Extensions for Hutchison and Stroman?

[TDotttt2005]

Was thinking about this recently. The Jays have a LOT of salary coming off of the books the next few years, with only Reyes' $22mil guaranteed past 2015. Assuming Bautista and EEs' options are picked up, we're at $46 mil payroll + a few more mil for buyouts in 2016. While that flexibility is great (albeit not as great in a non-capped league), theres a lot of uncertainty. Would it be advantageous to sign Hutch and Stroman to Chris Archer - Type "team friendly" deals that give the team cost certainty through their Arbitration years and a Free agent year or 2. If they would accept such a deal, granted, big if, the Jays would pay a little more than they would in the near-term years, but it would help us a lot down the road, when it seems we'll have to be looking at the free agency market to fill holes.

 

Flip side. The Ricky Romero and Morrow contracts, while thought to be "team friendly" at the time have not worked out for the team at all. Also, The Policy of 5-year contracts term max would preclude a deal that would be advantageous to both sides, since the Jays couldnt take the contract into a free-agent year. Not getting that value, they'd have to bring down the near-term premium to the ML min salary they'd offer in the pre-arb years that the player would value in such a deal.

 

Thoughts?

[shortstop]

yeah, I can see AA being gun shy after how those 2 contracts turned out...

 

and with a much larger payroll then say the Rays, AA can be patient and wait & see...don't think he's shy - if a guy performs, he'll get paid, if he doesn't (ie. Rasmus), comfortable letting a player walk...

 

AA uses the words "get more information" all the time...

 

with Hutch & Stro, the question is not talent imo but durability

[KingKat]

Was thinking about this recently. The Jays have a LOT of salary coming off of the books the next few years, with only Reyes' $22mil guaranteed past 2015. Assuming Bautista and EEs' options are picked up, we're at $46 mil payroll + a few more mil for buyouts in 2016. While that flexibility is great (albeit not as great in a non-capped league), theres a lot of uncertainty. Would it be advantageous to sign Hutch and Stroman to Chris Archer - Type "team friendly" deals that give the team cost certainty through their Arbitration years and a Free agent year or 2. If they would accept such a deal, granted, big if, the Jays would pay a little more than they would in the near-term years, but it would help us a lot down the road, when it seems we'll have to be looking at the free agency market to fill holes.

 

Flip side. The Ricky Romero and Morrow contracts, while thought to be "team friendly" at the time have not worked out for the team at all. Also, The Policy of 5-year contracts term max would preclude a deal that would be advantageous to both sides, since the Jays couldnt take the contract into a free-agent year, bringing down the near-term premium to the ML min salary, that the player would value in such a deal.

 

Thoughts?

 

I think the Jays are not big fans of extensions any more. There's a certain school of thought that goes that free agent contracts are almost always player friendly and extensions are team friendly and that's obviously simplistic. A team like the Blue Jays that never doles out free agent contracts has still gotten burned by bad contracts, some were acquired by trade but many were extensions (most dramatically Vernon Wells). In any case, it seems like the Blue Jays are no longer keen on extensions. There's been no talk of extensions for Lawrie, Rasmus or Melky. The team kind of seems like they're done with them. I think the last major extension was Encarnacion and he's almost the definition of a special case.

[HERPDERP]

Hutch has done nothing to deserve an extension.

 

I would prioritize Lawrie first before considering those two.

[BTS]

Awful idea to extend pitchers multiple years before they hit arb.

[Angrioter]

That's not the Jays FO approach.

 

Lawrie still waiting for his extension.

[KingKat]

Awful idea to extend pitchers multiple years before they hit arb.

 

True and thanks to Romero, I don't have much doubt at all that the lesson has been learned.

[G-Snarls]

AA won't even consider extending these two, and that's the right decision even if one or the other becomes expensive in later years. Too much risk.

 

Lawrie OTOH...

[KingKat]

Stroman seems like a terrible candidate for an extension anyways. He's a guy you ride for whatever years of control you have and then move on. If he hits the wall à la Kazmir or Tom Gordon or Tim Lincecum, let someone else deal with it. I mean I hope for his sake that doesn't happen and that he's Pedro 2.0 or something but why take any risk? Taking what you can get from the control you already have is the smart play.

[Angrioter]

Stroman seems like a terrible candidate for an extension anyways. He's a guy you ride for whatever years of control you have and then move on. If he hits the wall à la Kazmir or Tom Gordon or Tim Lincecum, let someone else deal with it. I mean I hope for his sake that doesn't happen and that he's Pedro 2.0 or something but why take any risk? Taking what you can get from the control you have is the smart play.

 

In 2 or 3 years, Stroman could be another man on the bullpen; he's too short (5'2"). Extend Sanchez (6'9")!!

[TwistedLogic]

In 2 or 3 years, Stroman could be another man on the bullpen; he's too short (5'2"). Extend Sanchez (6'9")!!

 

lol, you're joking right?

[HERPDERP]

True and thanks to Romero, I don't have much doubt at all that the lesson has been learned.

 

The Romero extension was good at the time and in the years after that. No one knew that he would go fully derp.

[KingKat]

The Romero extension was good at the time and in the years after that. No one knew that he would go fully derp.

 

No of course no one knew that but Romero illustrates the risk you take when you extend a pitcher.

[CHRIS]

I don't think these types of moves are as necessary for this organization as compared to Tampa Bay; i.e., the Jays have greater payroll flexibility.

 

I think I'd rather make sure a guy pans out (as much as you can) and pay him more in his free agent years, than try to guess and be stuck with a multi-year commitment to a guy who flops. Perhaps you're creating a larger overall payroll, but you're also likely getting more bang for your buck.

[GD]

lol, you're joking right?

 

Is Ang ever not joking? lol

[BTS]

The Romero extension was good at the time and in the years after that. No one knew that he would go fully derp.

 

The Romero extension was absolutely unnecessary at the time, and benefitted the team in no way whatsoever. Know one knew he would become a pumpkin, but that risk is exactly why you don't commit to a pitcher if you don't have to.

[TwistedLogic]

No of course no one knew that but Romero illustrates the risk you take when you extend a pitcher.

 

What risk? Romero was always a f***ing turd, he was hideously overrated, and the shock people had over him crashing like he did was baffling to me. Even then, his contract isn't franchise crippling or anything.

 

Also in regards to your previous post, I have absolutely no idea why you think the Jays dislike extensions or don't have a strong record with them, but they've very successfully extended Bautista, Encarnacion, Escobar, Janssen, etc, and taken good, safe risks on guys like Morrow and Lind. The contracts that haven't exactly worked out have not hamstrung them in a significant way, and the ones that have worked have been among the top bargains in the game for several years now. For the people that think the Jays are paranoid of extensions or whatever this is, when was the last time the Jays let a very good or even significant player walk away in free agency? I mean I know there was a ton of idiotic rage over Johnson last offseason, but I'm talking about a real free agent here.

[TwistedLogic]

The Romero extension was absolutely unnecessary at the time, and benefitted the team in no way whatsoever. Know one knew he would become a pumpkin, but that risk is exactly why you don't commit to a pitcher if you don't have to.

 

Raising my hand here.

 

I always thought that everything about him screamed "mediocre". It's precisely why I hate when people jizz over pitchers like Ubaldo and Hellickson. The amount of hard-ons for guys like that is retarded.

 

The fact that they gave Hellickson RoY just makes it so much worse.

[GD]

He posted a 91 xFIP- on average in his first three years. That's pretty solid, well above (below? better than?) average.

[HERPDERP]

Ugh so many second guessers here. If you don't want to man-up, then at least don't make it so freaking obvious.

[KingKat]

What risk? Romero was always a f***ing turd, he was hideously overrated, and the shock people had over him crashing like he did was baffling to me. Even then, his contract isn't franchise crippling or anything.

 

Also in regards to your previous post, I have absolutely no idea why you think the Jays dislike extensions or don't have a strong record with them, but they've very successfully extended Bautista, Encarnacion, Escobar, Janssen, etc, and taken good, safe risks on guys like Morrow and Lind. The contracts that haven't exactly worked out have not hamstrung them in a significant way, and the ones that have worked have been among the top bargains in the game for several years now. For the people that think the Jays are paranoid of extensions or whatever this is, when was the last time the Jays let a very good or even significant player walk away in free agency? I mean I know there was a ton of idiotic rage over Johnson last offseason, but I'm talking about a real free agent here.

 

It's just about the ones that walk away, it's also about the ones that should have (Wells). That beind said, I get your point. The Jays generally extend players when they get close to free agency and they will probably continue to do it as long as the contracts are not of the Vernon Wells scale. On the other hand, what I think the Jays won't be doing anymore is the Lind and Romero type deals where the player is far away from free agency. That's what we're seing right now with Lawrie.

[burlingtonbandit]

I agree with some posters, no need to extend pitchers in their rookie contracts. Pitchers carry a lot of risk and even the team friendly deals can fail with just one one injury. Look at Matt Moore with that really team friendly deal at the time everyone called a steal. He could come back and never be the same after TJS and actually not be worth the contract.

 

The Blue Jays have done a great job at signing their position players to contracts in the AA timeline. Bautista, EE, Escobar, Melky have all been great deals with Navarro being the worse probably and that was only 8 million anyways.

[G-Snarls]

In 2 or 3 years, Stroman could be another man on the bullpen; he's too short (5'2"). Extend Sanchez (6'9")!!

 

How old is David Ortiz, Mr Hyperbole?

[TBJ12]

Navarro being the worse probably and that was only 8 million anyways.

 

No chance in hell that's the worst contract of AA's tenure.

[Angrioter]

How old is David Ortiz, Mr Hyperbole?

 

David Ortiz pics are in black and white #OldAsShit

[KingKat]

Look at Matt Moore with that really team friendly deal at the time everyone called a steal. He could come back and never be the same after TJS and actually not be worth the contract.

 

 

Conversely, you can look at Tim Lincecum. The Giants went year to year with him and they ended up giving him a ton of money in arbitration but by the time the years of control were up, he wasn't the same pitcher anymore and he wasn't commanding the kind of money it would have cost to lock him up earlier. There's something to be said for paying more in the short term to avoid the risk of a long term contract. This looks like the route the Jays are taking with Lawrie, for one, and as Moogy pointed out, his troubles staying on the field have vindicated the patient approach the Jays have taken. A couple of years ago, there were some fans just screaming for the team to lock Lawrie up. If that had happened, we would probably be asking ourselves today if it was really worth it because frankly he hasn't done a whole lot in recent years to justify an extension.

[Jimcanuck]

What risk? Romero was always a f***ing turd, he was hideously overrated, and the shock people had over him crashing like he did was baffling to me. Even then, his contract isn't franchise crippling or anything.

 

 

Hindsight is always 20/20

[burlingtonbandit]

No chance in hell that's the worst contract of AA's tenure.

 

I was talking about position players. Which one is worse? You could argue Arencibia but that is more keeping him vs his contract.

[KingKat]

No chance in hell that's the worst contract of AA's tenure.

 

Maybe his worst free agent contract but it certainly doesn't compare to picking up the Reyes contract via trade. As far as free agent contracts go, the Melky contract is pretty bad but mostly because of last year's completely unforeseen implosion which can't really be pinned on AA. The Maicer contract was pretty terrible especially when you consider how much better off the Jays would be if they had just went with Aviles and not signed Maicer and made that disaster of a trade with Cleveland.

[TBJ12]

I was talking about position players. Which one is worse? You could argue Arencibia but that is more keeping him vs his contract.

 

Izturis deal was a flop.