How do you build a bullpen?

[TDotttt2005]

With all the talk of how good the KC bullpen is this year, and how much the Jays' 'pen floundered after being a huge strength in 2013, got me thinking about how the hell do you build a bullpen?

 

Gone are the days when you count on the likes of Timlin, Ward, Henke year after year, although that was rare even then. Nowadays guys like Delabar and Santos are all-star worthy one year, and could be in the minors the next. Janssen was Rivera-esque in the 1st half, and couldn't get anyone out in the 2nd half. Are there advanced stats that have proven to show what pen arms are more likely to be consistent year-to-year?

 

AA has tried a number of different things, but in the aggregate, nothing has really worked. He tried the veteran route, with acquiring mid-reliever/setup/low-end closer types in Rauch, Francisco, etc. but that didn't work. He tried the "electric arm" strikeout potential guys in Santos, Jeffress, Delabar, Rogers, etc. and that worked, then collapsed.

 

Where does AA go from here? And overall, whats the best way to build a sustainable, consistent, and successful bullpen?

[Dr. Dinger]

2 out KC's big 3 bullpen arms will probably be injured or just outright lose it next year. Relievers are extremely volatile, there's no way to really predict who's going to be dominant from year to year, with very few exceptions. There's no foolproof way to build an elite bullpen; you get some talented arms and a decent pitching coach, and every once in awhile they coalesce for a full season of excellence.

[TDotttt2005]

2 out KC's big 3 bullpen arms will probably be injured or just outright lose it next year. Relievers are extremely volatile, there's no way to really predict who's going to be dominant from year to year, with very few exceptions. There's no foolproof way to build an elite bullpen; you get some talented arms and a decent pitching coach, and every once in awhile they coalesce for a full season of excellence.

 

So is it only luck? Theres no method?

[tercet]

1. Sign Luke Hochevar for super cheap..

2. ???

3. $$$$

[Dr. Dinger]

So is it only luck? Theres no method?

 

Everyone pretty much follows the same method: get a bunch of power arms and convert starters who can't cut it. There's no secret formula. The Jays had an excellent bullpen in 2013 (8th best in MLB), and it went to s*** this year (22nd). That's the way it goes.

[glory]

Sign K-Rod and Oviedo.

 

Saves.

[ElNik2013]

Fix the team's other holes first and foremost.

 

Sign a few cheap hard throwers (like Wagner in 2013).

 

Hope Delabar bounces back.

 

Hope Stilson is healthy.

 

Hope guys like Graveman and Cole become relief options later on in the year.

[ElNik2013]

Go unconventional by not naming 1 guy the closer and avoid thinking like Mike Matheny (on not bringing in Rosenthal into a tie game):

 

We can't bring him in, in a tie-game situation. We're on the road.

[saskjayfan]

 

that was actually pretty good moogster....I think praying to the gods of odin is a good start in building a bullpen.

[Boxcar]

that was actually pretty good moogster....I think praying to the gods of odin is a good start in building a bullpen.

 

Thats like saying the gods of Allah. Odin is a god, not a religion.

[kgm1]

Draft talented hard throwing arms, develop them as starters, and when they can't command their off speed stuff move them to the BP before their options run out.

 

OR

 

Throw lots of f***ing money at it. Andrew Miller will probably get a 3 year deal in the 7 to 8 mil range.

 

Since the Jays have little money Sanchez will be in the BP

[reedjohnsonfan]

Sure there's probably some luck and most relievers are volatile but there's a select few closers who are really good bets to continue dominating year after year. There's not many of them but this is why I'm not against giving an elite closer a big contract. Guys like Holland are pretty rare, unless he gets hurt I can see him being great for several years.

[Chappy]

The secret to building a good BP is having a strong rotation. Someone should tell this to AA.

[Chappy]

The Tiggers say hello.

 

Also, the Royals and Jays had comparable rotations this year.

 

My point was that it's better to leave less chance and have a rotation that can go deeper into games. Relievers are so volatile from year to year, there is no point in investing too much into them. Those same pens may end up blowing up next season and it wouldn't shock anyone.

[glory]

Jays fired the bullpen coach. There is our first scapegoat and step one on building a better bullpen!!

 

Alex with money to spend (presumably) and a huge hole in the bullpen scares he crap out of me. k-Rod will definitely be closer next season, and at $5M per.

[ElNik2013]

The secret to building a good BP is having a strong rotation. Someone should tell this to AA.

 

 

I thought the 2013 Jays had a strong bullpen despite a bad rotation?

 

Also, I don't think you can accuse AA of not trying to build a strong rotation. What you can say is that he's failed at it so far. After the 2012 team ended up with a rotation in shambles, he went out and got Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey.

 

Hopefully, he's successful soon enough.

[ElNik2013]

Jays fired the bullpen coach. There is our first scapegoat and step one on building a better bullpen!!

 

Alex with money to spend (presumably) and a huge hole in the bullpen scares he crap out of me. k-Rod will definitely be closer next season, and at $5M per.

 

 

We can only hope AA is just sending out misinformation to other teams through the media when he talks about the bullpen being so high on his shopping list.

 

We'll see what happens.

[ElNik2013]

Jays' 2014 Rotation:

13.1 WAR (7th in MLB; 5th in AL)

3.98 xFIP (8th in MLB; 7th in AL)

3.93 FIP (11th in MLB; 5th in AL)

3.98 SIERA (20th in MLB; 8th in AL)

3.96 ERA (22nd in MLB; 11th in AL)

958.2 IP (17th in MLB; 7th in AL)

 

They had the rotation to compete. They're a quality starter away from being really good.

 

Their deficiencies were defense and the bullpen.

 

 

I thank you for this. It was my impression that the rotation was at least decent this past season. I was really just pointing out to Chappy that one cannot accuse AA of not trying to address the starting rotation because quite clearly, he's used up quite a bit of resources trying to improve it since the end of the 2012 season. Heck even during the 2012 season when he went out and got Happ.

[Chappy]

I generally agree. It's always been my stance that you can't overestimate the value of guys who chew up innings. Starters who can consistently go deep into games, even if they're not studs, are more valuable than their "intrinsic value" (i.e. things like WAR), because of the positive effect it has on the rest of the staff. You don't have to shift pitchers around in the org to cover for starts, and you can line up your relievers more optimally, and limit usage (and reduce risk you have to tap into lesser options to cover).

 

And that's part of the reason I like Buehrle and Dickey being around ... despite the fact that Dickey might be a bit of a disappointment, and Buehrle's too costly ... they provide those innings (and it's why I liked the signings of guys like Guthrie and Vargas when everyone was poo poo'ing them). If Hutch can be another one of those guys ... just younger and cheaper ... then you go out and get yet another of those types and you slot in a youngster with promise and you have a playoff worthy rotation (even if you lack the big arms you'd like to have in the postseason), which makes fielding a decent bullpen much more manageable.

 

Despite their 2013 success, I never really liked the Jays pen. Didn't think they could continue on.

 

This is why I am against moving Buehrle or Dickey (not that I expect either to get moved). Sure Buehrle makes more than he should, but as you stated the positive effect he has on the rest of the pitching staff cannot be undersold. To be honest, I like the Jays squad heading into 2015. We have a good mix of inning eaters, young arms, and offensive talent. This team has some serious deficiencies, but it can be fixed and I expect at least a couple to be worked out. We also have some contracts playing out their final years, so if we tank there are plenty of movable pieces to get this team in a better position for future years.

[Chappy]

I thank you for this. It was my impression that the rotation was at least decent this past season. I was really just pointing out to Chappy that one cannot accuse AA of not trying to address the starting rotation because quite clearly, he's used up quite a bit of resources trying to improve it since the end of the 2012 season. Heck even during the 2012 season when he went out and got Happ.

 

You realize I was joking about AA right? But I do stand by the notion that a strong rotation should lead to a better BP.

[Inklink]

See what worked the year before and do the exact opposite.

[ElNik2013]

You realize I was joking about AA right? But I do stand by the notion that a strong rotation should lead to a better BP.

 

 

Hard to tell when you mix in humour with a serious opinion or notion.

 

All clear now though.

[Chappy]

Hard to tell when you mix in humour with a serious opinion or notion.

 

All clear now though.

 

Anytime someone mentions AA on this board there is probably something humorous involved.

[Jimcanuck]

Try to find a couple more Cecils

 

Failed starters that can be moved to the bullpen and get a velocity uptick from short outings

 

I guess the Jays tried it with McGowan in 2014 and that didn't work out

 

Drabek was pitching out of the bullpen late season and there's a guy that could be dominant in short outings

[Atothe]

Try to find a couple more Cecils

 

Failed starters that can be moved to the bullpen and get a velocity uptick from short outings

 

I guess the Jays tried it with McGowan in 2014 and that didn't work out

 

Drabek was pitching out of the bullpen late season and there's a guy that could be dominant in short outings

 

But was he really?

[Jimcanuck]

But was he really?

 

No. That's why the 'could be'. He has the stuff, hard with movement.

[guylaroche5]

Jays fired the bullpen coach. There is our first scapegoat and step one on building a better bullpen!!

 

Alex with money to spend (presumably) and a huge hole in the bullpen scares he crap out of me. k-Rod will definitely be closer next season, and at $5M per.

 

lmao, the goat has been firmly set into place. i can't wait for us to blow our load on relievers and have kawasaki, goins, pillar, and gose playing regularly