggressive approach and could hit for at least average power, with more of the production in XBH than HR.

 

Clint Longenecker: That’s it for today, folks. Thanks for your interest in the Jays system. Have a great day.

[burlingtonbandit]

The description of Dan Jansen sounds like he would be one of the better prospects in the system. Honestly, it wouldn't be a bad gamble to say he will be better than Pentecost if the receiving is as good as it says. Catchers that can frame and have good walk and SO rates are very valuable no matter what the arm is like. Even if he has a noodle arm it doesn't really mean much to how valuable he could be.

[Vdubfan]

Thanks for sharing!

[Hipfan]

Glad to hear about plans to change Sanchez's delivery. It's so short right now it's an injury waiting to happen, but at least they have plans to alter it in the future.

[TBJ12]

Great read!

 

It's hard not to like what AA has done with the minor league system. He's done a great job of quickly rebuilding what he traded away in the Marlins and Mets deals.

[Jimcanuck]

Great read!

 

It's hard not to like what AA has done with the minor league system. He's done a great job of quickly rebuilding what he traded away in the Marlins and Mets deals.

 

Org would be the envy of baseball if d'Arnaud catching at league min and Pentecost and Jansen in the pipeline

[KingKat]

Shane (North Bay Ontairo): Why is Norris ahead of Sanchez? I understand these rankings take a whole season of work into consideration but Sanchez breif stint in the Majors this season he looked almost unhittable. Norris not so much.

 

Clint Longenecker: Norris threw 6 2/3 innings, a seemingly meaningless sample. While both have the talent to be No. 1 and are extremely valuable assets who had a case for the top spot, these were the separators. 1. LHP> RHP 2. Age: About 10 months younger for Norris 3. Strikeout performance: Norris had the highest SO rate of all qualified starters in full season baseball. Doing that as a 21 year old LHP is incredible. 4. Control/chance of staying in the rotation. Norris career minor league BB rate 3.7> Sanchez’s 4.8.

 

That's a quality answer. Keith Law should take notes.

[TheHurl]

That's a quality answer. Keith Law should take notes.

 

at least Law keeps fans in check. Longnecker talks a little too much about ceiling without tempering expectations (a common BA trait in general). They pretty much say that every pitcher in their top 100 is a potential number 1. Considering their top 100 is usually about 45 pitchers it just doesn't fly for me.

[KingKat]

at least Law keeps fans in check. Longnecker talks a little too much about ceiling without tempering expectations (a common BA trait in general). They pretty much say that every pitcher in their top 100 is a potential number 1. Considering their top 100 is usually about 45 pitchers it just doesn't fly for me.

 

There's a difference between keeping expecations in check and being an ass. Keith Law is an ass.

[Chappy]

There's a difference between keeping expecations in check and being an ass. Keith Law is an ass.

 

I agree. People ask questions because they don't know, no need to belittle them like he does on occasion. A lot can be said for someone who treats people with respect.

[TwistedLogic]

When do you guys plan to start the forum Top 30 prospect rankings for the off-season?

[ElNik2013]

Pretty good job by AA of rebuilding the system, something many thought he wouldn't be able to do. Of course, it helps that they sucked in 2012 and 2013 and were able to get Hoffman and Pentecost.

 

System seems pretty darn good up to # 15. I'd put Dan Jansen in there, but it's fine, we'll see how he does in full season ball. If he continues what he did in 2014, this system could be really good.

 

Nay should be in the 8-10 range, but that's fine, I expect him to break out soon. If Osuna, Castro, Hoffman, Nay, Pentecost and Jansen come through, wow, that would be pretty darn good. Not to mention guys like Smoral, Labourt, et al in the lower minors.

 

Wait and see.

[Caper]

Anthony Alford should be in top 10. Everyone knows he is going to rip it up next year and end up there anyways.

[Angrioter]

Pretty good job by AA of rebuilding the system, something many thought he wouldn't be able to do. Of course, it helps that they sucked in 2012 and 2013 and were able to get Hoffman and Pentecost.

 

System seems pretty darn good up to # 15. I'd put Dan Jansen in there, but it's fine, we'll see how he does in full season ball. If he continues what he did in 2014, this system could be really good.

 

Nay should be in the 8-10 range, but that's fine, I expect him to break out soon. If Osuna, Castro, Hoffman, Nay, Pentecost and Jansen come through, wow, that would be pretty darn good. Not to mention guys like Smoral, Labourt, et al in the lower minors.

 

Wait and see.

 

Clinton Hollon, Evan Smith, Lane Thomas toolsy 2B/3B/OF, DSJ, Alberto "High ceiling" Tirado, Anthony Alford, Pimp-Foley, Rowdy "smash" Tellez, J- Brentz

 

Real good names!!

[GD]

Anthony Alford should be in top 10. Everyone knows he is going to rip it up next year and end up there anyways.

 

I just know he's gonna soar up my rankings this year

[ElNik2013]

Clinton Hollon, Evan Smith, Lane Thomas toolsy 2B/3B/OF, DSJ, Alberto "High ceiling" Tirado, Anthony Alford, Pimp-Foley, Rowdy "smash" Tellez, J- Brentz

 

Real good names!!

 

 

Real good names with some talent to boot. Decent freakin' system.