Offseason roster thread 2014

[G-Snarls]

On a related note, Dickey has been good enough that his 12M for next year looks pretty good right now too.

 

Again, if the deal was right I'd trade Dickey or Buerhle but I don't feel like he HAS to trade either right now.

[G-Snarls]

GM's value pitcher health so much that I think many teams would happily take Buerhle at 1 year 18M. When did he last miss a start?

[G-Snarls]

Say, anyone feel like extending Lawrie now at a significant health-driven discount would be a brilliant play? Or are we honestly worried that he'll never play a full season is his life??

[Vincent]

On a related note, Dickey has been good enough that his 12M for next year looks pretty good right now too.

 

Again, if the deal was right I'd trade Dickey or Buerhle but I don't feel like he HAS to trade either right now.

 

$12M for less than average starter, hmm...

[BTS]

$12M for less than average starter, hmm...

 

Dickey is an above-average starter without accounting for the knuckleball effect. He's easily worth $12 million.

[G-Snarls]

$12M for less than average starter, hmm...

 

Will be 2 WAR by the end of the season. We like to complain about him but that's worth 12M.

[BTS]

Will be 2 WAR by the end of the season. We like to complain about him but that's worth 12M.

 

And that's based on his FIP. His ERA is lower, and like Buehrle, it's a skill he has.

[G-Snarls]

Honestly the only contracts I hate for 2015 are Reyes and Romero and it's the last year for slick Rick.

[Vincent]

Dickey is an above-average starter without accounting for the knuckleball effect. He's easily worth $12 million.

 

AL starters, 2014

 

Avg ERA: 3.64

Avg FIP: 3.64

Avg xFIP: 3.74

 

Dickey, 2014

 

ERA: 3.94

FIP: 4.39

xFIP: 4.12

 

Cool story bro, tell me more.

 

But but it's da AL East!

[z3r0s]

Honestly the only contracts I hate for 2015 are Reyes and Romero and it's the last year for slick Rick.

 

I know people like complaining about Reyes, but its not like he is a horrible value at the moment (likely will be by the end of the contract when he is 35).

The guy will make 3 WAR by seasons end. Is not a good, but pretty much average defensive SS (ATM).

Depends how much you think a win is worth, but it only has to be 7.5M-ish.

 

Not a bundle of surplus value, but I don't hate the contract... for 2015 that is.

[G-Snarls]

And of course not every contract has to provide value. You have to fill holes and sometimes you overpay. You can make up for it over the rest if the roster of course.

 

I can't wait to see how much surplus value we can wring out of Stroman Hutch Sanchez Norris Lawrie and Pompey or Gose during their pre-arbitration years.

 

I know all 4 of those starters aren't going to pan out, but even if 2-3 do...

[Deadpool]

And of course not every contract has to provide value. You have to fill holes and sometimes you overpay. You can make up for it over the rest if the roster of course.

 

I can't wait to see how much surplus value we can wring out of Stroman Hutch Sanchez Norris Lawrie and Pompey or Gose during their pre-arbitration years.

 

I know all 4 of those starters aren't going to pan out, but even if 2-3 do...

 

A Reyes move to second... Oh man, what a difference that would make...

[BTS]

AL starters, 2014

 

Avg ERA: 3.64

Avg FIP: 3.64

Avg xFIP: 3.74

 

Dickey, 2014

 

ERA: 3.94

FIP: 4.39

xFIP: 4.12

 

Cool story bro, tell me more.

 

But but it's da AL East!

 

AL starters 2014: 3.99 ERA

Dickey = 3.94 ERA

 

Account for his home park + high number of innings pitched + Dickey effect = above-average starter.

[burlingtonbandit]

AL starters, 2014

 

Avg ERA: 3.64

Avg FIP: 3.64

Avg xFIP: 3.74

 

Dickey, 2014

 

ERA: 3.94

FIP: 4.39

xFIP: 4.12

 

Cool story bro, tell me more.

 

But but it's da AL East!

 

He also makes Stroman a lot better when he pitches behind him to the same team. You can add about a win over the course of the season for the knuckleball effect. Getting around 2.5-3 wins for 12 Million is pretty good value. The only negative is you do have to carry Thole who is terrible.

[Vincent]

AL starters 2014: 3.99 ERA

Dickey = 3.94 ERA

 

Account for his home park + high number of innings pitched + Dickey effect = above-average starter.

 

Your numbers must include unqualified IP. Qualified ERA = 3.6

[BTS]

Your numbers must include unqualified IP. Qualified ERA = 3.6

 

An above-average qualified starter and above-average starter are two different things.

[Vincent]

An above-average qualified starter and above-average starter are two different things.

 

Yes.

[RealAccountant]

On a related note, Dickey has been good enough that his 12M for next year looks pretty good right now too.

 

Again, if the deal was right I'd trade Dickey or Buerhle but I don't feel like he HAS to trade either right now.

 

I would if I knew the money could be used to keep Melky if not I'd stick with Burley

[burlingtonbandit]

I think people are overestimating how much Melky gets in the offseason especially in the media. Iv heard guys on PTS throw around Choo money which is not going to happen. Choo was coming off a 5 win season and had a track record. Melky will have the QO and the steroid past will limit his market. I can see him getting 4/65 but not much higher than that.

[G-Snarls]

I would if I knew the money could be used to keep Melky if not I'd stick with Burley

 

Melky was what, 8M this year? And Colby (7M) should be gone and replaced with 2 guys at league minimum (1.1M total). Should be no problem upping Melky to 12-13M for a few years even without shedding any other salary.

Edited September 5, 2014 by G-Snarls

[RealAccountant]

I think people are overestimating how much Melky gets in the offseason especially in the media. Iv heard guys on PTS throw around Choo money which is not going to happen. Choo was coming off a 5 win season and had a track record. Melky will have the QO and the steroid past will limit his market. I can see him getting 4/65 but not much higher than that.

 

Melky has also has had substance issues.

[BTS]

Why the f*** would you exclude unqualified IP for league average?

 

This is about as mad as I've seen you, lol.

[glory]

I honestly think the Jays can bring the entire rotation back as is and be good enough to contend next season. It's the offense, pen, and defense that needs work.

[burlingtonbandit]

Funny that no one ever mentions JA Happ. If you are going into the season with JA Happ in the rotation and you trade Buehrle along with 5 million you may as well keep Buehrle and get rid of Happ. Does he have any trade value with the option being picked up at 6.7? What would he even get on the open market, 2/15?

[GD]

If Buehrle's FIP matched his ERA he'd have a higher fWAR and nobody would have a problem with his salary.

 

And that's based on his FIP. His ERA is lower, and like Buehrle, it's a skill he has.

 

FDP wins: Difference between RA9-WAR and WAR

Dickey FDP-wins: 0.0

Buehrle FDP-wins: 0.1

 

Meh

[saskjayfan]

All in favor for pitcher defense being included in WAR raise your hand.

 

this WAR seems a bit sketchy...maybe we should just ignore it all together.

[GD]

this WAR seems a bit sketchy...maybe we should just ignore it all together.

 

You're so obvious that you're not even worth it

[saskjayfan]

You're so obvious that you're not even worth it

 

lol...and yet you felt the need to make that post. It was a joke.

[BTS]

FDP wins: Difference between RA9-WAR and WAR

Dickey FDP-wins: 0.0

Buehrle FDP-wins: 0.1

 

Meh

 

I don't understand where these numbers come from, but over his career Buehrle's ERA is a third of a run less than his FIP, which is the better part of a win over a full season. Same deal with Dickey. They're both legitimately more valuable than their fWAR.

[GD]

I don't understand where these numbers come from, but over his career Buehrle's ERA is a third of a run less than his FIP, which is the better part of a win over a full season. Same deal with Dickey. They're both legitimately more valuable than their fWAR.

 

I'm using this season

 

The difference between their ERA and FIP have been negligible in terms of WAR this year